Category Archives: Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Economic

Fight terror risks in overseas projects with shared intelligence, Chinese ex-security official says

Countries should step up intelligence sharing to protect overseas investments, according to a former senior Chinese public security official, as Beijing faces greater risks to its belt and road projects. “In the face of challenges, countries need to establish a concept of mutual security,” Chen Zhimin, China’s vice-minister for public security until 2017, told a panel organised by the Beijing-backed Boao Forum in Changsha, Hunan province, on Oct 25. “[Nations should] agree to share intelligence, rules, education and experiences – including hi-tech and big data components – on security matters, in order to achieve a new model of global development,” said Chen, also a former vice-minister of internet regulators the Cyberspace Administration of China. He is currently a member of the country’s top advisory body. China’s latest five-year plan identified “protecting the rights and interests of Chinese overseas investments” as a key goal to ensure national “economic security”, acknowledging that there were increasing risks and uncertainties regarding the safety of China’s wide range of overseas projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. Click here to read…

G-7 trade ministers call for ridding supply chains of forced labour

Ministers from the Group of Seven advanced economies agreed Oct 22 to seek to eliminate forced labour from global supply chains, taking a stance seen as in line with Western criticism of China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims. The joint statement from the G-7 trade meeting in London marks the first time the group has endorsed import restrictions and other trade policy tools to stop forced labour. The ministers voiced concern about states imposing forced labour on vulnerable groups. While not calling out China by name, the statement follows months of Western denunciation and sanctions imposed on Chinese officials over alleged human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. The group also seeks to promote due diligence by companies in order to identify and prevent human rights violations within supply chains. In addition, the G-7 ministers adopted digital trade principles to guide members on promoting the free transfer of data across borders. Ministers shared concerns about multinationals being compelled to keep servers in countries they operate in and called for a ban on forced disclosures of source codes. Click here to read…

China’s SOEs beat hamstrung private sector in profits

China’s state-owned enterprises have pulled ahead of the private sector in profitability this year, as private businesses grapple with an array of challenges including regulatory crackdowns, cash crunches and soaring material costs. Big state industrial companies logged 1.77 trillion yuan ($275 billion) in total profits for the first eight months of 2021, up 87% on the year, compared with a 34% rise to 1.64 trillion yuan for their private counterparts, government data shows. The category covers enterprises in manufacturing, mining and similar industries with more than 20 million yuan in annual revenue from their main operations. If this continues, the state sector could beat the private sector in full-year profits for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008. The trend has raised alarms about the repercussions of President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on strengthening state enterprises, dubbed guojin min tui — “the state advances, the private sector retreats.” While Xi said in April 2020 that reform of state-owned companies was needed, he also asserted that the sector could not be “denied or diminished.” It also underlines the hurdles to China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership, which bars members from favouring state enterprises. Click here to read…

Xi’s ‘Common Prosperity’ in Theory and Practice

The publication in the party’s theoretical journal, “Seeking Truth,” appears partly aimed at reassuring investors and entrepreneurs spooked by novel language about “rationally adjusting” excessive incomes in the original mid-August readout of Mr. Xi’s speech, which came at the height of Beijing’s campaign to rein in its internet giants. The expanded remarks still contain such language, but the tone and structure contain some marked differences. Mr. Xi forcefully addresses entrepreneurship right near the top, saying that “common prosperity depends on hard work” and innovation and that law-abiding entrepreneurs should be particularly encouraged. The newly released remarks also warn about the dangers of “welfarism” and government dependence—language that was absent from the original readout. In theory, there is a fair amount for investors to like here: most important, it shows that Mr. Xi understands the importance of incentives—and that the rapidly escalating regulatory campaign over the past year risks damaging entrepreneurship. The speech also fits with Beijing’s long standing skepticism about big outlays for social services, as opposed to infrastructure or carrots for businesses like cheap land. The problem, of course, is that this is all happening in the lead-up to the 20th Party Congress next fall. Click here to read…

China Plans Property-Tax Trials as It Targets Speculation

China said it would conduct five-year property-tax trials in some regions of the country as Beijing looks for ways to rein in real-estate speculation and distribute wealth more evenly. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee, the country’s top legislative body, passed the tax-pilot program on Oct 23, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The State Council, China’s cabinet, is expected to disclose details in the next few months, including which regions this initiative will cover and how the tax rate will be set, people familiar with government deliberations said. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has long sought to impose a nationwide property tax to curb housing speculation, bring down runaway prices and reduce the financial burden on families already strained by rising education, medical and other costs. But his broad property-tax push has met heavy resistance from within the ruling Communist Party, including both the elites and its rank-and-file members. An initial proposal to test-run the tax in some 30 cities has been scaled back to around 10 cities, according to people familiar with the deliberations. A new law aimed at advancing the tax across the country likely won’t be finalized until around 2025, the last year of the current five-year development plan, the people said. Click here to read…

China’s Indonesian coal imports hit record amid power crisis, Southeast Asian nation now biggest supplier

Indonesia is now overwhelmingly China’s biggest overseas supplier of coal, with shipments hitting a record last month after Beijing loosened curbs on imports to tackle its power crisis. Cargoes of coking, thermal and brown coal from the Southeast Asian nation surpassed 21 million tonnes in September, from just over 17 million tonnes in August, and now account for about two-thirds of China’s total imports, according to customs data. Chinese buyers have been forced to tap other suppliers of the fuel to replace Australian exports banned almost a year ago after political relations with Canberra soured. But hopes that Mongolia could supply more coal – particularly the higher quality produced by Australia and used by steel mills – were dashed as coronavirus pandemic restrictions in China’s neighbour saw cargoes sink below 1 million tonnes, according to the data. Indonesia’s benchmark coal price has hit record levels, bolstered by a surge in demand since June, when Beijing pledged to raise imports in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to head off the power crisis that is now gripping the country. Late last year, China struck a three-year deal with Indonesian miners for US1.5 billion of the fuel as Beijing sought long-term options to displace Australian supplies. Click here to read…

Japan to lobby Saudi, UAE, and other oil nations to boost supply

Japan will urge petroleum-producing nations to raise output and ease the soaring global oil prices that have hurt both corporate earnings and household budgets. The plan to lobby oil producers, in collaboration with the International Energy Agency, is based on directives by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Tokyo also looks to offer state support for affected industries, as officials from relevant ministries met Oct 18 to discuss ways to address the oil price rally. “The government as a whole will respond swiftly to make sure there is no disruption to industry or the daily lives of citizens,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, who attended the meeting. Tokyo will work with the IEA to ask Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other major oil producers to boost output. Koichi Hagiuda, the trade and industry minister said after Oct 18’s meeting that he intends to talk with oil producing nations ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting set for early November. DaishiroYamagiwa, Japan’s economic revitalization minister also attended Oct 18’s meeting. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi spoke by phone Oct 18 with Kuwaiti counterpart Ahmad Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah, asking for the Persian Gulf country’s cooperation toward stabilizing the market including via greater crude production. Click here to read…

Semiconductor giant TSMC’s decision to cooperate with Washington’s chip data request fuels anger in China

The decision by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) to comply with a US request for information has stirred anger and uneasiness in China over fears that Washington could use the information to sanction Beijing, even though the Taiwan chip maker said it will not reveal confidential client information to the US government. TSMC, the single-most important player in the global semiconductor industry, said in a statement on Monday that it will “respond to” a request by the US Commerce Department seeking information from companies in the chip supply chain, a list that also included South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and US chip firm Intel. While the US government said its request was aimed at finding out reasons for the chip shortage – and no Chinese company was directly involved – the move has raised alarm bells in China. Xi Chen, an academic committee member at Peking University’s Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding, said earlier that the data could potentially help Washington impose sanctions on Chinese companies in a more precise way. The decision by TSMC to comply with US sanctions on Huawei Technologies Co devastated the Shenzhen-based company’s smartphone business. Click here to read…

Toyota testing hydrogen combustion engines in race cars

Toyota said Oct 25 it is testing hydrogen combustion engines in race cars as it works toward using the technology in commercial products. Such engines burn hydrogen as fuel instead of gasoline much like rockets. The Japanese automaker said testing the technology in race cars will allow it to collect data and try to fix problems on-site. Toyota Motor announced earlier that it was developing a hydrogen combustion engine, which Ford Motor and other automakers have also developed. Vehicles powered by such engines are different from fuel cell vehicles that use hydrogen to create electricity, and from electric or hybrid vehicles. ”We want to propose multiple options to meet regional needs,” Naoyuki Sakamoto, chief engineer of the hydrogen-powered engine Corolla model, said in an online news conference. Sakamoto declined to say when the hydrogen combustion engine may become a commercial product, acknowledging further development are needed to address its so far limited driving range. Infrastructure for fuelling such vehicles is another obstacle. One advantage of hydrogen engines is that minimal adjustments are needed from regular internal combustion engines, except for the fuel piping and injection systems. The use of hydrogen as fuel comes with some risk concerns, but hydrogen fuelling stations are operating across Japan, with no major accidents so far. Click here to read…

Biden and Democrats Push for Budget Deal This Week as Rifts Remain

President Biden and Democratic congressional leaders raced on Oct 25 to strike a compromise on a domestic policy and climate package, pushing for a vote within days even as critical disagreements remained over health benefits, paid leave, environmental provisions and how to pay for the sprawling plan. Negotiators were closing in on an agreement that could spend around $1.75 trillion over 10 years, half the size of the blueprint Democrats approved earlier this year, as they haggled with centrist holdouts in their party who are pressing to curtail the size of the bill. They have coalesced around a plan that would extend monthly payments to families with children, establish generous tax incentives for clean energy use and provide federal support for childcare, elder care and universal pre-kindergarten. An array of tax increases, including a new wealth tax for the country’s billionaires, would pay for the initiatives. But a final deal remained elusive amid disputes over the details of potential Medicare and Medicaid expansions, a new paid family and medical leave program, programs to combat climate change and a proposal to lower the cost of prescription drugs. Click here to read…

Saudi Arabia pledges 2060 target of net-zero emissions

One of the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia, announced Oct 23 it aims to reach “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, joining more than 100 countries in a global effort to try and curb man-made climate change. The announcement, made by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in brief scripted remarks at the start of the kingdom’s first-ever Saudi Green Initiative Forum, was timed to make a splash a little more than a week before the start of the global COP26 climate conference being held in Glasgow, Scotland. Although the kingdom will aim to reduce its emissions, Prince Mohammed said the kingdom would do so through a so-called “Carbon Circular Economy” approach. That approach focuses on still unreliable carbon capture and storage technologies over efforts to actually reduce global reliance on fossil fuels. The announcement only pertains to Saudi Arabia’s efforts within its national borders. Earlier this month, the United Arab Emirates — another major Gulf Arab energy producer — announced it too would join the “net zero” club of nations with a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The UAE says it is home to three of the largest solar facilities in the world and is the first country in the Middle East to deploy nuclear power. Click here to read…

Strategic

Chinese, Russian navy operation cuts through 2nd Japan strait

Chinese and Russian naval vessels for the first time passed through a second strait in waters off the Japanese archipelago simultaneously on Oct. 22. A fleet of 10 naval vessels consisting of five from each country traversed the Osumi Strait, located between Kyushu and Tanegashima island, into the East China Sea, Japan’s Defense Ministry announced the following day. The same fleet on Oct. 18 moved through the Tsugaru Strait, separating the Japanese islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, into the Pacific Ocean, meaning it has now travelled halfway around the Japanese archipelago. As well as being the first time Chinese and Russian naval vessels have passed through the two straits at the same time, it is also unusual for such a large number of vessels to simultaneously sail through a strait in waters off the Japanese archipelago. The move was an apparent attempt to put military pressure on Japan, according to a Japanese government source. China and Russia are believed to be trying to counter repeated joint military drills Japan is conducting with the United States and other countries. Click here to read…

Wang Yi offers 5 suggestions on improving China-Japan ties at Beijing-Tokyo Forum

As next year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi offered five suggestions to guide bilateral relations at the 17th Annual Beijing-Tokyo Forum via video in Beijing on Oct 25. He highlighted the importance of rebuilding mutual trust, upgrading cooperation, managing differences, expanding exchanges and enhancing coordination. Supported by China’s State Council Information Office (SCIO) and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and jointly held by the China Foreign Languages Publishing Administration and Japan’s think tank Genron NPO, the 17th Annual Beijing-Tokyo Forum opened on Oct 25 in Beijing and Tokyo at the same time in dual online and in-person formats. Issues from history, the Taiwan question and other issues bear on the political foundation of bilateral relations, said Wang. He urged the two sides to abide by the principles and spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, warning that Japan should not be vague on the issues, let alone try to cross the bottom line. Second, China and Japan should upgrade cooperation to achieve higher levels of mutual benefits as the fundamentals of mutual needs and complementary advantages remain unchanged, said Wang, noting that the potential for cooperation is still huge. Click here to read…

Taliban to form new armed forces including former regime troops

Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government on Oct 25 announced it is to form new armed forces for the country including soldiers from the previous regime’s military. The former Afghan military and Western-backed government collapsed on Aug. 15 when President Ashraf Ghani fled Afghanistan as the Taliban took control in a lightning offensive while the US and its allies were withdrawing troops after 20 years on the ground. In September, the Taliban appointed an interim government in Afghanistan, declaring the country an Islamic emirate. Defense Minister Mullah Mohammed Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, announced the formation of new armed forces on Oct 24, in an audio message released by the Defense Ministry. Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, told Arab News: “Army is a priority and urgent need of the country. The Islamic emirate would work on forming an empowered army that would be responsible for protecting Afghans and would have the ability to defend the peace of Afghanistan at any cost.” He said that the new army would be comprised of Taliban fighters and soldiers of the former regime. However, there was no comment on whether the formation of the new armed forces would be supported by other countries. Click here to read…

AUKUS spurs French strategic review with tilt toward Japan, India

France is reviewing its Indo-Pacific approach after being blindsided by the AUKUS alliance that scuttled its submarine deal with Australia, a French official said in Tokyo on Oct 19, with Paris keen to strengthen ties with Japan and India. Philippe Errera, the French Foreign Ministry’s director-general for political affairs and security, was visiting Japan with Alice Guitton, director-general for international relations and strategy at the Ministry for the Armed Forces, to meet with their Japanese counterparts and lay the groundwork for a “2+2” ministerial-level meeting by the year-end. France has also been boosting ties with India in recent years. In 2019, the two countries accelerated their strategic convergence with a two-day summit in Paris, which led to joint military exercises and India agreeing to buy French fighter jets under a contract worth 7.9 billion Euros ($9.2 billion). Together with Japan and India, “we note a convergent vision on the fact that the Indo-Pacific stakes are not reduced to military competition with China,” and should include areas such as economy and health, Errera said. For Paris, considered the most proactive proponent of an Indo-Pacific approach within the European Union, the increasingly tight-knit Anglosphere may be a motivation to shore up its own security presence. Click here to read…

Why Dubai plans to build infrastructure in Kashmir

The government of Dubai, one of the UAE’s seven emirates, recently inked an agreement with India to ramp up infrastructure investment in Jammu and Kashmir. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government said the deal will see Dubai building infrastructure in the troubled region including industrial parks, IT towers, multi-purpose towers, logistics centres, a medical college and a specialized hospital. “The world has started to recognize the pace (at) which Jammu and Kashmir is traversing on the development bandwagon,” Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said in a statement. Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, chairman and CEO of DP World Dubai, told media in Srinagar: “We are committed to connect Jammu and Kashmir to the rest of India. We know how to do that, we know the obstacles.” No figure for the value of the accord was given but Sulayem pointed out that the investments by his firm will be part of the Modi government’s “Make in India” initiative. This is the first investment agreement by a foreign government involving Kashmir since New Delhi scrapped the region’s special status in 2019. Click here to read…

Myanmar threatens to skip ASEAN summit over junta chief’s exclusion

Myanmar’s junta threatened on Oct 25 to skip an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit after the bloc said that the country’s military chief could not attend over doubts about the government’s commitment to defusing a bloody crisis. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the generals ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in a February coup, triggering nationwide protests and a violent crackdown on dissent. Earlier this month, ASEAN – under international pressure to broker a diplomatic solution to the conflict – excluded junta chief Min Aung Hlaing from a forthcoming leaders’ summit. The exclusion from the Oct 26 to Oct 28 meeting in Brunei “broke ASEAN principles”, junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told local media on Oct 25. He confirmed that the bloc had instead invited a “non-political” representative – director general of the foreign affairs ministry Chan Aye. “But we aren’t sure whether to attend or not … Attending it could affect our country’s sovereignty and image,” the spokesman said. ASEAN issued the rare rebuke to Myanmar after the junta rebuffed requests that a special envoy meet with “all stakeholders” in the country – a phrase seen to include deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Click here to read…

U.S. National Security Advisor met representatives of Myanmar’s shadow government

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met on Oct 26 with representatives of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), set up by opponents of army rule, the White House said late on Oct 26. In the virtual meeting, Sullivan reiterated continued U.S. support for the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar and discussed ongoing efforts to restore the country’s path to democracy with NUG representatives Duwa Lashi La and Zin Mar Aung, the White House said in a statement. Sullivan expressed concern over the military’s violence and said “the U.S. will continue to promote accountability for the coup”, according to the White House. Protests and unrest have paralyzed Myanmar since the Feb. 1 coup, with the military accused of atrocities and excessive force against civilians. The junta blames the unrest on “terrorists” allied with the shadow government. Recognizing Myanmar’s junta as the country’s government would not stop growing violence, the outgoing United Nations special envoy on Myanmar said earlier on Oct 26. Click here to read…

Kishida orders Japan NSC to weigh strike capability after North Korean launch

Japan’s National Security Council will consider having the country secure the capability to strike enemy missile bases in response to an imminent attack, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Oct 19 after the group met to discuss North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch. “We reaffirmed that we will consider all possible options, including enemy base strike capabilities,” in a planned update of Japan’s national security strategy, Kishida told reporters. Tokyo is analyzing Oct 19’s launch by Pyongyang with an eye on the possibility that the test involved a submarine-launched ballistic missile, he said. “For the security of Japan and the region, we cannot overlook North Korea’s striking progress in nuclear and missile-related technology,” Kishida said. Kishida and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno were away from Tokyo at the time of the launch for the first day of campaigning ahead of this month’s lower house parliamentary election. Both cut short their speaking schedules and returned to the capital. The prime minister said Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihiko Isozaki was on call to handle any problems that arose in his absence. Click here to read…

N Korea rattles from walking skeletons, not sabres

It’s probably no coincidence that North Korea’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile on Oct 19 came just as the country’s military was reported to have begun investigating soldiers’ “nutritional status.” After all, if the “human bullets” who have vowed to protect the leader are getting so few calories it affects their readiness to fight, it makes sense to distract enemies from that sign of national weakness and focus on a new and shiny, non-human projectile that will give the enemies something to worry about. Seoul-based Daily NK reported that it had learned from “a source in the North Korean military” that leader Kim Jong Un “issued an order on October 9 calling for improvements in ‘logistics and soldiers’ health’ during October and November.” This is the period when the military is preparing for the winter months and for winter training. The General Political Bureau and Ministry of Defense in response to Kim’s order are investigating not only wintertime food supplies for the Korean People’s Army (KPA), but also “the state of ‘frailty’ among soldiers due to malnutrition,” the specialty news organization said. Click here to read…

US and Taiwanese officials meet to discuss ‘meaningful’ UN role for island

US and Taiwanese officials discussed plans to allow the island to “participate meaningfully” at the United Nations on Oct 22 in the latest move to upgrade Washington’s relationship with the island. The US State Department said in a statement released on Oct 24 that “high-level representatives” of the US State Department and Taiwan’s foreign ministry had discussed “expanding Taiwan’s participation at the United Nations and in other international fora”. “The discussion focussed on supporting Taiwan’s ability to participate meaningfully at the UN and contribute its valuable expertise to address global challenges, including global public health, the environment and climate change, development assistance, technical standards, and economic cooperation,” the statement said. “US participants reiterated the US commitment to Taiwan’s meaningful participation at the World Health Organization and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and discussed ways to highlight Taiwan’s ability to contribute to efforts on a wide range of issues,” it continued. The talks came just days ahead of President Xi Jinping’s speech at the UN on Oct 25 to mark the 50th anniversary of the People’s Republic taking China’s seat at the UN. Taiwan, under the name of the Republic of China, had held the Chinese seat until then. Click here to read…

Taiwan rides soft power wave as democracies sour on China

Taiwan cannot match the economic or military might of China. Yet as Beijing doubles down on its belligerent words and actions toward its smaller neighbour, Taiwan is reaping the benefits of soft power as China’s image declines. Harvard University announced last week it has relocated its overseas Mandarin program from Beijing to Taipei — a shift that its student paper reported was “due to a perceived lack of friendliness from the host institution, Beijing Language and Culture University.” Harvard’s decision could spur other universities with programs in China to make similar moves and comes at a time when countries and organizations are beginning to recalibrate their approach to China and reconsider their view of Taiwan. Some in Beijing appear aware that China has a major image problem — one that is at least partly of its own doing. Three days after Harvard’s announcement, Fu Ying, a former diplomat and current chair of the National People’s Congress Foreign Affairs Committee, gently suggested in a People’s Daily column on Oct 21 that China could improve its image abroad. Carefully quoting Chinese leader Xi Jinping throughout, Fu’s column could be interpreted as a subtle critique of the more combative diplomatic posture Xi has encouraged. Click here to read…

EU-Taiwan relations: MEPs push for stronger partnership

MEPs hail Taiwan as a key EU partner and democratically in the Indo-Pacific, one that contributes to maintaining a rules-based order in the midst of an intensifying rivalry between the major geopolitical actors in the region. To step up cooperation, the text adopted by MEPs stresses the urgent need to launch an “impact assessment, public consultation and scoping exercise” for an EU-Taiwan Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA). Members highlight the importance of trade and economic relations between the EU and Taiwan, including on matters relating to multilateralism and the World Trade Organization, technology such as 5G, public health, and essential cooperation on critical supplies like semiconductors. The report expresses grave concern over China’s continued military belligerence, pressure, assault exercises, airspace violations and disinformation campaigns against Taiwan. MEPs urge the EU to do more to address these tensions, to protect Taiwan’s democracy, and the island’s status as an important EU partner. Parliament insists that any change to mainland China-Taiwan cross-strait relations must be neither unilateral nor against the will of Taiwanese citizens. Finally, Members propose changing the name of the European Economic and Trade Office in Taiwan to ‘European Union Office in Taiwan’ in order to reflect the broad scope of EU-Taiwanese ties. Click here to read…

China law tightens land borders amid regional tensions

China’s top legislative body on Oct 23 passed a law to strengthen the country’s land borders amid rising tensions with India over disputed territory and concerns over a possible influx of Islamic extremists from Afghanistan. Under the new law, the People’s Armed Police Force and the Public Security Bureau, which are in charge of maintaining public order in China, can be mobilized to guard borders in addition to the People’s Liberation Army. The forces will look to handle serious incidents, terrorism and illegal crossings in border regions. The law also stipulates that weapons can be used against people illegally crossing borders if they engage in violence, as well as banning the use of drones and model airplanes near borders without permission. The law, passed by National People’s Congress Standing Committee, specifies that infrastructure facilities for transport, communication, surveillance and defense can be built on the Chinese side of its borders. It also stipulates that no organization or individual can build durable structures near borders without China’s approval. A provision on the protection of water resources is believed to have been made with India in mind. The law states that the national and local governments are obliged to take measures to protect the stability of trans-boundary rivers and lakes. Click here to read…

US nearing a formal agreement to use Pakistan’s airspace to carry out military operations in Afghanistan

The Biden administration has told lawmakers that the US is nearing a formalized agreement with Pakistan for use of its airspace to conduct military and intelligence operations in Afghanistan, according to three sources familiar with the details of a classified briefing with members of Congress that took place on Oct 22 morning. Pakistan has expressed a desire to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in exchange for assistance with its own counterterrorism efforts and help in managing the relationship with India, one of the sources said. But the negotiations are ongoing, another source said, and the terms of the agreement, which has not been finalized, could still change. The US military currently uses Pakistan’s airspace to reach Afghanistan as part of ongoing intelligence-gathering efforts, but there is no formal agreement in place to ensure continued access to a critical piece of airspace necessary for the US to reach Afghanistan. The air corridor through Pakistan to Afghanistan may become even more critical if and when the US resumes flights into Kabul to fly out American citizens and others who remain in the country. Click here to read…

President Erdogan, cabinet discuss expulsion of 10 allied envoys

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Oct 25 backed down from his threat to expel 10 Western ambassadors over their joint statement of support for a jailed civil society leader. Erdogan said during the weekend he had ordered the envoys to be declared persona non grata for seeking the release of prominent philanthropist Osman Kavala, 64, detained for four years on charges of financing protests and involvement in an attempted coup. He spoke after the United States and several of the other concerned countries issued identical statements saying they respected a UN convention that required diplomats not to interfere in the host country’s domestic affairs. Erdogan said the new statement “shows they have taken a step back from the slander against our country”, adding: “They will be more careful now.” The envoys from Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand and the US called last week for a just and speedy resolution to Kavala’s case, and for his “urgent release”. Erdogan said – after chairing a cabinet meeting devoted to the crisis – spoke of his “duty as head of state to give the necessary response” to foreign violations of Turkey’s sovereign rights. Click here to read…

Sudan security forces arrest PM Abdalla Hamdok, ministers

Security forces in Sudan have arrested Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several other members of the country’s civilian leadership, the information ministry said, as a military officer dissolved the transitional government. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a general who headed the Sovereign Council, a power-sharing ruling body, announced a state of emergency across the country and dissolved the council and the transitional government. Hamdok was arrested and moved to an undisclosed location after refusing to issue a statement in support of the coup, said the information ministry, still apparently under the control of Hamdok’s supporters. The arrests on Oct 24 prompted thousands of people to take to the streets in the capital, Khartoum, to demand the release of the political leaders amid reports of clashes and gunfire. Soldiers were stationed on the streets of Khartoum and restricted civilians’ movements, as protesters opposed to the military takeover carried the national flag and burned tyres across the city. Footage broadcast by the Al Jazeera Mubasher television channel showed protesters moving past barricades and entering the street surrounding military headquarters in Khartoum. The footage also showed soldiers standing by as protesters passed them and marched down the street. Click here to read…

