Economic

US-China relations: foreign firms slow expansion plans with trade tensions ‘very likely’ to expand

Trade tensions between China and the United States are having an increasingly negative impact on businesses in southern China compared with the past two years, according to a new survey. Some 90 per cent of firms that took part in the survey said the US-China trade dispute is “very likely” or “quite likely” to expand this year, with 64 per cent expecting the impact on business to last for more than two years, said the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in South China. US trade war tariffs had a negative impact on nearly 60 per cent of companies in southern China last year, compared to 55 per cent in 2021 and 53 per cent in 2020, according to the special report on the state of business released on Feb 27, which surveyed 210 firms in December before China fully relaxed its zero-Covid policy. Negative impacts brought by Chinese tariffs also grew in 2022, increasing around 5 per cent. But compared with US tariffs, the impact was relatively mild, the report said. The respondents comprise 40 per cent wholly foreign-owned companies, 18 per cent joint ventures and 38 per cent Chinese companies. In terms of origin, 28 per cent of the companies taking part came from the US, 25 per cent from Europe, Canada, Hong Kong or Macau and Southeast Asia and 43 per cent from mainland China. Click here to read…

China’s top leadership stresses tech self-reliance to tackle foreign technological blockade, urging to bolster basic research

China’s top leadership has stressed, twice over the past month or so, making efforts to achieve self-reliance and strength in science and technology, reflecting the great importance that’s attached to the country’s science and technology development amid increasingly fierce global competition as well as the US’ relentless push for a so-called technology decoupling. On Feb 21, the Political Bureau of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a study session on effectively strengthening basic research and consolidating the foundation of self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Feb 22. While chairing the study session, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, urged the strengthening of basic research so as to consolidate self-reliance and strength in science and technology, according to Xinhua. Xi also noted that strengthening basic research is an urgent requirement to achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and it is the only way to build a world leader in science and technology. This comes less than one month after the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee held, on January 31, a group study session on accelerating the establishment of a new pattern of development. Click here to read…

China aims to launch nearly 13,000 satellites to ‘suppress’ Elon Musk’s Starlink, researchers say

Researchers say China plans to build a huge satellite network in near-Earth orbit to provide internet services to users around the world – and to stifle Elon Musk’s Starlink. The project has the code name “GW”, according to a team led by associate professor Xu Can with the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Space Engineering University in Beijing. But what these letters stand for is unclear. The GW constellation will include 12,992 satellites owned by the newly established China Satellite Network Group Co, Xu and his colleagues said in a paper about anti-Starlink measures published in the Chinese journal Command Control and Simulation on February 15. The launch schedule for these satellites remains unknown, but the number would rival the scale of SpaceX’s planned network of more than 12,000 satellites by 2027. Xu’s team said the GW satellite constellation was likely to be deployed quickly, “before the completion of Starlink”. This would “ensure that our country has a place in low orbit and prevent the Starlink constellation from excessively pre-empting low-orbit resources”, they wrote. The Chinese satellites could also be placed in “orbits where the Starlink constellation has not yet reached”, the researchers said, adding that they would “gain opportunities and advantages at other orbital altitudes, and even suppress Starlink”. Click here to read…

Tech war: Taiwan says US-led Chip 4 alliance held first senior officials meeting

The US-led “Fab 4” semiconductor alliance of Taiwan, the United States, Japan and South Korea held its first video meeting of senior officials earlier this month focused on supply chain resilience, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Feb 25. The United States last September convened the first meeting of the working group, colloquially called “Fab 4” or “Chip 4”, to discuss how to strengthen the semiconductor supply chain, after a global chip crunch caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The semiconductor shortage, which forced some carmakers to halt production, thrust chip powerhouse Taiwan into the spotlight and has made supply chain management a bigger priority for governments around the world. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said the “US-East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain Resilience Working Group”, or “Fab 4”, had after many months of coordination held the first video meeting of senior officials from its working group on February 16. “The focus of the discussions of the participating quartet at the meeting was mainly on how to maintain the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain and explore the possible future cooperation directions of all parties,” the ministry said in a statement. Click here to read…

China pushes for resurrection of EU investment deal

China has stepped up lobbying of European Union decision-makers to revive a planned investment deal in its latest effort to improve ties with the Brussels-based bloc. Beijing has proposed it and the EU simultaneously scrap sanctions that derailed the proposed Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in 2021, but analysts say big hurdles remain to put the accord back on track. China’s overtures come as it seeks to change tone from an era of aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy and looks to build international alliances in the face of growing tensions with the U.S. Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the EU since December, has proposed resurrecting the European investment deal, which was agreed politically in late 2020 but never received the necessary approval from the European Parliament. Ratification stalled after Beijing sanctioned EU officials in response to European bloc sanctions over alleged widespread human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. Fu said this month that the world economy was “not going through a very good time” and acknowledged that “some European business people have some complaints about the access to [the] Chinese market.” “We are actually listening to initiatives from the EU side; our proposal is that we leave the sanctions simultaneously,” he said during a briefing at the European Policy Center on Feb. 8, according to a transcript. Click here to read…

Toxic smog: Iran criticised for winter ‘air pollution catastrophe’

In Iran this winter, hospital emergency rooms have been full, schools regularly closed and many people unable to work or even leave their homes due to toxic smog, which a leading United Nations expert is calling an “air pollution catastrophe”. Dirty air is a chronic problem in Iran. Many of its cities including Tehran regularly rank among the world’s most polluted, due to emissions from millions of older vehicles on the roads, and from refineries, power plants and factories. About 40,000 people nationwide die each year due to health problems linked to air pollution, from respiratory infections and lung cancer to heart attacks, according to the Air Pollution Research Center at the Tehran University of Medical Sciences. However, environmental experts say the situation is deteriorating as the country burns ever-larger quantities of mazut – a low-quality and highly-polluting fuel – to sustain its power plants during a natural gas shortage. Burning mazut emits toxic gases such as sulphur dioxide, and can contribute to severe illness and premature death, according to health experts. “Iran is in the middle of an air pollution catastrophe with astronomically high levels of particulate matter (PM) in the air,” said David Boyd, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights and the environment. Click here to read…

China’s new coal plant approvals surge in 2022, highest since 2015–research

China approved the construction of another 106 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity last year, four times higher than a year earlier and the highest since 2015, driven by energy security considerations, research showed on Feb 27. Over the year, 50 GW of coal power capacity went into construction across the country, up by more than half compared to the previous year, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) said. “The speed at which projects progressed through permitting to construction in 2022 was extraordinary, with many projects sprouting up, gaining permits, obtaining financing and breaking ground apparently in a matter of months,” said GEM analyst Flora Champenois. The amount of new capacity connected to the grid had slowed in recent years after a decline in new approvals over the 2017-2020 period, but it is set to rebound over the next few years, driven by concerns about power shortages. Many of the newly approved projects are identified as “supporting” baseload capacity designed to ensure the stability of the power grid and minimize blackout risks, the CREA-GEM report said. However, many are being built in regions which already have a clear capacity surplus, and power supply problems would be better addressed by improving grid reliability and efficiency, the authors said. Click here to read…

Russia’s economy contracted 2.1% in 2022, less than expected

Russia’s economy contracted 2.1% last year, the federal statistics service said on Feb 20, compared with a 5.6% year-on-year rise in 2021, hurt by the fallout from Moscow’s decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last February. Rosstat’s first gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for 2022 was a marked improvement on forecasts made soon after the conflict began. The economy ministry at one point predicted that Russia’s economy would shrink more than 12% last year, exceeding the falls in output seen after the Soviet Union collapsed and during the 1998 financial crisis. Before the conflict in Ukraine began, the Russian government had expected GDP growth of 3% in 2022. Manufacturing industries and wholesale and retail trade were among the sectors that declined in 2022, while agriculture, hospitality, construction and mining all registered growth. Public administration and “military security” gained 4.1% in 2022, the statistics agency said, adding to a 3.3% rise in 2021. President Vladimir Putin in January paid tribute to the defense sector for supporting Russia’s economy. Increased military spending is smoothing out a drop in Russia’s industrial production, analysts say. Net exports increased to 12.8% from 9.3%, “due to the prices of exported fuel and energy products being significantly above imports.” Click here to read…

U.S. hits Russia with sanctions, tariffs on Ukraine war anniversary

The United States marked the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 by announcing new sanctions against Russia and its allies, new export controls and tariffs aimed at undermining Moscow’s ability to wage war. Washington also said it would provide $2 billion in more weaponry for Kyiv as it prepares for a spring offensive. The aid did not include F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has requested. President Joe Biden was to consult leaders of the G7 allies and Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelenskyy at 9 a.m. to discuss what more aid can be provided to the Ukrainians. The United States joined with G7 allies with plans to impose sanctions that will target 200 individuals and entities and a dozen Russian financial institutions. The sanctions are aimed at targets in Russia and “third-country actors” across Europe, Asia and the Middle East that are supporting Russia’s war effort, the White House said in a fact sheet. “We will sanction additional actors tied to Russia’s defense and technology industry, including those responsible for backfilling Russian stocks of sanctioned items or enabling Russian sanctions evasion,” it said. Biden was to sign proclamations to raise tariffs on Russian products imported to the United States. They will result in increased tariffs on more than 100 Russian metals, minerals and chemical products worth about $2.8 billion to Russia. Click here to read…

Macron outlines new Africa strategy

Emmanuel Macron said on Feb 27 that France’s military presence in Africa will see a “noticeable reduction” as Paris attempts to counter rising anti-French sentiment fomenting in some of its former African colonies on the continent. “The change will happen in the coming months with a noticeable reduction of our numbers and a great presence in these bases of our African partners,” Macron said at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Monday ahead of his four-nation African visit later this week. The French leader is due to visit Gabon, Angola, Congo-Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The “reorganization,” as Macron put it, “does not intend to be a withdrawal” and France will retain a presence on the continent, he said, “but with a reduced footprint.” His visit comes a little more than a week after Burkina Faso ejected French troops from the country following a military coup. Mali did the same last year after its military junta reportedly began working with Russian military contractors. This ended a near decade-long collaboration between French forces and the African country against Islamist insurgents in the region, with Paris ultimately being criticized for a lack of success in the struggle against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates, particularly in the Sahel region. Click here to read…

Singapore links digital payments with India after Thailand

Singapore on Feb 21 launched a new digital payments connection with India, following similar plans made previously with Thailand and Malaysia as the Asian finance hub strives to become a regional nexus for transactions worth billions of dollars. The initiative, backed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Reserve Bank of India, links Singapore’s PayNow digital payments infrastructure with India’s Unified Payments Interface. This is set up to allow real-time virtual transfers of money across borders in seconds, and has been billed as a means to reduce the cost and inefficiencies of remittances between both countries. “Our two central banks have been working on this in earnest,” Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Feb 21, observing the launch of the payments initiative with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi via a video link. “We are taking retail payments connectivity another step forward,” he added. “The PayNow-UPI linkage will offer cheaper, faster, and safer cross-border retail payments and remittances, for businesses and individuals alike, directly between bank accounts.” Singapore has a sizable presence of Indian workers who use remittance agents to transfer money to their families back home but these transactions typically take a few days. Click here to read…

COVID worsens North Korea’s food shortage, but no famine yet

There’s little doubt that North Korea’s chronic food shortages worsened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and speculation about the country’s food insecurity has flared as its top leaders prepare to discuss the “very important and urgent task” of formulating a correct agricultural policy. Unconfirmed reports say an unspecified number of North Koreans have been dying of hunger. But experts say there is no sign of mass deaths or famine. They say the upcoming ruling Workers’ Party meeting is likely intended to shore up support for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he pushes ahead with his nuclear weapons program in defiance of intense U.S.-led pressure and sanctions. “Kim Jong Un can’t advance his nuclear program stably if he fails to resolve the food problem fundamentally because public support would be shaken,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “The meeting is being convened to solidify internal unity while pulling together ideas to address the food shortage.” An enlarged plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party is slated for late February. Its specific agenda is unknown, but the party’s powerful Politburo earlier said that an “a turning point is needed to dynamically promote radical change in agricultural development.” Click here to read…

Drought in Horn of Africa worse than in 2011 famine

Drought trends in the Horn of Africa are now worse than they were during the 2011 famine in which hundreds of thousands of people died. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center said on Feb 22 that below-normal rainfall is expected during the rainy season over the next three months. “In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the 6th failed consecutive rainfall season,” it said. Drier than normal conditions have also increased in parts of Burundi, eastern Tanzania, Rwanda and western South Sudan, the centre added. While famine thresholds have not been reached, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Feb 22 that 8.3 million people – more than half Somalia’s population – will need humanitarian assistance this year. Workneh Gebeyehu, the head of IGAD, urged governments and partners to act “before it’s too late”. The drought, the longest on record in Somalia, has lasted almost three years and tens of thousands of people have died. Last month, the UN resident coordinator for Somalia warned excess deaths in the country will “almost certainly” surpass those of the famine declared in the country in 2011, when more than 260,000 people died of starvation. The southern region of Somalia is scattered with dead livestock. Click here to read…

Oman joins Saudi in opening its airspace for Israeli carriers

Israeli airlines can now fly over Oman after the Gulf nation opened its airspace for all carriers that meet the civil aviation authority’s requirements. Israel’s foreign minister Eli Cohen on Feb 23 thanked Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said for the decision which will shorten flight times to Asia. “It’s an historic and significant decision for the Israeli economy and the Israeli traveller,” Cohen said. Last year Saudi Arabia allowed Israeli airlines to use its airspace but because Omani airspace was closed, Israeli carriers could not use the route to fly to Asia. The Saudi Arabian decision came after United States President Joe Biden visited the region last year. Flight from Israel to Asian destinations such as Thailand and India would be shortened by at least two hours. Israel and Oman have no diplomatic relations, but the Gulf state seemed to have been less reluctant in publicising its relations with Israel. In 2018, the late Sultan Qaboos received Netanyahu in Muscat. Oman was one of the first countries to congratulate the UAE and Bahrain, who established diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020. Click here to read…

Iraq To Drop Dollar In Trade With China

The Iraqi central bank announced Feb 23 that, for the first time, it plans to allow trade from China to be settled directly in yuan instead of the US dollar to improve access to foreign currency. “It is the first time imports would be financed from China in yuan, as Iraqi imports from China have been financed in (US) dollars only,” the government’s economic adviser, Mudhir Salih, told Reuters. According to a statement released by the Iraqi central bank, carrying out transactions in the Chinese currency would boost the balances of Iraqi banks with accounts with Chinese banks. However, this option depends on the size of the central bank’s yuan reserves. A second option to boost local banks’ yuan balances would involve converting US dollars held in the central bank’s accounts with JP Morgan and the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) to yuan before paying the final beneficiary in China. The Iraqi central bank has been on a mad dash to compensate for a dollar shortage in local markets. This crisis prompted the cabinet to approve a currency revaluation earlier this month. Last year, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began enforcing stricter controls on international transactions by Iraqi commercial banks, forcing them to comply with specific SWIFT global transfer system criteria to access their foreign reserves. Click here to read…

