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Iran continued to remain in the throes of protests and increased acts of defiance by the celebrities and common people alike pursuant to the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police for alleged inappropriate clothing. Threats and time lines to stop the protests were given by the authorities, terming these as externally induced and involving the rioting and deaths of policemen and protesters alike, but in vain. Various internal domestic problems like impact of pandemic, sanctions, unemployment and general societal distress and frustrations have combined to add fuel to fire and given further vent to the movement that is targeting the Islamic leadership including the Ayatollah asking them to go. Meanwhile, the attacks and killing of the pilgrims at the holy shrine of Shiraz accentuated the problem even more. More repression may lead to more dissent. Often the question is being asked whether this is the ‘Arab Spring’ moment for the Islamic Republic.

Iranian drones, used by Russia caused their own controversy between Kiev and Tehran even as Tehran maintains that these drones were provided before the war started.

Amidst most of the chaos in the region another rapprochement was the US brokered maritime demarcation and deal between arch enemies Lebanon and Israel as Beirut battles with its economic and political woes. Even the Hezbollah did not object to the deal as it would accrue economic benefits to the Lebanese people as the Lebanese government underplayed it not as normalisation of bilateral relations due to ongoing Israeli-Palestine conflict. US remains the guarantor for the Deal that is being perceived as Biden Administration’s extension of the Abraham Accords.

Finally, the jinx was broken and Iraq had its new President who appointed Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as the Prime Minister.

PM Modi spoke to Amir of Qatar and tweeted ‘In his tweet message, the Prime Minister said – “Was happy to speak with HH Amir @Tamim Bin Hamad of Qatar. Thanked him for his gracious Diwali greetings, and conveyed best wishes for a successful @FIFAWorldCup in Qatar. We agreed to jointly celebrate 50 yrs of India-Qatar diplomatic relations in 2023.” The detention of Indian sailors in Qatar remained an issue.

India strongly condemned the terror attack at the Shah-e-Cherag shrine in Shiraz, Iran extending deep condolences to the families of the victims and the people of Iran underscoring that this heinous attack is another reminder that terrorism continues to pose one of the biggest and critical threat to international peace and security and the need of the hour is for countries of the world to unite and combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

At the invitation of H.E. Sameh Hassan Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, paid his first ever official visit to the Arab Republic of Egypt from 15-16 October 2022. While the entire gamut of bilateral and regional issues was discussed the two sides underlined that India and Egypt traditionally enjoy warm and friendly relations underpinned by historical and cultural linkages. Both countries are celebrating 75 years of establishment of diplomatic relations this year. Egypt has been invited as a ‘Guest Country’ during India’s Presidency of G-20 in 2022-23. They also held discussions on regional and global issues including COP 27 hosted by Egypt. Egypt bilateral trade touched a record high at US$ 7.26 billion during FY 2021-22. Indian investment in Egypt exceeds US$ 3.15 billion. Over 50 Indian companies are actively present in Egypt in a range of sectors like manufacturing, chemicals, energy, infrastructure, retail etc. (MEA press release) Recently however, a new agreement was signed in the private sector for nearly $ 8bn to develop cooperation in Hydrogen sector.

On his second visit, Minister of State for External Affairs and Parliamentary Affairs V. Muraleedharan paid an official visit to the Sultanate of Oman on 03-04 October 2022 – interaction is part of the periodic exchange of high level visits to reinforce the shared commitment to ever-growing relationship between India and Oman.

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Protests in Iran

The protest in Iran has continued throughout October demanding social reforms; upliftment of the status of women and regime change. The protest began since mid-September after the death of 22 year old Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini on 16 September by the Morality Police. The ill-treatment and death at the hands of Iranian authorities have raised questions about the status of women in Iranian society and day to day harassment stemming from regressive rules of public conduct.

The Iranian authorities in order to quell the protest have resorted to coercive measures; mass arrests of demonstrators and shootings. The security forces have also moved injured protestors from hospitals to detention facilities and declined to release the bodies to their families. In Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Balochistan province, demonstrators raised slogans calling for the death of the “dictator” implying Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Basij militia. The UN Human Rights Office have criticised Iranian government for the treatment of detained protestors and called for their early release as well as the bodies of the dead protestors.

In light of the nationwide protests, Iranian government blacklisted 12 European Union (EU) officials and eight organisations for reportedly inciting terrorism supporting terrorist groups, propagating violence that led to riots and violation of human rights. The sanctions could lead to ban on entry, visa and confiscation of any assets within Iran. Among the prominent groups facing sanction are the Friends of Free Iran; the International Committee in Search of Justice; Stop the Bomb as well as two informal groups in the European parliament.

Attack on holy shrine in Shiraz

On 26 October, three Islamic State (IS) operatives entered Shah Cheragh Shrine in Shiraz and killed 15 people and injured 40 others. Shiraz is one of most visited cities in Iran for pilgrimage and tourism. The city was attacked earlier in April 2008 after bomb blast killed 14 people. The attack occurred during the ongoing protest in Iran.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in his public speeches attempted to link the protests with the shrine attack. Raisi noted that “the intention of the enemy is to disrupt the country’s progress, and then these riots pave the ground for terrorist acts”. Hossein Salami, the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that “the fire revenge of people of Iran will finally catch up with them and punish them for their shameful deeds”.

IRGC Seizes Foreign Vessel

Iran’s IRGC on 31 October seized the crew and cargo of a foreign vessel transporting 11 million litres or 2.9 million gallons of smuggle fuel. Iranian authorities without disclosing the identity and nationality of the sailors have charged penalty up to 10 times the value of the captured cargo as well as jail sentences. IRGC has increased alert level to curb smuggling in Iran’s southern waters. In September, IRGC captured vessel carrying 757,000 litres or 200,000 gallons of fuel. Smuggling of oil from Iran is lucrative due to allocation of fuel subsidies and cheap currency.

Ukraine Foreign Minister held phone discussion with Iranian counterpart

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba held phone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on 29 October and appealed to Tehran to stop sending drones to Russia. Ukrainian officials and western allies have accused Iran of providing Shahed-136 attack drones utilised to destroy Ukrainian energy infrastructure causing power cuts in several cities. France, Germany and Britain wrote joint letter calling for a UN enquiry to the use of drones. The use of drones according to the European states breached the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Iran denied sending weapons to Russia and claimed that exchange of arms stopped during the war with Ukraine. The Iranian Foreign Minister also suggested to the European Union (EU) Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell that Iran is willing to participate in the investigation of drones used in Ukraine. Reportedly, on 28 October, Iranians living in Ukraine held protest in Kyiv against Iranian government for providing weapons to Russia.