Bangladesh police arrest 450 people linked to attacks on Hindu homes and religious sites in worst unrest for over a decade

Bangladeshi police have arrested 450 people following attacks against Hindus in the Muslim-majority country in some of the worst unrest in over a decade, which has seen Hindu religious sites vandalized and homes destroyed. Authorities logged 71 cases linked to violence during the major Hindu festival of Durga Puja across different parts of Bangladesh, the police’s assistant inspector general said on Oct 18. In the last five days 450 people have been arrested in connection with attacks on puja venues and temples, as well as Hindu homes and businesses, and for spreading rumours on social media during the religious holiday, local media reported. The senior police official added that the number of arrests and incidents could increase as investigations are still ongoing. The United Nations’ resident coordinator in Bangladesh, Mia Seppo, condemned the turbulence on the same day: “Recent attacks on Hindus of Bangladesh, fuelled by hate speech on social media, are against the values of the Constitution and need to stop”. She also called for the government to ensure an impartial probe and the protection of minorities. Click here to read…

EU says to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Brussels ‘this week’

The EU’s top negotiator will meet his counterpart from Tehran this week in Brussels for talks on restarting negotiations over Iran’s nuclear deal, a spokesman for the bloc said on Oct 25. The EU and world powers are scrambling to try to get negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 accord back on track after the election of a hard-liner in Tehran. Iran’s chief negotiator on the deal, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, wrote on Twitter that he would be in Brussels on Oct 27 “to continue our talks on result-oriented negotiations.”EU spokesman Peter Stano said the meeting would involve the bloc’s lead negotiator Enrique Mora, who visited Tehran earlier this month to push Iran to restart full negotiations. Stano said the EU’s diplomatic service was “sparing no efforts to resume talks of all parties in Vienna.” But the Vienna-based talks through intermediaries made little headway, before being interrupted by the election of hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president and suspended for the last four months. The EU acts as coordinator for the deal that also involves Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia. Click here to read…

How Egypt turned the page with a comeback on the regional stage

Egypt has experienced a decade of upheaval since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, contending with two revolutions, environmental pressures, and more recently the economic challenges of COVID-19. And yet, this most populous of Arab countries, straddling the African and Asian continents, has emerged from the turbulence with a new sense of purpose and a desire for greater engagement with the region and the world. It has been announced that Egypt is a nominee to host the COP27 UN climate conference for 2022 — a distinction that seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. This October not only marks the 48th anniversary of the 1973 war with Israel; 40 years ago on October 6, President Anwar Sadat was assassinated by Islamist extremists during the annual victory parade in Cairo. For many in the Middle East, Sadat’s positive legacy is a work in progress: The Egypt-Israel peace process, Egyptian economic development and political liberalization, the Palestinian peace process, and overcoming the challenge of violent extremism. Egypt struck the jackpot in 2015 with the discovery of a giant reservoir known as Zohr, which has developed into one of the largest single gas fields in the Middle East. Click here to read…

Medical

EMA greenlights new Pfizer-BioNTech manufacturing sites and Covid vaccine formula as it mulls extending jab for ages 5-11

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has approved two additional manufacturing sites for the production of Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid vaccine, as well as a new formula, as it considers rolling out the shots for those aged five to 11. In a statement issued on Oct 18, the EU’s drug regulator revealed that its human medicines committee (CHMP) has given its seal of approval for two additional manufacturing sites for the production of Comirnaty, the Covid-19 jab developed by the US-German partnership of Pfizer and BioNTech. The agency also said that the CHMP “approved a ready-to-use formulation of Comirnaty” with changes to “provide improved storage, transport and logistic options for vaccine distribution and administration.” The new formulation will be available in a phased rollout starting early next year. In a separate notice on Oct 18, the EMA said it has started evaluating an application to extend the use of Comirnaty to minors aged between five and 11. The watchdog said it will review data on the jab, including an ongoing clinical study conducted on this age group in order to make the decision. This will then be forwarded to the European Commission, which will make a final ruling. Click here to read…

China battles new COVID-19 outbreak with eye on Beijing Winter Olympics

Tens of thousands of people in northern China were placed under strict stay-at-home orders on Oct 25 as authorities sought to stamp out a growing COVID-19 outbreak in the run-up to the Beijing Winter Olympics. Residents of the Chinese capital were also advised not to leave the city unless necessary, although regular transport services out of the city continued as normal. China reported 39 new cases on Oct 25, bringing the tally from the latest Delta variant-linked outbreak to more than 100 cases over the past week. The numbers are extremely low compared with most other places in the world, but China has pursued a zero-case strategy throughout the pandemic and authorities are determined to stamp out the latest outbreak with the Winter Olympics just over 100 days away. Several housing compounds in the capital have been locked down, and organizers on Oct 24 indefinitely postponed a marathon at which 30,000 runners were expected. And at a press briefing on Oct 24, Xu Hejian, vice minister of Beijing’s publicity department, advised people against large gatherings and “unnecessary” travel out of the capital. Click here to read…

Some Russian regions shut workplaces as daily COVID-19 cases hit new peak

Russia reported its highest single-day COVID-19 case tally since the start of the pandemic on Oct 25 as some regions imposed a workplace shutdown to combat a surge in infections and deaths. Faced with worsening disease rates and frustrated by the slow take-up of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine by its own population, authorities are introducing stricter measures this week to try to slow the spread of the pandemic. President Vladimir Putin last week declared that Oct 30 to Nov 7 would be paid non-working days but said every region could extend that period or start it earlier depending on the epidemiological situation. Six regions, including the Samara and Perm regions east of Moscow, began their non-working days on Monday (Oct 25), TASS news agency reported. From Oct 28, Moscow will introduce its tightest lockdown measures since June 2020, with only essential shops like supermarkets and pharmacies remaining open. Authorities in St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, said COVID-19 restrictions would not be lifted until at least 80 per cent of its population was vaccinated, RIA news agency reported. Nationwide, only about a third of the population has been inoculated. Click here to read…

Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 11 October- 17 October

October 19, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

China’s Xi calls for progress on property tax in drive for prosperity

In an essay in the ruling Communist Party journal Qiushi, published by the official Xinhua news agency on Oct 15, Xi called for China to “vigorously and steadily advance” legislation for a property tax. China has mulled such a tax for over a decade but faced resistance from stakeholders including local governments themselves, who fear it would erode property values or trigger a market sell-off. Such a tax could curb rampant speculation in the housing market, which is currently under intense global scrutiny as developer China Evergrande Group struggles with a debt crisis. Xi also warned against government over-promising on social welfare amid a push to achieve what he called “common prosperity” by mid-century.”Common prosperity” is a broad policy drive to narrow the gap between rich and poor. It has involved a wave of regulatory crackdowns on excesses in industries including technology and private tuition. The gap between people’s income and consumption should be narrowed to a “reasonable range” by mid-century, Xi said. But Xi also said that the government should not make promises it could not deliver on and avoid the “trap” of “welfarism” and helping the lazy. “The government cannot take care of everything,” he said. Click here to read…

China’s Li Keqiang acknowledges slowing economic growth, but says Beijing has the ‘tools’ to cope with headwinds

China has “adequate tools” to tackle the economic challenges facing the country, including the nation’s current power crisis and high commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said on Oct 14. Though economic growth has slowed in the third quarter due to a number of factors, the government was confident China could meet its growth target of “above 6 per cent” for 2021, Li said at the opening of the Canton Fair in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou. “We have adequate tools in our toolbox to cope with such challenges, including the energy and electricity supply strains,” he said, adding policymakers would also strive to keep inflation in check. China would promote innovation in cross-border e-commerce and logistics and boost international cooperation in trade digitisation, including by building a number of related enterprises in the Greater Bay Area. The provincial secretary for Guangdong read out a letter from President Xi Jinping in which he said China is willing to join hands with the rest of the world to uphold true multilateralism and build an open international economy. Before Covid-19, the 2019 spring session of the trade expo attracted 195,454 foreign buyers from 213 countries and regions across the world. The top five sources of buyers were from Hong Kong, India, the United States, South Korea and Thailand. Click here to read…

Kishida launches flagship panel to look into wealth redistribution

Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida launched a flagship council on Oct 15 to work out a strategy to tackle wealth disparities and redistribute wealth to households, in what he describes as a “new form of capitalism.” The move is a crucial part of Kishida’s economic policy that combines the pro-growth policies of former premier Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” stimulus measures and efforts to more directly shift wealth from companies to households. It also came in the wake of Kishida’s decision on Oct 14 to dissolve parliament and set the stage for an election where fixing the pandemic-hit economy will be the focus. “In order to achieve strong economic growth, it’s not enough to rely just on market competition. That won’t deliver the fruits of growth to the broader population,” Kishida told a news conference on Thursday, calling for the need for stronger government-driven steps to distribute more wealth to households. The panel will hold its first meeting later this month and aim to come up with interim proposals by year-end so they can be reflected in tax reform discussions for next fiscal year, Economy Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa told reporters on Oct 15. Click here to read…

Gas Crisis Prompts Fresh Proposals From EU

The European Union is considering new measures, including joint purchases of gas to build up the bloc’s strategic reserves, to help alleviate future energy crises like one the continent now faces. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, laid out various actions on Oct 13 that could be taken at EU or national level to prevent energy price shocks. The measures include emergency income support for families who can’t afford their energy needs, tax and levy cuts, industry-wide support for companies and efforts to work with international partners on gas supplies to ease price pressures. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the bloc was tightening its surveillance work alongside member states to clamp down on any possible gas market “manipulation or speculation”. The Commission is also tabling ideas for steps the EU might implement in the coming months to help cushion future supply shocks. Ms. Simson said the EU would also look at voluntary joint procurement of gas to build up storage reserves, which currently cover around 20% of the EU’s annual demand. She ruled out for now setting minimum storage requirements for gas—as there currently are for oil reserves. Click here to read…

Inflation Surges Worldwide as Covid-19 Lockdowns End and Supply Chains Can’t Cope

Rising inflation is triggering anxiety around the world as a surge in demand following the easing of Covid-19 lockdowns has been confronted by supply bottlenecks and rising prices of energy and raw materials. The sharpest consumer-price increases in years in many countries have evoked different responses from central banks. More than a dozen have raised interest rates but two that haven’t are those that loom largest over the global economy: the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Their differing responses reflect differences in views about whether the pickup in prices will feed further cycles of inflation or will instead peter out. Which view is right will do much to shape the trajectory of the global economy over the next few years. The large central banks are relying on households showing faith in their track records of keeping inflation low, and the expectation that there are enough under-utilized workers available to keep wage rises in check. Other monetary authorities aren’t sure that they have yet earned that kind of credibility as inflation. In poorer countries, a larger share of spending usually also goes to essentials such as food and energy that have seen the largest price rises, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation. Click here to read…

G-20 pledges help for Afghan humanitarian crisis at special summit

The Group of 20 major economies is determined to tackle the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, even if it means having to coordinate efforts with the Taliban, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Oct 12 after hosting an emergency summit. U.S. President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and many European leaders took part, but Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not dial in, suggesting differing international positions on the emergency. Draghi said the absence of the latter two leaders did not undercut the importance of the meeting organized by Italy, the current G-20 chair. “This was the first multilateral response to the Afghan crisis … multilateralism is coming back, with difficulty, but it is coming back,” Draghi said. There was unanimous agreement among the participants about the need to alleviate the crisis in Afghanistan, where banks are running out of money, civil servants have not been paid and food prices have soared, leaving millions at risk of severe hunger. Much of the aid effort will be channelled through the United Nations, but there will also be direct country-to-country assistance, despite a refusal by most states to officially recognize the hard-line Taliban government. Click here to read…

G7 finance officials say CBDCs should support, ‘do no harm’ to monetary and financial stability

G7 finance officials on Oct 13 endorsed 13 public policy principles for retail central bank digital currencies, saying they should be grounded in transparency, the rule of law and sound economic governance, the US Treasury Department said. “Innovation in digital money and payments has the potential to bring significant benefits but also raises considerable public policy and regulatory issues,” Group of 7 (G7) finance ministers and central bankers said in a joint statement. “Strong international coordination and cooperation on these issues helps to ensure that public and private sector innovation will deliver domestic and cross-border benefits while being safe for users and the wider financial system.” The finance officials met in person, with some joining by video, in Washington on Oct 13 during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank under the leadership of British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. Any CBDC must support, and ‘do no harm’ to, the ability of central banks to fulfil their mandates for monetary and financial stability. In their joint statement, the G7 officials said central bank money in the form of central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, would complement cash and could act as a liquid, safe settlement asset and an anchor for the payments system. Click here to read…

‘Made in China’ chip drive falls far short of 70% self-sufficiency

The Chinese government’s goal of meeting 70% of its semiconductor needs through domestic supply remains a long way off, private-sector research shows, with an estimated self-sufficiency rate of 16% last year despite an all-out government push to boost production. The government has laid out a slew of measures to achieve one of President Xi Jinping’s policy priorities, including stepping up investment by state-backed funds focused specifically on the industry. The largest of these is the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, dubbed the “Big Fund,” set up in the fall of 2014 and tasked with supporting Made in China 2025. The Big Fund has boosted the profile of NAND flash-memory maker Yangtze Memory Technologies. It has also invested heavily in material and equipment supply chains for Semiconductor Manufacturing International, or SMIC, helping to grow the company into a leading Chinese chip foundry. The government also rolled out tax and other incentives for chipmakers last year. Yet China sourced only 16% of its semiconductors domestically last year, data from market research firm IC Insights shows. The figure is even lower, at 6%, after excluding foreign companies with facilities in China, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Click here to read…

Indonesia turns to state coffers as China-led rail project’s costs soar

When Indonesia awarded the contract for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway to a Chinese consortium six years ago, the project was supposed to be completed by 2018 with no financial contributions or guarantees required from the Indonesian government. But with construction years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo issued a decree Sept. 6 that lets the government put state funds into the project — negating one of the biggest perks that had led Indonesia to choose the Chinese proposal over a Japanese alternative. Much of the rail link’s woes stem from poor initial planning, which failed to identify all the ways the project could go wrong. Indonesia originally expected construction to cost $5.5 billion but had increased its projection to $6.07 billion as of January, five years since the project broke ground. A more recent review by Kereta Cepat Indonesia China, a joint venture among Indonesian state-owned enterprises, Chinese rail companies and the operator of the project, pegged the cost at no less than $7.97 billion. Before China secured the project, Japan had proposed building a shinkansen-style rail link from Jakarta to Bandung costing $5.29 billion at current rates, via 40-year official development assistance (ODA) loans. Click here to read…

Japan needs secret patents to guard national security: LDP’s Amari

Japan needs a way to keep patents with national security implications from being made public, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s new secretary-general told Nikkei on Oct 12, bringing intellectual property into Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s economic security push. This should be included in economic security legislation set to be submitted to parliament in 2022, Akira Amari said, warning that current law could “become an obstacle to securing a technological advantage.” While patent filings in Japan are generally made public after 18 months, other countries can block the release of applications involving technology with potential military uses, to keep them out of the hands of foreign countries or terrorist groups. In certain cases, the authorities provide compensation for forgone revenue from licensing, for example. Amari also advocated replacing nuclear power facilities nearing the end of their 40-year life span with small modular reactors, which are reputed to be safer and to take less time to build. The latest draft of the government’s basic energy plan calls for nuclear to be 20% to 22% of the power generation mix in fiscal 2030 but provides no details on the number of facilities needed for that goal. Click here to read…

Nuclear hawks under Kishida threaten Suga’s renewables push

Pro-nuclear lawmakers now hold key positions under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, sparking concern that he will stray from the prior administration’s focus on renewables to help achieve “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. New ministers in charge of Japan’s efforts to fight climate change and energy issues under the Kishida administration have vowed to stick with the net zero targets. In October 2020, then Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pledged to achieve the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 amid fanfare. He upped the ante in April by announcing that Japan would aim for a 46-percent reduction by 2030 from fiscal 2013 levels in the run-up to a session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Japan had previously targeted a 26-percent reduction. The Suga administration also spelled out the principle of prioritizing renewables such as solar and wind power over all other energy sources in government programs. The new Basic Energy Plan drafted by the Suga administration made no mention of nuclear power-related projects despite pressure from pro-nuclear lawmakers within the LDP and the nuclear industry. LDP lawmakers who support nuclear energy are unhappy about the Basic Energy Plan, which said Japan will “reduce its dependence on nuclear energy as much as possible.” Click here to read…

Strategic

US accuses China of deviating from ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’ strategy

China is deviating from its minimal nuclear deterrence strategy, the US State Department charged on Oct 18, after a report that Beijing had recently tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. “We are deeply concerned about the rapid expansion of the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China’s] nuclear capabilities, including its development of novel delivery systems,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing about a Financial Times report on Oct 16 that China had launched a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August. Denying the FT report earlier on Oct 18, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman called the launch “a routine test of a space vehicle to verify the technology of their reusability” and said that the launched object “was not a missile” with a military purpose. Price declined to comment on what information the US government had concerning the test but appeared to dismiss any attempts to play down its significance. He cited a US count of “at least” 250 ballistic missile launches by China in the nine months through September. “This is especially concerning … given the PRC’s lack of transparency into its evolving nuclear posture. Click here to read…

Time for a harder defence line on China’s borders amid ‘challenges on almost every side’

China faces increasingly serious challenges at its land and sea borders on almost every side and must urgently reinforce its defences in these regions, according to a Chinese military researcher. The assessment from Ouyang Wei, a retired professor with the PLA National Defence University, comes as the US steps up its military presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and uncertainties grow on China’s land borders with India, Afghanistan, Myanmar and North Korea. In a report published by Beijing-based think tank the Grandview Institution, Ouyang said the country was facing encroachment, secession and terrorism in some border areas. “The struggle to safeguard national unity and territorial integrity, to fight against secession and terrorism in border areas, tends to be a long game, and will be even more so now with a new period of instability in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. Ouyang said that to address the challenges, China could upgrade defence infrastructure along the coast, including its air defence identification systems and underwater warning facilities. Click here to read…

Israel claims ‘right’ to strike Iran ‘at any moment’ to prevent it from obtaining nukes, FM Lapid says after meeting with Blinken

Israel reserves the right to attack Iran at any time of its choosing, under the pretext of stopping it from acquiring a nuclear weapon, Tel Aviv’s FM Yair Lapid said after meeting with his American and Emirati counterparts. Addressing reporters after a sit-down with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed in Washington on Oct 13, Lapid insisted that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain the bomb, saying the issue was at the “center” of his visit. Though Iran has long maintained it has no interest in developing nukes, Lapid vowed that Israel would stop its supposed “race to the bomb” by any means necessary. “Israel reserves the right to act at any given moment and in any way. That is not only our right, but also our responsibility,” he said. “Iran has publicly stated it wants to wipe us out. We have no intention of letting this happen.” While the FM also spoke of improved ties with Arab neighbours through a series of normalization deals struck last year and noted that Israel had “turned the cold peace with Egypt and Jordan into a warm peace,” much of his prepared remarks focused on Iran. Click here to read…

Israel greenlights deal to double freshwater supply to Jordan in major new sales agreement between the two states

Israel’s minister of infrastructure, energy and water, Karine Elharrar has announced that Tel Aviv has formally signed off on a deal to double its freshwater supply to Jordan, in a bid to bolster “good neighbourly relations.” The deal comes months after Israel announced plans to sell 50 million cubic meters of water to Jordan, as part of renewed efforts to build cooperation between the neighbouring states by addressing a major area of disagreement which has persisted since the 1994 peace deal. Having travelled to Jordan for a signing ceremony, Elharrar said in a tweet that the deal was “an unequivocal statement” that Tel Aviv wants to secure “good neighbourly relations” with Amman. Landlocked Jordan, much of whose lands are desert, is believed to be the second-most water-insecure country in the world, according to the US-based think tank Century Foundation. The country has relied on water-supply cooperation with Israel and its antecedents dating back over a hundred years. Under the 1994 peace deal agreed between them, Israel agreed to sell Jordan 45 million cubic meters of water a year at a reduced price, with more available at 65 cents per cubic meter for one year, and then at a higher price again for a further two years. Click here to read…

Iran, Venezuela to sign 20-year cooperation accord

Iran will sign a 20-year cooperation accord with Venezuela when President Nicolas Maduro visits Tehran “in the next few months”. In a joint press conference with his Venezuelan counterpart Felix Plasencia in Tehran on Oct 18, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian announced the news and added that a joint economic cooperation commission, which will be formed in Iran’s capital before the end of the year which, will finalise the details of the agreement.“All of this confirms that relations between the two countries are on the rise,” Amirabdollahian said, adding that some of the agreements made earlier on cooperation on a wide range of issues, including energy, are currently being implemented. Plasencia’s visit to Iran came shortly after Reuters news agency reported on Oct 16 that an Iran-flagged super tanker, carrying two million barrels of heavy crude provided by the Venezuelan state-run oil firm, was about to set sail for Iran. The vessel had reportedly arrived in Venezuela last month carrying 2.1 million barrels of Iranian condensate. Click here to read…

Syrian government, opposition to start drafting constitution

The Syrian government and opposition groups have agreed to start drafting new constitutional provisions during renewed United Nations-mandated negotiations in Geneva this week. “The two co-chairs now agree that we will not only prepare for constitutional reform, but we will prepare and start drafting the constitutional reform,” UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said at a brief news conference on Oct 17. The drafting committee is comprised of 45 members from the Syrian government, opposition, and civil society. They have not met since last January. “We concluded that we were not making sufficient progress, and that we could not continue the way we have been working,” Pedersen said. “Since then, close to nine months, I’ve been negotiating between the parties, trying to establish a consensus on how we are going to move forward.”In January 2018 at the Russia-hosted Syrian peace conference in Sochi, an agreement was reached to form a 150-member committee to draft a new constitution until September 2019, equally represented by the Syrian government, political opposition, and civil society. A smaller committee of 45 individuals of that same proportion is tasked with negotiating and drafting the new constitutional provisions. Click here to read…

Analysis: How Judge Bitar’s probe shook Lebanon leaders

When the Lebanese government announced more than a year ago that the probe into the devastating explosion in Beirut’s port would be conducted domestically, few expected that senior officials would be charged. But even fewer expected that the lead investigator, Judge Tarek Bitar, could rattle the country’s entrenched leadership, which for decades has reigned with impunity and routinely quashed legal investigations that may hold it accountable. More than 200 people were killed and some 6,500 wounded when hundreds of tonnes of highly explosive ammonium nitrate fertiliser stored in the port for years ignited on August 4, 2020. The explosion wrecked large parts of Beirut and continues to haunt Lebanon, as the country struggles with an economic meltdown that plunged three-quarters of its population into poverty. No officials have been convicted yet. Bitar’s persistence to pursue senior political and security officials, despite their attempts to de-legitimise and remove him, has put the country on notice. On Oct 14, a protest in Beirut by Hezbollah and Amal supporters calling for Bitar’s removal turned into a bloodbath when unidentified snipers fired at the crowd from rooftops, triggering a gun battle that last for more than four hours. Seven civilians and combatants died. Click here to read…

Saudi Arabia ‘at the top’ of China’s Middle Eastern diplomacy

Relations with Saudi Arabia are at the top of China’s Middle Eastern diplomacy efforts, the Chinese foreign minister told his Saudi Arabian counterpart in a call on Oct 17. Wang Yi said China had always given priority to its relations with Saudi Arabia and was willing to be a long-term and reliable partner, according to a readout issued by the Chinese foreign ministry soon after his conversation with Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. Wang said China was ready to work with Saudi Arabia to deepen connections between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030”. He added that China would continue to play a constructive role in promoting the resumption of negotiations on the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal. “China has always maintained an objective and fair position on the Iran nuclear issue and committed itself to maintaining the international nuclear non-proliferation system and safeguarding the security and stability of the Gulf region in the Middle East, without any self-interest or geopolitical considerations.”At a meeting in Tashkent in July, Wang told his Saudi Arabian counterpart that China opposed external forces pointing fingers at Saudi Arabia under the banner of human rights and democracy. Click here to read…

Russia suspends NATO mission after staff expelled

Russia will suspend the activities of its diplomatic mission to NATO and close the alliance’s offices in Moscow in response to its expulsion of eight Russians in a row over spying. The moves, announced on Oct 18 by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, are set to plunge relations between Moscow and the transatlantic security body to new depths when they take effect at the start of next month. Lavrov also announced that NATO’s military liaison and information offices in Moscow would be closed, saying accreditations would be recalled at the beginning of November. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meanwhile said the expulsions were not linked to a particular event but claimed the eight individuals’ activities were not in line with their accreditations. He said NATO needed to be vigilant in the face of “malign” Russian activity and described relations with Moscow as at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. Stoltenberg cited Russia’s military build-up along Ukraine’s border and what he said were violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as evidence of “aggressive actions”. However, the council has been largely non-functioning since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Click here to read…

U.S. calls Cambodia opaque over Chinese activity at navy base

The United States on Oct 13 accused Cambodia of lacking transparency about Chinese construction activities at its biggest naval base and urged the government to disclose to its people the full scope of Beijing’s military involvement. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Oct 13 made public what it said were satellite images showing construction in August and September of three new buildings and the start of a new road. U.S. embassy spokesperson Chad Roedemeier in a statement said that any foreign military presence at Ream would violate Cambodia’s constitution and undermine regional security. “The Cambodian people deserve to know more about the project at Ream and to have a say in this type of military agreement, which has long term implications for their country.”Cambodia’s ties with the United States have frayed in recent years over U.S. allegations its ruling party is persecuting its opponents, and concerns about China’s growing influence. A year ago, Cambodia said it had razed a U.S.-funded facility at the Ream naval base to allow for further expansion. The United States said Cambodia had a year earlier turned down its offer to repair the base. Click here to read…