Strategic

US joins EU in rejecting Beijing’s peace proposal, sanctions more Chinese firms

The US-China confrontation over Russia’s war on Ukraine ratcheted up on several fronts on Feb 24, the one-year anniversary of the invasion’s start, as Washington and its allies largely rejected a peace plan by Beijing and the US announced new sanctions on Chinese companies it charged were helping to fuel the conflict. The debate over China’s peace proposal also carried over to a special meeting of the United Nations Security Council. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the 12-point peace proposal China released earlier on Feb 24, telling CNN that Beijing should have ended it after the first point, which calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”. Among its other elements, the plan calls for a ceasefire, which would freeze Russian troops in place on Ukrainian territory, and for an immediate end to all sanctions not endorsed by the UN Security Council, where Russia holds veto power. Sullivan’s rebuff was in line with that of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who implied that Beijing’s proposal had not changed their view that China had taken Russia’s side. Click here to read…

Putin reveals conditions for widening Ukraine operation

If the West decides to supply Ukraine with longer-range advanced weapons, Russia will have to push the threat further away from its borders, President Vladimir Putin has warned in his annual address to parliament. “The West is using Ukraine both as a battering ram against Russia and as a training ground,” he added on Feb 21, nearly a year after Moscow launched its military operation in the neighboring state. “One thing must be clear to everyone,” Putin said. “The longer the range of the Western systems that arrive in Ukraine, the further we will be forced to push the threat away from our borders. It’s obvious.” Russia sent troops in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, citing the need to protect the people of Donbass and Kiev’s failure to implement the 2014-15 Minsk accords. Many Western countries have since supplied Ukraine with heavy weapons, including US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers. On Feb 19, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his country would be the first “to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.” US President Joe Biden, who traveled to Kiev on Feb 20, also promised to send more weapons, including additional HIMARS rockets. Moscow has repeatedly accused Kiev of using foreign arms to indiscriminately shell cities and kill civilians. Click here to read…

US reiterates claim that China is considering sending Russia military help for Ukraine war

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Feb 23 reiterated his contention that Beijing is considering providing military support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, a claim the Chinese government has refuted. While the American intelligence community has not detected “systematic” evasion by China of sanctions against Russia, “we also have picked up information over the last couple of months that strongly indicates that China is now considering doing that”, Blinken said in an online discussion with The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg. Concern that China might provide arms or other materiel for use against Ukraine was one of the main messages Blinken delivered to Beijing’s top-ranking diplomat Wang Yi at last week’s Munich Security Conference in Germany. “I … directly told [Wang] this concern, what we were seeing, and reminded him of the many conversations between President [Joe] Biden and President Xi [Jinping], and reminded him that this would be a serious problem in the relationship,” America’s top envoy recalled. “I’m hopeful but in a very clear-minded way that China will get that message because it’s not only coming from us,” Blinken added. “It’s coming from many other countries who do not want to see China aiding and abetting in a material way Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Click here to read…

China to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over next 5 years

China plans to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over the next five years in a move that is expected to boost Beijing’s global security influence. The announcement, which appeared in a paper on Beijing’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) published on Feb 21, comes as China’s overseas security footprint has worried its rivals. The initiative, seen as an alternative to the Western-led security order, was first proposed by President Xi Jinping during the Boao Forum for Asia annual conference last April. According to the GSI paper, Beijing plans to create more international platforms for exchange and cooperation to address security challenges in areas such as counterterrorism, cybersecurity, biosecurity and emerging technologies, with a view to improving governance capacity in non-traditional security. China would also encourage more exchanges and cooperation among university-level military and police academies, the paper said. It also said China was willing to provide 5,000 training opportunities for professionals from other developing countries over the next five years to help them address global security issues. Li Wei, an anti-terrorism expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said the plan for training and exchanges in non-traditional security fields, especially anti-terrorism, showed Beijing felt a responsibility to address global security challenges. Click here to read…

NATO members float Ukraine negotiations plan – WSJ

NATO’s three most powerful European members collectively back a plan aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb 24. The newspaper claimed that France and Germany support the British initiative and have already advised President Vladimir Zelensky to talk, though he has refused. Under the proposals, Kiev would receive even more Western weapons and be provided with security guarantees just short of NATO membership, the outlet explained, citing anonymous officials. Though French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly called for “a military offensive which pushes back the Russian front in order to open the way for a return to negotiations,” he has privately advised Zelensky to make “difficult decisions,” according to officials who spoke to the Journal. Over dinner at the Elysee Palace earlier this month, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Zelensky he needed to start considering peace talks, according to people familiar with the conversation. London, Paris and Berlin would not comment on the record. “We keep repeating that Russia mustn’t win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official told the Journal. “And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea.” Click here to read…

French President Emmanuel Macron to visit China in April on mission to help end Ukraine war

French President Emmanuel Macron plans to visit China in early April in hopes of encouraging Beijing to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine. Macron said in Paris on Feb 25 that peace was only possible if “the Russian aggression was halted, troops withdrawn and [the] territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and its people was respected”. “The fact that China is engaging in peace efforts is a good thing,” he said. “China must help us put pressure on Russia so that it never uses chemical or nuclear weapons, [an effort] which China has already made, and that it stops its aggression as a precondition for talks.” During the trip, Macron will urge China to join European forces to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to France’s consul general in Hong Kong, Christile Drulhe. “Our president will certainly raise [the issue of] Ukraine when he goes to China,” she said in an academic forum at the University of Hong Kong on Feb 23. Song Luzheng, an international affairs researcher at Fudan University, said Macron could not wait until the second half of this year to make the trip. “For France, the most important thing now is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Europe can’t bear the long-term stand-off and France can’t take it either,” Song said. Click here to read…

Taiwan displays growing clout with top diplomat’s U.S. visit

Taiwan has scored a major diplomatic breakthrough with its foreign minister’s first publicized visit to the U.S. capital area since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and National Security Council chief Wellington Koo, along with Hsiao Bi-khim, top envoy to the U.S., and other senior officials arrived Feb 21, meeting with U.S. officials in a visit seen as a push back against China’s efforts to isolate Taiwan. The Taiwanese delegation held closed-door talks with Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, and Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia, according to Taiwanese state media. The Financial Times described the meeting as part of an annual “special diplomatic dialogue” between senior officials from the two sides. This was the first time — at least publicly — a Taiwanese foreign minister visited the U.S. capital since 1979, when President Jimmy Carter broke ties with the Kuomintang regime in Taiwan. In the following decades, Taiwan democratized and removed the Kuomintang (KMT), now the main opposition party, from power. The U.S. trip also came shortly after KMT’s controversial tour in China this month, when party Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia met Chinese government officials in the mainland. Click here to read…

Taiwan girds for close presidential race amid China pressure

With Taiwan’s presidential election less than a year away, the battle lines between the two main parties are being drawn, with an increasingly belligerent China very much in evidence. Presidential and legislative elections for Taiwan are due to take place in January 2024. President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has been in power since 2016, and will finish her second term next year. She is constitutionally barred from a third term. If Tsai’s successor as party president wins, existing policies will be largely maintained. However, if the Kuomintang, the main opposition party, wins there could be a geopolitical shift much closer to Beijing. The issues at stake in the next 11 months include Taiwan’s long-term security and the risk of military conflict with Beijing. The election year will help determine whether Tsai’s “prudent but firm policy” toward China — and strengthening of relations with the world, especially the U.S. and Japan — will continue, said Gerrit van der Wees, a former Dutch diplomat who teaches Taiwanese history at George Mason University in Washington. Under the spotlight is Tsai’s approach of “insisting on Taiwan’s sovereignty and existence as a free democracy, but avoiding moves that would substantially change the status quo,” he said. Click here to read…

Putin says Xi to visit Russia, ties reaching ‘new frontiers’

President Vladimir Putin said on Feb 22 that China’s Xi Jinping would visit Russia, saying relations had reached “new frontiers” amid U.S. concerns Beijing could provide material support to the invasion of Ukraine. Chinese weapons supplies to Russia would threaten a potential escalation of the war into a confrontation between Russia and China on the one side and Ukraine and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance on the other. Putin welcomed China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, to the Kremlin, telling him bilateral trade was better than expected and could soon reach $200 billion a year, up from $185 billion in 2022. “We await a visit of the President of the People’s Republic of China to Russia, we have agreed on this,” Putin told Wang. “Everything is progressing, developing. We are reaching new frontiers,” Putin said. Tass news agency cited Yi — who held a separate meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — as saying China would “firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis.” The Russian foreign ministry said it welcomed China taking a more active role in efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and said it valued China’s “balanced approach.” But in a separate statement, the ministry said Lavrov and Yi had not discussed a reported Chinese peace plan. Click here to read…

China, Japan square off over arms and balloons at first security talks in four years

China said it was troubled by Japan’s military buildup and Tokyo took aim at Beijing’s military ties to Russia and its suspected use of spy balloons during the Asian powers’ first formal security talks in four years on Feb 22. The talks, aimed at easing tensions between the world’s second- and third-largest economies, come as Tokyo worries that Beijing will resort to force to take control of Taiwan in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, sparking a conflict that could embroil Japan and disrupt global trade. Japan in December said it would double defense spending over the next five years to 2% of gross domestic product–a total of $320 billion–to deter China from resorting to military action. Beijing, which increased defense spending by 7.1% last year, spends more than four times as much as Japan on its forces. Tokyo plans to acquire longer range missiles that could strike mainland China and to stock up on other munitions it would need to sustain a conflict alongside the large U.S. force it hosts. “The international security situation has undergone vast changes and we are seeing the return of unilateralism, protectionism, and a Cold War mentality,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said at the start of the meeting in Tokyo with Japanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shigeo Yamada. Click here to read…

US Navy laments China’s shipbuilding supremacy

The US is seemingly at a loss to match China’s ascendant naval shipbuilding capacity as US Navy leaders engage in a blame game rather than addressing past failures and mismanagement. CNN reported this month that US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said the US cannot match China in terms of fleet numbers, an admission that could have significant implications for the Pacific region’s power balance. At the National Press Club in Washington, DC, Del Toro said that China now has a larger fleet and is deploying it globally, making it imperative for the US to upgrade its fleet in response. According to the Pentagon’s November 2022 China Military Power report, China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) is the world’s largest navy with 340 ships as of 2022. The US Navy, in comparison, had just 280 ships. Del Toro said that China has 13 naval shipyards, with one of these facilities having more capacity than all seven US naval shipyards combined. He also highlighted problems in finding skilled labor for US naval shipbuilding programs. A December 2022 US Congressional Research Service report states that budget cuts and other issues have resulted in layoffs of shipyard workers whose specialized skills cannot easily and readily be replaced. Click here to read…

Egypt foreign minister visits Syria for first time since 2011

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has visited Damascus in what is the first trip by a top Egyptian envoy to Syria since its civil war began in 2011 and another sign of possible warming ties between President Bashar al-Assad and Arab states. According to the Syrian state news agency (SANA), Shoukry was received at Damascus airport by his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad on Feb 27. Al-Assad has benefitted from an outpouring of Arab support for Syria since February 6 earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people there and in neighbouring Turkey. Earlier this month, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi spoke with al-Assad by phone for the first time on February 7. On Feb 26, a delegation of Arab parliamentary leaders, including Egypt parliament’s Speaker Hanafy al-Gebali, met al-Assad in Damascus. Earlier, following the earthquake, the foreign minister of Jordan, which once backed the Syrian opposition, also visited Damascus for the first time since the civil war began. Syria was largely isolated from the rest of the Arab world following al-Assad’s deadly crackdown against protests that erupted against his rule in 2011. The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership the same year, and many Arab countries pulled their envoys out of Damascus. The United Arab Emirates, which began normalising ties with al-Assad several years ago, has poured aid into Syria since the earthquake. Saudi Arabia also sent planes carrying aid to Syria, a first in more than a decade. Click here to read…

UN body seeks new global consensus on safeguarding human rights

United Nations (UN) human rights chief Volker Turk on Feb 27 deplored the weaponization of human rights in the context of geopolitical shifts. Turk, who took office as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights last October, was speaking at the opening of the 52nd regular session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. He called for a “new world-wide consensus on human rights”, arguing that it is a question of survival that nations and communities should arrive at a common understanding. “Our institutions — which exist to advance all civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights, on an equal footing, as well as the right to development and the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment — are in a unique position to rebuild this shared respect for each other’s dignity,” he said. He urged all the UN member states to overcome their differences through solidarity and genuine dialogue, working across geopolitical divides with a clear vision to advance the needs of every country and the rights of all. “We can rise above the fray, and use human rights, not as a weapon in the context of geopolitical shifts — not as a nice-to-have for sunny days in the future — but as what it is and was always meant to be: a solution to help us get out of the harms that are destroying our world,” he said. Click here to read…

Rishi Sunak strikes post-Brexit Northern Ireland deal with EU

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland on Feb 27, saying it would pave the way for a new chapter in London’s relationship with the bloc. Standing alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a news conference in Windsor, Sunak said the two sides had agreed to remove “any sense of a border” between Britain and its province – a situation that had angered politicians on both sides. He immediately won plaudits from business groups who welcomed the easing of trade rules, and an EU promise that it would be willing to allow British scientists to join its vast research program if Sunak’s party accepts the deal. The agreement marks a high-risk strategy for Sunak just four months after he took office. He is looking to secure improved relations with Brussels ― and the United States ― without angering the wing of his party most wedded to Brexit. The deal seeks to resolve the tensions caused by the Northern Ireland protocol, a complex agreement which set the trading rules for the British-ruled region that London agreed before it left the EU but now says are unworkable. Click here to read…

Nigeria Election Criticized by International Observers, Opposition Parties

Early results from Nigeria’s presidential election showed a sizable lead for the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu on Feb 27, as international observers said serious logistical problems, violence and the slow publishing of polling-station results had marred the vote in Africa’s largest economy and most-populous nation. By early Feb 27 evening, results sheets from just over one-third of Nigeria’s 176,846 polling stations had been loaded onto the website of the country’s electoral commission following Feb 25’s vote. The commission, which had previously vaunted the immediate publication of those results as a key step toward improving election transparency, said the delays were due to technical glitches and didn’t affect the integrity of the vote. Parallel counts by civil-society organizations based on results uploaded so far showed Mr. Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress with a substantial lead over Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Nigeria’s other established party. Peter Obi of the smaller Labour Party, who had gained a following among young Nigerians frustrated with the country’s perpetual crises and who had been a front-runner in many pre-election polls, was in third place. Nigeria’s current president, Muhammadu Buhari, couldn’t run again after serving two terms. Click here to read…