Israel-Lebanon sign Historic Maritime Deal

Israel and Lebanon signed agreement brokered by the US on 27 October to agree on the maritime boundary for the first time. It has opened the possibility for both states to conduct offshore energy exploration in eastern Mediterranean Sea. Lebanon officially does not recognise Israel. President Michel Aoun signed a letter and submitted to the US officials at Naqoura border point in South Lebanon. Lebanon’s top negotiator Elias Bou Saab said that the deal that ended the long running maritime border dispute marked beginning of a new era. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the deal as political achievement stating that “it is not every day that an enemy state recognises the State of Israel, in a written agreement in front of the entire international community”. Lebanese President Aoun denied that the agreement is indication of normalisation of ties with the Jewish state calling the demarcation of the southern maritime border as technical work and does not have any political implications.

The agreement was brokered after months of indirect talks mediated by the US Envoy for Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein. The US President Joe Biden said that the agreement will secure the interests of both states and offers a stage for a more stable and prosperous region. Israel began gas production at Karish, an offshore field ahead of the agreement. Reportedly, Qatar’s state-owned Qatar Energy has reached out to the Lebanese government to take control of 30 percent stake in offshore exploration block. Lebanese government also signed an agreement with France’s Total Energies to obtain majority control of the said block. The initial exploration licence was offered to total Energies, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek. In September, Novatek exited from the three part consortium.

New Government in Iraq

Iraqi parliament dominated by Iran-backed Coordination Framework alliance after one year since national election in October 2021 approved a new President, Prime Minister and cabinet. The political situation in Iraq remained in a state of flux due to the inability of the political parties to resolve their differences and approve a new government. The Sadrist bloc led by Muqtada Al-Sadr emerged as winner securing 73 seats in the 329 seat parliament. The Sadrist bloc attempted to deviate from the traditional norm of forming national consensus government with Shiite parties to appoint the Prime Minister, reserved for members of the Shiite community. The attempts by the Save the Homeland coalition under Sadrists; Kurdish Democratic Party and Sunni parties was repeatedly thwarted by Iran backed Coordination Framework composed of the Shiite parties including Fatah Alliance; Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition and their Kurdish and Sunni allies.

The Sadrist members of parliament after failure to form government resigned in June. The supporters of the Sadrist movement in order to halt the Iran backed parties to form government stormed the parliament and government buildings in August. The Sadrists clashed with supporters of Iran backed parties leading to at least 30 deaths in the last week of August. The political situation remained volatile and eventually on 13 October, the Coordination Framework led parliament elected Abdul Latif Rashid as the new President who appointed Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. On 27 October, the government of Prime Minister Al-Sudani received the confidence of the parliament with a majority of 253 MPs voted to appoint 21 ministers. The political future of the oil rich Arab state continues to remain precarious further complicated by the influence of external actors especially Iran and the US.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

October has been a violent month in Palestine due to remarkable uptick in number of violent clashes. In fact, from January to October 2022, more than 80 Palestinians including fighters and civilians were killed and at least 20 of them were minors. Israeli soldiers killed four Palestinian teenagers on 7 October in West Bank. In East Jerusalem, Israeli soldier, Noa Lazar was killed by Palestinian fighters on 8 October. On 11 October, Palestinians belonging to the Lion’s Den group killed one moreIsraeli soldier in Shavei Shomron settlement in occupied West Bank. Israeli forces on 14 October killed three Palestinians, two belonging to the Jenin Brigade and one member of Fatah Alliance in separate incidents. On 25 October, Israeli forces killed six Palestinians and injured 21 others during raids near Nablus. Israeli forces on 28 Octobershot dead two Palestinians at a military checkpoint near Nablus. According to Israel Defence Forces (IDF), the clash started after the two individuals started shooting at security forces in Hawara checkpoint. Both live in Askar refugee camp outside Nablus and worked for the Palestinian Authority (PA)’s Civil Defence department. The PA Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh called the two men as martyrs and among the finest officers and ranks of the Civil Defence and “pioneers of national, organizational and societal work in the Askar refugee camp”. Shtayyeh called the act as organised and racist state terrorism.

On 30 September, a Palestinian individual, Mohammad al-Jaabari killed one 49 year old Israeli settler, Ronen Hanania and injured four others at a checkpoint near the Kiryat Arba settlement in Hebron raising tensions in the occupied territories. The Palestinian man was killed by Israeli security forces. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.

In midst of conflict escalation and military crackdown in occupied territories, Israeli President Issac Herzog met with the US President Joe Biden. Both states avoided mentioning Palestine and the discussion largely focussed on security threat emanating from Iran especially, Iran’s coercive tactics to quell protests; advancement in nuclear programme; supply of lethal weapons to Russia used in killing citizens. The White House reportedly mentioned about the importance of taking steps to de-escalate the security situation in the West Bank.

Saudi Firms emerge as Second Largest Investor in Twitter

Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Company (KHC) along with Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal’s private office will maintain their ownership of Twitter shares valued at US$ 1.89 billion after company takeover by tech billionaire Elon Musk. The Saudi firms jointly have emerged as the second largest investors in Twitter. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund owns 16.9 percent share in KHC founded by Bin Talal. The people in Saudi Arabia extensively use the social media platform and in fact it is the eighth largest state in terms of Twitter users.

Musk is seeking to restructure the revenue model by charging money for blue tick Twitter users. Moreover, since the takeover, the scale of hate speeches especially in the US has seen an uptick.