China’s top leaders set date for key meeting next month

The Politburo on Oct 18 decided to hold the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee from November 8 to 11, state news agency Xinhua reported. It said the leadership had sought feedback on the resolution on the party’s “major achievements and historical experience” and it would be reviewed during the plenum. The leaders concluded that while much progress had been made over the past 100 years since the party was founded, it must stay vigilant to achieve the goal of “national rejuvenation” by the middle of this century, according to the report, which called it an “irreversible process”. The November meeting will be important for President Xi Jinping to reinforce the official narrative of the party’s rule and his leadership status ahead of next year’s twice-a-decade national congress, when a major reshuffle is expected. According to observers, the resolution will become an important political document that could chart the direction of China’s ruling party for the next few decades – it has previously adopted just two similar resolutions, both at critical junctures in its history. Click here to read…

Analysis: The man who knew too much of Xi’s power plays is out

On Oct. 2, a major heavyweight with direct knowledge of President Xi Jinping’s long power struggle abruptly fell from grace. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Chinese Communist Party’s top anti-graft body, announced that former Justice Minister Fu Zhenghua has been placed under investigation on suspicion of “serious disciplinary violations.” Fu, 66, is an incumbent member of the party’s elite Central Committee. The crackdown on an influential figure who has overseen the judiciary and police has sent immeasurable shock waves through China’s political world. Fu was behind the investigations that put countless people behind bars. Now that Fu himself has been placed under investigation, doubts could also arise about the legitimacy of his past investigations. It is a momentous development. “My impression was that he was a technocrat who started with case investigations and rose through the ranks,” said one party source. “But this is a case of a man who knew too much. He was forced to leave, in quite a ruthless manner. Now, anything could happen.” One example of Fu’s work was the investigation into Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the party’s top decision-making body, the Politburo Standing Committee. Click here to read…

U.S. carrier hosts 12 senior Indian officers at Malabar ‘Quad’ drill

Members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — the U.S., Japan, Australia and India — wrapped up joint defence drills in the Indian Ocean on Oct 14, further strengthening their security partnership amid China’s growing military clout in the region. The second phase of the annual Malabar exercise, which included all four Quad members for the second straight year, had begun Oct 11, according to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. On the final day, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday, the U.S. Navy’s top commander, hosted 12 senior Indian Navy officers aboard the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier. Those visiting included Indian Chief of Naval Staff Adm. Karambir Singh and Vice Adm. A.B. Singh, commander in chief of the Eastern Naval Command. “This visit to Carl Vinson during Malabar was an important opportunity to see firsthand the integration between our two navies at-sea,” Gilday said in a U.S. Navy news release. “By our navies continuing to exercise together, as we are doing right now alongside Japanese and Australian naval forces, there is no doubt our partnership will only continue to grow. Cooperation, when applied with naval power, promotes freedom and peace, and prevents coercion, intimidation and aggression,” he said. Click here to read…

Kishida includes Quad, China in first calls; South Korea on hold

The Quad security alliance took center stage in new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s first phone calls with foreign leaders, leaving South Korea in the cold. Kishida spoke first with U.S. President Joe Biden, followed by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, both on Oct. 5. He talked with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Oct 08 before participating later that day in a teleconference with all three of them, bringing together the leaders of the Quad nations. Biden is the first leader Kishida would like to meet face to face, the prime minister said on a TV Tokyo program Oct 11. Kishida also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct 07 and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct 08. The Xi call occurred prior to the conversation with Modi, avoiding the appearance of Kishida consulting with the entire Quad before speaking to the Chinese leader. But the Japanese prime minister has yet to call South Korean President Moon Jae-in, underscoring the deep deterioration in relations between the two countries. Kishida will speak with leaders of more than 10 countries over roughly a month. Click here to read…

Countries call for urgent action on biodiversity with ‘Kunming Declaration’

More than 100 countries pledged on Oct 13 to put the protection of habitats at the heart of their government decision-making, but they stopped short of committing to specific targets to curb mass extinctions. Chinese Environment Minister Huang Runqiu told delegates to a U.N. Biodiversity Conference in the city of Kunming that the declaration they adopted was a document of political will not a binding international agreement. The Kunming Declaration calls for “urgent and integrated action” to reflect biodiversity considerations in all sectors of the global economy but crucial issues – like funding conservation in poorer countries and committing to biodiversity-friendly supply chains – have been left to discuss later. With plant and animal species loss now at the fastest rate in 10 million years, politicians, scientists and experts have been trying to lay the groundwork for a new pact on saving biodiversity. In a previous agreement signed in Aichi, Japan, in 2010, governments agreed on 20 targets to try to slow biodiversity loss and protect habitats by 2020, but none of those targets was met. At the heart of efforts to save nature is a call by the United Nations for countries to protect and conserve 30% of their territory by 2030 – a target known as ’30 by 30,’ which the conference acknowledged though it was not clear to what extent host China backed it. Click here to read…

Kishida says Fukushima wastewater release can’t be delayed

Japan’s new prime minister on Oct 17 said the planned mass disposal of wastewater stored at the tsunami-wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant cannot be delayed, despite concerns from local residents. Speaking at his first visit to the facility since taking office, Fumio Kishida said his government would work to reassure residents nearby the plant about the technical safety of the wastewater disposal project. “I felt strongly that the water issue is a crucial one that should not be pushed back,” Kishida told reporters after the tour. The government and TEPCO announced plans in April to start releasing the water into the Pacific Ocean in the spring of 2023 over the span of decades. The plan has been fiercely opposed by fishermen, residents and Japan’s neighbours, including China and South Korea. Contaminated cooling water has continued to leak from the damaged reactors since the disaster. The water has been pumped up from basements and stored in about 1,000 tanks which the operator says will reach their capacity late next year. Japanese officials say disposal of the water is indispensable for the plant cleanup, and that its release into the ocean is the most realistic option. Click here to read…

ASEAN downgrades Myanmar presence in summit in major rebuke

Southeast Asian foreign ministers have agreed to downgrade Myanmar’s participation in an upcoming summit in their sharpest rebuke yet of its leaders following a Feb. 1 military takeover. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations will invite a non-political representative instead of Myanmar’s military leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the grouping’s chair Brunei said Oct 16. ASEAN foreign ministers held an emergency meeting late Oct 15 after Myanmar refused to cooperate with the bloc’s crisis envoy, Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof. He was appointed in August to mediate in the crisis but abruptly cancelled a trip to Myanmar this week after he was told he would not be able to meet with Suu Kyi and others as he wanted. Myanmar contended Erywan could not meet with people facing legal proceedings such as Suu Kyi and deposed President Win Myint or with entities that have been declared illegal, Brunei said in a statement. The statement from the ASEAN ministers said they were concerned about the impact of the Myanmar crisis on regional security and about the “unity, credibility and centrality of ASEAN as a rules-based organization.” Click here to read…

Air strikes target capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray; 3 civilians dead

Ethiopian military air strikes hit the capital of the Tigray region and killed at least three people, witnesses said on Oct 18, returning the war abruptly to Mekelle after several months of peace. Ethiopia’s government, however, dismissed the reports.The raids, confirmed by two humanitarian workers, came days after a new military offensive was launched against the Tigray forces who have fought Ethiopian and allied forces for nearly a year. Kindeya Gebrehiwot, a spokesman for the Tigray authorities who lives in Mekelle, told The Associated Press a market was bombed on a busy shopping day and many people were wounded. Another resident, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, said the first air strike occurred just outside the city and three children from the same family were killed. The resident said at least seven people were wounded in the second attack, which also badly damaged a hotel. Mekelle has not seen fighting since late June, when the Tigray forces retook much of the region and Ethiopian troops withdrew. Since then, Ethiopia’s federal government has called all able citizens to crush the Tigray fighters who dominated the national government for 27 years before being sidelined by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Click here to read…

Nigeria’s Gangs Raised Millions by Kidnapping Children. Now the Government Can’t Stop Them

In the forests of northwest Nigeria, loosely organized criminal gangs that raised funds kidnapping schoolchildren are now flush with arms and operating beyond the reach of an increasingly fragile state. In some instances, government officials in Africa’s most populous nation have been paying the gangs to return stolen weapons and kidnapped personnel, according to confidential documents and interviews with senior military officials, soldiers and independent mediators, and one of the gang leaders. Nigeria’s government—still battling Islamic State militants in the northeast—refers to the lesser-known criminal groups in its northwest as “bandits.” But soldiers, intelligence officers and mediators who have visited their camps describe a surfeit of munitions. “Criminal factions appear to be better equipped with larger-capacity advanced weaponry than national security agencies,” said a confidential internal report presented to the president in July. Nigeria’s Air Force said in a statement that allegations it had made payments to armed bandits were “fake news.” Several senior security officials described mass kidnapping for ransom as Nigeria’s primary new security crisis. Click here to read…

Medical

G20 officials back fairer vaccine distribution

G20 trade ministers on Oct 12 promised to work towards a fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines by lifting export restrictions and making the trade system more transparent. Their final statement, adopted after a meeting in southern Italy, was a sign of the return of multilateralism, said Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio.”We have to ensure that there is greater circulation of vaccines and that there are production factories in the developing countries,” French trade minister Franck Riester said. While more than 6 billion vaccine doses have been produced and administered worldwide, only 1.4 percent of people in poor countries have been fully vaccinated, compared to 58 percent in rich countries, World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said earlier in October. Ahead of the WTO’s ministerial conference set for November 30 to December 3 in Geneva, she called on members to agree on a strong response to the pandemic based on a fairer sharing of the vaccines. Riester said another issue was getting vaccine-makers to waive intellectual property rights to allow production around the world. Click here to read…

EU becomes largest Covid vaccine exporter, shipping ‘over one billion’ doses worldwide

Having shipped at least a billion jabs since the global rollout began in December 2020, the bloc has been the biggest exporter of Covid vaccines, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen has announced. Delivering a statement on Oct 18, von der Leyen outlined the scale of the EU’s Covid vaccine distribution scheme. It has so far shipped doses to more than 150 countries. “Very clearly, the European Union is the largest exporter of Covid-19 vaccines,” she stated, marking the bloc’s “important milestone” of having delivered “over one billion” doses in the past 10 months. The EU has been working to send Covid vaccines around the globe since December 2020, primarily to larger nations, but also to smaller, poorer ones that are vulnerable to the virus. The milestone has been passed despite the EU having introduced a mechanism that monitors and potentially limits vaccine exports, with the measure being extended from an initial September deadline to the end of 2021. According to the EC, the EU is currently sending at least every second dose produced in the EU abroad. Last month, the bloc agreed to send a further 200 million doses to Africa and to low-income countries. Click here to read…

Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 04 October- 10 October

October 12, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

China’s housing bubble fuelled its spectacular growth, but is the country ready for a day of reckoning?

China’s indebted property developers are symptoms, rather than the cause, of its housing problem. The nation’s real estate boom, which started in 1999 when then premier Zhu Rongji privatised home ownership, is one of the most spectacular economic phenomena in recent history. It has profoundly changed China’s urban landscape and improved living standards for hundreds of millions of people. But it has also titled wealth towards the state and capital over labour, and, more importantly, changed the notion among many Chinese that wealth is built by saving, not borrowing. China’s property machine has been sustained by three key ingredients: a land supply system borrowed directly from Hong Kong, where the municipal government has a monopoly; an extraordinary monetary easing cycle where broad money supply has increased 20 times over the past two decades; and a nationwide zeal to invest household wealth into property, rather than other assets. It is no secret that authorities depend on revenue from land sales to property developers to meet operational costs. Chinese cities would be in a terrible state if these funds dried up. The banking system’s exposure to the property sector is another interesting point of debate. Click here to read…

China raises cap on electricity prices to tackle power shortage

China will take further steps to ensure sufficient electricity supplies for the coming winter and spring, including raising the cap on prices, China’s cabinet said in a statement after an executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Oct 09. The State Council also said it will prioritize winter coal and natural gas supplies to ensure people’s livelihoods in northern China, particularly residential heating in north-eastern provinces, according to the statement. The measures come as China grapples with large-scale power shortages that since September have affected 10 provinces, including Heilongjiang and Jiangsu. High coal prices — amid government-mandated cuts to coal production capacity and carbon-reduction measures — combined with a relatively low cap on electricity prices meant that power generators were selling below cost. This meant they cut power output at a time when an economic recovery is driving factories to consume a lot more electricity. In late September, China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), urged miners and power companies to sign additional long-term contracts to guarantee the thermal coal supply. This week, dozens of coal mines in Inner Mongolia were told to boost their production by more than half. Click here to read…

EU Commission should buy gas on behalf of member states, Spanish PM suggests as solution to spiralling energy prices

Spain’s prime minister has proposed that the European Commission (EC) negotiate gas contracts on behalf of all EU member states in order to strengthen cooperation amid soaring gas prices on the global marketplace. Speaking on Oct 06, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proposed a novel solution to the spiralling cost of gas in Europe, suggesting the EU’s executive body could buy on its member states’ behalf. “The proposal our government is making is that the EU Commission negotiate on behalf of all 27 member states,” Sanchez told reporters after an EU summit held in Slovenia. “Then what we propose is a strengthened cooperation, in which the countries who want it can join and the Commission would negotiate.” Sanchez added that this proposal involved the EC negotiating in collaboration with private companies. The concept has been backed by Italy. Earlier on Oct 06, the EU said it would review the way the bloc’s power market is organized and consider a revamp of the regulations. On Oct 06, European gas prices reached record highs, rising sharply to above $1,900 per 1,000 cubic meters, equivalent to $186 per megawatt-hour in household terms. Click here to read…

Energy crunch: Qatar says LNG production ‘maxed out’

Qatar, the world’s largest seller of liquefied natural gas (LNG), told consumers it was powerless to cool energy prices as steelmakers in the United Kingdom said they could be forced to halt output in the face of soaring costs. The global rebound in economic activity after the easing of coronavirus lockdowns has laid bare a shortage of natural gas stocks and other fuel supplies, squeezing consumer budgets and causing blackouts in some countries. To keep factories open and homes heated, industry executives and governments are having to pay much more for energy and revert to coal and oil, the most polluting fossil fuels. As some generators switched to burning oil, crude futures jumped to multi-year highs on Oct 11, with analysts predicting that prices will stay strong.LNG prices, which sank to record lows at the height of pandemic lockdowns, have surged this year to record highs, but Qatar said it has no supplies available to calm the market. “We are maxed out, as far as we have given all our customers their due quantities,” said Qatar Minister of Energy Saad al-Kaabi. “I am unhappy about gas prices being high.”Across the globe, the high prices are pressuring governments and industry, which has warned of the risk of job losses and costs being passed on to customers and consumers. Click here to read…

Afghan food prices soar as imports from Pakistan squeezed

Food prices are spiralling in Afghanistan as the local currency plummets under selling pressure and imports from Pakistan decline steeply due to a U.S. dollar shortage that prevents traders making payments. Zia-ul-Haq Sarhadi, vice president of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI), told Nikkei Asia that food shipments from Pakistan to Afghanistan have reduced to a trickle largely because of the Taliban limiting weekly bank withdrawals to $200 — about 20,000 Afghanis. According to Sarhadi, only cement shipments paid for before the Taliban returned to Kabul are crossing the border at Torkham, Pakistan’s northwest border post with Afghanistan. He told Nikkei that less than 200 trucks were coming across each day compared to more than 1,000 a few weeks ago. The Taliban’s withdrawal caps are meant to prevent a currency flight while the U.S. continues to block access to Afghanistan’s dollar reserves of around $9.5 billion in American banks. The IMF and the World Bank have also stopped dollar-denominated aid, which amounted to around 43% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Click here to read…

Hong Kong to build 1m homes near China border to speed integration

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has announced plans to create a new “metropolis” of up to 2.5 million people near the border with mainland China, looking to tie the former British colony closer to neighbouring cities to boost regional development and tackle a chronic housing shortage. In the fifth and final annual policy address of her term on Oct 06, Lam defended the national security law and political overhaul imposed by Beijing in the wake of widespread antigovernment protests in 2019, emphasizing the need to strengthen pride in and loyalty to China for Hong Kong’s long-term prosperity. The new “Northern Metropolis” would cover nearly 300 sq. km along the city’s border with Shenzhen. Envisaged as an international information and technology hub, it would include up to 926,000 apartments and a new rail link to Shenzhen’s Qianhai district. Beijing last month announced plans to expand the area of the Qianhai zone, where it has been experimenting with financial and other reforms, by eight times to boost integration with Hong Kong. Click here to read…

Pakistan and China unveil ambitious plan to develop Karachi coast

In an ambitious turn, Pakistan and China have agreed to develop the Karachi coast, possibly shifting away from Gwadar as the center stage of the Belt and Road project in Pakistan, following ongoing problems at the south-western province of Balochistan. A memorandum of understanding was signed for the Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone project during the recently held 10th Joint Cooperation Committee meeting of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, after a gap of almost two years. Based on details shared by Pakistan, China will invest $3.5 billion, separately confirmed by a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, in the project which includes adding new berths to Karachi port, developing a new fisheries port and a 640-hectare trade zone on the western backwater marshland of the Karachi Port Trust. The project also envisages building a harbor bridge connecting the port with the nearby Manora islands. Gwadar has proved to be a problematic area for Chinese investment. In August, a suicide bombing targeting a vehicle carrying Chinese nationals in the area killed two children and wounded three. Separatist militants have waged a long-running insurgency in Balochistan. Click here to read…

HSBC boss Noel Quinn: Complex geopolitical landscape a ‘fact of life’ for global banks

Navigating a complex geopolitical landscape that includes financial sanctions is a “fact of life” for international banks and one that can continue to be managed in today’s charged environment, according to Noel Quinn, the CEO of HSBC. There remains a need for financial institutions, such as HSBC that can act as bridge between East and West for commerce and trade, said Quinn in a wide-ranging keynote session at the Sibos 2021 conference. “Our clients still want to be international. They still have needs on a global basis and they’re asking us to help them with those global needs,” Quinn said. “My job is to help this organisation navigate those geopolitics, be very focused on helping our clients navigate their business model needs and remaining focused on the long term, not just the short term.” As Hong Kong’s biggest currency-issuing lender, London-based HSBC has found itself caught in the middle of rising tensions between China and the United States in the past three years, from the arrest of Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou to the implementation of a controversial national security law for Hong Kong last year. Click here to read…

China’s Xinjiang faces hidden risk from debt-heavy XPCC, with spending tipped to rise after US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Spending on public security and poverty reduction in China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region is expected to increase after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, but indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including the sprawling Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), are already putting pressure on local government finances. Washington has targeted Chinese officials and Xinjiang-based companies, including XPCC, for what it alleges are serious human rights abuses in the region – something Beijing has repeatedly denied. XPCC is at the heart of international tensions over Xinjiang because of its influential position in the local economy and its central role in ensuring social stability and security. Established in 1954, XPCC – which is also known as “Bingtuan” – operates as a business and paramilitary entity. Today, it controls at least 20 per cent of Xinjiang’s gross domestic product (GDP), with cotton one of its most important goods, and has about 2.7 million members, accounting for 12 per cent of the region’s total population. But the organisation’s massive spending on projects ranging from poverty alleviation and surveillance to re-education camps to counter “religious extremism” make it a potential contingent risk for the Xinjiang government, some observers say. Click here to read…

Japan’s new PM Fumio Kishida defends pro-nuclear stance in parliamentary debut

Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Oct 11 defended his pronuclear energy policies, saying that restarting nuclear power plants mothballed since the 2011 Fukushima disaster was vital. Energy became a key issue during the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) recent leadership race, during which Kishida beat Taro Kono, a former vaccine minister who had spoken out against nuclear energy, to become prime minister. “It’s crucial that we restart nuclear power plants,” Kishida said as he faced opposition questions in parliament for the first time since becoming prime minister last week. Kishida was responding to questions from Yukio Edano, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), on the government’s policy for sustainable energy and if nuclear power would be part of the plan. Nuclear energy has been contentious in Japan, especially since a 2011 earthquake off the coast triggered a tsunami that smashed into a nuclear power plant in the Fukushima region north of Tokyo, causing one of the world’s worst nuclear accidents. All of Japan’s nuclear power plants were shut down after the disaster, which highlighted failings in regulation and oversight. While some reactors have been coming back on stream, most remain shut. Click here to read…

Global tax deal seeks to end havens, criticized for ‘no teeth’

A group of 136 countries on Oct 08 set a minimum global tax rate of 15% for big companies and sought to make it harder for them to avoid taxation in a landmark deal that U.S. President Joe Biden said levelled the playing field. The deal aims to end a four-decade-long “race to the bottom” by setting a floor for countries that have sought to attract investment and jobs by taxing multinational companies lightly, effectively allowing them to shop around for low tax rates. The 15% floor agreed to is, however, well below a corporate tax rate which averages around 23.5% in industrialized countries. Some developing countries that had wanted a higher rate said their interests had been sidelined to accommodate richer nations, while NGOs criticized the deal’s many exemptions, with Oxfam saying it effectively had “no teeth.” The accord also promises to be a tough sell in Washington, where a group of Republican U.S. senators sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying they had serious concerns. Negotiations have been going on for four years, with the deal finally agreed when Ireland, Estonia and Hungary dropped their opposition and signed up. Click here to read…

Thanks to sanctions, Iran loses foreign investors

As the Raisi administration continues to refuse to chart a clear path for the resumption of the stalled nuclear talks with world powers in Vienna, and the removal of the daunting sanctions on Iran remain improbable, things are getting worse for the average Iranian. The naked truth about the oil-rich country is the unchecked entrenchment of poverty has been worsened by the government’s soaring budget deficit and the withdrawal of foreign investors who once helped prop up different sectors of the economy. In 2019, and in a bid to incentivize the influx of foreign capital and resources into Iran, the moderate Rouhani administration proposed an initiative whereby international investors lending credit to Iranian banks and financial institutions worth $250,000 or more or investing a similar amount in Iran’s infrastructural and industrial projects, would be granted five-year residency permits as well as other educational, healthcare, employment benefits and public services. Now, in a rare admission of the failure of the ambitious plan, Iran’s deputy minister of interior Babak Dinparast revealed in late September that after more than two years, “not even a single” foreign investor has signed up to benefit from the scheme, and that it hasn’t paid off as first thought. Click here to read…

New plan to bolster China’s standard-setting ability in crucial technologies

China aims to boost standard-setting in many crucial technological sectors, including high-speed rail, new-energy and smart vehicles and robots, as part of efforts to bolster innovation, opening-up and high-quality growth, according to a development plan jointly issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, the cabinet, released on Oct 10. Analysts said the plan is conducive to China’s strategy of high-quality development, and it will make China’s standardization work more internationalized. It will also pave the way for a greater role for Chinese companies in the global markets once the issue of differences among standards is ironed out, they said. By 2035, China’s standardization work will be an open and integrated system driven by market forces and guided by the government, with full participation by companies and the public. The development plan calls for scientific and research fruits in 50 percent of all projects concerned with shared key technologies and applied science and technology, and for the time required for setting national standards to be reduced to under 18 months from currently two years. Click here to read…

Economics Nobel honours ‘natural experiments’, from minimum wage to migration

Economists David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens won the 2021 Nobel economics prize on Oct 11 for pioneering “natural experiments” to show real-world economic impacts in areas from minimum wage increases in the U.S. fast-food sector to migration from Castro-era Cuba. Unlike in medicine or other sciences, economists cannot conduct rigidly controlled clinical trials. Instead, natural experiments use real-life situations to study impacts on the world, an approach that has spread to other social sciences. “Their research has substantially improved our ability to answer key causal questions, which has been of great benefit to society,” says Peter Fredriksson, chair of the Economic Sciences Prize Committee. Past Nobel Economics prizes have been dominated by U.S. institutions and this was no exception. Canada-born Card currently works at the University of California, Berkeley; Angrist, a dual U.S. and Israeli citizen, at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and Dutch-born Imbens at Stanford University. Click here to read…

Strategic

13th round of India-China Corps Commander Level Meeting

The 13th round of India-China Corps Commander Level Meeting was held at Chushul-Moldo border meeting point on 10th October 2021. During the meeting the discussions between the two sides focussed on resolution of the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. The Indian side pointed out that the situation along the LAC had been caused by unilateral attempts of Chinese side to alter the status quo and in violation of the bilateral agreements. It was therefore necessary that the Chinese side take appropriate steps in the remaining areas so as to restore peace and tranquillity along the LAC in the Western Sector. This would also be in accord with the guidance provided by the two Foreign Ministers in their recent meeting in Dushanbe where they had agreed that the two sides should resolve the remaining issues at the earliest. The Indian side emphasised such resolution of the remaining areas would facilitate progress in the bilateral relations. During the meeting, the Indian side therefore made constructive suggestions for resolving the remaining areas, but the Chinese side was not agreeable and also could not provide any forward-looking proposals. Click here to read…

Tsai says Taiwan will not bow to Chinese pressure

President Tsai Ing-wen said Oct 10 that Taiwan won’t bow to pressure to give up its sovereignty, a day after Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to bring the democratic island under Beijing’s control. “The more we achieve, the greater the pressure we face from China,” Tsai said during a national holiday speech to an audience of thousands outside the presidential building in Taipei. “We hope for an easing of cross-strait relations and will not act rashly, but there should be absolutely no illusions that the Taiwanese people will bow to pressure.” Taiwan faces a growing threat from China, but the world is waking up to the island’s importance as a democratic partner on the front lines of Beijing’s authoritarian expansion, Tsai said. She pointed to the recent and ongoing dismantling of democracy and civil liberties in Hong Kong as proof of Beijing’s threat to free societies. “I want to remind all my fellow citizens that we do not have the privilege of letting down our guard,” Tsai said. Later in the day, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office denounced Tsai’s speech, saying it incited confrontation and distorted facts, according to Reuters. Click here to read…