Health

WHO raises alarm over bird flu

The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning amid a recent uptick in cases of avian flu (H5N1) in Cambodia. Authorities in the Southeast Asian country recently reported that two individuals had contracted the disease, with one eventually succumbing to it. Speaking to reporters during a virtual briefing on Feb 24, Dr Sylvie Briand, the WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, described the latest trends in the spread of the virus as “worrying.” She also said the organization was reviewing its global risk assessment. “WHO takes the risk from this virus seriously and urges heightened vigilance from all countries,” the official noted. According to Briand, apart from a growing number of cases in birds, a similar situation is being witnessed in mammals, including humans. On Feb 23, Cambodian authorities reported that an 11-year-old girl had died of bird flu, with her father also testing positive. Their contacts are currently being checked. Commenting on the case, Briand pointed out that it is not yet clear whether there had actually been any human-to-human transmission or if the two individuals had contracted the virus simply due to their “exposure to the same environmental conditions,” that is, close contact with infected birds or other animals. Click here to read…

Turkey earthquake: more than 350,000 pregnant women in dire need of help as rescue work winds down

On Feb 20, rescue work wound down after the February 6 earthquakes killed more than 46,000 people in southern Turkey and northwest Syria. Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) said that nearly 13,000 excavators, cranes, trucks and other industrial vehicles had been sent to the quake zone. The death toll in Turkey had risen to 41,156, AFAD said, and it was expected to climb, with some 385,000 flats in the country known to have been destroyed or seriously damaged and many people still missing. Among the survivors of the February 6 earthquakes in Turkey and Syria are about 356,000 pregnant women who urgently need access to reproductive health services, the UN sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA) said at the weekend. The women include 226,000 in Turkey and 130,000 in Syria, about 38,800 of whom will deliver in the next month. It said many of the women are sheltering in camps or are living exposed to freezing temperatures and struggling to get food or clean water. Medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) said a convoy of 14 of its trucks had entered northwestern Syria on Feb 19 to assist in earthquake rescue operations, as concerns grow over lack of access to the war-ravaged area. Click here to read…

Economic

China’s U.S. Treasury holdings hit 12-year low on rate hikes, tensions

China’s U.S. government bond holdings hit the lowest in over 12 years at the end of December, while its gold trove grew against a backdrop of American interest rate hikes and bilateral tensions. Chinese holdings of Treasury securities fell for the fifth straight month in December to $867 billion, data published Feb 15 by the U.S. Treasury Department shows. The figure fell $173.2 billion, or 17%, in 2022 — the biggest drop since 2016. China was not the only nation to sell down its Treasury holdings — all foreign holdings of Treasury securities fell 6% in 2022 — but its move was large. The decline came as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a rapid pace to curb inflation. The benchmark 10-year yield had risen to nearly 4% at the end of December from around 1.5% a year earlier, and Chinese investors likely trimmed their holdings to avoid losses from a decrease in bond prices. Geopolitical factors also played a role, market watchers said. “Since the Russian invasion [of Ukraine], a move away from Treasuries … would be an understandable reaction to the political developments,” said a strategist at a U.S. asset manager, who sees the Chinese motivation as “wanting to maintain their independence and not be at risk.” Click here to read…

Wheat prices surge on Ukraine harvest concerns – media

Wheat prices have soared to two-month highs this week amid fears that Russia’s military operation may jeopardize this year’s planting and harvesting season in Ukraine, several media outlets have reported, citing traders. March futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closed at over $8.0075 a bushel on Monday, the highest since November 23. Quotes were slightly down on Feb 14 but are still up for the year. Wheat prices initially jumped on Feb 10, with analysts attributing the surge to Russia’s latest missile strikes in Ukraine. Traders warn that infrastructure damage from the missiles or a potential worsening of the conflict would jeopardize Black Sea shipments, which are already a third below the previous season. “Wheat has been the leader linked to increased tension in Ukraine, which could slow the Ukrainian exports and the planting for the 2023 crop and it could also lead to increased sanctions against Russia,” Mark Polowy, a senior account executive at Archer Financial Services, told Reuters. Concerns about the supply of wheat to the global market emerged right after the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine just under a year ago. The two countries together are responsible for over a quarter of the global supply of grains. Click here to read…

US dollar’s Bull Run set to end as China, Europe and Japan stabilise

The US dollar had a historic bull run in 2022. As the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly in a bid to combat inflation, the dollar strengthened by around 10 per cent from the start of the year to a high in October 2022 against a broad range of currencies. Other major central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) also turned hawkish amid a global surge in inflation, but the Fed remained at the vanguard of the central bank raising cycle. In addition, the US dollar surge last year was supported by the relative resilience of the US economy in the face of the energy crisis in Europe and a lingering drag from the Covid-19 pandemic in Asia. However, the US dollar has trended weaker after reaching its peak in October 2022. The nominal broad dollar index fell around 6 per cent between October 2022 and January 2023. Many of last year’s drivers of US dollar strength appear to be reversing. The recent improvement in the global growth outlook has been mainly led by major economies outside the United States. The rapid reopening of China is likely to lead to a strong economic recovery this year after Covid-19 infections appeared to peak in late December. Click here to read…

China provinces top list of world’s most climate-vulnerable regions–data

China is home to 16 of the 20 global regions most vulnerable to climate change, according to data published on Feb 20, with some of the world’s most important manufacturing hubs at risk from rising water levels and extreme weather.Climate risk specialists XDI assessed more than 2,600 regions worldwide, using climate models together with weather and environmental data to assess the economic damage that temperature rises could wreak by 2050. The study is based on a 3-degree Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) increase in temperatures by the end of the century, under a scenario drawn up by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The data showed that some of the engine rooms of the global economy face catastrophic hazards such as rising sea levels, river flooding and wildfires, which could also depress property prices and deter investment, XDI said. “We’re already feeling the significant impacts of weather events around the world, and they will only increase,” XDI Chief Executive Rohan Hamden told reporters. “Finally, we just want to make sure that every investment decision is made in a climate-resilient way.” The industrialized Chinese coastal province of Jiangsu, which accounts for a tenth of China’s GDP, was ranked the world’s most vulnerable territory, followed by neighbouring Shandong and the major steel production base of Hebei. The flood-prone central province of Henan was fourth. Click here to read…

China’s chip sector enters a ‘dark forest’ era

China should reform its funding, training and appraisal systems to push forward semiconductor-related scientific research, according to two top scientists. In a widely circulated article, a Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) academician and chip researcher say China’s chip sector has entered a “dark forest” without access to advanced US chip-making software and coming restrictions on deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools made by Japan and the Netherlands. The authors note China has attached great importance to fundamental scientific research in recent years but still faces several challenges. Luo Junwei, a researcher at the CAS Institute of Semiconductors, and Li Shushen, a CAS vice president, wrote in an article published on February 17 that deep reform is needed to improve China’s chip research. “Over the years, all the fundamental research achievements in the global semiconductor and micro-electronics sector have been included in the process design kit (PDK) of the EDA,” they write, referring to the electronic design automation market segment. “As Chinese chip makers could buy and use the PDK in the past, our decision-makers, government officials and industry players tended to think that China could develop its chip sector without fundamental research.” “But since the US turned off the ‘lighthouse,’ we have now entered a dark forest,” they wrote, referring to US blocks on selling advanced chip-making equipment to China. Click here to read…

China’s Newest Weapon to Nab Western Technology—Its Courts

The growing conflict between China and the U.S. extends from computer-chip factories to a suspected spy balloon over American skies. Running through it all is a struggle for technological superiority. China has striven for years to develop cutting-edge technologies, in part through heavy spending on research. Now, according to Western officials and executives, it also has mobilized its legal system to pry technology from other nations. Officials in the U.S. and European Union accuse China of using its courts and patent panels to undermine foreign intellectual-property rights and help Chinese businesses. They say China is focusing such efforts on industries it deems important, including technology, pharmaceuticals and rare-earth minerals. A U.S. manufacturer of X-ray equipment had a decade-old patent invalidated by a Chinese legal panel. A Spanish mobile-antenna designer lost a similar fight in a Shanghai court. Another Chinese court ruled that a Japanese conglomerate broke antitrust law by refusing to license its technology to a Chinese rival. At China’s Communist Party congress in October, when Xi Jinping secured a third term as party leader, he praised the country for becoming a global innovator and pledged to help it prosper further. “We will increase investment in science and technology through diverse channels and strengthen legal protection of intellectual property rights, in order to establish a foundational system for all-around innovation,” he told Chinese lawmakers. Click here to read…

Ford Inks Controversial Battery Deal With Chinese Company

One of the biggest carmakers in the world, Ford, has struck a deal with the world’s biggest EV battery maker, CATL, to license its technology at a new, $3.5-billion battery plant in Michigan. While the deal will allow Ford to take advantage of funds being made available by the federal government for the energy transition, it also goes against a major stipulation in the Inflation Reduction Act that allocates these funds: that they stimulate local production, research, and development. The IRA stipulation about local development will not officially be violated, because Ford will simply license the battery technology of CATL rather than setting up a joint venture with it or buying batteries from it, Reuters’ columnist Katrina Hamlin noted in a commentary on the news. Yet it also shows that hard as the Biden administration might try, it would be quite a challenge to eliminate any dependence on China in the EV area, since China is the clear global leader not only in rare earths processing capacity but battery technology as well. The new Ford battery plant is planned to open in 2026 and will create some 2,500 jobs, according to sources quoted by CNBC. The site in Michigan was picked after Virginia withdrew from the race citing Ford’s relationship with CATL. Click here to read…

Russian nuclear power exports booming

Russian nuclear fuel and technology sales soared last year as imports by EU countries climbed to the highest in three years, Bloomberg reported on Feb 14, citing data compiled by the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Figures sourced from Russia’s customs records show that in 2022 exports of nuclear fuel and technology in the country’s strategic industry surged by over 20%, as the US and its allies shied away from imposing penalties on the nuclear sector. The Russian nuclear industry, which has so far gone unsanctioned despite Kiev’s pleas, is essential for the operation of many power plants in Europe. Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom provides about one-fifth of the enriched uranium needed for the 92 reactors in the US. In Europe, utilities that generate power for 100 million people rely on the company. According to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, of the 53 reactors under construction globally as of mid-2022, 20 were being built by Rosatom, 17 of which are outside Russia. The figures show NATO members including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia continued to buy nuclear fuel from the sanctioned country last year. These nations are heavily reliant on nuclear know-how from Russia to run the power plants that produce up to half of the electricity they need. Click here to read…

Chinese retirees take to streets to protest health insurance cuts

Hundreds of retirees took to the streets in the Chinese cities of Wuhan and Dalian on Feb 15 to protest cuts to medical benefits, according to residents and social media posts, following widespread demonstrations last year over COVID curbs. In the central city of Wuhan, hundreds of mainly elderly people could be seen outside the city’s central Zhongshan Park in video clips posted to social media. One video from Wuhan verified by Reuters showed pushing and shoving between protesters and uniformed security personnel. Reuters could not immediately verify images from Dalian and some others from Wuhan widely shared on social media. The demonstrations come weeks ahead of China’s annual parliamentary gathering in early March. The retirees were protesting local reforms including a recent cut to the monthly personal medical benefit allowance for retirees, from 260 yuan ($38) per month to 83 yuan, according to Wuhan residents. It followed a protest over the same issue last week in Wuhan. Some sang songs including the Internationale, which is popular at protests in China. Others held phones aloft and recorded the event. “This money is very little, but to old people it is lifesaving money,” said Wuhan resident Zhang Hai, who did not attend Feb 15’s protest but said some of his friends did. Click here to read…

Pakistan brain drain accelerates in latest threat to ailing economy

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis are leaving for jobs abroad amid the country’s financial and security woes — a brain drain that threatens to further damage the struggling economy. Figures from the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment show that 832,339 Pakistanis went overseas for work in 2022, the most since 2016 and the third-highest tally on record. Saudi Arabia was the most preferred destination, attracting 514,909. Ahmad Jamal, an immigration lawyer in Quetta, said the actual number of people leaving is much larger since the data only covers work visas. He said many categories of emigrants are not included, such as those travelling out on permanent residency visas, student visas and family settlement visas. The dire state of the Pakistani economy offers few reasons to stay. It is on the verge of collapse, with foreign exchange reserves down to $2.9 billion, enough to cover barely three weeks of imports. Inflation hit 27.6% on the year in January. Per capita income stands at $1,658. Last week, talks with the International Monetary Fund for the revival of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility — vital for keeping the country afloat — ended inconclusively. Young Pakistanis, who account for the majority of the population, face bleak prospects. Pakistan’s National Human Development Report in 2017 said 64% were younger than 30, while 29% were between the ages of 15 and 29. Click here to read…

China sanctions Lockheed Martin, Raytheon over Taiwan arms sales

China on Feb 16 put Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies on an “unreliable entities list” over arms sales to Taiwan, banning them from imports and exports related to China in its latest sanctions against the two U.S. companies. The measures come amid heightened tensions after the U.S. military shot down what it says was a Chinese spy balloon, and a day after Beijing warned of “countermeasures against relevant U.S. entities that undermine China’s sovereignty and security.” Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Missiles and Defense, a subsidiary of Raytheon Technologies, are prohibited from “engaging in import and export activities related to China,” China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement. Neither company sells defence products to China. Raytheon declined to comment. Lockheed could not be immediately reached for comment. Beijing also banned the firms from further investment in China, barred senior management from entering the country, cancelled residence permits for any staff in China and imposed fines that are double the contracted amounts of their arms sales to Taiwan. It is not clear how China would enforce such fines, which it said must be paid within 15 days. On at least two previous occasions China has announced sanctions against Lockheed and Raytheon, in 2019 and 2020, though Beijing has not explained what those sanctions entailed or how they were enforced. Click here to read…

Turkey and Syria face long road to recovery after earthquakes

More than 10 days after devastating earthquakes shattered towns and cities in southeast Turkey and parts of Syria, rescue operations have dwindled, and the focus has turned to recovery and cleanup. Dubbed “the disaster of the century” by Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan, nearly 42,000 people across both countries have been killed, with the numbers expected to rise. The earthquakes were followed by 3,858 aftershocks, according to Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), and a total of 50,576 buildings have either collapsed or are heavily damaged. Eyup Muhcu, the president of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (TMOBB), said on Feb 15 that it would take a “considerable amount of time” to clear the rubble from destroyed buildings. Additionally, “the buildings that were heavily damaged would have to be demolished completely,” he told Al Jazeera. “It’s hard to put a timeframe on how long that would take since 10 provinces were affected, and that depends on the capabilities, organisation, and coordination of the public authorities.” Authorities have so far inspected more than 387,000 buildings, but according to Muhcu, some structures could not be reached due to the sheer destruction. “The public institutions and government ministries were not prepared for this disaster,” he said. Click here to read…