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Suffering from fury of floods and failings of the economy and fast depleting forex reserves, Islamabad once again reached out to the rich Gulf States who even obliged to bail them out once again. Cryptically, PM Shehbaz Sharif mentioned that whenever they call on friends it is presumed that it is for some help. IMF has already approved $1.2 bn and other tranche is in the pipeline subject to firm guarantees from its reliable creditors to the tune of $ 4bn. The benefactors in Qatar ($ 3bn); Saudi Arabia ($ 1.5bn); UAE ($1bn) conceded during the visit of PM Shehbaz Sharif to Doha on August (24) and that of Army Chief General Bajwa to UAE (August 16) led to averting the crisis in Pakistan partially. General Bajwa was even conferred by UAE’s second highest order recognising his efforts to consolidate bilateral cooperation. It was also reported that deal with Qatar included stationing of Pakistani troops for security during the FIFA world cup. Pakistan and Turkey Trade Ministers also signed a trade facilitation deal.

While the indirect discussions between Tehran and Washington on JCPOA nuclear deal continued to linger there was some hope that there could be positive development given the so called “Final Text’ and serious EV efforts even as Israeli leadership continued to flag its concerns against the deal. But in vain as both sides have reverted to warnings and change in reportedly agreed goal posts and US’s fresh sanctions were seen as non-sincerity by Tehran. It was also reported that Tehran‘s Foreign Minister had conveyed some EU proposal to Moscow in the context of Russia-Ukraine War. Tehran, which displayed its drone power at home, is said to have supplied a significant number to the Russians. In turn Russians launched an Iranian satellite ‘Omar Khayyam’.

In order to assuage some security concerns of the UAE and Saudi Arabia especially in the wake of Houthi’s drone and projectile attacks , President Biden approved the sale of THAAD and Patriot batteries at a total price of over $ 5bn. Congress’s approval is awaited. Meanwhile UAE and Iran decided to exchange Ambassadors and upgrade ties.

In the wake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, UAE Foreign office issued a statement reiterating ‘One China Principle’ and support for China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while urging diplomatic dialogue for regional and international stability.

Turkey continued with its rapprochement and normalization efforts in the region. During his Sochi Summit meeting with President Putin, the Turkish President agreed to talks with Syrian President Saddam and supported talks between the opposition and government. Turkey hosts over 3.5 mn Syrian refugees, economy is facing headwinds and some understanding on Kurdish issues has likely been reached with Moscow and Tehran.

Iraq continued to face political instability and public protests and demonstrations due to the inability of the Shia blocs to form a government and appoint a Shia PM due to inadequate and divisive election results. Armed clashes between Saraya Salam militia of Muqtada Al Sadr and Hash al Shabi of the Coordination Network led by former PM Maliki lead to breach of Green Zone and the Parliament building but also to the death of 30 Iraqis and several injured. Eventually, Sadr called his supporters to leave and also decided to leave the politics as some other religious leaders chose to give deference to Iranian leader Khamenei. In the wake to the political instability and violence Interim PM Kadhimi threatened to resign but praised the efforts of Sadr to bring back the calm. Situation remains volatile.

President Erdogan also agreed to raise the bilateral diplomatic relations with Israel to the level of Ambassadors which were downgraded due to Israeli killings of some 60 Palestinians four years ago. Oil and gas transit and tourism as well as the Tel Aviv’s access to Washington via Jewish route and efforts by the Israeli President Herzog appear to have contributed to this development.

On August 2, Kuwait‘s noisy politics witnessed yet another dissolution of the Parliament and fresh elections in the last week of September are expected.

Tunis and Rabat became the latest to rupture diplomatic relations for Tunisia’s support and invitation to SADR (Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic) to attend the 8th Tokyo International conference on African Development (TICAD) during which Japan committed $ 30 bn in developmental assistance for next 3 years.

Militias supporting rival governments in Libya clashed once again breaching the efforts and understandings reached.

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, visited UAE from 31 August – 02 September 2022 to co-chairing the 14th India-UAE Joint Commission Meeting (JCM) and 3rd India-UAE Strategic Dialogue with Foreign Minister of UAE H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. These meetings provided an opportunity to both the Ministers to review the entire spectrum of comprehensive strategic partnership between India and UAE and regional and global developments. He also addressed the UAE young diplomats at the Diplomatic Academy. Both India and UAE are committed to move forward in their partnership in diverse areas, including trade, investment, conventional and renewable energy, food security, health, skill development, education, culture, defence, space, consular issues and people-to-people ties. These areas were also discussed at official levels during the meetings of the Sub-Committees of the JCM held on 23-24 August 2022. India and UAE have also recently signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) as well as the leaders of the two countries attended the first ever I2U2 Summit.

Indian Minister of Ports, shipping and Waterways Shri Sarbananda Sonowal visited Iran and UAE. In Iran he also visited the Chabahar Port especially the Shahid Beheshti port where he handed over six mobile cranes. He also met Vice President Mohammed Mokhber apart from his counterpart. A MoU on mutual recognition of Sea Farers certificate was also signed.

India and Oman completed the joint military exercises Al Najaf IV.

OIC ‘s unwanted and mischievous statement on the 3rd anniversary of revocation of Art 370 was termed as reeking of bigotry by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs further reiterating that Jammu & Kashmir is and will remain an integral and inalienable part of India.

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Pakistan Receives Financial Assistance Package from Gulf States

Pakistan has reached out to the US, China and the Gulf states to secure financial assistance and overcome the dire economic situation facing the state. International Monetary Fund (IMF) while approving an instalment of US$ 1.2 billion has asked Islamabad to provide firm guarantees from its allies to receive additional US$ 4 billion for its external requirements. Pakistan has been in talks with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China to receive assistance. Riyadh has agreed to bail out and help Islamabad to fulfil the conditions by the IMF. Saudi Arabia and IMF discussed the possibility of Pakistan borrowing up to US$ 2.8 billion against Riyadh’s quota of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) after Saudi Arabia’s decision to renew US$ 3 billion deposit at the State Bank of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia also announced investment worth US$ 1 billion in Pakistani economy.

The Pakistani Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa has acted as the interlocutor between the civilian government and Gulf States in seeking financial assistance. He visited Riyadh on 15 August and interacted with the Saudi political leadership. Pakistani Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on 18 August announced that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar would provide US$ 4 billion to bridge gap in foreign reserves. Pakistan has fulfilled one of the conditions of the IMF by lifting ban on luxury or non-essential items.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also visited Qatar on 23 August and met with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Following the visit, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) promised to invest US$ 3 billion to help the state’s economy.