French senators meet with Taiwan’s Tsai at tense time

A group of French senators visiting Taiwan as part of a regular parliamentary exchange met with President Tsai Ing-wen on Oct 07 morning during a trip that comes in a particularly tense moment between Taiwan and China.Tsai spoke briefly before their meeting, giving France’s former defense minister, Alain Richard, the Order of Propitious Clouds, a distinction recognizing “his contributions to Taiwan-France relations.” She thanked him for leading an effort in the French Senate to pass a resolution in support of allowing Taiwan to participate in international organizations like the World Health Organization.China tried to discourage the French senators’ visit, with its embassy in France saying ahead of the trip that it would undermine China-France relations.Richard along with the three other senators also plan to meet Taiwanese economic and health officials and the Mainland Affairs Council on their five-day visit. This is the third visit to Taiwan for Richard, a former French defense minister, who previously visited Taiwan in 2015 and 2018. He heads the Taiwan Friendship group in the French Senate.The senators’ trip is a recurrent one that French lawmakers make as part of the Taiwan Friendship group; especially as new senators are elected every three years. Click here to read…

U.S. does not deny involvement in training Taiwan troops

The U.S. has not denied reports that it has sent troops to train military forces in Taiwan for at least a year, working to bolster the island’s ability to defend itself amid growing concerns of an armed conflict with China.Marines and a special operations unit have been training ground and maritime forces there on rotational deployments, the Wall Street Journal reported Oct 07. A Pentagon spokesman did not deny the training of Taiwan’s forces when asked, declining to comment on “specific operations, engagements or training.”China “has stepped up efforts to intimidate and pressure Taiwan, including increasing military activities conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan … which we believe are destabilizing and increase the risk of miscalculation,” the spokesman said. This move toward signalling U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s defense seems intended to curb recent provocations by China that have ratcheted up tensions around the Taiwan Strait. “My understanding is that the United States has been doing training like this for many years. We just don’t publicize it,” a former senior U.S. military official said. The Pentagon had dismissed similar reports last November of planned exercises involving U.S. Marines in southern Taiwan as “inaccurate.” Click here to read…

Malaysia summons Chinese ambassador over South China Sea vessels

The Malaysian government summoned China’s ambassador to formally protest alleged encroachment into its South China Sea waters by Chinese vessels, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Oct 05. Despite overt displays of warm ties earlier this year, Putrajaya registered its strong objection in a meeting with Ambassador Ouyang Yujing on Oct 04. The ministry said it had detected the presence of Chinese vessels, including a survey ship, in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone off the coasts of its Bornean states. “Malaysia’s consistent position and actions are based on international law, in defense of our sovereignty and sovereign rights in our waters,” the ministry said in a statement. “In determining Malaysia’s position and course of action with regard to the South China Sea issue, which is complex and involves inter-state relations, Malaysia’s national interests will remain of paramount importance.” The flare-up in the dispute takes the new Malaysian government of Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob into difficult territory. While standing by its maritime rights, Kuala Lumpur has sought positive relations with China of late, including in the fight against COVID-19. Click here to read…

CIA creates working group on China as threats keep rising

The CIA said Oct 07 it will create a top-level working group on China as part of a broad U.S. government effort focused on countering Beijing’s influence.The group will become one of fewer than a dozen mission centres operated by the CIA, with weekly director-level meetings intended to drive the agency’s strategy toward China. China is an especially difficult challenge for the U.S. intelligence community given the insularity of its Communist Party leadership, its large military and security services and its development in advanced technologies that can counter spying. In a statement Oct 07, CIA Director William Burns called the Chinese government “the most important geopolitical threat we face in the 21st century.” “Throughout our history, CIA has stepped up to meet whatever challenges come our way,” Burns said. “And now facing our toughest geopolitical test in a new era of great power rivalry, CIA will be at the forefront of this effort.”As part of agency reorganization, the CIA will fold mission centres on Iran and North Korea into existing groups covering each country’s respective region. Both country-specific mission centres were created during President Donald Trump’s administration. Click here to read…

Biden and Xi explore ‘recoupling’ as advisers meet in Zurich

U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Switzerland to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi, the White House announced Oct 05, a sign that the two sides are seeking to lower the temperature after years of rising tensions. Bloomberg reported Oct 05 that Chinese diplomats have informed their G-20 counterparts that Xi does not currently plan to attend the summit in Italy. But a potential trip to an African forum could provide an opening for a Biden-Xi Rome summit. China is preparing to hold the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Senegal in the first week of November. Eight months into his presidency, and after a bruising exit from Afghanistan, Biden is seeking a new phase of “relentless diplomacy.” His trade representative Katherine Tai told the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies on Oct 05 that the administration will be looking for a “recoupling” with China rather than decoupling. At the Zurich meeting, the two sides “will follow up on President Biden’s Sept. 9 call with President Xi as we continue to seek to responsibly manage the competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China,” the White House statement said. Click here to read…

As US returns to the UN Human Rights Council, it confronts an increasingly forceful China

The latest US effort to challenge China’s expanding global footprint will take place on Oct 06 when Washington is expected to return to the United Nations Human Rights Council at a time when Beijing is working overtime to blunt criticism over its crackdown in Xinjiang and revamp the UN in line with its world view. But Washington faces risks, added Limon, a former British diplomat at the council from 2006 to 2012. “China is now the biggest player in town, has exploited the vacuum, upped their game and introduced a lot of initiatives to try and give a Chinese flavour to things.” The US left the council in 2018 under former president Donald Trump, a vocal sceptic of multilateral organisations. The Biden administration has prioritised returning, arguing that democracies must confront authoritarian states at the UN and elsewhere in concert with partners and allies. In theory, nations on the 47-seat Geneva-based council are elected. In reality, seats are often determined in advance within geographical blocs, frequently involving “back room deals, closed slates, and secret ballots”, according to a Brookings Institution report. The 18 seats up for election on Wednesday are uncontested, and Italy has relinquished its seat for the US. Click here to read…

Taliban calls for improved ‘diplomatic relations’ with US after ‘candid talks’ in Doha, welcomes humanitarian aid

The Taliban has said that the US agreed to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, insisting it should come with no strings attached after talks in Qatar. Washington called the meeting “candid” and “professional. In a statement released in the wake of two-day talks with US officials in Doha, Qatar, the Taliban said that the US promised to “give humanitarian assistance to Afghans” and “provide facilities for other humanitarian organizations to deliver aid.” The US delegation and representatives of the Taliban discussed “all relevant issues” during the meeting that took place over the weekend, the group said, without elaborating further. Despite US President Joe Biden’s administration refusal to recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government, the group said that it was ready to mend relations with Washington. The US State Department struck a similarly optimistic tone, describing the talks as “candid and professional,” but added that the US was not taking the Taliban at its word. In a statement that was short on detail, State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the “security and terrorism concerns,” the evacuation of stranded American citizens and allies, as well as women’s rights, dominated the agenda of the meeting. Click here to read…

U.S. F-35B jets used in test for MSDF’s future aircraft carrier

U.S. F-35B fighter jets took off from and landed on the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s destroyer Izumo in a test off the Shikoku region on Oct. 3, the Defense Ministry said Oct. 5.The ministry plans to convert the helicopter-carrying destroyer into an aircraft carrier, and the test was designed to check the heat-resistance of the renovated deck. The F-35B is a stealth fighter capable of short takeoffs and vertical landings. The ministry plans to deploy the aircraft to Air Self-Defense Force’s Nyutabaru Air Base in Miyazaki Prefecture. Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi revealed the test at an Oct. 5 news conference after the Cabinet meeting. It was the first time for F-35Bs to use an MSDF naval vessel for takeoffs and landings. The F-35Bs used in the test belong to the U.S. Marine Corps. “This will improve interoperability between Japan and the United States, leading to strengthened deterrence and responding abilities of the Japan-U.S. alliance,” Kishi said. At the end of 2018, the defense program outline and midterm defense program included plans to convert Izumo-type destroyers into virtual aircraft carriers to strengthen air defense on Japan’s Pacific side, where there are fewer airfields. Click here to read…

Muqtada al-Sadr set to win Iraq vote, former PM al-Maliki second

Shia Muslim religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s party is set to be the biggest winner in Iraq’s parliamentary election, increasing the number of seats he holds, according to initial results, officials and a spokesperson for the Sadrist Movement. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki looked set to have the next largest win among Shia parties, the initial results showed on Oct 11. Iraq’s Shia groups have dominated governments and government formation since the US-led invasion of 2003 that toppled Sunni leader Saddam Hussein and catapulted the Shia majority and the Kurds to power. Oct 10’s election was held several months early, in response to mass protests in 2019 that toppled a government and showed widespread anger against political leaders whom many Iraqis said have enriched themselves at the expense of the country. But a record low turnout of 41 percent suggested that an election billed as an opportunity to wrest control from the ruling elite would do little to dislodge sectarian religious parties in power since 2003. Click here to read…

‘Looming disaster’: Oil ship leak threatens millions of Yemenis

A team of researchers from Stanford University, Harvard University, and UC Berkeley released the findings of their models on the impact of an oil spill from the FSO Safer in a paper published on Oct 11 in the Nature Sustainability journal. The researchers stressed urgent action was required to stop a “looming disaster” that would affect an estimated nine million people who would be without drinking water, and shut down Yemen’s main ports, thereby worsening the country’s humanitarian crisis. About 68 percent of humanitarian aid to Yemen enters through the ports of Hodeidah and Salif, which lie near to the stricken Safer, and more than half of Yemen’s population depends on humanitarian aid. “The spill and its potentially disastrous impacts remain entirely preventable through offloading the oil,” the study said. FSO Safer has not been maintained since the start of the conflict in Yemen in 2015, and negotiations between the United Nations and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who control the ship and the area of Yemen’s coast nearest to it, remain at a standstill.However, it also contains 1.1 million barrels of oil, an amount that is four times the amount spilled in the world’s most environmentally damaging oil spill – the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster. Click here to read…

ASEAN ministers weigh excluding Myanmar junta leader from summit: Envoy

Southeast Asian countries are discussing not inviting the head of Myanmar’s junta to a summit this month, due to the military’s failure to make progress on an agreed roadmap to restore peace in the strife-torn country, a regional envoy said onOct 06. The junta’s inaction on a five-point plan it agreed in April with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was “tantamount to backtracking”, Erywan Yusof, the bloc’s special envoy to Myanmar, told a news conference. Erywan, the second foreign minister of ASEAN chair Brunei, said the junta had not directly responded to his requests to meet detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose government was overthrown in a Feb 1 coup led by military chief Min Aung Hlaing. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the coup, which ended a decade of tentative democracy and prompted outrage at home and abroad at the return of military rule. Click here to read…

Germany: SPD, Greens and FDP resume coalition talks after tight election

Germany’s election-winning Social Democratic Party (SPD) kicked off a second round of “in-depth exploratory coalition talks” with the third-place Greens and fourth-place Free Democratic Party (FDP) in Berlin on Oct 11 morning. The three parties previously met Oct 07 and scheduled 10 hours of negotiations for Oct 11. Four more hours of talks have been scheduled for Oct 12 morning, before SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz departs for a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Washington, DC. More talks between the leaders of the so-called “traffic light” coalition parties — a reference to their party colours — are set to take place on Oct 15 after Scholz returns to Berlin from the United States. No statements on the progress of the talks were expected on Oct 11, with all parties underscoring the need for discretion. Party representatives said they hope to present initial results toward the end of the week. Thus far, none of the negotiators have given details as to the state of talks, only that there are differences of opinion in a number of areas, the two most fundamental being finance and the environment. Click here to read…

Germany, France and Russia may hold summit on Ukraine conflict

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Oct 11 regarding a solution to the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s office said the four countries may soon meet for a summit on the conflict, in what is known as the Normandy format. The German and French governments have previously mediated between Russia and Ukraine as part of this diplomatic arrangement. The Kremlin also called for a summit on the conflict but did not mention whether Ukrainian officials would take part in the meetings. The Russian government said European leaders have asked their respective foreign ministers to “intensify their contacts” and work on the “difficult” situation in Ukraine. A concrete date for the meeting has not yet been determined, though Merkel spokesperson Steffen Seibert did confirm plans for the gathering. Merkel visited Ukraine and Russia in August and expressed hope that peace negotiations between Ukraine and pro-Russia separatists would continue after she left office. Click here to read…

Medical

China PCR test orders soared before first confirmed COVID case

Purchases of PCR tests in China’s Hubei Province surged months before the first official reports of a novel coronavirus case there according to a report by Australia-based Cybersecurity Company Internet 2.0. About 67.4 million yuan ($10.5 million at current rates) was spent on PCR tests in Hubei during 2019, nearly double the 2018 total, with the upswing starting in May, according to the report. Internet 2.0 collected and analyzed data from a website that aggregates information on public procurement bids in China. The analysis team consists of former officials from intelligence agencies in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and other countries. The report casts further doubt on China’s official line about the origins of the virus, a topic that has fuelled tensions between Beijing and Washington. China’s foreign ministry has disputed the report’s findings. The report alleges the unusual uptick likely signals awareness of a new disease spreading in and around Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province.Orders doubled from universities, jumped fivefold from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and surged tenfold from animal testing bureaus. Purchases from hospitals declined by more than 10%. Click here to read…

Over 50 million people suffered from major depressive disorders in 2020 due to Covid-19 pandemic, new global study estimates

The coronavirus pandemic added to the burden of depressive and anxiety disorders in over 200 countries last year, a new study shows, saying the impact of Covid-19 has increased the number of depressed people by nearly a third. While “mental disorders were leading causes of the global health-related burden” even before the pandemic, the spread of the dreaded virus and subsequent restrictive measures to fight the disease have considerably added to the load, a study published in The Lancet medical journal on Oct 08 suggests. An extra 53.2 million cases — an increase of 27.6% — of major depressive disorders and 76.2 million cases of anxiety disorders have added to the number of people suffering from mental health issues, according to researchers. To measure the pandemic’s impact on any given area, the team analyzed daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, restrictions on human mobility, and daily excess mortality rates. It turned out that the locations hit hardest based on the first two criteria corresponded to those with a documented spike in depressive and anxiety disorders, with the study concluding that increasing infections and decreasing mobility are “significantly associated” with worsening mental health. Click here to read…

WHO backs Covid-19 booster jab for people with weak immune systems

The World Health Organization has recommended booster shots for people with weak immune systems as they are less likely to respond adequately to the standard course of vaccinations. On Oct 11, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) vaccine advisory group said that people with compromised immune systems should be given a Covid-19 booster shot. “Moderately and severely immune-compromised persons should be offered an additional dose,” the WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization said. “These individuals are less likely to respond adequately to vaccination following a standard primary vaccine series and are at high risk of severe Covid-19,” they added. The WHO has previously warned developed nations against administering booster shots, claiming that they should be focusing on sharing their vaccines with poorer nations around the world to ensure a larger proportion of the global population is inoculated. Last week, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended that people with a weak immune system receive a third dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. Click here to read…

Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 27 September- 03 October

October 5, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

$385bn of China’s Belt and Road lending kept undisclosed: report

A staggering $385 billion of Chinese debt to other countries has been hidden from the World Bank and IMF thanks to the way the loans are structured, U.S.-based AidData said on Sept 29 in its latest version of the Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset. The report also alleges that a major portion of Chinese development financing in Pakistan is composed of expensive loans. The AidData report claims Beijing has made its overseas development finance non-transparent. It says that China systematically underreports its debt to the World Bank’s Debtor Reporting System by lending money to private companies in lower middle-income countries by using special purpose vehicles (SPVs), rather than to state institutions. This makes it difficult for debtors and multilateral lenders to assess the costs and benefits of participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. It also heightens the possibility of debtors falling into debt traps with only one way to climb out: by selling geopolitically important assets to China. The report further says that due to debt spending by China under the banner of the Belt and Road Initiative, 42 countries now have levels of public debt exposure to China in excess of 10% of GDP. Click here to read…

U.S. sanctions spur China and Russia to build up cross-border links

A 2,200-meter rail bridge across the Amur River, between China and Russia, was completed in August this year, part of a push to deepen economic ties between the two countries facing U.S. sanctions. The new bridge is a boon for companies that move goods across the China-Russia border. “We’ll be able to slash shipping times once the rail bridge opens up,” said an employee at one trading company based in China’s north-eastern Heilongjiang Province. Her company currently uses ships to move shipments across the river, and then loads them onto trucks on the other side. But the once the bridge begins operations — sometime between January and March — according to Russian media, shipping will become much faster. Beijing and Moscow have historically not always been close. But their shared rivalry with Washington has spurred greater cooperation between the neighbouring powers, which aim to nearly double bilateral trade by 2024. A car bridge that connects the Heilongjiang city of Heihe and the Russian province of Amur was also completed in 2019. Though still not open to traffic due to increased border restrictions from the coronavirus, locals believe it will play a key role in the development of the area. Click here to read…

EU pushes back Australia trade talks over France submarine snub

The European Union has postponed free trade talks with Australia, signalling that tensions remained high after Canberra’s decision to cancel a $40 billion submarine contract with France. The Australian government said Oct 01 that talks with Brussels scheduled for mid-October have now been pushed back to November; although it stressed that the process will continue. The move comes two weeks after Canberra formed a new defense partnership with the U.S. and the U.K. called AUKUS, which led to the cancellation of the large-scale submarine deal with France. The postponement of the trade talks may make it difficult to sign a deal by year-end as the two sides had hoped. With a French presidential election coming next spring, Paris cannot readily back down from its hard-line stance because of public opinion. The negotiations have assumed greater importance for Canberra as its relationship with Beijing deteriorates. China buys more than 30% of Australia’s exports but has been imposing trade barriers such as high tariffs on agricultural products. A deal with the EU, which accounted for less than 4% of Australia’s exports, last year at 17 billion Australian dollars ($12.3 billion), would give Canberra a much-needed opportunity to diversify. Click here to read…

China develops passenger jet, but 40% of parts suppliers are overseas

A Chinese-made passenger jet set to compete with American and European rivals counts roughly 40% of its core component suppliers as overseas companies, exposing the risks posed by U.S. trade frictions to a plane that has been under development for more than a decade. The C919 jetliner, being manufactured by the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or COMAC, is due to be delivered to the first customer by the end of the year. However, with that deadline looming, the plane was a no-show at the Air show China in Zhuhai on Sept 30. COMAC instead exhibited a life-size model of the cabin. It is widely believed that the C919 is approaching the conclusion of its development, which began in 2008. But potential turbulence lays ahead for the C919’s business prospects. Out of the 39 lead suppliers for the plane, more than 40% hail from the U.S. or other countries outside China, according to documents from China-based brokerage Avic Securities and other sources. The remaining suppliers include joint venture firms backed by foreign companies. The share of parts sourced from non-Chinese companies appears to rise even higher when tallied in terms of value. Click here to read…

Fed Prepares to Launch Review of Possible Central Bank Digital Currency

The Federal Reserve plans as early as this week to launch a review of the potential benefits and risks of issuing a U.S. digital currency, as central banks around the world experiment with the potential new form of money. Advocates say a Fed digital dollar could make it faster and cheaper to move money around the financial system, bring into it people who lack bank accounts and provide an efficient way for the government to distribute financial aid. Another motivating consideration: keeping up with other major jurisdictions considering a digital currency for domestic and international payments, Fed. Gov. Lael Brainard said in remarks before the National Association for Business Economics on Sept. 27. “It’s just very hard for me to imagine that the U.S., given the status of the dollar as a dominant currency in international payments, wouldn’t come to the table in that circumstance with a similar kind of an offering,” she said. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated he sees reason for caution. He said at a Sept. 22 press conference that they would only consider issuing a so-called central bank digital currency—or CBDC—if they believed there were “clear and tangible benefits that outweigh any costs and risks.” Click here to read…

U.S., Europe Team Up to Address Chip Shortage, Tech Issues

U.S. and European Union officials agreed to join forces in an effort to boost the semiconductor supply chain and maintain leadership in emerging technologies. In a joint statement Sept 29, the new U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council said the two governments will “seek to strengthen their competitiveness and technological leadership by developing common strategies to mitigate the impact of non-market practices at home and in third countries.” While the statement didn’t mention China by name, Beijing’s economic practices—including subsidies for favoured industries—were one of the factors behind the commission’s formation.“We know a big part of this is due to the behaviour of China,” a senior European trade official said. In their meetings Sept 29, officials discussed ways to reinforce semiconductor supply chains and to strengthen export controls and investment screening to protect sensitive technologies and data. The two sides will also develop and implement artificial-intelligence systems that will protect privacy and human rights. Click here to read…

OPEC Opts Against Big Output Boost, Pushing Oil Prices to Seven-Year High

OPEC and a Russia-led group of oil producers agreed to continue increasing production in measured steps, delegates said Oct 04, deciding against opening the taps more widely and driving crude prices to their highest levels since 2014.The decision sent oil prices sharply higher. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 3% to $78.13. Brent, the international gauge, rose more than 3% to $81.77 a barrel. Rises in oil prices recently had some market watchers expecting OPEC and its Russia-led allies to lift production more significantly. Instead, the OPEC and Russia said the group, which calls itself OPEC+, would lift its collective output by 400,000 barrels a day in monthly instalments, part of a previously agreed plan to return output to pre-Covid-19 levels. Early last year, the two groups abandoned a price war that had weakened prices and cut back sharply on their combined output, as the coronavirus shut down economies and drove down demand for crude. As economies started to open back up, OPEC+ began returning that oil to market. It more recently agreed to add about 400,000 a barrel a day of crude each month, seeking to return production to pre-Covid 19 levels by next year. Click here to read…

Evergrande halts stock trading on possible sale of property management unit as more debt deadlines approach

Shares of China Evergrande Group and its property management arm were halted from trading in Hong Kong on Oct 04 ahead of a potential asset sale, as the world’s most indebted developer rushes to sell its core assets for cash to stave off a liquidity crunch. Evergrande Property Services Group said trading was suspended pending an announcement under the city’s takeover code about a “possible general offer” for its shares, according to a regulatory filing. The offer could come from another China-based developer Hopson Development, which is said to be buying a 51 per cent stake that values the unit at HK$40 billion (US$5.1 billion), Chinese financial news portal Cailian reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Hopson was also suspended from trading in Hong Kong for a potential takeover announcement, it said in a filing. The company has engaged in a years-long spending spree to diversify its business beyond property development, expanding into everything from wealth management to electric vehicles (EV), draining cash. The liquidity squeeze has worsened as Beijing adopted new rules designed to tamp down speculative property price bubbles. Click here to read…

Australia challenges Google’s ad dominance, calls for data-use rules

Australia’s antitrust watchdog called for powers to curb Google’s use of internet data to sell targeted ads, joining other regulators in saying the firm dominates the market to the point of hurting publishers, advertisers and consumers. The comments, in a report published on Sept 28, puts Australia alongside Europe and Britain where regulators want to stop the Alphabet Inc unit trouncing rival advertisers by using the data it collects from people’s online searches – including on maps and YouTube – to place marketing material. The U.S. justice department is meanwhile preparing an anti-monopoly lawsuit accusing Google of using its market muscle to hobble advertising rivals, according to media reports. “The Europeans and the U.K. are consulting on such laws at the moment and we’re going to be trying to align with them over the next year,” Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) Chair Rod Sims said in a Reuters interview. Already this year Google said it was poised to withdraw core services from Australia over a law–also recommended by the ACCC– forcing it to pay media companies for content that drives traffic to its search engine. It ultimately inked deals with most major outlets. Click here to read…

China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch?