Korea’s childbirths hit another fresh low in 2022

The number of babies born in Korea reached yet another fresh low in 2022, data showed Feb 22, with deaths outpacing births for the third consecutive year. A total of 249,000 babies were born last year, falling 4.4 percent from the previous record low in 2021, according to the data from Statistics Korea. The country’s total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.78 in 2022. It also marked the lowest since 1970, when the statistics agency began compiling related data. Last year marked the fifth straight year the rate was below one. Experts believe the rate should be at least 2.1 to keep Korea’s population stable at 52 million. Korea has been dogged by a chronic decline in childbirths as many young people delay or give up on having babies in the face of an economic slowdown and high home prices. Reflecting this, the average age of mothers giving birth came to 33.5 in 2022, up 0.2 from a year earlier. Women gave birth to their first child at 33 on average, followed by second and third at 34.2 and 35.6, respectively. The data showed that for every 1,000 Korean women in their late 20s, 24 babies were born in 2022, down 3.5 from a year earlier. Women in their late 30s, on the other hand, held a comparable figure of 44, up 0.5 on-year. Click here to read…

China and Europe team up on prototype satellite test before joint SMILE space mission in 2025

In an unprecedented collaboration, scientists from China and Europe have completed key tests for a joint space mission to be launched on a European rocket in 2025. The solar wind magnetosphere ionosphere link explorer, or SMILE, has been designed and developed jointly by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) since 2015 to create the most powerful tool for studying the Earth’s magnetic environment. This month, a Chinese team travelled to Noordwijk in the Netherlands to work with colleagues at the European Space Research and Technology Centre under the ESA. They tested whether a prototype satellite of the mission – whose parts, including one from Europe, were assembled at the Innovation Academy for Microsatellites in Shanghai and shipped to Europe – could dock with and separate from the European launcher as designed. The tests were deemed successful, and “excellent collaboration was established” between the Chinese and European teams and the rocket company Arianespace, according to Italian astronomer Graziella Branduardi-Raymont, the mission’s co-principal investigator from University College London. It marked the first time a satellite made in China was shipped to the ESA, and for a Chinese team to help assemble and test a satellite at an ESA facility. Click here to read…

Afghan gov’t to turn former U.S. military bases into economic zones

The Afghan caretaker administration has decided to change former U.S. military bases into economic zones to bolster economic activities, the state-run Bakhtar news agency reported on Feb 19. The decision has been taken at a meeting of the Economic Commission with Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on the chair, Bakhtar said in its report, adding that the pilot project would begin from Kabul and Balkh, and expand to other parts of the country. The military bases, after turning into economic zones, would be gradually handed over to the Ministry of Commerce and Industries, Bakhtar reported. The United States and its allies pulled out troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, leaving the military bases behind. Click here to read…

Strategic

In meeting, Blinken warns China’s Wang Yi against aiding Russia in Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Feb 18 warned top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi of consequences should China provide material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying in an interview after the two met that Washington was concerned Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Moscow. The top diplomats of the two superpowers met at an undisclosed location on the sidelines of a global security conference in Munich, just hours after Wang scolded Washington as “hysterical” in a running dispute over the U.S. downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon. Relations between the two countries have been fraught since Washington said China flew a spy balloon over the continental U.S. before American fighter jets shot it down on President Joe Biden’s orders. The dispute also came at a time when the West is closely watching Beijing’s response to the Ukraine war. In an interview to be aired on Feb 19 morning on NBC News’ “Meet the Press with Chuck Todd,” Blinken said the United States was very concerned that China is considering providing lethal support to Russia and that he made clear to Wang that “would have serious consequences in our relationship.” “There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Blinken said, adding that Washington would soon release more details. Click here to read…

Dogged by Tensions With U.S., China’s Top Diplomat Tries to Assure a Wary Europe

Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, kicks off a weeklong visit to Europe and Russia with a difficult task: Repair fraying relations in the region at a time of heightened tension with the U.S., growing European wariness toward Beijing and concern over China’s partnership with Russia. Mr. Wang met on Feb 15 with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée Palace, followed by stops in Italy, Hungary and Russia. The trip comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stirs deep security worries in Europe—fears that have cast a chill over relations with China in light of Moscow’s close ties with Beijing. The level of skepticism in Europe is lower than that of the U.S., where the arrival of a balloon the Biden administration has called part of an extensive spying effort has fanned anger toward China. But doubts remain. “Wang Yi’s visit will not be a reconciliation,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. “Europe is not in the mood for love.” Mr. Wang’s stop in Russia underscores the close relationship between the two countries. Russian officials have said Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Moscow, likely after China’s legislative sessions in March. That would be the 40th in-person meeting between Mr. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Click here to read…

U.S. sends senior Pentagon official on rare trip to Taiwan

The Pentagon’s top China official has paid a rare visit to Taiwan amid the crisis in relations between Washington and Beijing over a suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down two weeks ago. Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, has arrived in Taiwan, according to one of four people who said he would travel to the island. Chase is the first senior U.S. defense official to travel to the island since the 2019 visit of Heino Klinck, deputy assistant secretary for east Asia, who in turn was the most senior Pentagon official to visit Taiwan in four decades. U.S.-China relations have sunk to a new low after the Chinese military flew a large balloon over North America for eight days until an F-22 shot it down off the coast of South Carolina. China says the balloon was a civilian craft doing meteorological research, but the U.S. insists it was being used for surveillance over sensitive military sites, including nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile silos in Montana. President Joe Biden on Feb 16 said he planned to talk to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to “get to the bottom” of the incident, which has sparked calls in Congress for the U.S. to take a tougher line on Beijing. The Pentagon declined to comment on the trip to Taiwan. Click here to read…

Taiwan to boost military ties with US to curb ‘authoritarian expansionism’

Taiwan will boost military exchanges with the United States to curb “authoritarian expansionism”, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Feb 21 after meeting with visiting US lawmakers. The five-day US congressional visit comes after a top US defence official reportedly made a rare stopover to the self-ruled island while Washington-Beijing tensions flared over alleged Chinese spy balloons. “Taiwan and the United States continue to bolster military exchanges,” Tsai said after convening with the US delegation at her office in Taipei. “Going forward, Taiwan will cooperate even more actively with the United States and other democratic partners to confront such global challenges as authoritarian expansionism and climate change.” Tsai did not provide further details on what the future exchanges might entail. Washington diplomatically recognises Beijing over Taipei, but is also the self-governing island’s most important international benefactor and supports Taipei’s right to decide its own future. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to seize it one day, opposes any official exchanges with the democracy and has reacted with anger to a flurry of trips to the island by US politicians in recent years.Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Feb 21 accused Taiwanese leaders of “provocation”, warning that “any futile separatist conspiracy or scheme relying on foreign forces to undermine cross-strait relations will only backfire and never succeed”. Click here to read…

US auditors headed to Ukraine – WSJ

After sending $110 billion worth of military and financial aid to Ukraine for a year, the US is making plans to send auditors and inspectors to Kiev so they don’t have to rely on second-hand reports, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb 17 citing Pentagon, State Department and USAID officials. The inspectors-general from the three respective agencies told the outlet that so far, oversight was conducted using staff in Poland and Germany. After going to Kiev last month and meeting Ukrainian officials, they decided to send some of their 177 auditors and investigators into Ukraine itself. The trio met with Ukraine’s prime minister, ministers of defence and finance, and the prosecutor general, Defense Department IG Robert Storch told the Journal, adding that they emphasized the US “expectations for accountability, and also the importance of cooperation with our oversight work.” Diana Shaw, deputy IG at the State Department, said the US has given Ukraine “an incredibly large amount of assistance” in a “very short time” and that “Any fraud, waste, abuse that would divert that funding from its intended purpose risks jeopardizing the continued flow of that assistance.” The US Congress appropriated more than $113 billion for aid to Ukraine in 2022. Click here to read…

Biden pledges US$500 million in new military aid to Ukraine during surprise Kyiv visit

US President Joe Biden on Feb 20 made a trip to Kyiv organised in strict secrecy, promising US$500 million in fresh arms deliveries and “unwavering” American support ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Air raid sirens rang out across Kyiv at one point as Biden walked alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during what was the US president’s first visit to the country since Russian troops invaded on Feb 24, 2022. “One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” Biden said, speaking beside Zelensky at the Ukrainian president’s official residence, the Mariinsky Palace. Russian President Vladimir “Putin thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could outlast us.” “He’s just been plain wrong,” Biden said, adding that “Putin’s war of conquest is failing”. The visit was organised in conditions of extraordinary secrecy. Biden left Washington in the early hours of Feb 19 in a plane that had been parked discreetly beside a hanger in the dark with shades drawn, and he landed in Poland on Feb 19 evening. He was driven up to the train platform and quickly boarded the 10-hour overnight service to Kyiv, arriving at 8am local time. One pool reporter and one photographer travelled with him, with their phones taken away by agents, and they could only release full details after Biden had completed the return train journey to Poland. Click here to read…

Kiev’s treatment of minorities to be investigated – Budapest

The Council of Europe will release a report this summer on Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Hungarians and Romanians living on its territory, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Feb 15. Hungarian inhabitants of the Trans-Carpathian region have lost the right to education in their language and have been forcibly drafted into Kiev’s military. In a post on Facebook, Szijjarto said that the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission – which scrutinizes constitutional law and democratic reforms – will give its opinion on the matter in July.“When war broke out next door, we decided not to mention the case of violations of rights against national communities,” Szijjarto wrote. “Unfortunately, in Ukraine, a new law was recently adopted, which further restricts minority rights.” Szijjarto was referring to a law passed in December which mandated that the Ukrainian language be used in most aspects of daily and public life, including in schools. Previous language laws passed by Kiev were criticized by the Venice Commission for failing to safeguard minorities’ linguistic rights, and the latest legislation has been condemned by human rights organizations. Around 156,000 ethnic Hungarians live in Ukraine, most of them in the region of Transcarpathia. Once a part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, this region fell under Soviet control after World War II and remained in Kiev’s hands when the Ukrainian SSR became modern Ukraine after the fall of the USSR. Click here to read…

Blinken warns against seizing Crimea – Politico

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a group of experts that Washington is not “actively encouraging” Ukraine to seize Crimea from Russia, Politico reported on Feb 15. The outlet cited four people familiar with a Zoom call involving the top diplomat, who apparently said that such a move would be “Kiev’s decision alone.” According to the report, the remarks came after a person on the call asked Blinken if the US would help Kiev retake the Black Sea peninsula, which Ukrainian and Western officials consider illegally occupied by Russia. Blinken was said to have replied that this would be “a red line” for Russian President Vladimir Putin and would trigger “a wider Russian response.” Two of the people quoted by Politico said Blinken led them to believe that the US does not consider a potential operation to seize Crimea “a wise move at this time.” However, the diplomat did not say this explicitly, they stressed. Blinken instead said that Washington is focusing on helping Kiev “where the fight is,” according to Politico. Crimea voted in a referendum to split with Ukraine and join Russia shortly after the 2014 Western-backed coup in Kiev. Ukrainian officials have since maintained that the return of the peninsula is their long-term goal. Click here to read…

Russia says will comply with nuclear disarmament treaty despite suspension

Russia will continue to observe limits on the number of nuclear warheads it can deploy under the New START treaty despite a decision to suspend participation in the agreement, Moscow said. President Vladimir Putin announced the freeze during a speech on Feb 21 to both houses of the Russian parliament in which he also repeated accusations the West was seeking to destroy Russia. The lower house Duma will on Feb 22 consider Putin’s draft law on suspending participation in the New START treaty. It is expected to rubber-stamp it. Under the treaty, signed in 2010 and extended until 2026, Moscow and Washington committed to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers. “In order to maintain a sufficient degree of predictability and stability in the sphere of nuclear missiles, Russia intends to adhere to a responsible approach and will continue to strictly observe the quantitative restrictions provided for by the New START treaty within the life cycle of the treaty,” the foreign ministry in Moscow said in a statement. The ministry also said it would continue to notify the United States of planned test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Click here to read…

Japan, China to hold security talks next week, Japan foreign minister says

Japan and China will hold security talks next week, Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said after meeting his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb 18. The agreement to hold the security talks, the first to be held in four years, came after Hayashi and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi spoke ahead of the conference. “It is important for us to have frank discussions precisely because there are a number of pressing matters in our relationship”, Hayashi said to reporters, highlighting a territorial spat in the East China Sea and increasing Chinese and Russian military presence around Japanese waters as some of the issues that need to be discussed. The disputed East China Sea islets claimed by both China and Japan have long been a sticking point in bilateral relations. China calls the islands Diaoyu, while Japan calls them Senkaku. Japan and China will hold talks on Feb 21 and Feb 22, according to a statement released by Japan’s foreign ministry. Hayashi said he also discussed the identification of surveillance balloons in Japan’s skies with his Chinese counterpart, telling Wang that “whatever country the balloons may belong to, entering a foreign country’s airspace without permission constitutes an airspace violation”.Click here to read…

Japan to order 500 Tomahawk missiles from U.S. in FY 2023

Japan plans to order up to 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States in fiscal 2023 to bolster its defences, including the ability to strike menacing enemy bases. Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said on Feb. 14 that the expenses for the required Tomahawks will be covered in the budget proposal submitted to the current Diet session. The government has earmarked 211.3 billion yen ($1.59 billion) in the budget plan for fiscal 2023, which starts in April, to buy Tomahawk missiles. The Defense Ministry aims to deploy them by March 2027. Ministry officials said the costs to upgrade its Aegis-equipped destroyers and other projects for installation of the Tomahawks will come from the budgets for fiscal 2024 and beyond. The ministry also plans to upgrade Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles to give them the capacity to strike enemy bases. The Japanese-made weapon is expected to be deployed in fiscal 2026 with an extended range of 1,000 kilometers. However, the Type 12 project could be delayed. The announced bulk purchase of Tomahawks reflects Tokyo’s aim to ensure a prompt upgrade of the nation’s defences with the proven U.S. weapon. The Tomahawk missile is a precision weapon that can be launched from ships and submarines and can hit targets about 1,610 km away, according to the manufacturer. Click here to read…

U.S., China, other nations urge ‘responsible’ use of military AI

More than 60 countries including the U.S. and China signed a modest “call to action” on Feb 16 endorsing the responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military. Human rights experts and academics noted the statement was not legally binding and failed to address concerns like AI-guided drones, ‘slaughter-bots’ that could kill with no human intervention, or the risk that an AI could escalate a military conflict. However, the statement was a tangible outcome of the first international summit on military AI, co-hosted by the Netherlands and South Korea this week at The Hague. Signatories said they were committed to developing and using military AI in accordance with “international legal obligations and in a way that does not undermine international security, stability and accountability.”The conference comes as interest in AI is at all-time highs thanks to the launch of Open AI’s Chat GPT programme and as Ukraine has made use of facial recognition and AI-assisted targeting systems in its fight with Russia. Organizers did not invite Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation.” Ukraine did not attend. Israel participated in the conference but did not sign the statement. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Bonnie Jenkins put forward a U.S. framework for responsible military AI use. Click here to read…