TICAD Conference in Tunis

Tunisia on 27 August hosted the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) launched by Japan to promote growth and security in the African states. The conference was attended by 30 heads of state, representatives of international and regional organisations, business leaders etc. The conference identified the current challenges in terms of economic consequences from the COVID-19 crisis; Russia-Ukraine crisis induced food crisis and climate change which has deeply affected the African states. It emphasised on increasing Japanese investments in the continent especially in the arena of start-ups and food security initiatives. Japan has promised aid worth US$ 30 billion to be delivered over three years for development in African states. Tokyo has promised to provide US$ 130 million in food aid and offer assistance for the production of rice.

The first TICAD summit was hosted by Japan in 1993. The current TICAD conference is co-organised with the United Nations (UN); African Union (AU) and the World Bank. The summits have led to 26 development projects in 20 African states. The eighth TICAD Conference has occurred in the backdrop of China’s Belt and Road initiative and seen as Japan’s challenge to growing Chinese influence.

The selection of Tunis as the conference host has been controversial due to Tunisia’s breakdown in democratic transition after President Kais Saeed suspended the cabinet and the parliament. The Tunisian government also restricted the reporting and information around the summit.

Notably, the representative of the Polisario Front, Brahim Ghali participated in the conference. It prompted angry response from Morocco that controls the Western Sahara region. Rabat reacted by recalling its ambassador to Tunisia and boycotted the event. The Moroccan government clarified that the boycott does not in any way “call into question the commitment of the Kingdom of Morocco to the interests of Africa”.

Israeli Strikes in Gaza

Israeli forces launched three days of pre-emptive airstrikes against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) between 5 and 7 August. The operation codenamed, “Breaking Dawn” was initiated to curb alleged planned rocket attacks by PIJ. IDF launched 147 airstrikes against PIJ targets. PIJ also retaliated by sending around 1100 rockets towards the Israeli territory. In West Bank, Israeli forces arrested PIJ leader Bassam al-Saadi and 20 others. IDF also carried out targeted killing of Tayseer Jabari, a prominent leader of the group. The Israeli operation led to deaths of at least 49 Palestinians including 17 children. The military operation is likely to benefit the Naftali Bennet-Yair Lapid Coalition facing fresh election in November 2022 to quell criticism from Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters about their position of Palestinian insurgency.

Israeli and US Strikes in Syria

In late August, the US forces carried number of operation against Iran backed militias in Syrian territory in the background of the final stage of JCPOA negotiations with Iran. US President Joe Biden justified the killing of four fighters in eastern Syria on 23 August in Deir Az Zor by suggesting that it was necessary to protect its forces from attacks by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). Tehran has denied connection with these groups and demanded the US forces to withdraw from Syria. The US strikes attacked a facility used by these militias for logistics and ammunition storage. The militias have retaliated by launching rocket attacks at two military bases in northeast Syria leading to minor injuries by US service personnel.

Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in late August carried out missile strikes at a large Syrian military facility in Masyaf that housed huge amount of medium-range missiles for Iran backed fighters. IDF’s main target was the arms depot containing around 1000 precision guided medium range missiles. IDF also attacked Aleppo airport on 31 August causing material damage. Israel reportedly targeted the runway and depots that contained missiles provided by Iran. The US Air Force senior official, Lieutenant-General Alexus Grynkewich, noted that they are aware of Israel’s military actions but emphasised that there is no connection between the IDF actions and US airstrikes.

US-Israel Mutual Interests

The US President Joe Biden speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on 31 August reiterated their joint commitment to deter the Islamic Republic of Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The US also reaffirmed its unequivocal support for Israel and its security. The US and Israel in mid-July had signed joint declaration committing to prevent Iran to develop nuclear arsenal. The US noted that all elements of its national power available will be used to deny Iran the ability to arm itself with nuclear weapons. Israel has been a staunch opponent of the 2015 nuclear deal that reopened Iran’s economy after lifting sanctions while reducing uranium enrichment. Israel welcomed the suspension of the nuclear deal by Donald Trump administration. Tel Aviv is cautiously watching the renewed nuclear deal talks after Joe Biden took office in January 2021. It has indicated its intention to take unilateral military and espionage actions against Iranian targets and figures to thwart its nuclear weapons programme.

Palestinian Prisoner on Hunger Strike to be Released

Palestinian prisoner, Khalil Awawdeh held by Israel without charge or trial has suspended his hunger strike that lasted 172 days after eventually receiving the order of release. Awawdeh started his hunger strike shortly after his arrest in December 2021 to protest against administrative detention, a practise used by Israeli law enforcement agencies to detain Palestinian without charge or trial. The detainees are arrested on ‘secret evidence’ without providing proof of accusations and they are prohibited from defending themselves in court. They are held for renewable six month periods that usually lead to years in detention. Israel had initially arrested Awawdeh on suspicion of being an operative of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Awawdeh’s likely release on 2 October has been seen as a legal win by Palestinians living in the occupied territories. A large number of Palestinian youth are currently languishing in Israeli prisons without charge or trial. The European Union (EU) called for the release of the prisoner in late August. Awawdeh will remain in hospital until he has completely recovered.

Turkey and Israel Restore Ties

Turkey and Israel on 17 August agreed to restore full diplomatic ties and both sides agreed to return their ambassadors in the coming months. Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan held conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid. The relations downgraded after both states expelled ambassadors over the killing of 60 Palestinians by Israeli forces on Gaza border to protest against opening of US embassy in Jerusalem in 2018. President Erdogan in the past had called Israel as ‘terrorist state’.

In the context of Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey is trying to reassess its strategic priority by moving closer to its NATO allies and nurturing warm ties with Israel. Ankara at the same time hosted Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas on 23 August and assured that restoring ties with Israel will not weaken Turkey’s support for the Palestinian cause.

Political Unrest in Iraq

Iraq in August witnessed intense turmoil due to the stalemate in forming government by leading political parties. The Sadrist bloc led by influential Shiite cleric, Muqtada Al Sadr emerged as the largest party in the October 2021 parliamentary election winning 73 seats. The Sadrist bloc along with Sunni parties and Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) has attempted to prove its majority and appoint a new President. Muqtada Al Sadr’s rivalry with Iran backed parties such as Fatah Alliance; State of Law etc. working under the umbrella of the Coordination Framework (CF) have prohibited the formation of consensus government approved by all the Shiite parties similar to previous government formation process post elections in 2010; 2014 and 2018.