Unprecedented power cuts in Northern China left millions without electricity, ground factories to a halt and sent workers to the hospital with carbon monoxide poisoning after ventilators lost power during a blackout. “Sorry out of use” signs have become ubiquitous at petrol stations in many parts of the United Kingdom this week, while energy firms fold due to skyrocketing natural gas prices. Energy prices across Europe are breaking records, too. Partly, analysts say the reasons behind the energy shortages are multi-fold and many of them predate the COVID-19 crisis. It’s true that increasing consumer and factory demand for energy leading to supply chain bottlenecks and production chain pain points. Many investors have pivoted to more renewable energy sources over the past five to 10 years as part of a global push to address climate change. But the reality is that much of the world still relies on traditional sources of energy such as oil, coal and gas — especially as renewable sources get up and running. And as they do, that has led to a lack of investment in fossil fuels, which is contributing to the current issues, analysts say. Click here to read…

Crunch time for Biden as Congress debates historic spending agenda

Joe Biden faces the most important test of his presidency this week as Democrats in the US Congress launch a highwire bid to implement his sweeping economic agenda while keeping the government’s lights on. The House and Senate are moving toward votes on legislation dealing with infrastructure and social programs worth almost $5 trillion while also averting a government shutdown on Oct 01 and a looming debt default. Failure on any front would be catastrophic for a president looking to cement his legacy, while Democrats would see their chances diminished for hanging onto the House of Representatives and Senate in next year’s midterm elections. “You know me: I’m born optimistic. I think things are going to go well. I think we’re going to get it done,” Biden told reporters at the White House. At stake is the fate of Biden’s $3.5 trillion Build Back Better social welfare package that only Democrats support, and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill to improve transport networks and broadband coverage. Click here to read…

Strategic

U.S. set to resume trade talks with China

The U.S. administration led by President Joe Biden is set to resume negotiations with Beijing as part of its long-awaited strategy for handling trade with China.U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is expected to speak to Chinese vice premier Liu He by telephone over the next few days, calling on China to respect the “phase one” trade agreement it signed with Washington under former President Donald Trump. The U.S. also plans to resurrect partial exemptions on punitive tariffs to help curb the impact of trade tensions on its domestic industry. That comes as Tai prepares to unveil the Biden administration’s China trade policy in a speech on Oct 04. To prompt Beijing to abide by the phase one agreement, Tai is expected to underscore that Washington will “use the full range of tools we have and develop new tools as needed to defend American economic interests from harmful policies and practices.” The U.S. aims to persuade China to correct unfair trade practices through dialogue, without setting a specific deadline for talks. The U.S. plans to reinstate tariff exemptions, which expired at the end of 2020 apart from on pharmaceutical products. It is possible that imports related to climate change and infrastructure, including renewable energy-related items, may be spared from the tariffs. Click here to read…

‘Hostage diplomacy’ fears linger after China frees Canadians

China freed diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor on Sept 25, Asia time, immediately after Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was granted release from house arrest in Vancouver. The move followed the U.S. dropping a request for Meng’s extradition and came despite Beijing’s repeated claims that there was no connection between the cases. “It’s a clear confirmation that hostage diplomacy works, and this is an approach that China has used many times in the past 10 to 15 years,” said Guy Saint-Jacques, Canada’s ambassador to China from 2012 to 2016, in comments to Nikkei Asia. After the Michaels were jailed, Saint-Jacques pushed for Canada to rally other countries and amplify its relatively small voice on the global stage. Last February, with the support of former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Canada launched a Declaration Against Arbitrary Detention in State-to-State Relations. It did not name any country, and governments other than China use such tactics, but there was little doubt about the intended target.The declaration has been signed so far by 66 countries and the European Union. Canada now proposes turning the document into a treaty with protocols, including sanctions, to discourage hostage diplomacy. Click here to read…

Two Koreas reopen hotlines as North urges South to mend ties

The two Koreas on Oct 04 restored their hotlines that the North severed months ago, with Pyongyang urging Seoul to step up efforts to improve relations after criticizing what it called double standards over weapons development. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressed his willingness last week to reactivate the hotlines, which North Korea cut off in early August in protest against joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises, just days after reopening them for the first time in a year. The South confirmed that twice-daily regular communication was restarted on time via military hotlines and others run by the Unification Ministry, except for the navy channel set up on an international network for merchant ships. The hotlines are a rare tool to bridge the rivals, but it was unclear whether their reconnection would facilitate any meaningful return to talks aimed at dismantling the North’s nuclear and missile programs in return for U.S. sanctions relief. KCNA called for Seoul to fulfill its “tasks” to mend strained cross-border ties, repeating Kim’s speech last week that he had decided to recover the lines to help realize people’s hopes for a thaw and peace. Click here to read…

The Generals Contradict Biden on Afghanistan

President Biden hopes the political fallout from his botched Afghanistan withdrawal will fade quickly, but Sept 28’s Senate hearing with the secretary of Defense and two top generals doesn’t cast his decisions in a better light. The hearing underscored that the President acted against the advice of the military in yanking the residual U.S. force from the country. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley and Gen. Kenneth McKenzie both made clear in their testimony that they recommended that about 2,500 U.S. troops stay in Afghanistan to delay a Taliban takeover. That’s not what Mr. Biden said he was told. Asked in an ABC News interview days after the August fall of Kabul if his military advisers urged him to maintain America’s small footprint in the country, Mr. Biden said, “No one said that to me that I can recall.” The scandal isn’t that the President ignored military advice—he’s the decision-maker. It’s his refusal to own his decision. The generals also undercut Mr. Biden’s spin about their advice as the chaotic withdrawal was underway. He said the generals unanimously supported his Aug. 31 deadline for the departure of U.S. troops. But as Gen. Milley confirmed in questioning by Sen. Tom Cotton, that advice was given on Aug. 25—10 days after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. Click here to read…

Taliban demands US respect Afghan airspace after alleged drone incursions

The Taliban has demanded that the US respect Afghanistan’s sole rights over its own airspace and called on the world’s strongest military to keep out or be prepared to face “negative consequences.”On Sept 29, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid warned of consequences if the US continues to violate Afghan airspace in a statement shared on Twitter. “The U.S. has violated all international rights and laws as well as its commitments made to the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, with the operation of these drones in Afghanistan,” the statement read.The Taliban said it called on all countries, but especially the United States, to remain in accordance with international law and their commitments to Afghanistan. The statement claims the Taliban-controlled Kabul government is the sole custodian of Afghanistan and its airspace, adding that if the US fails to recognize this, it will face negative consequences.US officials are yet to comment on the Taliban statement. A US drone strike in August, just days before the military evacuation was complete, killed an aid worker and nine members of his family, including seven children. The strike was intended for ISIS-K terrorists. Click here to read…

US-abandoned Bagram base reportedly operational for first time in two months, as rumors swirl of Chinese military presence

Bagram Airfield, once the linchpin of the US-led NATO mission in Afghanistan, is said to be powered and serving planes again. A foreign force is rumoured to be involved, with fingers pointed at China, which denied eyeing the base. A photo shared on social media purportedly shows the base on Oct 03 night with its floodlights on. There are claims that several planes have landed at and taken off from the airfield in recent hours. If confirmed, it would be the first time Bagram had served aircraft in almost 50 days, marking a significant development. The base was abandoned by US troops in early July as the Pentagon prepared for the withdrawal of most of its troops from Afghanistan. It had been intended that the Afghan national government would maintain it, but the regime’s subsequent collapse in August put Bagram in the hands of the Taliban. There are doubts that the militant movement has the expertise to fully run the base or even has the need for it, so it’s presumed that the resumption of air traffic signifies a foreign power is involved. Fingers were immediately pointed at China as Bagram’s likely new operator, despite Beijing previously having stated it had no intention of deploying troops to Afghanistan. Click here to read…

Qatar calls Taliban moves on girls’ education ‘very disappointing’

Qatar’s top diplomat says the Taliban’s moves on girls’ education in Afghanistan are “very disappointing” and “a step backwards” and called on the group’s leadership to look to Doha for how to run an Islamic system. Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was referring to, among other things, the Taliban’s refusal to allow Afghan female secondary school students to resume their studies, weeks after the group took power. He spoke at a news conference on Sept 30 with European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell in Doha. “The recent actions that we have seen unfortunately in Afghanistan, it has been very disappointing to see some steps being taken backwards,” he said. “We need to keep engaging them and urging them not to take such actions, and we have also been trying to demonstrate for the Taliban how Muslim countries can conduct their laws, how they can deal with the women’s issues,” said Sheikh Mohammed. “One of the examples is the State of Qatar, which is a Muslim country; our system is an Islamic system [but] we have women outnumbering men in workforces, in government and in higher education.” Click here to read…

Russia’s ally Tajikistan emerges as Taliban’s new nemesis

With a growing hub of Afghan resistance figures and political exiles, Tajikistan has emerged as the primary foreign power ready to face down the new Taliban government. Reports of a push to form an alternative Afghan administration in the Tajik capital Dushanbe will only deepen hostilities between the neighbours. Since the Taliban stormed Kabul, the militant group and Tajikistan have not lost time in trading threats. The Taliban accused Tajikistan of interfering in the internal affairs of Afghanistan and moved its special forces to their vast shared border. After the Taliban launched an assault on the Panjshir valley, resistance leader Ahmad Massoud and former vice-president Amrullah Saleh fled their final holdout for Dushanbe, where they joined a growing number of Afghan exiles plotting their next steps. Complicating matters for President Rahmon, however, is that not all Tajiks look to Tajikistan for support. A number of Afghan Tajiks have already sided with the Taliban, and authorities in Dushanbe fear that Afghanistan’s new rulers could use Jamaat Ansarullah – a militant group founded in Afghanistan by Tajik national Amriddin Tabarov in 2010 – as a force against Tajikistan. Click here to read…

Pakistan fears US is targeting its China links as it seeks to settle scores from Afghanistan

Fears are growing in Islamabad that the United States is targeting its plans to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, as punishment for enabling the Taliban’s return to power in August. Pakistan’s efforts to “reset” relations with the US, so as to avoid being caught up in its intensifying competition with Islamabad’s closest strategic ally China, have been cold-shouldered by the administration of Joe Biden. On September 14, as he was pointedly questioned by angry members of the House of Representatives’ foreign affairs committee, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US would soon undertake a formal reassessment of its relationship with Pakistan. “This is one of the things we’re going to be looking at in the days, and weeks ahead – the role that Pakistan has played over the last 20 years, but also the role we would want to see it play in the coming years and what it will take for it to do that,” Blinken said. Pakistan retains its status as a “major non-Nato ally” despite being denied US military assistance since September 2018. Blinken told the Congressional committee that Pakistan had a “multiplicity of interests, some that are in conflict with ours”. Click here to read…

Beijing sends record 52 fighter jets to test Taiwan, raising fear of mishaps

Taiwan’s defence ministry said 52 mainland Chinese fighter jets flew to the self-ruled island’s southwest air defence identification zone on Oct 04, a record number that has raised concerns of unintended incidents between the armed forces. The island said it had scrambled jets and deployed missiles to warn off the mainland military aircraft, including 34 J-16 fighter jets, 12 H-6 bombers and two Su-30 jets. It came after Beijing sent 38 warplanes to Taiwan’s air defence zone on Oct 01, followed by 39 on Oct 02 and 16 on Oct 03. Analysts warned that conflicts between Taiwan and mainland China could surface if the People’s Liberation Army made entries to the island’s southeast ADIZ – a major point of access to Taiwan’s eastern military zone – “a new normal”.Analysts said while the large-scale sorties were a show of force to Taiwan and the United States, they also showed the PLA’s joint combat abilities, including the ability to mobilise warplanes from different military zones on the mainland and to operate at night. Click here to read…

Kishida elected as Japan’s PM, set to call election on October 31

Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to dissolve parliament next week and call an election for October 31, according to the NHK broadcaster. The report came shortly after legislators formally chose Kishida as prime minister on Oct 04. Kishida’s plan, amid widespread expectations for a poll in November, appears to be aimed at exploiting a traditional honeymoon period accorded to new governments and a sharp drop in the number of coronavirus infections. Outgoing Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga enjoyed support ratings of about 70 percent soon after taking office about a year ago but was pummelled by criticism of his handling of the pandemic, leading him to make way for a new face to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) through the election. Kishida, 64, a former foreign minister with an image as a low-key consensus builder, beat out three contenders last week to lead the party, ensuring he clinched the post of prime minister as the LDP has a majority in parliament. NHK said that Kishida will dissolve parliament on October 14. Click here to read…

What Kishida’s Cabinet picks tell us

Kishida’s first Cabinet is indicative of the outcomes of the intraparty deal-making that helped elevate him to the country’s top job. Cabinet appointments are tools for managing intraparty politics and have been for decades. A prime minister will use the postings to reward allies, placate or punish adversaries, and satisfy intraparty deals. That’s why it is important to look at not only who gets picked, but which LDP patrons they represent. A deep look at the Cabinet reveals a few key points. First, this is not a “unity Cabinet” — a Cabinet which has near-equal representation across all of the LDP’s institutionalized factions. Instead, this is a Cabinet that reflects all the deals that were made to get Kishida into the party presidency. He rewarded his allies, paid off debts and snubbed rivals. The second point relates to the influence of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso. When looking at the proportion of appointments, Abe’s home Hosoda faction came up a bit short, and Aso’s faction actually earned a proportional share to its size in the party. The third point is that Oct 04 was a bad day to be a Taro Kono supporter. Basically, anyone in the Kono camp failed to earn Cabinet-level postings. Click here to read…

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte Announces Retirement from Politics

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose brash and authoritarian style has upended governance in the country, said Oct 02 that he intends to retire from politics, indicating he won’t attempt to extend his time in power by seeking the vice presidency. Duterte’s six-year term will end in June, and under the constitution he can’t run for re-election. But Mr. Duterte had accepted his party’s nomination for the vice presidency in the 2022 election. Critics in the Philippines called it an attempt to circumvent the constitution’s one-term limit by providing a backdoor into the presidency if the next president resigned, died or otherwise left office. On Oct 02, Duterte reversed himself, seeming to put to rest the possibility of running for vice president—or any office, now or in the future. “The overwhelming sentiment of the Filipino [people] is that I am not qualified, and it would be a violation of the constitution to circumvent the law,” he said, according to a transcript from the Philippine government’s official newswire. “And today, I announce my retirement from politics.” But political commentators cautioned that he has made similar statements before, only to reconsider. Click here to read…

Saudi Arabia confirms recent talks with Iran

Saudi Arabia held discussions with regional rival Tehran last month as talks to ease tensions continue under Iran’s conservative President Ebrahim Raisi. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said on Oct 03 “the fourth round of talks took place on September 21”. “These discussions are still in the exploratory phase, and we hope that they lay the foundation to address issues between the two sides,” he said in Riyadh during a joint news conference with the European Union foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell. Prince Faisal did not disclose the location of the meeting or the level of representation, while Borrell welcomed the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman on Oct 04 said talks with Saudi Arabia are being followed up in Baghdad “with the best conditions”. “No pre-conditions have been set by either side for the talks,” Saeed Khatibzadeh told a press conference in Tehran, adding that the negotiations have so far been mostly focused on bilateral ties, but have also touched on regional issues. Khatibzadeh also denied reports that a Saudi delegation has travelled to Tehran to prepare for reopening the Saudi embassy. Click here to read…

Iran asked U.S. to unfreeze $10 billion to show good will, Iran official says

Iran’s foreign minister said on Oct 02 that U.S. officials tried to discuss restarting nuclear talks last month, but he insisted Washington must first release $10 billion of Tehran’s frozen funds as a sign of good will. Iran has rejected direct talks with the United States, and indirect talks on reviving a 2015 nuclear accord aimed at keeping Iran from being able to develop a nuclear weapon stopped in June. The United States used intermediaries at the United Nations last month to attempt to make contact, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told state television. Iran has been unable to obtain tens of billions of dollars of its assets in foreign banks, mainly from exports of oil and gas, due to U.S. sanctions on its banking and energy sectors. “The Americans tried to contact us through different channels (at the U.N. General Assembly) in New York, and I told the mediators if America’s intentions are serious then a serious indication was needed … by releasing at least $10 billion of blocked money,” the minister said. Click here to read…

Pandora Papers expose wealth of Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s allies

Prominent members of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government, donors to his party and family members of the country’s powerful military generals have moved millions of dollars of wealth through offshore companies, a new investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) alleges. Khan, who rose to power in 2018 on the back of promises to arrest Pakistan’s “corrupt” political elites, was not personally named in the newly leaked documents, dubbed the Pandora Papers, which were released late on Oct 03. Two members of Khan’s cabinet – Water Resources Minister Moonis Elahi and Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin – were prominent in the leaks, alongside more than 700 other Pakistani citizens, including family members of several high-ranking military officials, donors to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party and opposition political leaders’ families. The ICIJ’s investigation is based on more than 11.9 million confidential files leaked from 14 offshore financial services firms. Ownership of offshore holding companies is not illegal in most countries, and does not indicate wrongdoing, but the instrument is frequently used to avoid tax liability or to maintain secrecy around large financial transactions. Click here to read…

Myanmar junta blocks ASEAN envoy Suu Kyi visit

Myanmar’s junta has said it was unlikely an ASEAN special envoy tasked with facilitating dialogue in the coup-hit country would be allowed to meet ousted pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been under global pressure to help resolve the crisis in member state Myanmar, where more than 1,100 people have been killed in post-coup violence according to a monitoring group. Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof, who was selected as the bloc’s envoy in August after lengthy wrangling, has called for full access to all parties when he visits. But a junta spokesman told AFP on Sept 30 it would be “difficult to allow for meetings with those who are facing trial.” “We will allow for meeting with official organizations,” added spokesman Zaw Min Tun, without giving further details on when Myanmar would give permission for the envoy to visit. Suu Kyi, 76, is on trial for a raft of charges, flouting coronavirus restrictions during polls her party won in a landslide last year, illegally importing walkie talkies and sedition. She faces decades in prison if convicted on all charges. Click here to read…

Sudan thwarts Ethiopian incursion amid protests in east

Sudan’s military says it has repelled an attempted incursion by Ethiopian forces in the border area between the two countries. The Ethiopian forces were forced to retreat from the Umm Barakit area, a military statement said on Oct 03, without giving further details. The head of Sudan’s military, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, told reporters the incident took place on Oct 02. He said it showed how the military was protecting the country in the wake of a coup attempt in Khartoum last week. Colonel Getnet Adane, Ethiopia’s military spokesman, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Tensions along the border between Sudan and Ethiopia have escalated since the outbreak of a conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region last year that sent tens of thousands of refugees into eastern Sudan. The tensions have focused on an area of fertile farmland known as al-Fashqa, where the border is disputed. Meanwhile, protesters in eastern Sudan shut a pipeline that carries imported crude oil to the capital Khartoum. Protesters from the Beja tribes in eastern Sudan have been shutting ports and blocking roads in protest against what they describe as poor political and economic conditions in the region. Click here to read…

Medical

From Australia to Thailand, vaccine swap deals help ease shortages

As global distribution of coronavirus vaccines remains heavily tilted toward certain wealthy nations, countries are striking bilateral deals to temporarily “swap” extra doses that are close to expiring. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a sharing deal with the U.K. in early September for 4 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough to fully vaccinate about 8% of the population Down Under. Australia will send the same amount back later this year. It reached a similar agreement with Singapore for 500,000 doses in late August. Beyond helping to rein in the pandemic, such arrangements can benefit both sides — using up shots that would otherwise go to waste, improving bilateral relationships, and bringing countries a step closer to reopening their borders to travel. Canberra hopes that negotiating with non-superpower nations will enable it to access the shots it needs more quickly. Other pairs of countries with widely varying vaccination rates have reached similar agreements. South Korea, which has a full-vaccination rate in the 40s, announced a swap deal in July with Israel, which has fully vaccinated more than 60% of its population. Thailand received shots from Bhutan in August, and Brunei from Singapore in September. Click here to read…

Singapore’s foreign population dips 10.7% on COVID restrictions

Singapore’s population of foreign nationals was down 10.7% in June compared with a year earlier, no thanks to travel restrictions and a weak economy brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the year, the non-resident population fell from 1.64 million to 1.47 million, largely due to a reduction in foreign employment in Singapore, according to the government’s annual “Population in Brief” report released on Sept 28. This decrease was seen in all categories of work passes, which foreigners need for employment in Singapore. The construction, shipyard and processing sectors, which were hit hard by the pandemic, saw the largest declines in work permit holders. Before the pandemic, Singapore was employing more foreigners on a year-on-year basis. Work pass holders rose by 24,000 from mid-2018 to mid-2019. The number then fell by 47,000 from mid-2019 to mid-2020, as the pandemic started to bite, and that decline has since more than tripled this year. Click here to read…

There May Soon Be a Covid Pill

Since the beginning of the pandemic, doctors have been hoping for an oral antiviral that could prevent recently infected patients from getting sicker. The FDA approved Gilead’s remdesivir for emergency use in hospitalized patients last spring, but the intravenous drug isn’t available to those not sick enough to be admitted. The National Institutes of Health prioritized development of monoclonal antibodies, which have helped many patients. But they are difficult to produce and distribute. Demand this summer exceeded supply, so the feds have rationed treatments. The FDA and NIH missed the chance to accelerate anti-virals like molnupiravir, which creates errors in the machinery of the virus copying code. An early-stage trial this spring showed that molnupiravir rapidly reduced the amount of virus in patients. Merck has also signed licensing agreements with generic manufacturers to accelerate the pill’s availability world-wide. Manufacturers in low-income countries don’t need special expertise and supervision to produce the pills, unlike with the Covid vaccines. Molnupiravir can be easily distributed in poorer countries.An Indian generic manufacturer in July announced positive results from its own molnupiravir trial, and Canada in August began a rolling review. Click here to read…

Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 20 September – 26 September 2021

September 28, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

China electricity shortage: industrial production grinds to halt and traffic lights fail amid rationing

China is in the midst of a power supply crisis that has turned critical in recent days – threatening entire power grids and prompting analysts to slash economic growth forecasts for the year. In the past month, 16 out of 31 provincial jurisdictions – from industrial powerhouses in the south such as Guangdong to the rust belt in the northeast – have rolle d out electricity-rationing measures, triggering widespread alarm among much of the population and plunging the nation’s industrial sector into chaos. On Sept 23, some traffic lights in Shenyang, the capital of the Liaoning province, suddenly stopped working, resulting in severe traffic jams. The local government said during a meeting on Sept 26 that they had to ration power “to avoid the collapse of the entire grid”, according to an article in the state-run People’s Daily. Analysts have pointed to both a shortage of coal and Beijing’s push to meet emission-reduction targets, and they warn that further disruptions risk aggravating inflation while pummeling production. Meanwhile, some analysts are suggesting that the power rationing measures could help reduce demand for upstream raw materials that have been in short supply in China. Click here to read

U.S. grants licenses for more aid flow to Afghanistan despite sanctions

The United States on Sept 24 further paved the way for aid to flow to Afghanistan despite U.S. sanctions on the Taliban, who seized control of the country last month, issuing general licenses amid concern that Washington’s punitive measures could compound an unfolding humanitarian crisis. The U.S. Treasury Department said it issued two general licenses, one allowing the U.S. government, NGOs and certain international organizations, including the United Nations, to engage in transactions with the Taliban or Haqqani Network – both under sanctions – that are necessary to provide humanitarian assistance. The second license authorizes certain transactions related to the export and re-export of food, medicine and other items. “Treasury is committed to facilitating the flow of humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan and other activities that support their basic human needs,” Andrea Gacki, director of the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said in the statement. She added that Washington will continue to work with financial institutions, NGOs and international organizations to ease the flow of agricultural goods, medicine and other resources while upholding sanctions on the Taliban, Haqqani Network and others. Click here to read

China’s rare-earth giants forming ‘super group’ in merger for high-quality devt, deal with price abnormalities

China’s rare-earth giants are mulling a restructuring, and a super group in the medium-heavy rare-earth sector is expected to be born soon. Analysts said the move will help enhance market concentration to better guide industry development and contribute to improving competitive edge. China Minerals Rare Earth Co Ltd said on Sept 23 that its parent China Minerals Corp, Aluminum Corp of China and the government of Ganzhou, East China’s Jiangxi Province, are planning a strategic restructuring of rare earth assets. “The relevant plan has not yet been finalized, and needs approval from relevant authorities,” said a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The two groups are among the “Big Six” state-owned enterprises that dominate the industry in China, while Ganzhou is a major rare-earth resource hub where another Big Six company South China Rare Earth Group Co is based. The three parties own mining output quota for medium and heavy rare earth metals of 9,870 tons in total, accounting for 85.9 percent of the first batch of quotas set for 2021. This means that their restructuring will establish a super group focused on medium-heavy rare-earth products, according to experts. Click here to read

China blasts Taiwan’s bid to join CPTPP trade pact

China on Sept 23 said it “strongly opposes” Taiwan’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a day after Taipei applied for membership in the 11-country trade bloc. “There is only one China in this world, and Taiwan cannot be separated from China. We strongly oppose Taiwan’s participation in any official agreement or organization. China’s stance on this is very clear,” Zhao Lijian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters. Taiwan submitted its application to join the Japan-led trade bloc on Sept 22, less than a week after China announced its own surprise bid for membership. Earlier on Sept 23, the island’s top trade representative warned that if China were to be admitted to the grouping first, Beijing would attempt to block Taiwan from joining. “China has been obstructing Taiwan’s international presence. If China is admitted into CPTPP ahead of us, it will definitely risk Taiwan’s entry to the trade bloc”, top Taiwan trade negotiator John Deng said. “Taiwan’s application is mainly for our own interests, our companies’ interests and for our own long-term economic planning purposes, and it has nothing to do with other countries’ goals [or with] China’s comments on our application,” Deng said. Click here to read

EU split on Taiwan question as it fears fraying China ties

A China backlash appears to be taking shape in the European Union, where this month the foreign affairs committee of parliament issued a report calling on the 27-nation bloc to begin preparing a bilateral investment agreement (BIA) with Taiwan. The move came after the recent European Parliament session passed an amendment that calls for changing a trade office’s name on the island to the European Union Office in Taiwan, a step that indicates the EU feels the need to “move away from [its] solely economic” relationship with Taiwan, according to the BIA report’s rapporteur. Charlie Weimers, a Swedish politician and member of the European Parliament and the report’s rapporteur, said that by the end of this year preparations have to be made for an impact assessment, public consultations and a scoping exercise so the EU and Taiwan can start negotiations and “deepen our economic ties.” In 2020, the EU was Taiwan’s largest foreign investor, accounting for 38.8% of the island’s total. Yet it accounted for only 2% of Taiwan’s foreign direct investment. The EU is Taiwan’s 5th largest trading partner. The EU first broached the idea of a BIA with Taiwan back in 2015 but later dropped the plan. Click here to read

Sri Lanka’s vital EU trade privileges hang in the balance

When a special five-member European Union delegation arrives in Colombo on Sept 27, its review of a vital trade concession could lead to substantial export losses for Sri Lanka, which has already suffered a steep drop in foreign reserves. The European delegation will confer with stakeholders to learn more about something else many believe to again be in decline in the South Asian island nation: human rights. “They will meet with all stakeholders to obtain information, and verify the commitment made by the government in relation to matters pertaining to human rights, international labor conventions and the environment,” Denis Chaibi, the EU ambassador to Sri Lanka, told Nikkei Asia. The delegation will scrutinize Sri Lanka’s adherence to its commitments on human rights, labor laws and environmental protection, as well as enforcement of the Prevention of Terrorism Act. The PTA legislation to counter terrorism and separatism was enacted in 1979 but remains in force and is regarded by many as a political weapon to stifle dissent and debate. The investigation will determine whether the European trading bloc continues to provide a Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) concession on imports that has been highly favorable to Sri Lanka. Click here to read

Lebanon’s inflation rate is worse than Zimbabwe’s and Venezuela’s

Lebanon’s annual rate of inflation has risen to the highest of all countries tracked by Bloomberg, surpassing Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as the financial meltdown in the Middle East nation worsens. The consumer price index rose 137.8% from a year earlier in August, compared with 123.4% in July, according to the Lebanon Central Administration of Statistics. Consumer prices rose 10.25% from a month earlier while food prices rose 20.82%. Lebanon’s inflation has skyrocketed in the past two years as the country’s financial and economic crisis spirals out of control, with politicians doing very little to mitigate its impact. The currency has lost nearly 90% of its value and plunged three quarters of residents into poverty. Authorities have in recent months started reducing subsidies, as most items are now priced at the black-market exchange rate. The central bank is running out of cash and has repeatedly warned the government about continuing subsidies. After nearly 13 months of paralysis, billionaire and former premier Najib Mikati formed a new government that seeks to resume stalled bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund and creditors to restructure the debt. Lebanon defaulted on $30 billion of Eurobonds last year. Click here to read