African Union says Israel’s observer status suspended

The African Union has said that Israel’s observer status at the bloc was suspended which is why it was not invited to attend the weekend summit. The news comes after Israeli ambassador Sharon Bar-li was removed from the African Union’s annual summit in Ethiopia on Feb 18 as she attempted to attend using a non-transferable invitation issued only to Israel’s ambassador to the African Union, Aleli Admasu. Video circulating on social media showed guards escorting Bar-li out of the AU assembly hall in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. “The status is suspended until such time as this committee can deliberate … and so we did not invite Israeli officials to our summit,” AU Commission chief Moussa Faki Mahamat told reporters on Feb 19, adding that an investigation was being conducted into Feb 18’s incident. A spokesperson for Israel’s foreign ministry said Bar-li was “an accredited observer with an entry tag”, and accused the AU of being taken hostage by a “small number of extremist states like Algeria and South Africa, which are driven by hatred and controlled by Iran”. The incident highlighted a spat within the pan-African bloc over a unilateral 2021 decision by Mahamat to give Israel observer status, triggering protests by several member states. Israel obtained observer status after two decades of diplomatic efforts. Click here to read…

North Korea Launches ICBM, Raising Tensions in Region

North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, escalating tensions in the region as the U.S. and South Korea prepare for joint military exercises.The missile was fired eastward Feb 18 shortly before 5:30 p.m. local time from the Sunan area in the outskirts of North Korea’s capital city of Pyongyang. It was in the air for a little more than an hour, reaching an altitude of more than 3,500 miles. It travelled a distance of about 560 miles before landing in the sea about 155 miles west of Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone, according to South Korean and Japanese defence officials. This is an “outrageous act that escalates the country’s provocation against the entire international community,” said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Based on Feb 18’s flight trajectory, the range of North Korea’s ICBM could exceed about 8,700 miles depending on the weight of the warhead, putting the entire U.S. in the missile’s target range, said Japan’s defense minister, Yasukazu Hamada. The U.S. and South Korea held discussions after the missile launch and reaffirmed their commitment to step up their joint defences against the North, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. The test was North Korea’s second missile test of the year, with the first coming on Jan. 1, when the country tested a shorter-range missile. Click here to read…

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2023: Communist Party leaders review names for top state, political advisory roles

The top leaders of China’s ruling Communist Party have finalised the line-up for key government, legislative and political advisory positions to be formally endorsed by the national legislature at its annual session next month. Senior leaders also agreed to consider further restructuring of party and state bodies to ensure “better institutions” and “more efficient” management when a key committee meets next week, state news agency Xinhua said. This came as the Politburo, the party’s No 2 decision-making body, met in Beijing on Tuesday to discuss recommendations for candidates to join state institutions and the country’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). It was also decided that the second plenary session for the new Central Committee – the party’s top policymaking body – would be held from February 26 to 28. Its first plenum was held on October 23, just after the 20th five-yearly party congress. The candidates and restructuring plan will undergo a final review and approval process at the plenum before being submitted to the National People’s Congress when its annual legislative session opens on March 5. This would mark the last step in the latest five-yearly cycle of political succession in China, which began with a major reshuffle in the top party line-up at the 20th congress. Click here to read…

Health

WHO calls urgent meeting on killer virus

The World Health Organization (WHO) has convened to discuss a new outbreak of a highly infectious virus in Central Africa. The body is looking at several vaccine candidates that could potentially stop the pathogen that causes hemorrhagic fever with a fatality rate of up to 88%. WHO officials held an “urgent” meeting on Feb 14 to review the Marburg virus now spreading in Equatorial Guinea, where at least nine people have lost their lives to the illness, in addition to more than a dozen suspected cases. The agency announced that medical experts and protective gear would be sent to the country, and said samples would be brought to a lab in Senegal to help trace the origin of the new outbreak. “Marburg is highly infectious. Thanks to the rapid and decisive action by the Equatorial Guinean authorities in confirming the disease, emergency response can get to full steam quickly so that we save lives and halt the virus as soon as possible,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa, said. Belonging to the same family of viruses as Ebola, Marburg is considered highly dangerous and is known to cause a form of viral hemorrhagic fever, which leads to bleeding from the nose, mouth, or other body parts. Other symptoms include extreme lethargy, dehydration, nausea, vomiting, sore throat, and abdominal pain. Click here to read…

Infectious diseases a near-term concern in quake-stricken Türkiye, Syria: ECDC

The next two to four weeks may see the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the quake-stricken areas in Türkiye and Syria, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said on Feb 20. “Food and water-borne diseases, respiratory infections and vaccine-preventable infections are a risk in the upcoming period, with the potential to cause outbreaks, particularly as survivors are moving to temporary shelters,” it said in a news release. The ECDC said that “the damaged utility infrastructure, including water and electricity, causing limited access to clean water, inadequate sanitation and hygiene facilities, improper refrigeration and cooking systems may increase the occurrence and transmission of food-and waterborne illnesses.”The agency predicted that a surge of cholera cases in the affected areas is a significant possibility in the coming weeks. Other food and/or waterborne diseases, such as hepatitis A, norovirus and rotavirus, can also cause outbreaks in camps. Moreover, the agency said respiratory infections, such as COVID-19, seasonal influenza and other respiratory viruses are “a particular concern” to the very young and the elderly, who are more vulnerable to complications. “Crowding conditions in temporary settlements can increase the risk of transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases, such as measles, varicella, meningitis or poliomyelitis,” it said. Click here to read…

Economic

U.S.-China trade hit record in 2022 despite tensions

Trade between the U.S. and China set a record last year, official figures released Feb 07 show, despite bilateral tensions running high. Imports and exports of goods between the countries hit $690.6 billion, a U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows. The U.S. imported more toys and other consumer products, with China increasing imports of soybeans and other foods. The robust figures run counter to talk that the world’s two largest economies are on track to decouple. Exports to China increased by $2.4 billion, to $153.8 billion, while imports from China rose $31.8 billion to reach $536.8 billion, underpinned by strong U.S. consumer spending in the first half. The previous high for imports and exports between the two countries was $659 billion in 2018. “For U.S. importers, the benefit of buying cheap Chinese products was compelling, even with the sanction tariffs,” said Kensuke Abe of trading company Marubeni’s Washington office. Tariffs imposed on Chinese goods such as toys and plastic products — worth $370 billion — during the Trump administration mostly remain. The Biden administration weighed cutting them as part of dealing with the acute inflation, but the momentum for the move faded after Sino-American tensions rose, partly due to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last summer. Click here to read…

Biden SOTU: Oil Demand Will Last For At Least A Decade

In a rather surprising comment during the State of the Union Speech Feb 07 night, U.S. President Joe Biden admitted that the world would still need oil and gas “for at least another decade,” adding “and beyond that.” The acknowledgment surprised some followers and even elicited boos and hearty laughs from some in the crowd, although most in the oil and gas industry have long maintained that they will be needed for many years to come. Others in the oil and gas industry could consider his acknowledgment as going not far enough, considering the President’s chastisement of said industry for not ramping up investments as the world rebounded from Covid. Instead, the oil industry has been hard at work spending billions in share buybacks and paying out dividends, and President Biden has not wasted the opportunity to point out the industry’s war profiteering. In his speech last night, President Biden called for a quadrupling of taxes on corporate stock buybacks, which the President says will encourage more industry investments in the long term. But “long term” to the industry likely goes significantly beyond the decade to which Biden is referring, especially considering he is asking the industry to sink billions and billions of dollars into future development—many of which take years to come to fruition. Click here to read…

West European energy subsidies approaching $1 trillion – think tank

European nations have splashed out nearly €800 billion ($855 billion) on support measures as the region continues to reel from climbing energy costs, researchers at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel said on Feb 13. The analysts have urged governments to be more targeted in their spending aimed at subsidizing bills for households and businesses, in the face of wild swings in prices for gas and electricity over the past year. EU member states have so far allocated €681 billion to energy spending since September 2021, according to the researchers at Bruegel. Meanwhile, the UK and Norway have reportedly earmarked the equivalent of €103 billion and €8.1 billon, respectively. The total of €792 billion marks a nearly €86 billion increase in spending since Bruegel’s last assessment released in November. The think tank attributes the boost to the region’s continued need to turn to more expensive supplies through winter after most EU states opted to stop importing gas from Russia. Germany reportedly topped the spending chart, allocating some €270 billion, while the UK, Italy and France – the next highest – each spent almost €150 billion. Most EU states spent a fraction of that. Luxembourg, Denmark and Germany were the biggest spenders on a per capita basis. The update on energy spending comes as EU member states are debating proposals to ease state aid rules further for green technology projects, as the region seeks to compete with subsidies in the US and China. Click here to read…

Oil prices jump after Russia announces production cuts

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Feb 10, heading for weekly gains, as Moscow announced plans to reduce crude production next month in response to Western price caps. Brent crude futures were trading 2% higher to $86.21 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 2% at $79.63. Both contracts are on course for weekly gains of around 10%. Earlier on Feb 10, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced that Moscow will voluntarily reduce oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day as it halts sales to buyers complying with a Western-imposed price cap. Novak said the move should help restore market relations shattered by the price ceiling, which he branded “illegal.” The EU and the G7 nations introduced a price cap on Russian refined oil products on February 5, setting a limit of $100 per barrel for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline coming from Russia, and a $45-per-barrel cap for other oil products that trade below the crude price, such as fuel oil used in industry. Fuel exports priced over these limits will be barred from insurance and shipping services from companies located in Western countries. The caps follow a previously introduced $60-per-barrel price ceiling on Russian crude oil. Click here to read…

Russia finds alternative to Siemens turbines

Russia has begun producing Iranian-designed parts to replace Siemens turbines in its hydropower plants after sanctions impeded the servicing of German-made equipment last year. MGT-70 gas turbine units are copies of Siemens hardware, developed by the Islamic Republic. The country attained a license for their assembly and localized production before a recent wave of anti-Iran sanctions took effect. Currently, Russia can domestically produce small and medium turbines, but devices with a large capacity of between 100MW and 120MW were produced at a Siemens assembly plant in Russia. The Iranian turbines could potentially replace equipment produced by the German industrial giant, which halted operations in Russia last year due to sanctions. These measures have hit industry ties between Russia and its Western equipment suppliers. Last year, state energy giant Gazprom had to gradually reduce gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to technical problems related to servicing turbines. Manufactured by Siemens, the turbines needed regular maintenance at the company’s plant in Montreal, Canada, where they became stranded due to Ottawa’s sanctions on Russia’s energy industry. After a request from Germany, which feared a shortage of gas if the pipeline were shut down, Canada exempted the turbines from restrictions. Click here to read…

China Makes Big Moves To Secure Iraqi Oil

Whilst the U.S. and its allies appear to be taking a subtle approach to advancing their remaining interests in Iraq, as hinted at by the Qatar’s talks to buy a 30 percent stake in TotalEnergies’ US$27 billion project package, China seems to be taking a more direct route to what it wants. Last week saw six oil concessions awarded by Baghdad to three companies from China and the UAE, as part of the fifth licensing round, according to Iraq’s latest Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul Ghani. In addition, according to a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com in the past few days, PetroChina is set to take over as the sole lead operator of Iraq’s supergiant West Qurna 1 oil field as the U.S.’s ExxonMobil is finally close to being able to sell its 32.7 percent stake in the site. Looking at the second part of this turn of events in China’s favour first, West Qurna 1, located around 65 kilometres from southern Iraq’s principal oil and export hub of Basra, holds a considerable portion of the estimated 43 billion barrels of recoverable reserves held in the entire supergiant West Qurna oil reservoir that comprises the West Qurna 1 and West Qurna 2 oil fields. Click here to read…

Indonesia promises move to clean energy, but challenges loom

In Indonesia’s region of East Kalimantan, the country’s dependence on coal is on full display. Driving on the region’s toll road, passersby can watch excavators digging coal from shallow pits as trucks filled with the carbon-rich rocks rush by. Under a bridge in Samarinda, the region’s capital, hundreds of mammoth, jet-black mountains of coal sit in barges being pulled along the waterway, headed to plants across Indonesia or other countries. They’re sights that Indonesia has pledged to phase out–or at least drastically reduce–by agreeing to some five schemes with international stakeholders, including the largest-signed $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership deal. While the deals aim to turn one of the largest coal-producing countries toward its vast greener energy sources, experts warn that financial, policy, infrastructure and other challenges need to be overcome. Indonesia’s energy transition is “very unique” because of high economic growth, geography, population centers and clean energy potential, said David Elzinga, a principal energy specialist at the Asian Development Bank. Despite Indonesia’s energy potential from solar, hydropower, geothermal, wind and other sources, only some 12% of them are tapped, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. Nearly all energy demand is met by fossil fuels, with 60% coming from highly-polluting coal. Click here to read…

Australia trade minister to travel to Beijing to meet counterpart

Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Feb 06 he had agreed to an in-person meeting with Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in Beijing in the near future, in the latest sign that relations between the two countries are thawing. “Our meeting represents another important step in the stabilization of Australia’s relations with China,” said Farrell following a videoconference meeting, the first between the trade ministers of the two countries since 2019. “Our discussion covered a range of trade and investment issues, including the need for resumption of unimpeded trade for Australian exporters so that Chinese consumers can continue to benefit from high-quality Australian products.” The two ministers agreed to enhance dialogue at all levels, including between officials, as a pathway toward the timely and full resumption of trade, Farrell’s office said in a statement. Both parties agreed to look for further ways to cooperate, including on climate change and encouraging business delegations, the statement added. The meet comes weeks after Chinese officials relaxed import bans on Australian coal as both countries work to improve diplomatic relations after more than two years of Chinese trade sanctions that have frozen trade in barley, coal, wine and other goods and services. Click here to read…

Kazuo Ueda, Tapped as Bank of Japan Chief, Is Seen as Pragmatic Insider

Kazuo Ueda, who was picked Feb 14 to lead Japan’s central bank, is a pragmatist steeped in the institution’s culture who is likely to seek balance among competing camps, say people who know him. In his writings, Mr. Ueda, 71, tends to discuss scenarios and risks without advocating any position, sometimes irking those who want more aggressive action. Mr. Ueda has said he thinks Japan’s weak economy requires monetary stimulus, but has also sympathized with bankers who complain that low interest rates are hitting their profits. He shows familiarity with theories that suggest Japan’s high government debt isn’t a problem—and perhaps should go even higher—but he also nods to fiscal hawks who fear the debt could spiral out of control. “He thinks through various ideas flexibly and fairly,” said Koichi Hamada, an emeritus professor of economics at Yale University who has known Mr. Ueda since the 1970s when they worked together on a research paper. “He is the right person for the job because he is able to keep balance and manage policy calmly when views are split.” Some years ago, Mr. Hamada, an advocate of strong monetary stimulus, approached Mr. Ueda for a book of interviews Mr. Hamada was conducting with leading economists. As Mr. Hamada tells the story, Mr. Ueda said no, explaining that he found his former colleague too doctrinaire. A representative of Kyoritsu Women’s University, where Mr. Ueda teaches, said he wasn’t available for comment. Click here to read…