The Sadrist bloc in early 2022 failed to elect a new President due to lack of parliamentary quorum. The bloc resigned from parliament in June and challenged the CF to form government. According to Iraqi constitution, in case of resignation of any parliamentary member, the candidate with second highest votes could take over the seat. The Iran backed CF along with its allies nominated Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani as new Prime Minister in mid-July. Sadr in response mobilised his supporters to storm the parliament on 27 and 31 July and stall the nomination of Al-Sudani. The Sadrist supporters conducted sit-ins outside the parliament throughout August demanding fresh election. Sadr also sought judicial intervention to dissolve the parliament. The Judiciary however responded by suggesting that it cannot intervene in parliamentary procedures. Sadr has remained adamant over his demand for a fresh election. On 29 August, Sadr frustrated with the political process announced his resignation. The Sadrist supporters carrying out sit-ins outside government buildings clashed with CF supporters leading to at least 30 deaths and 700 injuries. Sadr in order to calm the situation urged his supporters to vacate the Green Zone and condemned violence in all its forms. Currently, the state continues to remain in a state of political limbo due to stubborn position of the leading political parties complicated by ethno-sectarian democratic system.

Renewed Clashes in Libya

The militias backed by Libya’s rival governments clashed in late August killing at least 32 and injuring 159 people. The clashes between rival militias had subsided for around two years since the Berlin Dialogue. The fighting has raised fears about dragging the oil-rich state towards a new civil war. The standoff has placed Tripoli based Government of National Unity under Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and Tobruk based government under Fathi Bashagha backed by Khalifa Haftar at odds towards arriving at a political solution. The Tripoli based government blamed the latest round of conflict on fighters supported by Tobruk that fired a convoy in the capital city. Hamid Dbeibah has accused Bashagha of backing out of talks to resolve the crisis. The Tobruk based politicians have argued that Tripoli based GNU’s mandate has expired. Dbeibah has however assured to hand over power only to an elected government.

Emmanuel Macron’s Visit to Algeria

French President Emmanuel Macron visited Algiers between 25 to 27 August to re-invigorate the ties with the former colony. Algeria recently marked six decades of independence after 132 years of French rule. In the light of Russia-Ukraine conflict, European states are seeking to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and replace with alternative sources including from Algeria. Algeria at the same time intends to establish itself as a major gas producer.

Both sides in the joint declaration “decided to open a new era in laying the foundation for a renewed partnership expressed through a concrete and constructive approach, focussed on future projects and youth”. Macron mentioned that plans to allow additional Algerian students to study in France in 2022. Notably, he also announced the creation of a joint commission of historians to evaluate and examine the colonial period and the war of liberation. Both states discussed about political situation, the Sahel region and Western Sahara.

The relations between both states became sour after Macron questioned the existence of Algeria prior to the French occupation and accused Abdelmadjid Tebboune government of spreading ‘hatred towards France’. France also reduced the number of visas granted to the citizens of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. Algeria responded by accusing France of committing genocide and recalled its ambassador on 2 October 2021. Algeria also prohibited French military aircrafts from using its airspace. The situation has currently normalised and Algeria has re-allowed French aircrafts to reach its military bases in sub-Saharan Africa.

US Reinstates Ambassador to Sudan

In signs of improved relations, the US has sent its first Ambassador to Khartoum after a gap of 25 years. Sudan’s ties with the US were tense during the three decade rule under Omar Al-Bashir. Sudan was listed as state sponsoring terrorism in 1993 and faced widespread sanctions. Reportedly, the founder of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden stayed in Sudan between 1992 and 1996.

The newly appointed US ambassador to Sudan, John Godfrey writing on Twitter hoped to deepen ties between both states and aid Sudanese people’s aspirations to freedom, peace and justice. Sudan following the UAE’s approach normalised relations with Israel that led to removal of number of US sanctions. The return to civilian authority under Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok played a key role in thawing the relations with the US. The democratic transition process in Sudan has reached a roadblock after Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan usurped power in October 2021.

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The region continued to face the pressures of the Russia -Ukraine conflict while trying to help in alleviating the situation. While acting as an interlocutor between Moscow and Kiev, Turkey ( which had refused to be part of sanctions against Moscow) blocked entry of Russian Naval ships through the Black sea in consultation with Russia. Israel too remained engaged with both sides. Not much has been achieved but the sides have been talking online. Egypt and several countries in West Asia continued to face impact of higher food and fuel prices. India and Egypt explored possibility of supplies of Indian wheat.

During the Ramadan month as expected the situation in Jerusalem and at the third holiest mosque the ‘Al Aqsa’ continued to remain tense and could have nearly provoked a war between Israel and Hamas yet again. However, volley of rockets from Gaza and aerial strikes by IDF went on. All major countries urged restraint as the Arab countries including OIC and Arab League as well as the Custodian King Abdullah of Jordan condemned the Israeli excesses at Al Aqsa, while urging early resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue. PM Naftali Bennet, whose parliamentary majority, is hanging in the balance, could ill afford to lose his Arab allies the ‘Raam Party’. Hence, much to consternation of some fundamental Jewish organisations he enforced a ban on the entry of non-Muslims to the Mosque during the Ramadan period. But the problem continued even if receded somewhat.

Winds of rapprochement in the region continued with President Erdogan of Turkey visiting Saudi Arabia where he met his host King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Greater focus was laid on enhancing trade and economic ties which he termed as going to rise to ‘distinguished levels’. Erdogan noted that views were exchanged regarding regional and international issues. Joint steps to develop relations in the next stage were also discussed. He pointed out that the Saudi and Turkish officials discussed means of cooperation in the defence industries, increasing investment and trade, restoring momentum in trade between their countries, removing customs obstacles, and encouraging investments and projects that can be undertaken by Turkish contractors. “We agreed with Saudi Arabia to reactivate the great economic potential through events that bring together investors of the two countries,” President Erdogan emphasised in an interview.

New Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif led a delegation to Saudi Arabia to renew the ties that had taken a hit during his predecessor’s time. He also sought and was promised financial assistance and lines of credit for oil imports as well as assurances of higher investments in the beleaguered economy of Pakistan. On his way back Sharif also visited UAE and met the Crown Prince and other senior officials who also assured of assistance. This was an effort to reset the ties since Sharif has longstanding ties especially with Riyadh.
On April 12, India and France had first ever foreign office consultations on WANA region. The two sides had wide ranging discussions on respective priorities, areas of mutual interest and exchanged views on major issues including the political, security, economic, and trade dimensions of the West Asia and North Africa region.
On March 28-29, 5th India- Bahrain foreign office consultations were held at the Vice Minister level. Apart from consultations with Secretary Dr Ausaf Sayeed , Dr. Shaikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa Undersecretary (Political Affairs), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also met Deputy NSA, Shri Vikram Misri and called on MOS for External Affairs, Shri V. Muraleedharan. They reviewed bilateral, regional and global situation.

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Naftali Bennet’s Ruling Coalition Loses Majority in Israel

In Israel, Prime Minister Naftali Bennet’s 61 member ruling coalition is facing challenge after Member of Knesset (MK) from Yamina party, Idit Silman left the bloc. Silman in her resignation letter mentioned that her key values are inconsistent with current reality and urged to try and form a ‘nationalist, Jewish, Zionist’ government. Notably, the current ruling coalition is comprised of ideologically diverse political groups who are committed to block Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power. Silman’s resignation does not necessarily imply the fall of the ruling coalition since Netanyahu’s Likud party along with its ideological allies do not have the necessary support of at least 61MKs. It however, raises the possibility of Netanyahu’s return to office in case the ruling coalition is further weakened in the near future.

Israeli Raids in Al-Aqsa Mosque

Israeli security forces in deliberate effort to instigate tensions have been conducting near daily raids inside the Al Aqsa Mosque compound attacking Muslim worshippers. Israel is attempting to change the status quo by regularly interfering inside the mosque compound and ensuring passage to orthodox Jewish worshippers. According to the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, around 3,700 Jewish religious nationalists entered the compound to mark the festival of Passover. There is fear among the Palestinians that Israel is seeking to divide the compound and create a space for Jewish worshippers. Israeli government has however denied its intention to divide the compound.

On 29 April, clashes between Israeli forces and worshippers led to 42 injuries. Israel has blamed “rioters” for throwing stones, fireworks and inciting the mob. Al Jazeera has reported that in the last two weeks of April, around 300 Palestinians were injured by the Israeli forces. Israeli raids on the mosque compound and attacks on worshippers have angered Arabs citizens and there were number of protests in Nazareth and Umm-Al-Fahm. Arab League has urged Israel to refrain from taking provocative actions in Al Aqsa compound.

The Al-Aqsa Matryrs’ Brigade claimed responsibility for killing one Jewish guard on 30 April in a West Bank settlement. The militant group claimed that the attack was in response to Israeli raids in Al Aqsa mosque compound. Israeli action in Al Aqsa mosque invited retaliation from militant groups in Gaza that fired rockets into southern Israel. Israel in response conducted strikes on a weapons manufacturing site belonging to Hamas.

Iranians Mark Quds Day

A large number of Iranians came to the streets in Tehran and other major cities to participate in the annual Quds Day. Al-Quds is the Arabic name for Palestine. The Palestinian solidarity day or Quds day was established by first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It is held every year in Iran on the last Friday of the month of Ramadan. President Ebrahim Raisi called the movement as symbol of the unity of the Islamic Ummah that will lead to the ‘destruction of the Zionist regime’ and Quds will be liberated. The Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. (IRGC), Hossein Salami warned Israel that it would face painful and direct response in case of escalation. The Quds day events were stalled for two years due the COVID-19 pandemic. President Raisi earlier on 16 April warned Israel against making even the “smallest movement” against Iran. Raisi made the comments on the occasion of National Army Day.

IS Attack in Syria

Islamic State (IS) fighters on 28 April killed seven and injured four people at Ramadan gathering in Deir Az Zor province. The Iftar dinner gathering was hosted by the US backed Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) leader Nouri Hamish. The frequency of attacks in northeast Syria has increased after the killing of IS leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi in early February 2022. There were reportedly at least 23 attacks in 11 days by IS in April. SDF officials have reported that IS sleeper cells have become highly mobilised in the recent months.

Israel has continued its air raids on Iranian and Hezbollah targets including warehouses, research centres for upgrading missiles and drones located within Syrian territory. On 9 April, Israeli aircrafts attacked in Masyaf city in western Hama province. On 15 April, Israel fired number of missiles towards Syrian military positions near Damascus leading to some material damage. Syrian media reported that some of the missiles were shot down by government air defences. On 27 April, Israel again carried air raids near Damascus killing nine combatants including five Syrian soldiers.

Saudi Arabia-Houthi Truce in Yemen

The UN on 1 April succeeded in brokering a peace deal between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis during the holy month of Ramadan. Houthis in the last few months have improved their strike capability and attacked several Saudi as well as Emirati assets. The latest truce and cessation of hostilities have occurred since the peace talks in 2016. The UN Special Envoy, Hans Grunberg mentioned that the two month truce could be extended if both parties agree. According to the 1 April truce, both sides have accepted to cease all offensive military, air, ground and maritime operations inside Yemen and across its borders. They also agreed to allow fuel ships to enter Hodeidah port and commercial flights to operate in Sanaa airport. The UN and the US are seeking to revive political negotiations, create an atmosphere of permanent ceasefire and improve the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen.

The exiled President of Yemen, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi has resigned and transferred his powers to a new Presidential Council that has been assigned to carry out negotiations with the Houthis to reach permanent ceasefire. Hadi also removed Vice President Al Mohsen Al-Ahmar and delegated his powers to the Presidential Council. The said council chaired by Rashad Al-Alimi consists of eight members including Aydarous al-Zubaidi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC); Sheikh Sultan Al-Aradh, the governor of Marib province and Faraj al-Bahsani, the governor of Hadramout province. The power shake-up has occurred after consent from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Consequently, after the power transfer, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have announced support worth US$ 2 billion and US$ 1 billion respectively to restore Yemen’s economy.