Chinese official calls for ‘high-level’ security reassurance for CPEC

A senior Chinese official called for “high-level” security guarantees for further high-quality development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), during a bilateral meeting on the development of the major project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the 10th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was held via video link on Sept 23, Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, said that high-quality operation under high-level security guarantees are needed to turn the corridor into a demonstration project for the high-quality development of the BRI. The meeting, which was delayed partly by the Dasu terror attack, conveyed some very important information about the CPEC’s future development pattern, including the new practical move on joint cooperation in information technology, said Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the Research Center for China-South Asia Cooperation at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. As part of the effort to help Pakistan tackle its domestic security situation, it may include sectors such as database development, Liu told the Global Times on Thursday. “If the CPEC is to advance smoothly, it is necessary to ensure that the domestic security situation in Pakistan is stable,” said Liu. Click here to read

UAE, India look to double trade to at least $100B over five years

The United Arab Emirates and India are seeking to more than double non-oil trade to at least $100 billion over five years as the Gulf Arab state works to deepen ties with fast-growing economies beyond the Middle East. The two governments are set to start talks on an economic pact aimed at boosting business, investment and jobs, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi said on a visit to New Delhi for talks with Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. “Both sides have drawn up a very aggressive and ambitious time-frame and aim to conclude negotiations by December 2021,” Goyal said at a press conference on Sept 22. “We hope to sign formal agreements in early 2022.” The UAE is trying to burnish its credentials as a global hub for business and finance in the face of growing regional competition from Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, the government said it plans to work on comprehensive economic agreements with countries showing high potential for growth, mainly in Asia and Africa. Last week, it said it plans to invest up to $14 billion in Britain. India is seeking better trade links to revive its economy after a deadly second wave of the pandemic this year. Click here to read

Strategic

Joint Statement from Quad Leaders: September 24, 2021

We, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, convened today in person as “the Quad” for the first time. On this historic occasion we recommit to our partnership, and to a region that is a bedrock of our shared security and prosperity—a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is also inclusive and resilient. Just six months have passed since our last meeting. Since March, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused continued global suffering; the climate crisis has accelerated; and regional security has become ever-more complex, testing all of our countries individually and together. Our cooperation, however, remains unflinching. The occasion of the Quad summit is an opportunity to refocus ourselves and the world on the Indo-Pacific and on our vision for what we hope to achieve. Together, we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states. We commit to work together and with a range of partners. Click here to read

Kissinger’s ‘secret’ China trip recalled as Wall Street veteran meets key Chinese leaders, visits Xinjiang

As official US-China exchanges slowed amid rising tensions, a Wall Street veteran visited Beijing for talks with a top leader – acting as a powerful backchannel for the two nations, the Post has learned. John Thornton, executive chairman of Barrick Gold Corp and a former Goldman Sachs president, met Chinese Vice-Premier Han Zheng in Beijing in late August, according to a person familiar with the details of the meeting. The key issues discussed included climate change, Xinjiang and conditions for resuming bilateral talks. Thornton, also co-chair of the China-US Financial Roundtable, acted as an unofficial channel for US-China exchanges during his six-week trip, which included a three-week stay in Shanghai before his meetings with senior Chinese officials in the capital in late August. This was followed by a week-long trip to Xinjiang, the far-western region where the US accuses China of having committed genocide of the ethnic minority Uygur population. Thornton was given unprecedented access at a time when China is still largely closed to most foreigners since the Covid-19 pandemic first broke out. “Thornton’s trip was similar in nature to [Henry] Kissinger’s secret trip to China [in 1971],” said the person familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity. Click here to read

Russia’s Lavrov says Taliban recognition ‘not on the table’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sept 25 that international recognition of the Taliban was not currently under consideration. Lavrov was speaking on the sidelines of the annual gathering of world leaders in New York for the U.N. General Assembly. His comments come after the Taliban nominated a U.N. envoy, setting up a showdown over Afghanistan’s seat at the world body. “The question of international recognition of the Taliban at the present juncture is not on the table,” Lavrov told a news conference. Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Sept 26 nominated the Islamist group’s Doha-based spokesman Suhail Shaheen as Afghanistan’s U.N. ambassador. The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan last month. Ghulam Isaczai, the current U.N. ambassador who represents the Afghan government ousted by the Taliban, has also asked to renew his U.N. accreditation. Russia is a member of a nine-member U.N credentials committee – along with China and the United States – which will deal with the competing claims on Afghanistan’s U.N. seat later this year. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the Taliban’s desire for international recognition is the only leverage other countries have to press for inclusive government and respect for rights, particularly for women, in Afghanistan. Click here to read

No crime and no punishment as Meng Wanzhou admits wrongdoing without guilt

US prosecutors depict the deal that allowed Meng Wanzhou to leave Canada and fly home to China as a victory – but if so, it is an odd one after so much thwarted effort to secure her for trial. Ultimately, the Huawei Technologies Co executive has been convicted of no crime, will serve no sentence and pay no penalty. Instead, Meng admits wrongdoing without admitting guilt. “In entering into the deferred prosecution agreement, Meng has taken responsibility for her principal role in perpetrating a scheme to defraud a global financial institution,” said acting US attorney Nicole Boeckmann in a press release. A deferred prosecution agreement typically includes both an admission of wrongdoing, and a requirement for some sort of cooperation from the accused, in return for the dropping of charges at a future date. Meng’s deal includes admissions that she lied to HSBC, but that is as far as her obligations go – there is no cooperation requirement. The deal is a scant five pages long. The main requirement is that Meng agree to a statement of facts (a further four pages long) that describes a meeting she held in Hong Kong in 2013 with an executive for “Financial Institution 1”, identified as HSBC in Meng’s now-dropped Canadian extradition case. Click here to read

‘Finally, I am home’: Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou lands in China to hero’s welcome

Huawei Technologies’ executive Meng Wanzhou landed in China on Sept 25 evening, after nearly three years under house arrest in Canada, to a hero’s welcome cheered by supporters in a homecoming state media portrayed as a sign of a strong country and a diplomatic coup for Beijing. State broadcaster CCTV showed a teary-eyed Meng, wearing a red wraparound dress, receiving a bouquet of roses and being greeted by an assembled crowd waving mini national flags on the tarmac of the international airport of Shenzhen, Huawei’s base, after her flight landed at 9.50pm. Meng waved to the 100-strong crowd and acknowledged the shouts of “Welcome home”. She then gave a brief speech, addressing Zhang Xin, deputy provincial governor of Guangdong, and Shenzhen mayor Qin Weizhong, and beginning by saying: “Finally, I am home.” She mentioned President Xi Jinping twice in her speech on the airport tarmac, referring to him as Chairman Xi. “Chairman Xi cares about the safety of every Chinese citizen, and he also has my situation in his heart, I am deeply touched by this,” she said. The reception for 49-year-old Meng, daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, was unusually grand even by Chinese standards. Red carpets were rolled out on the tarmac, and state television, including CCTV, provided live coverage for hours. Click here to read

From relentless war to relentless diplomacy, Biden declares new chapter

After two decades of war in Afghanistan, the U.S. is ready for a new chapter — one that will focus on intensive diplomacy and only turn to force as a last resort, President Joe Biden said at his debut address to the United Nations Sept 21. In line with his Aug. 16 speech after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the president expressed his distaste for military arm-twisting to achieve American foreign policy goals, further narrowing down the conditions of the use of force to missions that are clear, achievable and have the “informed consent of the American people.” In his 33-minute speech, the president did not mention China by name once, as opposed to his predecessor Donald Trump who mentioned “China” or “Chinese” 12 times in 2020 and 14 times in 2019. Instead, the U.S. president made clear he does not want a new cold war with Beijing. “All of the major powers of the world have a duty, in my view, to carefully manage their relationships so we do not tip from responsible competition to conflict,” Biden said. ” We’ll stand up for our allies and our friends and oppose attempts by stronger countries to dominate weaker ones, whether through changes to territory by force, economic coercion, tactical exploitation, or disinformation.” But the U.S. is “not seeking a new cold war or a world divided into rigid blocs,” he emphasized. Click here to read

Taiwan axes symbols of authoritarian past in push to rebrand

Taiwan is undertaking a sweeping drive to remove all symbols of its authoritarian past in a bid to create a new global brand for the island. The latest move is a plan to pull down a towering bronze statue of Chiang Kai-shek — the generalissimo who ruled the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name) with an iron fist from 1949 to his death in 1975 — from an iconic central Taipei memorial hall dedicated to the former dictator. The step comes on the recommendation of the Transitional Justice Commission, which addresses crimes committed during the era of martial law, or “White Terror.” Since taking power in 2016, President Tsai Ing-wen and her ruling Democratic Progressive Party have ramped up efforts to distance themselves from the past. With Taiwan being squeezed out of formal diplomatic space by an assertive China, the DPP has set out to rebrand Taiwan’s international identity. Some moves may seem superficial, such as changing the name on its passport and Western consulates to emphasize the colloquial name of Taiwan and minimizing references to the ROC — the baggage-laden name of China before Chiang’s nationalist Kuomintang was forced to flee to the island from Mao Zedong’s Communists in 1949. Click here to read

China’s Xi warns of ‘grim’ Taiwan situation in letter to opposition

The situation in the Taiwan Strait is “complex and grim”, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote in a congratulatory letter on Sept 26 to the newly elected leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, who has pledged to renew talks with Beijing. Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) elected as their leader on Sept 25 former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu, who said he would rekindle stalled high-level contacts with China’s ruling Communist Party. In Xi’s letter, a copy of which was released by the KMT, he said both parties had had “good interactions” based on their joint opposition to Taiwan independence. “At present, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is complex and grim. All the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation must work together with one heart and go forward together,” wrote Xi, who is also head of the Communist Party. He expressed hope that both parties could cooperate on “seeking peace in the Taiwan Strait, seeking national reunification and seeking national revitalisation”. Chu, who badly lost the 2016 presidential election to current President Tsai Ing-wen, responded to Xi that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were “all the children of the Yellow Emperor” – in other words, all Han Chinese. Chu blamed Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for tensions with Beijing after pursuing anti-China policies. Chu had met Xi in China in 2015. Click here to read

Attacks on Myanmar military spike following call for revolt

Clashes between the Myanmar military and a growing resistance movement called the People’s Defense Force have intensified following calls for open uprisings by the parallel government formed by ousted politicians and activists. The PDF consists of militias that have been formed throughout Myanmar since May by citizens opposing military rule. The National Unity Government, launched by Myanmar’s democratically elected leaders pushed out by the military in February, has limited direct control over these groups, which each make their own military decisions. About 120 to 300 militias under the PDF now exist across Myanmar, with a total estimated membership of 20,000 to 30,000 fighters, according to experts who have closely monitored the escalating attacks. The Chinland Defense Force, a leading resistance group within the PDF, and a local ethnic armed organization clashed with the military in Chin state on Sept 25, local news outlet Myanmar Now reported. No major skirmishes have broken out in Yangon. But six explosions occurred in Hlaingthaya township in Yangon where many garment factories locate on Sept. 14. Trained militants are believed to be waiting in the city for the right time to strike. Click here to read

Erdogan: Turkey intends to buy 2nd batch of Russian S-400s

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey still intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, a move that could deepen a rift with NATO ally Washington and trigger fresh U.S. sanctions. Washington says the S-400s pose a threat to its F-35 fighter jets and to NATO’s broader defense systems. Turkey says it was unable to procure air defense systems from any NATO ally on satisfactory terms. “In the future, nobody will be able to interfere in terms of what kind of defense systems we acquire, from which country at what level,” Erdogan said in an interview aired on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan at CBS News on Sept 26. “Nobody can interfere with that. We are the only ones to make such decisions.” The United States imposed sanctions on Turkey’s Defense Industry Directorate, its chief Ismail Demir and three other employees in December following the country’s acquisition of a first batch of S-400s. Talks continued between Russia and Turkey about the delivery of a second batch, which Washington has repeatedly said would almost certainly trigger new sanctions. Erdogan will visit Russia next week to meet President Vladimir Putin to discuss issues including the violence in northwestern Syria. Click here to read

Iran’s nuclear program has crossed ‘all red lines,’ PM Bennett tells UNGA while hinting at Israel taking action

The Iranian nuclear program has reached a “watershed” moment and Israel’s tolerance on the matter is running out, PM Naftali Bennett has said, calling on the international community to recognize the gravity of the situation. Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Sept 26, Bennett said that Iran had made “a major leap forward” in recent years and that its “weapon program is at a critical point.” Bennett argued that Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, many times greater than permitted under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which put restraints on Tehran’s nuclear development. It’s “one step short of weapons-grade material – and they’re getting away with it,” he added. The Israeli leader contended that Iran’s nuclear program had now hit a “watershed moment” and words would not be enough to stop its centrifuges. But Bennett said that while the rest of the world either considered Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons inevitable, or they’re just tired of hearing about it, Israel didn’t have that privilege and its tolerance was running out. “Iran is much weaker, much more vulnerable than it seems,” he noted, adding that Israel would not tire on the matter and would not allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons. Click here to read

U.S. to Iran: Grant inspectors access to workshop or face action at IAEA

Iran must stop denying the U.N. nuclear watchdog access to a workshop making centrifuge parts as agreed two weeks ago or face diplomatic retaliation at the agency’s Board of Governors within days, the United States said on Sept 27. The workshop at the TESA Karaj complex makes components for centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, and was hit by apparent sabotage in June in which one of four International Atomic Energy Agency cameras there was destroyed. Iran removed them and the destroyed camera’s footage is missing. TESA Karaj was one of several sites to which Iran agreed to grant IAEA inspectors access to service IAEA monitoring equipment and replace memory cards just as they were due to fill up with data such as camera footage. The Sept. 12 accord helped avoid a diplomatic escalation between Iran and the West. “We are deeply troubled by Iran’s refusal to provide the IAEA with the needed access to service its monitoring equipment, as was agreed in the September 12 Joint Statement between the IAEA and Iran,” a U.S. statement to the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Sept 27 said. Click here to read

Meet Olaf Scholz, the German Best Placed to Succeed Angela Merkel

A politician who built his popularity on his response to Covid-19 and styled himself as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s true heir is now best placed to succeed her as leader of Europe’s largest economy after scoring a narrow win in Sept 26’s election. Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party won a small majority over Ms. Merkel’s conservatives. But with just a quarter of the votes, he is also the first leading politician in the country’s postwar history to need support for three parties to build a stable majority in parliament. Adding to the complexity of the three-way negotiations, Ms. Merkel’s conservatives have said they, too, would court Mr. Scholz’s prospective partners—the pro-market Free Democrats and the Greens—with a view to forming a government. Under unwritten rules of German politics, the election winner has the first shot at trying to form a coalition but has no guarantee of becoming chancellor if the effort fails. Mr. Scholz said a government under his leadership would serve the interests of workers and focus on fighting man-made climate change. Signaling continuity in foreign policy, he said that he would work for a more united European Union and, like Ms. Merkel, refrain from aligning too closely with the U.S. Click here to read

Mali approached Russian military company for help: Lavrov

Mali has asked Russian private companies to boost security in the conflict-torn country, Moscow confirmed as the Malian leader accused France of abandoning Bamako by preparing a large troop drawdown. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Sept 25 private Russian military contractors have a “legitimate” right to be in Mali because they were invited by the country’s transitional government – but he insisted that the Russian government was not involved. Meanwhile, in his address to the UN General Assembly, Mali’s Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga accused France of abandoning his country with its “unilateral” decision to withdraw troops. With France preparing to reduce its military presence in the Sahel region, the Malian government estimated that “its own capacities would be insufficient in the absence of external support” and initiated the discussions, Lavrov told reporters on the sidelines of the UNGA. “This is an activity which has been carried out on a legitimate basis,” he said. “We have nothing to do with that.” Lavrov’s comments came after European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that the bloc’s ties with Mali could be seriously affected if it allows Russian private military contractors from the controversial Wagner Group to operate in the country. Click here to read

Sudan transitional government says coup attempt has failed

Sudanese authorities have reported a failed attempt to overthrow the country’s transitional government, blaming “military officers and civilians” from the former government of deposed President Omar al-Bashir. Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok addressed the attempted coup, which took place early on Sept 21, as “an extension of previous attempts” to overthrow the transitional government created after al-Bashir was removed from power in 2019 by the military follow months of mass protests against his rule. “They tried to take advantage of the situation in different towns by closing the ports and the roads. They took advantage of the national crisis and tried to stop us from moving forward during this transitional period,” Hamdok said. Earlier on Sept 21, Information Minister Hamza Baloul said military officers and civilians linked to al-Bashir had attempted a coup but were swiftly brought under control. “We brought under control a coup attempt by military officers early Sept 21,” Baloul said. Authorities “have arrested leaders of the failed plot, which involved military officers and civilians belonging to the defunct regime”, he added. The military said “most” of those involved in the coup attempt had been arrested, including 11 officers. Click here to read

Medical

Pfizer begins study of oral drug for prevention of COVID-19

Pfizer said on Sep 27 it has started a mid-to-late-stage study testing its investigational oral antiviral drug for the prevention of COVID-19 infection among those who have been exposed to the virus. The company and its rivals, including US-based Merck & Co and Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG, have been racing to develop the first antiviral pill for COVID-19. Pfizer said it would study the drug, PF-07321332, in up to 2,660 healthy adult participants aged 18 and older who live in the same household as an individual with a confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 infection. The trial would test PF-07321332 with a low dose of ritonavir, an older medication widely used in combination treatments for HIV infection. Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said earlier this month they had begun enrolling patients in a late-stage trial of their experimental drug molnupiravir for prevention of COVID-19 infection. Pfizer had also said earlier this month it started a mid-to-late-stage trial of PF-07321332 for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalised, symptomatic adult patients. Click here to read

US authorizes Pfizer booster for the elderly and high-risk

The US on Sept 22 authorized the use of boosters of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for people aged over 65, as well as adults at high risk of severe disease and those in high-exposure jobs. The announcement means a significant part of the population, amounting to tens of millions of Americans, are now eligible for a third shot six months after their second. “Today’s action demonstrates that science and the currently available data continue to guide the FDA’s decision-making for COVID-19 vaccines during this pandemic,” said Janet Woodcock, acting head of the Food and Drug Administration, in a statement. The decision was expected and came after an independent expert panel convened by the regulatory agency last week voted in favor of recommending the move. The panel, however, rejected an initial plan by the White House to fully approve Pfizer boosters to everyone aged 16 and over, in what amounted to a rare rebuke of President Joe Biden’s administration. The group of vaccinologists, infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists concluded that the benefit-risk balance differed for younger people, especially young males who are more susceptible to myocarditis. Click here to read

New York hospitals face staff shortages as COVID-19 vaccine mandate kicks in

New York hospitals were preparing to fire thousands of healthcare workers for not complying with a COVID-19 vaccine mandate taking effect on Sep 27, with some in the upstate region curtailing services to cope with staff shortages. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio told a news conference that hospitals in the city were not seeing a major impact from the mandate, but that he was worried about other areas of the state where vaccination rates are lower. Catholic Health, one of the largest healthcare providers in Western New York, had said it would postpone some elective surgeries on Sept 27 as it works to boost its vaccination rate, which reached 90 per cent of workers as of Sept 26 afternoon. New York’s state health department issued an order last month mandating that all healthcare workers receive at least their first COVID-19 shot by Sep 27, triggering a rush by hospitals to get their employees inoculated. Of the 43,000 employees at the New York City’s 11 public hospitals, about 5,000 were not vaccinated, Dr. Mitchell Katz, head of NYC Health + Hospitals, said at the news conference. Click here to read

Japan on track to see state of emergency lifted on schedule

The government plans to lift the COVID-19 state of emergency for all 19 prefectures that will end on Sept. 30 as scheduled, sources said. It wants to avoid issuing pre-emergency measures for those prefectures once the emergency ends since the infection situation in Japan has been recently improving. “I think that we can lift the state of emergency at the end of September if the current infection situation continues (to trend downward),” health minister Norihisa Tamura said during a Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK) TV debate program on Sept. 26. The government will effectively decide on its plan at a Sept. 27 meeting to be attended by ministers responsible for responding to the health crisis. If the government’s expert panel on countermeasures against COVID-19 discusses and approves the plan on Sept. 28, the government will make its official decision at the task force meeting. It will make the final call after hearing opinions from local governments and experts, with an eye to lifting pre-emergency measures for all eight prefectures and the state of emergency for all 19 prefectures. As of Sept. 23, the hospital bed occupancy rate for COVID-19 patients in those 19 prefectures have dropped below 50 percent, the criteria for lifting the state of emergency. Click here to read

COVID-19 vaccine boosters could mean billions for drugmakers

Billions more in profits are at stake for some vaccine makers as the U.S. moves toward dispensing COVID-19 booster shots to shore up Americans’ protection against the virus. How much the manufacturers stand to gain depends on how big the rollout proves to be. U.S. health officials late on Sept 23 endorsed booster shots of the Pfizer vaccine for all Americans 65 and older — along with tens of millions of younger people who are at higher risk from the coronavirus because of health conditions or their jobs. Officials described the move as a first step. Boosters will likely be offered even more broadly in the coming weeks or months, including boosters of vaccines made by Moderna and Johnson & Johnson. That, plus continued growth in initial vaccinations, could mean a huge gain in sales and profits for Pfizer and Moderna in particular. Wall Street is taking notice. The average forecast among analysts for Moderna’s 2022 revenue has jumped 35% since President Joe Biden laid out his booster plan in mid-August. Most of the vaccinations so far in the U.S. have come from Pfizer, which developed its shot with Germany’s BioNTech, and Moderna. They have inoculated about 99 million and 68 million people, respectively. Johnson & Johnson is third with about 14 million people. Click here to read

Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor, News Digests

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 13 September – 19 September 2021

September 24, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

U.S.-China tensions knock 96% off of bilateral tech investment

Political tensions have decimated tech-sector investment between the U.S. and China as the world’s two biggest economies attempt to decouple their supply chains, according to a recent report. Between 2016 and 2020, overall direct investment between the two countries fell 75% from $62 billion to $16 billion, with the tech sector alone plunging 96% over the period, according to Bain and Co.’s latest annual technology report released on Sept 20. Investments from China to the U.S. fell much more steeply than those in the opposite direction due to Washington’s crackdown on Chinese companies creating geopolitical uncertainties for businesses, Anne Hoecker, the partner with Bain & Co. who led the research, told Nikkei Asia. “The business environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. was probably a little bit less secure than it was before, and they [China] just turned their focus to investments in Europe and Africa,” said Hoecker, who specializes in technology and semiconductor practices.Chinese overall direct investment to the U.S. dwindled to just $7.2 billion in 2020 from $48.5 billion in 2016. U.S. investment in China dropped 35% to $8.69 billion over the same period.