Europe Sets Rules for Producing Green Hydrogen

The European Union issued strict regulations for what qualifies as renewable hydrogen under its clean-energy transition plan, shaping how companies are expected to deploy billions of euros of investments in hydrogen factories in the coming years. Governments around the world are looking to hydrogen to help replace fossil fuels in industrial processes and electricity generation. Current supplies of hydrogen are largely produced from cracking open molecules of natural gas. The U.S., Europe and other countries are planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars on factories that use electricity to power machines called electrolyzers, which produce hydrogen by splitting open molecules of water. The question is how much of that electricity should come from renewable sources for the hydrogen to be considered renewable. In Europe, the answer will determine whether hydrogen producers can qualify for financial incentives and whether their product can be used to meet the bloc’s renewable-energy targets. The U.S. Treasury Department is drafting rules that will determine which producers can qualify for billions of dollars in tax credits for green hydrogen under the Inflation Reduction Act. “The commission’s had to achieve a very difficult balancing exercise between ensuring that the production of renewable hydrogen doesn’t result in additional fossil fuel generation — which could be considered to be greenwashing” and allowing the market to grow, said Christopher Jones, an energy and antitrust expert at law firm Baker McKenzie. Click here to read…

North Korea stole record amount of crypto in 2022: U.N. report

North Korea stole a record amount of cryptocurrency assets in 2022, according to a draft United Nations report obtained by Nikkei, another sign of how the isolated country is circumventing international sanctions to raise funds. The report, compiled by a U.N. Security Council panel, details that North Korean actors used increasingly sophisticated techniques to gain access to digital networks involved in cyber finance and steal information of potential value, including for weapons programs. This led to a higher value of cryptocurrency assets being stolen by North Korea in 2022 than in any previous year, according to the report. The panel also investigated the alleged export of North Korean military communications equipment and began an investigation into reports of ammunition exports. In the report, the panel accuses North Korea of continuing the production of nuclear fissile materials. It also says North Korea carried out tests of at least 73 ballistic missiles and missiles combining ballistic and guidance technologies, including eight intercontinental ballistic missiles. The hermit nation “openly describes many of the missile launches as ‘ballistic,’ in explicit violation of the United Nations sanctions regime,” the report said. The panel also noted that illicit ship-to-ship imports of cargo in North Korean territorial waters continue and that prohibited ship-to-ship exports of North Korean coal persist. Click here to read…

East Timor faces economic challenges ahead of joining ASEAN

East Timor’s accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has received considerable attention in diplomatic circles since November, when leaders from the bloc agreed “in principle” to admit the island state as its 11th member. But experts caution that the tiny country of 1.3 million people still has much to do to meet the expectations of existing members. “Even as East Timor was admitted to join ASEAN, I think it will be not easy, and will take time,” one diplomat from outside the bloc told Nikkei Asia earlier this month. ASEAN leaders at the November summit agreed to pave the way for Timor-Leste, as East Timor is officially known, to join the bloc and said a road map for full membership will be drawn up at this year’s summit. ASEAN foreign ministers met Saturday, with the envoy from East Timor invited for the first time. At the meeting, ministers from the current members adopted guidelines regarding East Timor’s observer status in the group. Despite the progress, some experts say East Timor has a long way to go before it becomes a full member. “Timor-Leste is still [in] observer status for now, but if Indonesia does manage to help get Timor-Leste into ASEAN, it faces several challenges,” said Maria Ortuoste, a professor of political science at California State University East Bay. Indonesia is the rotating chair of ASEAN this year. Click here to read…

Japan worries it could miss out on leading project to develop new jets

Government officials are concerned they will lose out on playing a leadership role in developing the next-generation fighter jet for the Air Self-Defense Force. Japan reached an agreement in December with Britain and Italy to jointly develop a new fighter jet. The three companies involved in the endeavor–Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Britain’s BAE Systems Plc and Leonardo SpA of Italy–will establish a joint venture for the development of the aircraft to replace the F-2, according to sources. The head office of the new company will be in Britain, mainly because the corporate tax rate there is low. British companies also have a proven record of developing and exporting fighter jets. But with the head office in Britain, Japan will not likely play a leadership role in the joint development project. That had been considered a key factor when government officials were considering which nation to work with in the joint development project. Originally, the United States had been the leading candidate because of its long history of being an ally to Japan. Some officials had suggested partnering with Britain, however, would make it easier for Japan to play a leadership role. That optimism now appears to have been premature. Click here to read…

China’s South America free-trade deal to have ‘clear impact’, but may irk US by seeking opportunities in its ‘backyard’

A proposed free-trade agreement between China and a group of South American nations, which includes Argentina and Brazil, will benefit all sides economically, but will further increase competition between Washington and Beijing in the so-called backyard of the United States, according to analysts. New leftist Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that the proposed deal between China and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), which also includes Uruguay and Paraguay as full members, will modernise and open up the South American trade bloc to other regions. A possible agreement can be discussed after a similar free-trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union is finalised, added Lula, who returned for a third term as president in January. “The unilateralism and hegemonism of the US contradict with the multilateralism and an open regionalism of Mercosur, including those in Latin America and Caribbean,” said Xie Wenze, a professor with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies. Lula’s election had already renewed hopes of the deal with the European Union 20 years after negotiations started, and reports suggest it could be ratified this year. China is Brazil and Uruguay’s No 1 trading partner, as well as Argentina’s No 2, but Beijing has not yet established an official relationship with Paraguay due to its stance on Taiwan. Click here to read…

China stock rally stutters as Goldman Sachs report shows reopening exuberance fading amid spending, property worries

Sluggish consumer spending and a property market that remains in the doldrums are making money managers who invest in Chinese stocks cautious about the strength and speed of China’s recovery, according to Goldman Sachs. While there is a consensus view that China’s economy will bounce back this year after the removal of all Covid-19 restrictions, investors are not convinced about the timing or magnitude of the recovery, the US investment bank said in a report based on meetings with both onshore and offshore fund managers at asset-management firms and insurance companies. Local traders expect a slow recovery in household consumption this year because of the weakening home market and fallout from three years of pandemic curbs, economists led by Maggie Wei and Hui Shan wrote in the report, released on Feb 10. Efforts to arrest the downturn of the real-estate sector have not translated into a material industry-wide recovery so far, they said. “China’s own experiences suggest property down cycles have always been associated with weak household consumption,” the report said. “Local investors therefore question, without the stabilisation or rebound of the property sector, whether relaxation of Covid controls alone could generate high single-digit year-over-year growth in household consumption.” Click here to read…

Strategic

Xi, Biden stake claims in China-US rivalry by touting opposing political systems

In two pivotal speeches within a day, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden sought to seize higher ground in the China-US rivalry as tensions between the world’s two most powerful nations rise on various fronts, from ideology to geopolitics. In a rare, explicit display of celebration of the Chinese governance model against Western systems, Xi argued in a speech on Feb 07 that China had debunked “the myth that modernisation means Westernisation” and hailed the Chinese model as one for developing countries to follow. Addressing top Communist Party cadres and government officials at a study session to follow up on key decisions made at the 20th party congress in October, Xi said China’s path “showed a new modernisation model, different from the West”, which he called a “brand new form of human civilisation”. “We have completed in decades the industrialisation process that had taken developed Western countries hundreds of years,” he said in the speech, a month before an annual legislative session unveils a new line-up of top government jobs for the next five years. Hours later, Biden mentioned China five times in his State of the Union address, calling for solidarity among Democrats and Republicans. Click here to read…

China welcomes Yellen’s visit, helpful for thawing fraught relations

China welcomes US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to visit China, Shu Jueting, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), said at a regular press conference on Feb 09. Experts said the comment sends a clear message about China’s open stance for dialogue with the US despite their disputes. Yellen said on Feb 08 that she wants to visit China, though she has no specific plans at the current stage, Bloomberg reported on Feb 09. When asked about such a visit by the media, Yellen said: “I do think improved communication is important…I still hope to be able to visit China and meet with economic counterparts, but I don’t have any more details to offer.” Following a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on January 18 in Switzerland, the US Treasury announced Yellen’s plans to travel to China and welcomed her counterparts to the US in February. In responding to media questions about Yellen’s remarks, the MOFCOM spokesperson said that it is important for both countries to maintain normal communication, while noting Liu and Yellen’s half-day constructive meeting in Zurich. Now that China-US relations are affected by the balloon case, Yellen’s statement about her willingness to visit China is sending a relatively positive signal, Chinese experts said. Click here to read…

Russia intensifies winter assault as Ukraine braces for major offensive

Russian forces ramped up a winter assault in eastern Ukraine, bringing tens of thousands of freshly mobilised troops to the battlefield, while Kyiv expected Moscow to broaden its offensive as towns in the northeast and south came under fire. Ukraine’s military said on Feb 07 that 1,030 Russian troops were killed over 24 hours, the highest daily toll of the war. The figure could not be independently verified, and Russia has also claimed to have killed large numbers of Ukrainian troops in recent weeks. For its part, Russia said it had inflicted 6,500 Ukrainian casualties in the month of January. Ukraine national security chief Oleksiy Danilov said in an interview on Feb 07 that the Kremlin is expected to target the northeastern Kharkiv or southern Zaporizhzhia regions in a new thrust. “Attempts at an offensive in either the Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia direction will of course be made,” he told Reuters in Kyiv. “How successful they’ll be will depend on us.” The Ukraine Armed Forces said on Feb 07 evening that more than 30 towns and villages in Kharkiv and 20 communities in Zaporizhzhia came under fire. Click here to read…

Russia comments on prospects of peace treaty with Japan

Any plans to strike a peace treaty with Japan are off the table for Moscow, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has said, citing Tokyo’s hostility towards Russia. “As for the subject of a peace treaty, as you know, it has been closed for us,” Maria Zakharova said during a regular media briefing on Feb 10. The spokeswoman noted that the Foreign Ministry clearly articulated its position on the issue last March, stating that the “unfriendly” stance of Japan makes any further negotiations impossible. The remarks came shortly after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to prioritize reopening talks with Moscow on the peace treaty, and resolving the territorial dispute over the South Kuril Islands, referred to by Tokyo as the “northern territories.” “The fact that 77 years after the end of the war, the issue of the Northern Territories has not been resolved and there is no peace treaty between Japan and Russia is extremely regrettable… The Japanese government is committed to resolving the territorial issue and concluding a peace treaty,” Kishida said on Feb 07 during a ceremony to commemorate the day of the “northern territories.” During the event, Japan referred to the four southern islands of the Kuril chain as “illegally occupied” by Moscow for the first time in five years. Click here to read…

China and visiting Kuomintang official affirm working to keep peace

A top Chinese official told a senior Taiwan opposition figure on Feb 10 that both China’s Communist Party and Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) should oppose Taiwan independence and interference by external forces. Wang Huning, the Communist Party’s fourth-ranked leader, told Andrew Hsia, Taiwan’s opposition KMT’s deputy chairman, during a meeting in Beijing that both parties should maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese state television reported. China claims democratically ruled Taiwan as its own and has stepped up military and diplomatic pressure to get the island to accept Chinese sovereignty. Taiwan’s government says only the Taiwanese people can decide their future. The KMT said Hsia told Wang that no matter how big their differences are, as long as the two sides can continue dialogue and regard maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait as an important goal, “there are no difficulties that cannot be resolved.” “Maintaining the peace and stability of cross-strait relations and promoting the well-being of the people of Taiwan and the people on both sides of the strait have always been the KMT’s highest-priority policy goal,” the party paraphrased Hsia as saying. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has seized on Hsia’s China trip to attack the KMT for being too close to Beijing and wanting to sell out Taiwan, and has criticized Hsia for going to “pay court to the communists.” Click here to read…

Abe calls Trump ‘unconventional,’ Xi ‘realist’ in posthumous memoir

Former U.S. President Donald Trump was “unconventional through and through,” while Chinese President Xi Jinping was a “fierce realist.” This is how former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe describes the two leaders in a posthumous memoir that goes on sale in Japan on Feb 08. Abe provided an in-depth look into his interactions with global leaders in the book, which is a collection of 18 interviews he gave after stepping down in October 2020. Abe, who was assassinated while campaigning in Nara Prefecture in July last year, is the longest-serving Japanese prime minister, with his eight years and eight months in office. The ex-leader framed his efforts to build rapport with Trump, including through rounds of golf, as a matter of protecting Japanese interests. “Japan as a whole would have been in a difficult situation if it became a target” of Trump’s criticism, Abe said of his approach. “It was important to create an environment where we could talk.” Trump did not see himself as the leader of the Western world, Abe said. “He saw things from a bilateral lens, like treating U.S.-China ties as a matter of the trade balance or looking at U.S.-Russia relations solely as a matter of national security,” Abe said. Abe said he repeatedly urged Trump “to act as the leader of the free world.” On former U.S. President Barack Obama, Abe said: “We only spoke about work. He is a type of person who is difficult to forge friendship with.” Click here to read…

U.S. renews warning it’ll defend Philippines after China spat

The United States renewed a warning that it would defend its treaty ally if Filipino forces come under an armed attack in the disputed South China Sea after a Chinese coast guard ship allegedly hit a Philippine patrol vessel with military-grade laser that temporarily blinded some of its crew. U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said China’s “dangerous operational behavior directly threatens regional peace and stability, infringes upon freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as guaranteed under international law and undermines the rules-based international order.” “The United States stands with our Philippine allies,” Price said in a statement after the Philippines on Feb 13 accused a Chinese coast guard ship of using laser on Feb. 6 to block the Philippine patrol vessel BRP Malapascua from approaching the Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef that has been occupied by Filipino forces. “An armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including those of the coast guard in the South China Sea, would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments” under a 1951 treaty, he said. The treaty obligates the allies to help defend one another in case of an external attack. Click here to read…

Japan eyes Philippines as first recipient of security grant

Japan is looking to provide a security cooperation grant to the Philippines, its first such allotment under a new program designed to bolster the defensive capabilities of regional allies. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Tokyo on Feb 09, with both sides working to include the grant in the summit’s outcome document. In key security policy documents updated in December, Japan outlined plans to create the new program as a way to strengthen the armed forces of partner countries. The government’s draft budget for fiscal 2023 included 2 billion yen ($15.2 million) for the initiative. The Philippines would be the first recipient of the grants, which could take the form of funding and equipment. Further details will be ironed out once the Japanese parliament passes the budget. The new program is separate from Japan’s development assistance grants, which are limited to nonmilitary purposes. In remarks delivered on Feb 08 before leaving for Japan, Marcos expressed interest in pursuing wide-ranging cooperation with Japan, including on the national security and economic fronts. Click here to read…