Oman Secures 14 Foreign Nationals from Yemen including 7 Indians

Oman on 24 April managed to secure the release of 14 foreign nationals that were held by Houthis in Sanaa. The 14 people included seven Indians; one Filipino; one Indonesian; one Ethiopian; one Myanmar national and three British nationals. Oman managed to facilitate the release after the two month truce between Saudi led coalition and Houthis. Saudi Arabia on Oman’s request provided the necessary permits allowing these foreigners to transfer to Muscat.

Saudi Arabia-Turkey Relations

On 7 April, A Turkish court has ruled to suspend the trial in absentia of 26 Saudi nationals accused of killing Jamal Khashoggi. The court also decided to transfer the case to Saudi Arabia. The decision has been condemned by human rights groups that fear that Saudi government would deliberately cover up the killing and the legal trial will be unfair. Khashoggi’s fiancé, Hatice Cengiz has said that she would appeal the decision.
Crucially, on 28 April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman indicating willingness by both leaders to overcome the cold relationship that soured about the death of Jamal Khashoggi. Both states agreed to improve relations and nurture firm ties in all fields.

Economic Situation in Lebanon

Saudi Arabia on 6 April announced its decision to resend ambassador to Lebanon. The relationship between both states were at all-time low due to then-Information Minister George Kordahi ’s criticism of Saudi military intervention in Yemen. Lebanese politicians are highly sceptical over Saudi intervention in domestic politics including forced resignation of then Prime Minister Saad Harari. Saudi Arabia is particularly worried about the dominant role of Hezbollah, backed by Iran in Lebanese politics. Saudi Arabia after the Information Minister’s comment recalled its ambassador and placed bans of import of Lebanese goods further straining the economy. After Saudi Arabia reinstated its ambassador, Kuwait also decided to follow course and return its ambassador to Beirut.
Saudi Arabia along with France also agreed to provide US$ 32 million to carry out series of humanitarian projects in Lebanon that could help in reviving the Lebanese economy. The agreement was made between the French Development Agency and the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre to aid in economic stability and development.
The Lebanese government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached a staff level agreement on economic reform plan on 7 April. It would allow Lebanon to take loans worth US$ 3 billion required for restoring the economy. The IMF is pushing the government to initiate a multi-pronged reform programme that could lead to sustainable growth, private sector activity and job creation.

Algeria-Italy Gas Deal

Italy signed agreement with Algeria to boost energy ties. The deal was carried out between Eni and Sonatrach. It could help Algeria to expand its gas exports potential to not only Italy but also other European states. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune hoped that after the deal with Italy, other states would follow course. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called the agreement as significant step to reduce his country’s dependence on Russian gas. Italy in 2021 bought 29 billion cubic metres (BCM) from Russia that contributes to 40 percent of total gas imports. Besides Algeria, Italy is seeking for alternate sources from Qatar, Azerbaijan, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Abstract:
As the Ukraine -Russia war raged on, the countries in the region tried to assess their affiliations and predilections since these disconcerting developments would likely change the ongoing transitional global world order in unanticipated format and dimensions as they continued to also look at USA’s depleting influence and interest in the region. Votes at the UNSC and UNGA indicated their predicament as their relations with Russia and China have significantly deepened and they would prefer not to rock them despite coming under tremendous pressure from the West. PM Naftali Bennet, Qatar Foreign Minister, Saudi MBS and Turkey tried their best to diffuse the crisis and became interlocutors and hosts for the talks between warring sides.

Several regional and sub regional meetings were held including the Negev Foreign Ministers from Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain, UAE and US met at the initiative of the Yair Lapid , the Israeli Foreign Minister. Iran and the revival of JCPOA and creation of some regional architecture were discussed. Abraham Accords + will become a regular consultative Forum. Of course, Palestine- Israel issues were the mainstay for some Arab nations even though not much would have come out of it. Later, Egypt also hosted UAE Crown Prince and PM Naftali Bennet. While US is still keen to revive the JCPOA and significant progress has been made, despite standard public posturing by both sides, Israel and several Gulf countries remain vigilant and somewhat dissatisfied of not being included in the talks knowing too well that it could only be the signatories if the talks had to go forward.

King Abdullah II of Jordan is trying his diplomatic skills with Israel to ensure that the Ramadan period passes off peacefully in Jerusalem. He is the custodian of Al Aqsa -3rd holiest mosque in Jerusalem after Mecca and Media.

In a separate development, Jordan’s King Abdullah II hosted Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in the southern Jordanian city of Aqaba. The palace read out said that the meeting, which was also attended by a senior Saudi official, “covered means to advance ties between Jordan and these countries,” without elaborating. However, a statement from the Iraqi leader’s office said they discussed the global economic crisis and ways to confront food security challenges.

President Bashar al Assad was in the UAE, marking his first visit to an Arab country since the Syrian uprising began in 2011. It was also being seen as another marker of UAE’s independent foreign policy since US had imposed Caesar’s Act against Syria which also covers other countries dealing with Damascus.

Saudi Arabia executed 81 people convicted of crimes ranging from killings to ties to militant groups, a group that activists believe included over three dozen Shiites. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh sharply condemned the executions as “a violation of basic principles of human rights and international law.” The talks between Riyadh and Tehran have also been held up. However, Houthis agreed to the ceasefire for three months pursuant to halt of attacks by Saudi led coalition and UN negotiations.

Qatar has finally been designated as the non-NATO ally by the US for its role in Afghanistan and largely supportive to US ventures in the region and elsewhere.

Israeli PM Naftali Bennet and Defence Minister Benny Gantz were slated to visit India to mark the 30th anniversary celebrations of establishment of full diplomatic relations. However, as PM Bennet suffered from Covid, the visit was rescheduled. PM Modi called Bennet to enquire about his health and wished him speedy recovery and early visit to India.

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Negev Summit

On 28 March, the Negev Summit was attended by Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, and UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The Foreign Ministers of the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco condemned the recent attack on Israelis. The Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid during the press release called for erecting new architecture with shared capabilities that intimidates and deters common enemies i.e. Iran and its proxies. Lapid announced that following the meeting, it will be turned into a permanent forum. The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken called on the participating states to work together to confront common security challenges and threats including those arising from Iran and its proxies. Blinken also mentioned about the US effort to work on a vision for the Palestinians and Israelis to enjoy equal measures if freedom, opportunity, security and dignity. The Emirati Foreign Minister stressed on the UAE’s support for efforts aimed at achieving peace, security, stability and development in the region.

The Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry noted that Egypt’s participation in the summit is aimed at strengthening the Israel-Palestine peace process. During the negotiations with Israeli side, the Egyptian leaders pushed for resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians and continue peace efforts. Egypt is also keen to intensify cooperation to face common challenges related to terrorism and extremism and achieve stability.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh condemned the summit calling such gatherings as free reward to Israel and Arab normalisation meetings without ending the occupation were just illusion and mirage.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

In March, there were series of shooting, stabbing and car ramming attacks in Israeli cities and Jerusalem. The attacks occurred in the backdrop on Negev Summit attended by top diplomats from the UAE; Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, Israel and the US to interact on security issues. The recent attacks have raised the fear of violence during the month of Ramadan. The Jewish holiday of Passover and Christian holiday of Easter were also falling around the same time.

On 6 March, one Palestinian teenager stabbed two officers in Old City in occupied East Jerusalem. On 19 March, one Jewish jogger was stabbed and injured in West Jerusalem. On 22 March, four Israelis were killed in a knife and car ramming attack in Beersheba. Beersheba is not usually at the centre of Israeli-Palestine conflict. In recent years, tensions have increased in the Negev region over the ownership of land owned by Bedouins. The land disputes for many Palestinians are emblematic of the Israel-Palestine conflict. The attacker was a teacher in a close by Bedouin town reportedly pledged support for the Islamic State. The Islamic State (IS) operatives on 28 March killed two people and injured six in shooting attack in Hadera. The attack coincided with the Negev Summit. On 30 March, five Israelis were shot dead near Tel Aviv. The attack occurred in the ultra-orthodox city of Bnei Brak. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade took responsibility for the attack and called the attack as “a clear message written in blood in response to the Negev summit”.

In West Bank, there have been number of clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces in March. On 1 March, three Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in Beit Fajar and Jenin. ON 31 March, Israeli forces killed two Palestinians and injured seven others in a refugee camp in Jenin. On same day, one Palestinian man stabbed on Israeli bus near a Jewish settlement in the West Bank.

Israeli Defence Minister’s Visit to Amman

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz visited Amman on 29 March and met with Jordanian King Abdullah. The meeting was seen as joint effort to reduce tensions between Israelis and Palestinians during the Ramadan period. The King appealed to Israel to respect Islamic rights to the Al Aqsa mosque compound which was crucial for maintaining the comprehensive calm. Gantz briefed about the measures taken by Israel to ensure freedom of prayer in Jerusalem and West Bank. The statement however did not elaborate on steps taken to carry out worship in Al-Aqsa Mosque. Notably, King Abdullah on 28 March visited the West Bank and met with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas.

Egypt hosts Israeli Prime Minister and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince

Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al Sisi hosted Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on 21 March. The Egyptian and the Emirati leaders agreed to expand bilateral talks on multiple issues including economic investments, Gulf security etc. The official Emirati news agency WAM mentioned that the visit was aimed at advancing cooperation in all fronts to benefit both states and their peoples. Both leaders discussed about recent regional and international issues and highlighted the necessity of emboldening Arab solidarity facing common challenges.

Notably, there is no official comment about Israeli Prime Minister’s meeting with Abdel Fatah Al Sisi. According to the Israeli media outlets, the three leaders shared concern about the possibility of revival of nuclear deal between Iran and the western states. The Gulf States have expressed unhappiness for excluding from talks to revive the nuclear pact as well as failing to address Iran’s missile programme and regional proxies.

Bashar Al Assad’s historic trip to the UAE

Syrian President on 18 March visited the UAE and met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. It was Assad’s first visit abroad since the 2011 civil war. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince expressed hope that the visit could promote peace and stability for Syria and the entire region. The discussion between Assad and the Dubai ruler focussed on expanding circle of bilateral cooperation in terms of economy, commerce and investments. Both leaders also shared their views on areas of shared concern about Syria’s territorial integrity and withdrawal of foreign forces.

The UAE has been one of the harshest critics of Bashar Al Assad since the 2011 civil war. The UAE backed Syrian opposition groups to topple Assad regime. Syria was expelled from the Arab League in November 2011 and faced years of isolation. Assad however managed to retain his political position due to backing from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. The neighbouring states over the years have gradually re-engaged with Assad government. The UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus in December 2018. Jordan and Lebanon has requested the US to ease sanctions of Syria to facilitate bilateral trade. The US criticised Assad’s visit to the UAE saying it was profoundly disappointed.

Saudi Arabia- Houthi Conflict

Houthis in last week of March carried out drone strikes attacking oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea acknowledged the attack on Saudi Aramco’s facilities in Jeddah with missiles and Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries with drones. Saudi Arabia destroyed two explosive laden drones heading towards Najran. The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken condemned “reckless terrorist attacks striking civilian infrastructure” and called for immediate de-escalation. The attack in Jeddah endangered the planned Formula One race. The Saudi Motorsport Co. assured that race weekend schedule would continue as planned.

Saudi Arabia in response conducted air raids in Sanaa and Hodeida killing seven people. The Saudi coalition attacked one power plant; one fuel supply station and state run insurance office in Sanaa. In Hodeidah, oil facilities were targeted by Saudi forces. Houthis following the attack announced a three day truce and hinted the possibility of permanent ceasefire. The Saudi led coalition on 30 March eventually halted military operations after call from the UN for truce during the month of Ramadan.

Qatar commits to invest US$ 5 billion in Egypt

Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani visited Cairo and met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Qatari Foreign Minister visited Egypt in May 2021. The Qatari Foreign Minister promised to invest US$ 5 billion in Egypt to strengthen economic and investment cooperation between both states. The visit by the Qatari Foreign Minister indicates warming of ties with Al-Sisi government. Egypt joined Saudi Arabia and the UAE to boycott Qatar in 2017. Qatar is a strong supporter of Muslim Brotherhood and it has been critical of the heavy handed approach by the military and security forces. Qatar’s investment is likely to help Egypt which is facing high inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The US officially designated Qatar as a major non-NATO ally on 10 March. The move has officially upgraded the partnership between both states. The designation would provide special economic and military privileges. Qatar is the third state in the Persian Gulf region after Kuwait and Bahrain to become a US major non-NATO ally.