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Raise debt limit or face crisis, warn US CEOs

Business Roundtable, an association of over 200 chief executive officers (CEOs) of America’s leading companies, on Sept 15 warned US congressional leaders of the prospect of an economic crisis if they fail to swiftly raise the debt limit. “Failure to lift the US federal debt limit to meet US obligations would produce an otherwise avoidable crisis and pose unacceptable risk to the nation’s economic growth, job creation and financial markets,” the letter read. Doug McMillon, chairman of Business Roundtable and president & CEO of Walmart, and Joshua Bolten, president & CEO of Business Roundtable, were among the writers of the letter to congressional leaders. “An extended period of uncertainty around the debt ceiling poses an even higher risk than usual as America continues to confront economic risk from the pandemic,” the executives wrote. Moreover, erosion of the country’s credit position would also result in “permanently higher borrowing costs” for the federal government and American companies, they warned, urging Congress to raise the debt limit “well before the mid-October deadline.”
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Beijing’s bid to join CPTPP may fail yet also succeed, experts say

Beijing’s attempt to join the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may be a tough sell for members with which it has strained relations, such as Australia, Japan and Canada, but experts said it signalled to the region that China was a willing strategic partner, and to the United States that it would not be pushed around. It had already floated the idea to members after President Xi Jinping said last November his country was seriously interested in joining. A Beijing-based professor, who declined to be named because of the political sensitivity, said it was very unlikely China would agree to CPTPP requirements or that members would trust China to follow those standards if it committed to. “This is very likely to be a diplomatic démarche, rather than pursued out of long-term economic calculation,” they said. “It is just like the rationale for signing the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with the European Union. Perhaps the Chinese government feels that it needs to send this message to the US that China cannot be boycotted.
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Beijing to break up Ant’s Alipay and force creation of separate loans app

Beijing wants to break up Alipay, the 1bn-plus-user superapp owned by Jack Ma’s Ant Group and create a separate app for the company’s highly profitable loans business, in the most visible restructuring yet of the fintech giant.Chinese regulators have already ordered Ant to separate the back end of its two lending businesses, Huabei, which is similar to a traditional credit card, and Jiebei, which makes small unsecured loans, from the rest of its financial offerings and bring in outside shareholders. Now officials want the two businesses to be split into an independent app as well. The plan would also require Ant to turn over the user data that underpins its lending decisions to a new credit scoring joint venture which would be partly state-owned, according to two people familiar with the process. “The government believes big tech’s monopoly power comes from their control of data,” said one person close to financial regulators in Beijing. “It wants to end that.” The move may slow down Ant’s lending business, with the enormous growth of Huabei and Jiebei partly powering its planned IPO last year. The CreditTech unit, which includes the two units, overtook Ant’s main payment processing business for the first time in the first half of 2020, to account for 39 per cent of the group’s revenues.
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Climate change to force mass migration

Reduced agricultural production, water scarcity, rising sea levels and other effects of climate change could cause up to 216 million people to leave their homes and migrate within their own countries by 2050, the World Bank has warned. The estimate from the Washington-based development lender released Sept 13 updates a 2018 report with new figures from Eastern Europe and Central Asia, North Africa and East Asia and the Pacific to provide a more complete overview of the potential toll from rising global temperatures.”Climate change is an increasingly potent driver of migration,” the report said. Shortages of food and water along with rising seas highlight “the urgency for action as livelihoods and human well-being are placed under increasing strain.”Juergen Voegele, the World Bank’s vice president for sustainable development, said the data give a “global estimate” of the scale of potential migration.
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China seeks to lure new international corporate sustainability body to capital

China is trying to persuade a new international agency that will set corporate rules on climate change and environmental reporting to set up its headquarters in Beijing. The effort to bring the International Sustainability Standards Board to the capital is part of China’s efforts to stop its economy becoming decoupled from the rest of the world and play a leading part in international ruling bodies. It follows its application this week to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and discussions with the Group of 20 over global tax rates and e-commerce. The creation of the new body, which is being set up by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation, was endorsed by a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Venice in July. In his letter this week to Erkki Liikanen, chairman of IFRS Foundation Trustees and former governor of the Finnish central bank, Finance Minister Liu Kun pledged to “work together” to ensure the body could be set up early. “We warmly invite the trustees to set up the [sustainability board] headquarters in Beijing,” said the document, dated Sept 14 and published online on Sept 17.
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Taiwan investment delegation to visit Slovakia, Czech Republic, Lithuania

A Taiwan investment delegation will visit Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Lithuania Oct. 20-30 as part of government efforts to enhance business and trade ties with the EU member states, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sept. 14. Led by National Development Council Minister Kung Ming-hsin, the 65-member group comprising officials and business leaders will work with regional counterparts on building interconnected and resilient supply chains for the democratic world, the MOFA said.Taiwan, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Lithuania are like-minded partners sharing the values of freedom, democracy and respect for human rights, the MOFA said, adding that the country enjoys increasingly frequent exchanges with all three EU member states.The historic visit to Taiwan by the Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil and his delegation Aug. 30 to Sept. 4, 2020, is also a contributing factor, the ministry added.According to the MOFA, the tour is expected to expand the reach of Taiwan firms in key industrial sectors, help fast track supply chain restructuring among global democratic partners and promote peace, stability and prosperity for people.
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Taiwan calls for quick start to trade talks with EU

Taiwan’s government called on the European Union to quickly begin trade talks after the bloc pledged to seek a trade deal with the tech-heavyweight island, something Taipei has long angled for. The EU included Taiwan on its list of trade partners for a potential bilateral investment agreement in 2015, the year before President Tsai Ing-wen first became Taiwan’s president but has not held talks with Taiwan on the issue since then.Responding to the EU’s newly announced strategy to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific, including seeking a trade deal with Taiwan, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said on Sept 17 talks should start soon. The European Parliament has already given its backing to a EU trade deal with Taiwan. “We call on the European Union to initiate the pre-negotiation work of impact assessment, public consultation and scope definition for a Bilateral Investment Agreement with Taiwan as soon as possible in accordance with the resolutions of the European Parliament,” it said.
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Airlines’ Debt Pile Hits $340 Billion as Covid Chokes Travel

Airlines are piling on more debt as surging coronavirus cases force travellers to cancel plans and stay home. The industry’s outstanding debt has jumped 23% since 2020 to $340 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this year, global air carriers have sold $63 billion in bonds and loans. It’s more evidence that the industry faces a bumpy road ahead, with many border restrictions still in place and the highseason of summer vacations in the U.S. and Europe coming to an end. EasyJet Plc and Japan Airlines Co. announced new fundraising plans this month to help them weather the prolonged pandemic. “The spread of the Delta variant may lead to other countries imposing tougher quarantine rules on visitors,” said Susannah Streeter, a senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Many carriers are returning to the bond market after last year’s dash-for-cash when the pandemic first struck. The big sales show that investors are still ready and willing to give ample funding to the industry.
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Suit claims BP trader sacked for raising Nigeria bribe concerns

BP Plc fired an ex-oil trader because he voiced concerns about bribes being paid in Nigeria to secure local contracts, according to a sprawling London employment suit that sheds light on the energy giant’s lucrative trading floor. Jonathan Zarembok, who traded on BP’s West Africa desk, said that the company paid an “abnormally large” fee to a local agent to participate in a state oil tender. He alleged that BP’s traders also sought to make payments in a deal that would have been the largest the desk had ever struck in Nigeria, before the transaction was ended, according to the lawsuit. “We were paying agents in Nigeria huge multiples of what we paid in other regions even though those agents did not perform services of any real value to BP,” Zarembok said in his witness statement. “Our proposed reasons for paying the agent these sums were a sham.”BP argued that the payments were legitimate and were fully scrutinized by its deal governance board that included the trading floor’s most senior executives. Lawyers for the firm said that the bribery allegations were investigated and couldn’t be substantiated. Zarembok didn’t raise specific concerns about corruption at the time, BP said.
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Strategic

Biden denies China’s Xi turned down meeting offer

U.S. President Joe Biden denied on Sept 14 a media report that his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, last week turned down an offer from Biden for a face-to-face meeting. The Financial Times cited multiple people briefed on a 90-minute call between the two leaders last week as saying Xi did not take Biden up on the offer and instead insisted that Washington adopt a less strident tone toward Beijing. “It’s not true,” Biden said when asked by reporters if he was disappointed that Xi did not want to meet with him.Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said in a statement earlier on Sept 14 that the report was “not an accurate portrayal of the call. Period.” A source who was among those briefed on the call confirmed the report was accurate.The G20 summit in Italy in October has been talked about as a possible venue for a face-to-face meeting, but Xi has not left China since the outbreak of the pandemic early last year.In his statement, Sullivan added: “As we’ve said, the Presidents discussed the importance of being able to have private discussions between the two leaders, and we’re going to respect that.”
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Blinken defends Afghan withdrawal at angry U.S. congressional hearing

Secretary of State Antony Blinken beat back criticism of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan on Sept 13, at a contentious congressional hearing where at least one Republican called on him to resign.In testy exchanges with lawmakers, Blinken defended President Joe Biden’s decision to pull out and pushed back on accusations that the State Department might have done more to help Americans and at-risk Afghans to be evacuated, blaming the previous administration for lacking a plan. He repeatedly noted that Republican former President Donald Trump had negotiated the withdrawal agreement with the Taliban and said President Joe Biden’s administration did not consider renegotiating because of threats from the group to resume killing Americans.”There’s no evidence that staying longer would have made the Afghan security forces or the Afghan government any more resilient or self-sustaining,” Blinken said.”We inherited a deadline. We did not inherit a plan,” Blinken said, referring to the Trump administration’s agreement to remove all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by May 1.Members of Congress – Biden’s fellow Democrats as well as opposition Republicans — have planned hearings since the Taliban seized control of the country last month after a rapid advance.
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Taliban Deny Rift Within Ranks of New Afghan Leadership

Taliban leaders insisted that there is no rift within the Islamist movement over how to rule Afghanistan, with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a deputy prime minister, appearing Sept 16 on state television to squelch rumours of his death or injury. Mr. Baradar, who headed the Taliban’s political office in Doha, Qatar, and signed the February 2020 Doha agreement on the withdrawal of American troops, skipped Sept 05 meeting between the Taliban leadership and the visiting foreign minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. Sheikh Mohammed’s trip was the first and so far only public ministerial-level visit to Kabul since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on Aug. 15 and proclaimed a restoration of their Islamic Emirate, deposing the Afghan republic established following the 2001 U.S. invasion. Mr. Baradar, a relative moderate, was flown back to Afghanistan aboard a Qatari military aircraft last month, and his absence from the meeting with Sheikh Mohammed sparked a swirl of social-media speculation about conflict within the Taliban. Kabul residents relayed rumours about an alleged shootout in the presidential palace between Mr. Baradar and leaders of the Haqqani family, another power center within the Islamist movement. It didn’t help that it had taken days for Mr. Baradar to surface on video since then.
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Regional powers at summit demand U.S. fund Afghan aid

Russia, China, Pakistan and other regional states called on the United States on Sept 17 to engage with the Taliban and fund aid to Afghanistan, though they also urged the former insurgents to yield power to a more inclusive government. Leaders of the SCO group said it was the responsibility of the West in general and the United States in particular to help avert a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan, where Western aid propped up the government swept away by the Taliban last month. “The main part of the expenses related to Afghanistan’s post-conflict rebuilding should be borne by the United States and NATO countries who are directly responsible for the grave consequences of their prolonged presence in the country,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said. He called on Washington to unfreeze assets of the Afghan central bank, which have been blocked since the Taliban takeover, saying without access to the funds, Afghanistan’s new rulers would be tempted to turn to the drugs and arms trades. China’s President Xi Jinping, without mentioning the United States by name, said “certain countries” should assume their due responsibilities for Afghanistan’s future development, having been “instigators” of the situation.
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Quad leaders to call for securing chip supply chain

Leaders from the U.S., Japan, India and Australia will agree to work toward creating a safe supply chain for semiconductors when they meet for the Quad summit in Washington next week, a signal that the four-way alliance meant to counter China in the Indo-Pacific is broadening its scope. The four nations are expected to confirm that “resilient, diverse and secure technology supply chains for hardware, software, and services” are vital to their shared national interests, according to the draft of a joint statement obtained by Nikkei. The document sets common principles on technological development, holding that “the way in which technology is designed, developed, governed and used should be shaped by our shared democratic values and respect for universal human rights. “The draft of the joint statement does not specifically mention China, a nod to India’s intention to keep its nonaligned status and avoid moving forward on cooperation with specific countries. Still, in an apparent reference to China’s alleged tech misappropriation, the draft stresses that “illicit transfer or theft of technology is a common challenge that undermines the very foundation of global technological development and should be addressed.”
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Myanmar shadow government sets up office in South Korea

Myanmar’s pro-democracy camp opposing the military regime that took over the country has established a representative office in South Korea. This is the National Unity Government’s first representative office in Asia, having already set up in the U.S., the U.K., France, Czech Republic and Australia. The pro-democracy camp launched its first-ever representative office in the U.S. in February, according to NUG members. This was followed by the opening of the Czech office in May. “The representatives have been officially appointed, and their credentials have been provided to diplomatic officials in those countries,” said an NUG official. The NUG was formed in April by lawmakers of the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and others. Its activities have mostly been carried out online. The NUG has been trying to win recognition from the international community as the legitimate government of Myanmar while the military, which assumed power on Feb. 1, tightens its control of the country. Establishing a representative office alone does not mean that a host nation has officially recognized the NUG, but it could facilitate dialogue.
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Turkey’s push into Africa has China looking over its shoulder

Turkey’s inroads into Africa have seen the country expand the number of embassies in Africa to 43 from just 12 in 2002. During his time in power since 2003 — both as prime minister and president — Erdogan has visited 28 different African countries for a total of 38 times, making him the most frequent-visiting global leader to the continent. Calling Turkey “an Afro-Eurasia state,” Erdogan has used every tool in his kit to engage with African states. In Muslim African countries, Turkey has built mosques. In Northern Africa, Erdogan has used the Ottoman card, talking about the historic ties. In countries unhappy with old colonial powers exploiting oil and minerals, Erdogan uses his favourite move serving as the “voice of the oppressed people.” Turkey’s web of relations is not well understood in the West. Richard Outzen, a geopolitical consultant and former member of the U.S. State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, says that of all the misconceptions in Washington about Turkey, the notion that Ankara is diplomatically isolated is “perhaps the most distorted of all the lenses.”For Turkey, the new target is penetration into sub-Saharan Africa, utilizing the newly established embassies, commercial counsellors and direct flights.
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Hundreds of aid trucks have failed to return from Tigray, UN says

Hundreds of aid trucks have not returned from Ethiopia’s war-hit Tigray region, and their disappearance is “the primary impediment” to ramping up the humanitarian response, the United Nations has said. The disclosure on Sept 17 from the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) comes amid rising fears of starvation deaths in Tigray, where the UN has previously estimated that about 350,000 people faced famine-like conditions. Since July 12, 445 contracted non-WFP trucks have entered Tigray, but only 38 have returned, WFP spokeswoman Gemma Snowdon said in a statement. “At the moment this is the primary impediment to moving humanitarian aid into Tigray. We are unable to assemble convoys of significant size due to lack of trucks,” Snowdon said. “We are continuing to work with transporters and local authorities in Tigray for trucks to be released.” WFP has no information about where the trucks are or what they are being used for, Snowdon said. Northern Ethiopia has been racked by violence since last November when President Abiy Ahmed, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, sent troops into Tigray, saying the move was in response to attacks on army camps by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
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Secret Syria talks speak to a post-US Middle East era

In early September, a delegation of leaders from Lebanon’s Druze community met with Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus, a move that surprised many regional observers.This was because the Syrian president’s status – after years of brutal and bloody civil war – has been largely that of international pariah. Yet, as the often-ostracized Al-Assad reportedly remarked to his Lebanese visitors, these days, “Many leaders of Arab and non-Arab states are communicating with us, but asking us to keep this a secret.” Those “secret” contacts have been ratcheting up in recent days against the background of renewed conflict inside Syria.Indeed, with Russian, Iranian and pro-Assad forces finally crushing a new uprising in the southern Syrian city of Dara’a earlier this month, the diplomatic players have been moving around the Middle Eastern checkerboard at an unusual rate. On August 28, leaders and foreign ministers from Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq (plus France) met in Baghdad. Joining them were foreign ministers from Iran and Saudi Arabia – long major regional rivals. Similarly, the UAE and Turkey also met at the summit, despite major disputes over issues ranging from Libya to the Middle Eastern status quo.
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What Iran’s membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation means

Iran’s bid to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was approved after almost 15 years by the bloc’s seven permanent members on Sept 17. After the technical and legal process concludes – which could take up to two years – Iran will formally join a group that accounts for about one-third of the world’s land and exports trillions of dollars annually – as it counts China, Russia and India, in addition to several Central Asian states, among its members. Following his return from a summit in Tajikistan’s Dushanbe, President Ebrahim Raisi termed the approval a “diplomatic success” that means linking Iran to the economic infrastructures of Asia and its vast resources.During a speech at the two-day summit, he had denounced “unilateralism” by the United States and called for a concerted effort to fight sanctions. President Raisi held a string of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the SCO summit. Among other things, they led to the signing of eight agreements with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. The two set a target of $500m for annual bilateral trade, which is close to 10 times higher than the current levels.Rather than major political or economic gains, Iran’s main takeaway from this success in the short term may be limited to a boost in prestige and diplomacy.
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US Coast Guard spots Chinese warships off Alaska

Four Chinese warships, including one of its most advanced destroyers, were spotted sailing in the waters off Alaska late last month as the Chinese navy steadily expands its range, according to photos posted on a Pentagon information service. The photos taken by the US Coast Guard showed the four Chinese naval vessels shadowed by two US Coast Guard cutters in international waters within the US’ exclusive economic zone in the Aleutian Islands on August 29 and August 30, according to the Defence Visual Information Distribution Service. According to the photo captions, the US and Chinese vessels had “safe and professional” interactions and their verbal communications were in accordance with international standards, including the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a non-legally binding agreement to prevent clashes at sea. The Chinese vessels were a Type 055 destroyer, a Type 052D destroyer, a Type 815 spy ship and a Type 903 replenishment ship. The photos were posted online on Sept 13 and removed hours later. The Chinese defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
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Chinese military steps up night drills and brings in more advanced equipment close to Indian border

The Chinese military’s Western Theatre Command has introduced more night drills for units stationed near the Himalayan border as it seeks to familiarise its troops with new-generation weapons and equipment. Since the start of the autumn, several forces in the Xinjiang military district have been carrying out night battle drills at altitudes of around 5,000 metres (16,400 feet), according to the military newspaper PLA Daily. “We have revised our schedules and demanded soldiers meet higher standards for high-altitude training as we need to deal with a harsher battlefield environment amid increasing challenges in the peripheral areas,” Yang Yang, a company commander, told the newspaper. Yang said his mechanised force had been crossing the snowy highlands without lights and practising night-time live-fire machine gun drills. Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor, said almost all the old generation J-7 fighter jets in the Western Military Command had been replaced by the advanced J-16 multirole strike fighter. “All advanced weapons need to be repeatedly tested through regular drills, and pilots flying at high altitudes need to cooperate with land forces, special combat troops and other units in the modern joint operation concept,” Song said.
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How a submarine deal sparked a major diplomatic crisis

Australia’s decision to cancel a multibillion-dollar order for French submarines in favour of American and British technology has sparked a diplomatic row of unprecedented proportions between long time Western allies. The French foreign ministry recalled its ambassadors to the United States and Australia citing “duplicity, disdain and lies”. Alongside the economic damage for tens of billions of euros, France said it resents the way Australia and its partners have handled the matter. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, said, “There has been contempt so it’s not going well between us, not at all.” President Emmanuel Macron will have a call with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, in the next few days, the French government said on Sept 19.Australia announced on Sept 15 it would ditch a contract worth more than 50 billion euros ($59bn) to acquire 12 French-made diesel-electric submarines. Instead, it will commission at least eight US nuclear-powered submarines in the framework of a new alliance – known by its acronym AUKUS. The partnership, however, cuts France out of the procurement deal it won in 2016 over offers from Germany and Japan. The US and the UK had not taken part in the bidding process.
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‘Not a defence alliance’: Australia looks to assuage Asean’s concerns over Aukus nuclear subs deal

Australia on Sept 20 sought to assuage regional anxieties over its plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines through a joint arrangement with Britain and the United States, with Canberra’s envoy to Asean saying the agreement was “not a defence alliance or pact”. In a statement, Will Nankervis said the arrangement would not change “Australia’s commitment to Asean nor our ongoing support for the Asean-led regional infrastructure”. Canberra was committed to continuing to foster a “peaceful, secure region” with the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations at its centre, Jakarta-based Nankervis said. His comments follow expressions of concern by Indonesia and Malaysia over the tripartite Aukus group’s announcement last week regarding Australia’s submarine acquisition plans. Though Canberra had made clear it had no intention for the submarines – which are to be operational in the 2040s – to be armed with nuclear weapons, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said he was concerned the development might “catalyse a nuclear arms race” in the Indo-Pacific.
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Malaysia PM to sign cooperation pandemic pact

Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s coalition and the main opposition bloc is set to sign a cooperation pact on Sept 13 to ensure political stability during the COVID-19 pandemic, in a move that could also help the premier with any confidence vote. Parliament is scheduled to convene from Sept 13, but no date has been set for the confidence vote. In a joint statement published late on Sept 12, representatives from the government and the Pakatan Harapan opposition bloc – led by Anwar Ibrahim – said they have agreed to focus on “transformation initiatives and reforms.” “All parties have agreed that this MoU is aimed at returning political stability to the country in order to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and revive the economy through bi-partisan cooperation,” they said. The pact follows Ismail Sabri’s offer on Sept 10 to introduce political reforms including new laws to prevent defections and limit the term of a prime minister to 10 years, in a bid to win opposition support for his leadership. His offer also includes bipartisan agreement on every bill to be introduced in parliament, input from opposition parties on a national recovery council and immediate lowering of the minimum voting age from 21 to 18.
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TTP’s enmity toward Pakistan creates risk for Chinese projects: analysts

By claiming it has close ties with the Afghan Taliban and no hostility toward China, the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is hoping to improve its circumstances following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, analysts said. But they warned that the TTP may continue its attacks in Pakistan and cause damage to China’s projects and personnel in the country. In an exclusive interview with Japanese media outlet Mainichi Shimbun, TTP leader Mufti Wali Noor Mehsud welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan after 20 years of absence and said that “we are hopeful for a strong relationship between the two of us.” The TTP, established in 2007, is an alliance of militant groups based in northwest Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan. Encouraged by the Afghan Taliban’s victory, the TTP wants to realize Pashtuns’ rule in Pakistan. This is an issue of concern for the Pakistan government, Zhang said, noting that the resurgence of extremist groups in the region may affect the regional situation and more problems may emerge after the US withdrawal.
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Afghanistan’s Taliban Prohibit Girls From Attending Secondary School

Teenage Afghan girls weren’t allowed to return to school on Sept 18 as classrooms across the country reopened for the first time since the Taliban took power last month, raising fears that their new fundamentalist government will permanently ban secondary education for girls. The absence of teenage girls in classrooms, while their male peers returned, followed a decree issued by the Taliban on Sept 17 ordering male students and teachers to return to high schools and religious seminaries. The statement from the ministry of education didn’t mention girls, amounting to a de facto ban for now on them going to secondary school. The Taliban have allowed girls up to sixth grade to attend school, but they will be taught in separate classrooms from boys. Some private universities have also been allowed to open classrooms for girls, though most female students appear to be staying home out of fear. Afghanistan’s universities are regulated by a separate ministry from the ministry of education.The news raises fresh fears as to how the Taliban will treat Afghan women.
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Japan PM candidates deny toning down views on hot-button issues to attract votes

Two of the candidates vying to become Japan’s next prime minister denied on Sept 18 they had toned down their positions on nuclear energy and gender issues to attract conservative backing in a tight ruling party leadership election this month. The winner of the Sept. 29 contest to lead the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is almost certain to succeed Yoshihide Suga as the country’s next premier because the party has a majority in the lower house. Suga announced he would step down two weeks ago amid sinking approval ratings, triggering the leadership race between four candidates. They are vaccine minister Taro Kono, 58, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, 64, Sanae Takaichi, 60, a former internal affairs minister from the party’s most conservative wing, and Seiko Noda, 61, a former minister for gender equality. Surveys of voters show Kono is their top choice, a key factor ahead of a general election due by November. But the social-media savvy, U.S.-educated Kono, who has also served as foreign and defence minister, is widely seen as a maverick – an image that worries many veteran party members.
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Comrades in arms? West is cheering on Russia’s Communists, but heirs of Bolsheviks even more skeptical of US, EU & NATO than Putin

According to the exit polls and those votes counted so far, the Communist Party (KPRF) is set to be the biggest winner from the drop in support for United Russia, the governing faction backed by President Vladimir Putin. The Communists are, however, the main – if not the only – nationwide opposition party that can challenge the direction of Putin and United Russia. As the largest opposition group, the KPRF was always likely to make gains after a turbulent few years of sanctions, rising prices and the socio-economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.It’s also worth asking why those in the Western media are so at ease with the prospect of the Communists doing well in Russia, three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Few seem to be asking what it really means. Amid all the furore, it is easy to forget that Putin has historically positioned himself as a political moderate and did his part to prevent the return of the communists and keep the country on a market economy track. In the 1990s, then-President Boris Yeltsin’s entire liberal and pro-Western political platform collapsed when it became evident that Russia would be excluded from the new Europe, while the country faced socio-economic and political implosion.
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Medical

China’s first giant quarantine station to be put into use

China’s first giant international health station providing quarantine and medical services to all inbound travellers is expected to be put into use in Guangzhou, South China’s Guangdong Province in late September, which could reduce the infection risk during quarantine and replace quarantine hotels, media reports said on Sept 17.Construction of the first phase of the station has been completed and the first batch of 184 medical staff started working in the station on Sept 17. The 250,000-square-meter station with 5,074 rooms is China’s first international health station to replace quarantine hotels, jiemian.com reported on Sept 17. The first batch of medical staff will work with the help of artificial intelligence equipment to reduce unnecessary contact. Smart equipment can help travellers to have a temperature check, epidemiological investigation and check in and out, while a screen in the quarantine room can automatically upload health information and conduct temperature checks, with robots providing food and other daily necessities to travellers. Guangzhou experienced China’s first outbreak with the Delta variant in May.
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India to resume COVID vaccine exports to COVAX, neighbours

The country’s monthly vaccine output has since more than doubled and is set to quadruple to more than 300 million doses next month, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said, adding that only excess supplies would be exported. “We will help other countries and also fulfil our responsibility towards COVAX,” he told reporters on Sept 20. Media reports last week said India was considering restarting exports of COVID-19 vaccines soon. It donated or sold 66 million doses to nearly 100 countries before the export halt. The announcement on resumption of exports comes before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States this week where vaccines are likely to be discussed at a summit of the leaders of the Quad countries – the US, India, Japan and Australia. India wants to vaccinate all its 944 million adults by December and has so far given at least one dose to 64 percent of them and two doses to 22 percent. India’s inoculations have jumped since last month, especially as the world’s biggest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India, has more than trebled its output of the AstraZeneca shot to 200 million doses a month from April levels. Indian companies have set up the capacity to produce nearly three billion COVID vaccine doses a year.
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Global Developments And Analysis: Weekly Monitor

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 06 September – 12 September 2021

September 15, 2021 vd@admin

Economic

Global Economic Warfare Intensifies as Military Conflict Recedes

The last American soldier had barely left Afghanistan when President Biden pledged that pressure on the Taliban would continue through other means, in particular what he described as economic tools. He has since maintained sanctions on the Taliban, though the action imperils Afghanistan’s aid-dependent economy. It is the latest step in the U.S.’s and the world’s shifting preference from military to economic warfare. Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. on average sanctioned more than 1,000 people or entities a year, often by barring their access to the U.S. financial system. That was more than double the average of the prior 16 years, according to the law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher. Though Mr. Biden has promised to review the use of sanctions, he is now on track to match Mr. Trump’s pace. He has hit 13 different countries for human rights violations, election interference, narcotics trafficking and more, according to Castellum.AI, which uses technology to track global sanctions activity. Sanctions owe their popularity today not just to the aversion to military conflict, especially among the nuclear-armed, but to globalization, which increases potential pressure points, and the rise of China, whose challenge to the U.S. is primarily economic, not military.
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China’s factory and consumer prices continue to diverge, ramping up concern of an economic slowdown