U.S. jets down 4 objects in 8 days, unprecedented in peacetime

A U.S. fighter jet shot down an “unidentified object” over Lake Huron on Feb 12 on orders from President Joe Biden. It was the fourth such downing in eight days and the latest military strike in an extraordinary chain of events over U.S. airspace that Pentagon officials believe has no peacetime precedent. Part of the reason for the repeated shootdowns is a “heightened alert” following a spy balloon from China that emerged over U.S. airspace in late January, Gen. Glen VanHerck, head of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command, said in a briefing with reporters. Since then, fighter jets last week also shot down objects over Canada and Alaska. Pentagon officials said they posed no security threats, but so little was known about them that Pentagon officials were ruling nothing out — not even UFOs. “We have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase,” said Melissa Dalton, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense. U.S. authorities have made clear that they constantly monitor for unknown radar blips, and it is not unusual to shut down airspace as a precaution to evaluate them. But the unusually assertive response was raising questions about whether such use of force was warranted, particularly as administration officials said the objects were not of great national security concern and the downings were just out of caution. Click here to read…

China Has More ICBM Launchers Than U.S., American Military Reports

The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the U.S., fueling the debate about how Washington should respond to Beijing’s nuclear buildup. “The number of land-based fixed and mobile ICBM launchers in China exceeds the number of ICBM launchers in the United States,” the commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees nuclear forces, wrote the Senate’s and House’s Armed Services Committees on Jan. 26. The notification comes as the U.S. is facing the challenge of deterring Russia’s substantial nuclear forces as well as China’s growing nuclear arsenal. U.S. lawmakers are involved in an increasingly heated debate about how best to counter Beijing, including the Pentagon’s response to the Chinese surveillance balloon that recently traversed the U.S. and hovered over Montana, where a portion of the American military’s ICBM arsenal is deployed. The U.S., which is modernizing all three legs of its land, sea and air based nuclear arsenal, has a much larger nuclear force than China. The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast South Carolina. Many of China’s land-based launchers still consist of empty silos, according to U.S. officials and experts outside government. The Strategic Command also notified Congress that the U.S. has more intercontinental-range missiles based on land, and more nuclear warheads mounted on those missiles, than China. Click here to read…

Xinjiang Governor’s Planned Visit to Europe Sparks Anger

Lawmakers and human-rights groups in Europe have denounced an expected visit to London and Brussels this month by a Chinese official sanctioned by the U.S. for helping orchestrate repression of ethnic minorities. The official, Erkin Tuniyaz, is the governor of Xinjiang, the region of northwest China where as many as a million or more Uyghurs, Kazakhs and members of other Turkic groups have been held in camps and prisons as part of a campaign of forced assimilation. Mr. Tuniyaz, who is chairman of the Xinjiang government and the region’s No. 2 official, has been a visible advocate of Chinese policies in the region. He described the mass detention program as “preventive counterterrorism and deradicalization measures” enacted under Chinese law during an online forum held by the regional government and China’s U.N. mission in 2021. The U.S., which has said China’s campaign in Xinjiang amounts to a form of genocide, sanctioned Mr. Tuniyaz in 2021 for being the leader of an entity that has engaged in “serious human rights abuse.” The designation makes him ineligible to travel to the U.S. The U.K. Parliament also passed a motion in 2021 describing China’s policies in the region as genocide, and the European Parliament adopted a resolution last year that the campaign carried a “serious risk of genocide.” Both the U.K. and the European Union have sanctioned Chinese officials in Xinjiang, but not Mr. Tuniyaz. Click here to read…

OPEC chief calls for pause in climate talks

Global oil producers should invest much more in the industry to meet the world’s future energy needs, the secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Feb 12. Speaking at the Egypt Petroleum Show, Haitham Al-Ghais of Kuwait said climate policies need to be more “balanced and fair.” His comments follow a major shift among countries and energy corporations, on moving away from fossil fuels. “It is imperative that all parties involved in the ongoing climate negotiations pause for a moment; look at the big picture,” Al-Ghais said. He called for joint efforts “towards an energy transition that is orderly, inclusive and helps ensure energy security for all.” Global prices of oil, natural gas and coal soared last year following the Ukraine-related sanctions imposed by Western powers on Russia, one of the world’s biggest producers and exporters of crude and petroleum products. In March 2022, the industry’s main global benchmark – Brent – topped $133 per barrel, surging by over $50 from the start of that year, to reach its highest level since June 2008. Prices then eased, and ended the year at around the same level they started. However, on a yearly basis, oil is being traded 43% higher than in 2021. According to Al-Ghais, the global oil industry needs up to $500 billion of investment annually through 2045, as it has been “plagued by several years of chronic underinvestment.” Click here to read…

Iran’s Raisi leads large delegation in first state visit to China

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has arrived in Beijing accompanied by a large delegation for a three-day trip to China aimed at boosting economic and bilateral ties. The trip is Raisi’s first state visit to the Asian economic giant and the first by an Iranian president in 20 years, according to Iranian state media. Raisi and Xi had first met as presidents on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan in September. China had supported Iran’s now-successful bid to become a full member of the organisation. The Iranian president, who assumed office in August 2021, is accompanied by a wide-ranging team, including the new central bank governor, pointing to his priorities during the trip. Six members of Raisi’s cabinet, including ministers of economy, petroleum, foreign affairs, trade, transport and urban development, and agriculture are also part of the delegation. An op-ed by Raisi was published on Feb 13 in a leading Chinese publication, in which he welcomed expanding bilateral ties. Raisi will hold a meeting with Xi, followed by negotiations between delegations that are expected to lead to the signing of several agreements in the presence of the presidents. Click here to read…

China laid more than 1,400 national security charges since 2018, top prosecutor’s office reveals in a first

More than 1,400 charges related to endangering state security were laid in the last five years, China’s top prosecutorial agency said on Feb 15, offering a rare glimpse into the scale of such indictments. Past disclosures by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP) only provided the total number of criminal indictments, with no specific data offered on state security charges – which usually relate to the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts against espionage and subversion, with trials mostly held behind closed doors. Preventing and identifying acts that endanger national and public security was the top priority of prosecutors, SPP deputy director Sun Qian said in announcing the case data for 2018-2022. Another 435,000 cases relating to endangering public security were tried in the same period, he added. “In terms of prosecutions against endangering national security and public security, [the prosecutors aim to] severely punish crimes of infiltration, subversion and secession and we focus on enhancing our ability to prevent and spot these crimes,” Sun said in Beijing. However, the percentage of those indicted of such crimes remained relatively low, he clarified. Defendants charged with endangering national security made up just 0.03 per cent of total criminal indictments in the past five years, Sun said. Those charged with endangering public security represented 6.3 per cent. Click here to read…

Olympics row deepens as 35 nations demand ban for Russia, Belarus

A group of 35 countries including the United States, Germany and Australia will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics, the Lithuanian sports minister said on Feb 10, deepening the uncertainty over the Paris Games. The move cranks up the pressure on the International Olympic Committee, which is desperate to avoid the sporting event being torn asunder by the bloody conflict unfolding in Ukraine. “We are going in the direction that we would not need a boycott because all countries are unanimous,” Jurgita Siugzdiniene said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the online meeting attended by 35 ministers to discuss the call for the ban, pointing out that 228 Ukrainian athletes and coaches died as a result of the Russian aggression. “If there’s an Olympic sport with killings and missile strikes, you know which national team would take the first place,” he told the ministers. “Terror and Olympism are two opposites, they cannot be combined.” British sports minister Lucy Frazer said on Twitter that the meeting was very productive. “I made the U.K.’s position very clear: As long as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin continues his barbaric war, Russia and Belarus must not be represented at the Olympics,” she wrote. Lee Satterfield, assistant secretary of state who leads the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, also participated in the meeting. Click here to read…

Health

Amid cholera outbreak, health fears grow in quake-hit Syria

Aid groups and public health experts warn that a series of devastating earthquakes could exacerbate a cholera outbreak in Syria first detected last year. The warnings come as rescue operations ceased in both opposition and government-held portions of Syria – and hope diminished amid remaining searches in Turkey – six days after a series of quakes hit the region. As of Feb 12, the death toll topped 35,000 in the two countries, with at least 4,500 dead in Syria. Across war-torn Syria, where the UN has estimated that 5.3 million people have been left homeless by the disaster, “there was a perfect storm brewing before the earthquake – of increasing food insecurity, collapsing healthcare systems, the lack of access to safe water and poor sanitation”, said Eva Hines, chief of communications for the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in the Syrian capital, Damascus. “More than half of people in Syria depend on unsafe alternative water sources when it comes to their water needs. And that, of course, increases vulnerability to fast-spreading waterborne diseases such as cholera,” Hines told Al Jazeera. In September last year, the Syrian government declared an outbreak of cholera – a diarrhoeal infection caused by ingesting food or water contaminated by the Vibrio cholerae bacteria. The disease can prove deadly, particularly for children. Click here to read…

Equatorial Guinea confirms first Marburg virus disease outbreak

Equatorial Guinea has confirmed its first outbreak of the Marburg virus, a highly infectious and deadly disease similar to Ebola, following the deaths of at least nine people, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Feb 13. The small Central African country quarantined more than 200 people and restricted movement last week in its Kie-Ntem province after detecting an unknown haemorrhagic fever. Neighbouring Cameroon also restricted movement along its border over concerns about contagion. “Thanks to the rapid and decisive action by the Equatorial Guinean authorities in confirming the disease, emergency response can get to full steam quickly,” Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa, said in the statement on Feb 13. In addition to the nine deaths, Equatorial Guinea has reported 16 suspected cases of Marburg virus with symptoms including fever, fatigue and blood-stained vomit and diarrhoea, WHO said. Marburg virus disease can have a death rate of up to 88 percent, according to WHO. There are no vaccines or antiviral treatments approved to treat it. The deaths have been preliminarily linked to a funeral ceremony in the Kie-Ntem province’s Nsok-Nsomo district, Equatorial Guinea health minister Mitoha Ondo’o Ayekaba said on Feb 10. Click here to read…

Economic

Washington halts licenses for U.S. tech exports to Huawei

The Biden administration has stopped providing U.S. companies with licenses to export to Huawei as it moves toward imposing a total ban on the sale of American technology to the Chinese telecom equipment giant. Several people familiar with the discussions inside the administration said the Commerce Department had notified some companies that it would no longer grant licenses to any group wanting to export American technology to Huawei. The move marks the latest prong in Washington’s campaign to curb the Shenzhen-based tech company, which U.S. security officials believe helps China engage in espionage. Huawei denies any involvement in spying. The Trump administration in 2019 imposed tough restrictions on exporting American technology to Huawei by adding the group to a blacklist called the “entity list.” The move was part of a strategy to crack down on Chinese companies that Washington believed posed a risk to U.S. national security. But the Commerce Department continued to grant export licenses for some companies, including Qualcomm and Intel, to provide Huawei with technology that was not related to high-speed 5G telecom networks. Over the past two years, President Joe Biden has taken an even tougher stance on China than Donald Trump did, particularly in the area of cutting-edge technology. In October, he imposed sweeping restrictions on providing advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to Chinese groups. Click here to read…

New China Rule Threatens to Disrupt U.S. Solar Ambitions

A plan by China to restrict exports of key solar manufacturing technology could delay attempts to build up a domestic solar supply chain in the U.S., industry experts say. China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology are considering adding advanced technology used in the production of ingots and wafers, some of the building blocks of solar panels, to a list of technologies that are subject to export controls. China currently accounts for nearly all of solar ingot and wafer production globally, as well as much of the equipment used in the manufacturing process—especially for the large-scale solar panels that increasingly dominate the market, industry experts say. The proposed change was among dozens of potential revisions to China’s export control list that are intended “to strengthen the management of technology import and export,” according to a Chinese government announcement issued in late December. Beijing has solicited public comment on the proposed change but hasn’t said publicly when it would make a decision. The Chinese commerce and technology regulators didn’t respond to requests for comment. If the plan is adopted, Chinese solar manufacturers would be required to obtain a license from their provincial commerce authorities to export such technologies. “China’s proposed export restraints are Exhibit A on the need to rapidly scale American solar manufacturing,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the U.S. business lobby Solar Energy Industries Association. Click here to read…

Gold snatched up by central banks at fastest pace in 55 years

Gold buying by central banks reached its highest level in 55 years, data released Jan 31 shows, as the freezing of Russia’s dollar assets spurred countries to seek alternatives less vulnerable to economic sanctions. Net purchases of the metal by central banks in 2022 totaled 1,135 tonnes in 2022, according to a report from the World Gold Council, an industry group. This was the highest since 1967, when European banks bought gold en masse as U.S. deficits and the devaluation of the British pound began to undermine the link between gold and the dollar. Last year’s buying spree is believed to have been sparked by sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow’s clash with the West “drove home the point that assets from the ‘Western’ economic sphere, like dollars, are risky to hold,” said financial and precious metals analyst Koichiro Kamei. China was the standout buyer. The year brought its first reported increase in gold reserves in three years, with a total of 62 tonnes added in November and December. Its actual purchases may have been even larger, given the roughly 20% drop in its holdings of U.S. debt over the year through November. This came as Beijing has taken steps to move away from the dollar, including buying oil in yuan. Other central banks that made major gold purchases include inflation-hit Turkey with 148 tonnes; India with 33 tonnes; Qatar with 35 tonnes; and Uzbekistan with 34 tonnes. Click here to read…

China plans industrial zones to lure Chinese diaspora in Asia

China will establish two industrial zones in Fujian province designed to bring in businesses owned by ethnic Chinese entrepreneurs living in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fujian’s capital, Fuzhou, will host a China-Indonesia joint demonstration zone for innovation, according to a notice released by the State Council, China’s cabinet. The city of Zhangzhou, also in Fujian, will house the China-Philippines joint demonstration zone. The government approved applications for the industrial zones submitted by the Commerce Ministry and Fujian’s provincial government. The zones are intended to bolster economic ties with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and help build a supply chain immune to U.S. sanctions. Specifically, companies established by ethnic Chinese will receive support involving customs, financing and securing land, officials say. Southeast Asia is home to many businesspeople who trace their ethnic roots to China. Fujian, on the southeastern coast of China facing Taiwan, is near Southeast Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping held leadership roles in Fujian during his 30s and 40s. During that formative stint, the Tiananmen Square crackdown occurred in 1989, which soured relations with Japan and Western countries. Xi responded by leading an economic recovery in Fujian centered on investment from diaspora Chinese companies based in Indonesia and other countries. As president, Xi has promoted people who worked under him during his time in Fujian. This “Fujian faction” has been instrumental in achieving the industrial zones initiative. Click here to read…