China is unlikely to make changes to its monetary policy even as factory-gate prices continue to rise and consumer inflation remains low, further exacerbating concerns of an economic slowdown, analysts say. The producer price index (PPI), which reflects the prices that factories charge wholesalers for their products, rose by 9.5 per cent in August from a year earlier, up slightly from 9 per cent in July, making it the third highest reading since records began, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sept 09. Coal prices hit new highs this week adding pressure to Chinese firms already struggling with other high raw material costs. The widening gap between factory gate inflation and consumer inflation is driving concern because it means manufacturers are suffering from high raw material prices – forcing some to begin curbing production – while soft CPI growth means producer costs are not being passed onto consumers, whose spending is weak and still crimped by the pandemic.
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Beijing lobbies Canberra for help to join CPTPP regional trade pact despite spat

China is lobbying the Australian government for its support to join a multilateral regional trade pact – despite the two nations being in a worsening geopolitical dispute that’s spilled over into economic reprisals. “China’s accession to the CPTPP would yield large economic benefits,” Beijing’s embassy in Canberra wrote in a submission to an Australian parliamentary inquiry into broadening the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). “China is committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind and stands ready to work together with all the other parties to promote globalisation and regional economic integration.” China has this year reached out to Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and possibly other nations for technical talks on details of the CPTPP, which was formed in 2018 despite the withdrawal of the United States under then-president Donald Trump, who described it as a “potential disaster.” The pact was originally conceived by his predecessor Barack Obama as an economic bloc to balance Beijing’s growing power.
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Beijing to break up Ant’s Alipay and force creation of separate loans app

Beijing wants to break up Alipay, the 1bn-plus-user superapp owned by Jack Ma’s Ant Group and create a separate app for the company’s highly profitable loans business, in the most visible restructuring yet of the fintech giant. Chinese regulators have already ordered Ant to separate the back end of its two lending businesses, Huabei, which is similar to a traditional credit card, and Jiebei, which makes small unsecured loans, from the rest of its financial offerings and bring in outside shareholders. Now officials want the two businesses to be split into an independent app as well. The plan would also require Ant to turn over the user data that underpins its lending decisions to a new credit scoring joint venture which would be partly state-owned, according to two people familiar with the process. “The government believes big tech’s monopoly power comes from their control of data,” said one person close to financial regulators in Beijing. “It wants to end that.”
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Discontent Simmers Over How to Police EU Privacy Rules

The European Union’s recent $270 million fine against WhatsApp was held up for months by disagreements among national authorities, ratcheting up tensions over how to enforce the bloc’s privacy rules. The varied approaches to policing the EU’s strict General Data Protection Regulation are fueling calls to redesign how national authorities from the 27 EU countries can intervene in each other’s cases and to explore creating a broader EU-wide regulatory system. WhatsApp, owned by Facebook Inc., was fined for failing to tell EU residents enough about what it does with their data, including sharing their information with other Facebook units. The fine was made public in early September by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission, which had jurisdiction over the case because WhatsApp’s and Facebook’s European headquarters is in Ireland. Eight other regulators said the Irish authority’s proposed fine of up to 50 million euros, equivalent to roughly $59 million, was too low and disagreed with the Irish regulator’s analysis of the company’s data practices. The regulators used a GDPR resolution process to settle their disagreements, and the Irish authority said it followed the other regulators’ recommendations, including raising the fine. But regulators and privacy experts say the process of sharing enforcement among national authorities has led to bottlenecks.
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Political uncertainty clouds China Inc.’s Afghanistan ambitions

Foreign companies active in Afghanistan face prolonged uncertainty as the new Taliban caretaker government grapples with a financial crisis and international reluctance to offer help. Since the Taliban seized power last month, at least 10 publicly listed companies in China have expressed hope that they will be able to participate in mining or infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, but they linked doing business to political and diplomatic developments. Businesses that had traded with Afghanistan or worked in the country under the previous U.S.-backed government are racing to assess the changing financial and security situations, or to build ties with Taliban officials. The Beijing-based Metallurgical Corporation of China, which has a license to the Aynak Copper Mine 40 km southeast of Kabul, said it remained committed to the long-stalled development. MMC was given a 30-year contract to develop the world’s second-largest copper deposit in 2008 but has suffered repeated delays.
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China promises to raise imports from ASEAN ahead of new rail link

Chinese officials have vowed to increase imports from Southeast Asian countries ahead of the opening of a new rail link to the bloc. Addressing the 18th China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in the southern Chinese city of Nanning, Vice President Wang Qishan said that both partners need to foster new development drivers to accelerate economic recovery. “We will treat ASEAN as a priority in China’s neighborhood diplomacy,” Wang told the gathering of diplomats, businesspersons and officials who tuned in via video link. “China will import more distinctive products from ASEAN, expand mutual investment, deepen the industrial supply chain and promote Lancang-Mekong cooperation,” he said, referring to an economic corridor with Indochina. Chinese trade with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew 38% to $410.7 billion in the first six month of 2021 from a year before, with exports to the bloc rising to $225.8 billion and imports reaching $184.9 billion. Lao Prime Minister Phankham Viphavanh said on Sept 10 that the country will open its first rail link with China on Dec 02. To the south, the line is to later extend across the Mekong from Vientiane to Thailand, reaching through to Bangkok. China has two rail links with Vietnam.
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Bangladesh tightens grip on Facebook, Twitter and other platforms

The Bangladeshi government is turning its focus to Facebook, Twitter and other global social media platforms as it broadens efforts to quell critical reports. The latest moves to keep an eye on public statements come three years after the government came down hard on TV stations and publications to stymie critical reporting. The government says its intentions are to “make social media platforms accountable,” Zunaid Ahmed Palak, junior minister for Information and Communication Technology Division, told Nikkei Asia. It is planning a law that would require social media platforms to store domestically generated user data on servers within the country. The law would also force the tech companies to provide information about social media accounts that the government deems to be spreading propaganda or false information. It is the next salvo in a series of endeavors to rein in Big Tech. In 2019, Dhaka introduced the amended Value Added Tax and Supplementary Duty Act, compelling international technology companies to make VAT payments. The value-added tax is a 15% charge on all sales proceeds.
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Power industry to discuss need of nuclear power with next Japan prime minister

Japan needs nuclear power, the head of an electricity sector federation said on Sept 10, adding that the industry would have a serious debate on energy policy with whoever becomes the next prime minister. Japan’s popular coronavirus vaccination minister, Taro Kono, previously known as a strong critic of nuclear energy, on Sept 10 announced his candidacy to lead the ruling party and, by extension, become the next prime minister. “We believe Japan needs nuclear power on the basis of current science and technology,” Kazuhiro Ikebe, chairman of the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, told reporters. “It is no use for us to be wary,” Ikebe said when asked if the industry was cautious about Kono becoming prime minister. “We will have a thorough and serious discussion with him and try to make him understand our stance,” Ikebe said, referring to what would happen if Kono were to become leader. Kono sounded more cautious on his stance on nuclear power at a Sept 10 news conference, declining to be labelled “anti-nuclear.” He said nuclear power plants dormant since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, that are deemed safe, could be restarted to help achieve a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
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Lebanon’s Mikati faces tricky path to safe economic ground

Lebanon’s new government has vowed to tackle one of the worst economic meltdowns in history. The path it must take includes reforms mapped out by donor states and institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund which have repeatedly said they will unlock funds once they see change. In exchange, Lebanon stands to gain billions of dollars of assistance. The alternative is to sink deeper into a depression that marks the biggest threat to Lebanon’s stability since its 1975-90 civil war. Successive governments have failed to implement changes due to Lebanon’s sectarian political system, so what kinds of reforms must its new Prime Minister Najib Mikati carry out and can he succeed where others have not? “IMF talks won’t be a walk in the park,” a former Lebanese negotiator in the IMF talks said. “It will be very difficult to meet the pre-conditions.” Many of the reforms concern the financial and banking system, the epicentre of the meltdown that took hold in late 2019, largely paralysing Lebanon’s banks.
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Strategic

Beijing warns Washington not to allow Taiwan to rename de facto embassy

Beijing has protested about the possibility of Washington allowing Taipei’s US office to be renamed and warned the United States not to challenge the one-China principle. Washington is considering a request from Taipei to change the name of its mission in the US capital from Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (Tecro) to Taiwan Representative Office, the Financial Times reported, citing multiple people briefed on internal US discussions. A final decision had not been made and would require President Joe Biden to sign an executive order, according to Sep 11’s report. Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday held their second telephone call of the former’s presidency, during which Biden said, “the US has never intended to change the one-China policy”, according to Beijing’s statement. A statement by the US government made no mention of the issue. Beijing views self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province, to be brought into its fold by force if necessary. Observers said Beijing would view a name change as breaking the one-China principle and fear a domino effect in other countries.
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Climate crisis: China’s all-or-nothing stand on talks leaves John Kerry cornered

Tackling the climate crisis is a “core national security priority” for US President Joe Biden. But saving a dangerously warming world may not always be compatible with his other highest priorities, such as confronting China. Look no further than his climate envoy John Kerry’s China visit last week. On the surface, Kerry was accorded the rare honour of a series of virtual meetings with Chinese leaders, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice-Premier Han Zheng, aside from talks with climate counterpart Xie Zhenhua. But the former US secretary of state in fact hit a stone wall when the Chinese hosts basically rolled their eyes at his suggestion that both sides rise above politics and treat climate cooperation as a “stand-alone issue”. Foreign Minister Wang firmly rejected that proposal, telling Kerry that climate cooperation could not be divorced from overall bilateral ties and the US first must “cease containing and suppressing China all over the world”. “The US side wants the climate change cooperation to be an ‘oasis’ of China-US relations. However, if the oasis is all surrounded by deserts, then sooner or later, the ‘oasis’ will be desertified,” Wang said.
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Turkey, Iran and Pakistan raise entry bars for Afghan refugees

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has triggered tough measures from countries in the region and beyond to stem an expected refugee inflow. Governments from Islamabad to Ankara and Tehran have bolstered border restrictions in anticipation of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the new regime in Kabul. Those actions and similar curbs signaled by Western countries have highlighted an emerging tension between claims of international sympathy for Afghan refugees and the reality on the ground. Governments are worried that refugees could start to pour out and exacerbate political and social problems created by previous influxes. Caught in the middle of this conundrum are Afghans who have escaped to Iran, in the hope of bringing their family over the border and possibly further afield. Ankara is fortifying a three-meter-high wall along part of its 560-km border with Iran that it started building in 2017. Iran has closed its border with Afghanistan and returned refugees, according to a Tehran newspaper. Pakistan’s army claims to have sealed all irregular crossings from Afghanistan, though domestic media have reported increased human trafficking across the border.
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As Taliban Seek International Acceptance, Countries Seek to Engage—but Stop Short of Recognition

With a new government in place and uncontested control over the country, Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are clamoring for international recognition of their reinstated Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Nearly a month after the fall of the Afghan republic, no nation has granted such recognition so far. Yet, governments world-wide, as well as the United Nations, are eager to open high-level contacts with the Taliban, especially as the country faces a humanitarian crisis. Some Western governments say that such dialogue with the Taliban is possible—and desirable—without de jure recognition of their administration. “Before recognition they should have some sort of mandate by the political will of the people,” a senior Western diplomat said. “But apart from the question of recognition we can interact with them, we can engage with them.” Before the reopening of Western embassies, all closed since the Aug. 15 fall of Kabul, that engagement can take the form of diplomats making short-term visits to Kabul, security conditions on the ground permitting, the diplomat added. Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on Sept 12 became the first foreign government minister to visit Kabul since the Taliban takeover.
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Afghan Kabul airport to be ready for int’l flights soon: official

Kabul International Airport will soon be ready for international flights as efforts are underway to remove technical problems, airport director Abdul Hadi Hamadani said Sept 13. “The domestic flights have already begun and the international flights would begin soon and efforts are underway to remove the remaining 10 to 15 percent technical problems at the airport,” Hamadani said in a video clip as quoted by local media. He made the remarks after the landing of a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) plane at the Kabul airport and its taking off on Sept 13. The Kabul airport were damaged with its many facilities destroyed during the withdrawal of the last U.S.-led forces and American nationals on Aug. 31, according to him. Hamadani also confirmed that the airport has received planes carrying humanitarian assistances from Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, adding that similar flights from Russia and Turkey are expected to arrive in the coming days.
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Taliban announces formation of new government, including some ministers sanctioned and WANTED by US

The Taliban has begun to fill government positions following its successful conquest of Afghanistan. Among the names are people still on the UN Security Council sanction list and a minister with a $5-million US bounty on his head. Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, a co-founder and head of the Taliban’s leadership council, was named acting Prime Minister of Afghanistan on Sept 07, with other senior Taliban leaders approving his nomination. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, considered the militant group’s de-facto leader, was named Deputy Prime Minister, according to a Taliban spokesman. Akhund is considered a terrorist by the UN, EU and UK, and has been sanctioned by the UN Security Council, along with every member of the Taliban government named on Sept 07. The US considers some Taliban factions to be Foreign Terrorist Organizations and sanctions the entire Taliban as a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ organization. Baradar was once hunted by the US, before being captured and jailed by Pakistani authorities. Sirajuddin Haqqani was named Acting Interior Minister, with his appointment standing out for one reason: Haqqani is considered an international terrorist by US authorities, with the FBI offering a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to his arrest.
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Drone attack targets Erbil International Airport hosting US-led coalition forces, multiple explosions reported

Footage from witnesses has captured multiple explosions at the Erbil International Airport in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The blasts were apparently from a drone strike targeting the airport, which is used by the US-led coalition. Local media reported, citing Kurdistan Region’s Directorate of Counter Terrorism (CTD), that “explosive-laden drones” targeted the air hub, which is hosting US forces that are part of the multinational coalition against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) in Iraq. At least six blasts were heard in the vicinity of the airport, Reuters reported, citing witnesses. Lawk Ghafuri, head of Kurdistan’s foreign media relations, confirmed the airport was attacked “with a drone,” dismissing reports of casualties or damage as false. Ghafuri said the explosion was “away from Erbil International Airport’s terminals and territories.” Missile defense systems were deployed to repel the attack, a source with the coalition forces told the media. It is unclear if the drones targeting the airport made an impact, the source said, noting that an investigation into the incident is still underway. The air hub has faced multiple attacks this year, and US officials have chalked up the aggression to militia groups targeting the US service members still remaining in the country.
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Iran hails ‘historic’ naval mission in Atlantic Ocean, the waters of the ‘arrogant powers’

The Iranian military has hailed the end of a successful mission in which its 77th strategic naval fleet ventured into the Atlantic for the first time, before returning to Iran, traveling some 45,000km (28,000 nautical miles). On Sept 07, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani praised his country’s seamen for their successful voyage. He called it the “largest historical military event in the sea field” and said the fleet had comprised the Sahand destroyer and the intelligence-gathering Makran logistics-support ship, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Irani said the fleet had travelled across three oceans – the Indian, South Atlantic and North Atlantic – covering around 45,000km (28,000 nautical miles). The admiral claimed the mission had demonstrated Iran’s self-confidence on the global stage but stressed that his nation invited all regional partners to come together in “peace and friendship.” The locally manufactured Sahand destroyer illustrated the nation’s scientific achievements, he said. He added that the mission had demonstrated the country’s “capability and authority” in waters where “the arrogant powers are present.” United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the mission was of “great concern.”
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IAEA-Iran agreement raises hopes for new nuclear talks with US

The UN atomic watchdog reached an agreement with Iran to solve “the most urgent issue” between them, the overdue servicing of monitoring equipment to keep it running, raising hopes of fresh talks on a wider deal with the West. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi obtained the agreement Sept 12 in a last-minute trip to Tehran he called “constructive” before a meeting of his agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors this week at which Western powers were threatening to seek a resolution criticising Iran for stonewalling the IAEA. A resolution risked an escalation with Tehran that could kill the prospect of resuming wider, indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, aimed at keeping Iran at arm’s length from being able to develop a nuclear weapon if it chose to. It denies ever wanting to do so. Those talks stopped in June, and Iran’s hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office in August. Western powers have urged Iran to return to negotiations and said time is running out as its nuclear programme is advancing well beyond the limits set by the deal, which Washington abandoned in 2018.
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Myanmar parallel government calls for revolt against regime

The head of Myanmar’s anti-coup parallel government has declared a “defensive war” against the military regime in a sign of escalating conflict in the Southeast Asian country. Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government (NUG) formed by politicians elected in last November’s general election and activists opposing the Feb. 1 military takeover, on Sept 07 used Facebook to urge citizens “in every corner of the country” to rebel against the military regime led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. He also called on armed ethnic groups to take collective action. Duwa Lashi La also said the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) — the shadow government’s military arm launched in May — will “protect the lives and properties of the people.” Special envoy Erywan Yus of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, who is second foreign minister of Brunei, had earlier called for a four-month cease-fire. But the NUG president called for bureaucrats currently working under the military regime to leave their posts. “All the civil servants under the military council, we warn and forbid you from going to the office from today onward.”
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Malaysia politics reflects growing influence of King Abdullah

The ceremony commemorating Malaysian independence from Britain on Aug. 31 fully revealed the Southeast Asian nation’s political turmoil. King Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah called for an end to political bickering to shield the country from the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysians confirmed with COVID-19 infections have continued to tally as high as 20,000 each day, and the country was bottom of Bloomberg’s COVID Resilience Ranking of 53 economies in August. This rolling crisis has highlighted political dysfunction but also raised the profile of the royal family. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin rocked Malaysian politics on Aug. 16 by resigning after he lost majority support in parliament amid fractiousness in the fragile ruling coalition. Yassin’s departure created the risk of a political vacuum while governing and opposition parties counted numbers to find a successor, but the king quickly moved to stabilize the situation. King Abdullah has become much more noticeable in recent years. Malaysia’s constitution stipulates that the king appoints an elected member of parliament as prime minister if he is deemed to have the backing of the majority of lower house members. That apparently simple calculation can stoke heated controversy, however.
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South Korea becomes first nation without nuclear weapons to develop submarine-launched ballistic missile capability – media

South Korea has successfully test-fired a domestically developed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), becoming the first nation without nuclear weapons to develop the technology, according to media reports on Sept 07. The tests, which were conducted by South Korea’s Agency for Defense Development, saw the nation stage successful SLBM underwater ejection tests from a Dosan Ahn Changho submarine, the country’s Yonhap News Agency claimed, citing military sources. The military drill, which follows a previous successful test conducted from an underwater barge in August, is the first in a serious of exercises that will be held before the SLBM enters mass production within South Korea, ahead of its deployment. The South Korean SLBM is believed to be a variant of the existing Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, which would be able to travel up to 500 kilometers, providing the nation with the ability to strike any target in North Korea from its submarines. SLBMs have a tactical advantage over land-based ballistic missiles, as they are harder to detect in advance and can often be launched quickly, allowing swift surprise attacks to be conducted, bolstering South Korea’s deterrence capability amid ongoing threats from North Korea.
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China calls for restraint as North Korea tests cruise missile able to reach Japan

North Korea’s cruise missile tests over the weekend may have caught the world off guard, and prompted “concern” in neighbouring Japan, but indicate only a limited increase in the country’s military strength, according to analysts. However, Pyongyang’s latest move was certain to disappoint North Korea doves and make the hawks harden their stance, they said, as China called for restraint in the region. The missiles are “a strategic weapon of great significance” and flew 1,500km (930 miles) before hitting their targets and falling into the country’s territorial waters during the tests on Sep 11-12, KCNA said. They travelled for 126 minutes along “oval and pattern-8 flight orbits”, it reported on Sept 13. The missile tests, which appear to be the country’s first since late March, came days after North Korea celebrated the 73rd anniversary of its founding with a military parade in Pyongyang. They also came just a day before senior officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan were due to meet in Tokyo to discuss North Korean issues, including denuclearisation. Also, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Seoul this week for talks with his counterpart Chung Eui-yong, on the final stop of a week-long four-nation regional tour.
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Quad partners India and Australia eye closer security ties

India and Australia vowed on Sept 11 to deepen their security cooperation, especially following the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, as the world marks the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. India and Australia, along with the United States and Japan, are members of the Quad, an informal grouping of the four large democracies in the Indo-Pacific region formed primarily to address the challenge of an increasingly powerful China. Developments in Afghanistan, where the Taliban have seized power following the departure of U.S. and other foreign troops after two decades, were the main topic of talks between Indian and Australian ministers in New Delhi. “We have a geopolitical environment which is in rapid flux and we must, bilaterally and with other like-minded partners, respond adequately to safeguard our national interests as well as ensure a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” Jaishankar said. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said the two countries had decided to expand military engagement and he invited Australia to participate in the production and development of defense equipment in India.
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Suga considers U.S. visit in September to attend ‘Quad’ meeting

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is considering visiting the United States in late September as Washington seeks to hold a quadrilateral summit also involving Australia and India to strengthen ties amid China’s growing clout in the Indo-Pacific region, government sources said Sept 09. Last week, Suga expressed his intention not to seek a second term, saying he will not run in the upcoming presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party but will serve out his term through Sept. 30. The Sept. 29 election effectively decides the next prime minister as the LDP controls the powerful House of Representatives. “Whoever is chosen as the next prime minister will strive for (maintaining) the Japan-U.S. alliance, so it is important to deliver the message that we are focused on the alliance through the prime minister’s U.S. visit,” said a source. Suga is also considering holding separate talks with Biden, according to the source. “No specific schedule has been set,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said at a news conference Sept 09. On whether the prime minister should take a trip abroad although he will soon step down, the top government spokesman said only, “That will be decided by the United States, the host of the Quad summit.”
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Japan says suspected Chinese submarine seen near territorial waters

Japan’s defense ministry said on Sept 12 that a submarine believed to be from China was spotted in waters near its southern islands, as maritime tensions persist in the Pacific. Japan’s navy on Sept 10 morning identified a submerged vessel sailing northwest just outside territorial waters near Amami Oshima island, part of Kagoshima prefecture, the ministry said in a statement. A Chinese destroyer was also spotted in the vicinity. Tokyo has complained of numerous intrusions by Chinese vessels of its territorial waters and near disputed islands in recent years. China has often reacted angrily to U.S. ships sailing through disputed areas of the South China Sea in what Washington calls displays of freedom of navigation. Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, visiting Vietnam during a Southeast Asia trip, said those two countries should refrain from unilateral actions regarding the South China Sea that could complicate and magnify disputes. Sept 12’s announcement said Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force identified the vessels in a contiguous zone, which is outside territorial waters where vessels are required to identify themselves. The submarine continued underwater westward in the ocean near Yokoate Island, the ministry said.
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Israeli prime minister visits Egypt in first official trip for a decade

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Sept 13 for talks on Israeli-Palestinian relations and bilateral issues, Egypt’s presidency said, in the first official trip by an Israeli head of government to Egypt for a decade. Bennett, the head of a far-right party who took office in June, was invited to visit by Sisi last month and the two were due to meet in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the southern tip of Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. The discussions were expected to address “ways and efforts to revive the peace process” between Israel and the Palestinians, Egypt’s presidency said in a statement, as well as bilateral and regional matters. Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians collapsed in 2014 and analysts say there is little prospect of reviving them. Bennett, a nationalist atop a cross-partisan coalition, opposes Palestinian statehood. One focus of Sept 13’s talks will be the situation in the Gaza Strip, where Egypt helped broker a ceasefire after 11 days of conflict in May between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that controls the enclave, diplomatic and security sources said.
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Singapore submits bill to fight ‘foreign interference’

Singapore’s government introduced a bill in parliament on Sept 13 to prevent what it called foreign interference in domestic politics, which proposes empowering authorities to issue take-down orders against “hostile information campaigns”. The Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Bill targets content that “can cause immediate and significant harm in Singapore, such as inciting violence or causing hostility between groups”, the home ministry said. If social media companies failed to comply with requests, Internet service providers may be ordered to block harmful content locally. The bill also proposes blocking downloads of applications used to spread such content. “We have also seen many instances in recent years where social media and communications technologies were used by entities to mount HICs against other countries,” the ministry said, referring to hostile information campaigns. It described those as “covert, coordinated and sophisticated” activities with aims like manipulating public opinion, subverting democratic institutions, polarising society, or influencing election outcomes. The ministry said the law would not apply to Singaporeans expressing political views, unless they were agents of a foreign entity. Neither would it apply to foreign individuals or foreign publications “reporting or commenting on Singapore politics, in an open, transparent and attributable way”, even if critical of Singapore or its government.
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Medical

Rich states should stop hoarding Covid vaccines for boosters not yet backed by science, redirect jabs to Africa – African Union

Wealthy states should send their Covid jabs to under-vaccinated Africa rather than stashing doses away for booster shots which are not yet proven to be necessary, the African Union’s (AU) top health official has said. Speaking at a news conference on Sept 09, John Nkengasong, the director for the continent’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) blasted high-income nations for their eagerness to administer a third shot. “The problem we have with the third doses is we have not seen enough science behind them,” the African CDC chief stated, adding that countries rushing to offer a booster shot will “surely be gambling” without data supporting its use. Nkengasong warned that states offering third shots would make it harder for Africa to reach its goal of inoculating 60-70% of its population. According to statistics from the Africa CDC, only 3% of the continent is fully jabbed, while just over 5% have received one dose. The remarks come after the World Health Organization’s (WHO) head, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called for an “extension of the [booster] moratorium until at least the end of the year, to enable every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population” at a briefing on Sept 08.
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Coronavirus: Southeast Asian countries choose to reopen, balancing virus with economy

Even as they struggle with one of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreaks, nations across Southeast Asia are slowly realising that they can no longer afford the economy-crippling restrictions needed to squash it. On the factory floors of Vietnam and Malaysia, in the barbershops of Manila or office towers of Singapore, regulators are pushing forward with plans to reopen, seeking to balance containing the virus with keeping people and money moving. That is leading to a range of experiments including military-delivered food, sequestered workers, micro-lockdowns and vaccinated-only access to restaurants and offices. In contrast to Europe and the US, which have already moved down the reopening path, the region’s low vaccination rates leave it among the world’s most vulnerable to the Delta variant. But with state finances stretched by previous rounds of stimulus and dwindling monetary policy firepower, lockdowns are becoming less tenable by the day. “It’s a tricky balance between lives and livelihoods,” said Krystal Tan, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group economist, noting that even Singapore has struggled with infection spikes despite having a world-leading vaccination rate.
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