Vietnam’s energy plan delayed for 2 years, risking blackouts

Vietnam’s government is more than two years behind schedule on deciding a 10-year energy plan through 2030, as skyrocketing costs of liquefied natural gas leave officials scrambling for an affordable path to carbon neutrality. “I didn’t think it would be delayed this much,” said an employee of a foreign power-related company, summoning up the sentiment among expats here. The energy plan needed to be approved by the end of 2020, but more than two years into the new decade, officials are still at odds over the correct strategy. Vietnam implements economic policies based on plans decided by the government or the Communist Party. As a general rule, authorities do not allow companies to make necessary investments for a plan until it is approved. Planned investments in power facilities, originally slated for completion in 2020, have been delayed, resulting in blackouts in Hanoi and other areas during a heat wave in 2022. The challenge for the government is to find a way to move the country away from fossil fuels while keeping power prices low. Electricity demand has increased by around 10% a year on the back of high economic growth. Demand is expected to double from the current level by 2030 and quintuple by 2050. While the plan was already being delayed due to change in leadership, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh threw a wrench in the discussions by promising to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 at the COP26 U.N. climate conference in 2021. Click here to read…

Europe’s Answer to Biden’s Climate Bill Is Still Murky Green

The European Union says the era of cheap fossil fuels is over and that a subsidy race has begun in green energy. But its plan to join the fray isn’t as decisive as Washington’s. On Feb 01, the European Commission launched its Green Deal Industrial Plan, a hotly anticipated response to the $369 billion of clean-energy funding in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The law, itself a response to Chinese industrial policy, provides generous tax breaks that should stimulate local manufacturing of green-energy technology and build out domestic infrastructure for renewables. Politicians in Europe are nervous that the handouts will lure companies stateside. Brussels also doesn’t want to miss out on a slice of the growing net-zero technology industry, which may be worth $650 billion a year at the end of the decade, more than three times its current size. Add the war in Ukraine and it seems more critical than ever for Europe to keep green-energy champions at home so it can wean itself off fossil fuels. But it isn’t clear yet that the new plan can match what is on offer in America. The Commission will loosen state aid rules that make it hard for governments to hand out subsidies. For now, there are several pots of cash available to fund the energy transition, including close to €270 billion ($293.4 billion) of unused Covid recovery funds. Click here to read…

35% of goods may not get delivered in Japan in 2030

Japan is headed for a crisis in the distribution of freight across the country due to a projected shortage of truck drivers brought about by revised regulations on the number of hours they can work. Nomura Research Institute Ltd. said Jan. 19 that as much as 35 percent of all freight across Japan will not be shipped in 2030. It estimated that the ratio of undeliverable cargo will be especially acute in the northeastern Tohoku region, as well as Shikoku and other non-urban regions, due to what is being labeled as the 2024 issue. This refers to revised working regulations for truck drivers that will take effect in April next year that will place a further cap on their operating hours. The move is expected to trigger a serious labor crunch in the industry. The institute suggested that delivery fees in certain areas will increase dramatically, and in some cases, match those set for remote islands unless improvements are made in transport efficiency. It projected the potential effect on freight distribution due to tightened restrictions based on the anticipated volume of goods to be shipped in the future. The outcomes suggested the undeliverable cargo rate will be highest in Tohoku at 41 percent, followed by Shikoku at 40 percent. In Hokkaido and Kyushu, 39 percent of goods will probably fail to reach their destinations, it said. Click here to read…

Russia continues to boost forex reserves

Russian foreign exchange reserves surged by $3.1 billion last week, the Bank of Russia revealed on Feb 02. The holdings amounted to $597.7 billion, having increased by 0.5% during the week ending January 27, driven by a positive revaluation of currencies, the central bank reported in its regular update. As of January 20, Russia’s forex reserves totaled $594.6 billion. Russia’s international reserves, which are highly liquid foreign assets held by the Bank of Russia and the country’s government, consist of monetary gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDR) with the IMF, and foreign currency held within the country. Roughly half of the holdings were frozen by Western central banks in early March as part of anti-Russia sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. In addition to freezing the funds, Western countries banned operations related to their management. The remaining holdings consist of gold and foreign currency held within the country, as well as Chinese yuan assets. Prior to the conflict, Russia’s forex reserves had reached a historical high of $643.2 billion. Click here to read…

Russian Urals Traded At $49.48 in January, But The Kremlin Isn’t Worried

Russian Urals crude traded at $49.48 per barrel in January, with rising transportation costs compounding a discount that has seen the country’s flagship crude price drop by 42% year-on-year, according to Russian Finance Ministry figures cited by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency. Official figures released on Feb 01 showed a drastic decline from $85.64 in January 2021 to this year’s price of under $49.5 per barrel, Anadolu Agency reported. While slightly different from the Russian Finance Ministry figures, Platts (part of S&P Global Commodity Insights) on January 30th assessed Russian Urals at $45.86 per barrel, which at the time represented a discount to Dated Brent of $38.77. S&P Global notes that prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Urals was trading at a ~$10 discount to Dated Brent. Western sanctions, including an EU ban on Russian seaborne crude, which went into effect on December 5th, and a G7 price cap of $60 on Russian oil imports has resulted in a redirection of trade in Urals, mostly to India and China. On Feb 01, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Russian media that the country’s oil production and export situation remained stable despite Western attempts to derail oil revenues. Novak said the Urals price was acceptable. Click here to read…

Libyan Oil Ministry Rejects $8 Billion Gas Deal With Eni

Libya’s Oil Ministry has rejected the huge $8-billion deal that the Italian energy giant signed with the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) this weekend, saying that the agreement violated legislation and was not approved by the ministry prior to the signing. Eni’s chief executive Claudio Descalzi and the CEO of the National Oil Corporation of Libya, Farhat Bengdara, agreed on Jan 28 on the development of “Structures A&E”, a strategic project aimed at increasing gas production to supply the Libyan domestic market as well as to ensure export to Europe. The agreement was signed in the presence of the Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, and the Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Unity, Abdul Hamid Al-Dbeibah. Under the deal, the combined gas production from the two structures will start in 2026 and reach a plateau of 750 million standard gas cubic feet per day, Eni said in a statement. The overall investment is estimated at $8 billion, with a significant impact on the industry and the associated supply chain, allowing a significant contribution to the Libyan economy, the Italian group said. However, Mohamed Aoun, Libya’s Oil and Gas Minister in the Tripoli-based government led by Al-Dbeibah, rejected the deal because, he says, it bypassed his oil ministry and cabinet approval and changed a previous deal signed in 2008. Aoun and his supporter Fathi Bashagha, the rival eastern-based prime minister appointed by Libya’s Parliament, have now rejected the deal. Click here to read…

Here’s Why Qatar Is about to make a Big Move on Iraqi Oil & Gas

Prior to the unwitting boost that Russia’s ongoing failure in Ukraine has given the U.S., NATO, and Europe, Washington’s intentions regarding Iraq were mixed. On the one hand, the reasons why the U.S. invaded Iraq – to secure oil supplies that would lessen its reliance on Saudi Arabia, to control the centre ground in the Middle East, and to counteract Iran’s growing influence in Iraq and in the region – still stood. On the other, though, it had long been clear in Iraq, Afghanistan and indeed Saudi Arabia, among many others, that Islamic countries did not want an ongoing Western Christian presence in their countries. It may be that Qatar’s move to buy a 30 percent stake in four US$27 billion projects in Iraq that were set to be managed entirely by France’s TotalEnergies are in line with the U.S.’s new strategy for Baghdad. The four projects are essential to Iraq’s future as a truly independent country. The first of them is the completion of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP), which remains crucial in enabling Iraq to reach crude oil production targets of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), then 9 million bpd and perhaps even 12 million bpd, as anahttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Heres-Why-Qatar-Is-About-To-Make-A-Big-Move-On-Iraqi-Oil-Gas.htmllysed in depth in my last book on the global oil markets. Click here to read…

Big Labor Can’t Quit Shrinking

Union members made up only 10.1% of the workforce last year, down from 10.3% in 2021, according to data released recently by the Labor Department. For a long time the prototypical union shop hasn’t been a private steel plant but a public school, yet the unionized share of government employees also fell. Though the annual changes look small, they add up: The workforce in 2012 was 11.3% unionized, and in 2002 it was 13.3%. Organized labor hasn’t been able to stop the trend, despite frantic unionization drives, including many aimed at nontraditional members, such as the university graduate students who march under the United Auto Workers banner. Private workers are 6% unionized, down from 8.6% two decades ago. For public workers, it’s 33.1%, down from 37.3%. Some of this has to do with improvements in public policy. More states have passed right-to-work laws, guaranteeing their residents the ability to choose freely whether to belong to unions. The Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling in Janus v. Afscme said that public workers who opt out can’t be billed union fees anyway. This has reduced the incentive for reluctant workers to go along and get along, since real money from their paychecks is on the line. Click here to read…

US Fed unveils smaller rate hike but signals inflation fight not over

America’s Federal Reserve slowed its pace of interest rate hikes Feb 01, tempering an aggressive campaign to rein in costs as inflation cools while signaling the battle is not yet over. The U.S. central bank announced a quarter-point hike to the benchmark lending rate at the end of its two-day policy meeting, taking the rate to a target range of 4.50-4.75 percent. “Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” said the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in a statement. Officials will need “substantially more evidence” to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a press briefing. According to the FOMC statement, “the committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” to bring inflation back to policymakers’ two percent target over time. The Fed has cranked up interest rates eight times since March 2022, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point increases, lifting borrowing costs in hopes of dampening demand. The aim is to rein in inflation, which surged to its fastest pace in decades last year but has since come off a peak. On Feb 01, the Fed acknowledged that recent indicators “point to modest growth in spending and production” as economic activity eases. The 0.25 percentage point rise marks a step down from December’s half-point hike and the series of bigger spikes last year. But the FOMC statement suggests that rate increases will continue. Click here to read…

‘Made in China’ is not enough, Beijing says, vowing ‘substantial improvement’ in quality of goods

China has rolled out comprehensive guidelines to build itself into a world power of quality products and services, in its latest bid to cement its footing in the global supply chain. The world’s second-largest economy is aiming to become a leader in high-value goods as it shifts focus towards quality of growth in a new era of “technological revolution and deepening industrial transformation” across the globe, according to a directive issued by the State Council on Jan 06. The broad but vaguely worded plan says the country aspires to see “substantial improvement” in the quality of what it produces, and in the influence of Chinese brands, by 2025. And by 2035, good quality should be seen as a cultural value in China, it said. Conceding that overall quality levels “still lag behind economic and social development”, the State Council said China “must base its growth on the improvement of quality and efficiency”. Therefore, changes are in order – “from made-in-China to made-by-China, from Chinese speed to Chinese quality, and from Chinese products to Chinese brands”. Chinese leadership and prominent economists have repeatedly stressed in recent years the importance of redefining China as a high-end manufacturing power in the face of growing economic and tech containment from the US and its allies. President Xi Jinping first brought up the notion of building China into a “quality power” in his report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party in 2017. Click here to read…

Stymied by the West, Russia is getting critical semiconductors from mainland China, Hong Kong

Russia boosted its trade with mainland China and Hong Kong last year as Moscow made a tactical pivot to the two markets for chip imports while diversifying away from allies of the United States amid sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, according to a US-based trade group for the global financial services industry. China, Hong Kong and Turkey have supplanted countries in the European Union as Russia’s top trading partners, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Feb 01. As the war in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, the resulting shock waves continue to ripple through global markets for commodities, energy and food, and the world’s supply chain has seen a drastic realignment. Washington and its allies have responded to Russia’s aggression by imposing sweeping restrictions to block its access to advanced semiconductors, aerospace products and luxury goods since last year. “Russian authorities countered sanctions with swift macroeconomic measures preventing a financial sector collapse, increasing government spending and limiting access to statistics, including trade,” the IIF said. “Importantly, Russia focused on rebuilding value chains severed by sanctions.” Despite export controls, Russia has increased imports of semiconductors and electronic circuits, with purchases totalling US$2.45 billion between January and September 2022 – up from US$1.8 billion a year earlier, the IIF said. Click here to read…

Strategic

Major earthquakes kill thousands of people in Turkey and Syria

Powerful earthquakes and aftershocks killed thousands of people and injured thousands more in Turkey and Syria, triggering frantic searches for survivors in the rubble of collapsed buildings. An initial magnitude 7.8 earthquake hit near the southeastern Turkish city of Gaziantep at 4:17am local time (01:17 GMT) on Feb 06, as people were sleeping, at a depth of about 17.9km (11 miles). It was also felt as far as Cyprus, Egypt and Lebanon. There were fears the death toll would rise significantly. The Turkish government has declared a level 4 state of emergency, which includes a call for international assistance as well as the mobilisation of all national forces. Rescuers used heavy equipment and their bare hands to peel back rubble in search of survivors, who they could in some cases hear begging for help under the debris. The rescue was being hampered by a winter blizzard that covered major roads in ice and snow. Turkish officials said the quake made three major airports in the area inoperable, further complicating deliveries of vital aid. Authorities urged people not to enter damaged buildings due to the risks.“Our priority is to bring out people trapped under ruined buildings and to transfer them to hospitals,” Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said. Videos shared on social media showed harrowing images of buildings reduced to piles of rubble in several cities in Turkey’s southeast. Click here to read…

Blinken postpones China trip over spy balloon incident

The U.S. has postponed Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned trip to Beijing, the State Department said Feb 03, after what Washington called a Chinese surveillance balloon was detected in American airspace. The State Department revealed in a statement that Blinken told Wang Yi, director of the Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Office, that he would not go to China as planned. Blinken said that “in light of this ongoing issue, it would not be appropriate to visit Beijing at this time,” according to the statement. The statement said that Blinken noted Beijing’s statement of regret regarding the balloon but “conveyed that this is an irresponsible act and a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law that undermined the purpose of the trip.” Blinken, later at a news conference, mentioned his talk with Wang and said China’s “decision to take this action on the eve of my planned visit is detrimental to the substantive discussions that we were prepared to have.” He added, “I plan to visit Beijing when conditions allow.” Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said that the balloon is a “civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes” and that the Chinese side “regrets the unintended entry of the airship into U.S. airspace.” Click here to read…

US gets access to 4 more Philippine bases amid China military moves

The United States and the Philippines announced a deal on Feb 02 to give US troops access to another four bases in the Southeast Asian nation, as the long-time allies seek to counter China’s military rise. The agreement to expand cooperation in “strategic areas of the country” was made during a visit by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. It comes as the countries seek to repair ties that were fractured in recent years — previous Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte favoured China over his country’s former colonial master, but the new administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has been keen to reverse that. Beijing’s growing assertiveness on Taiwan and its claims over the disputed South China Sea have given fresh impetus to Washington and Manila to strengthen their partnership. Given its proximity to Taiwan and its surrounding waters, the Philippines’ cooperation would be key in the event of a conflict with China, which a four-star US Air Force general has warned could happen as early as 2025. “The Philippines and the United States are proud to announce their plans to accelerate the full implementation of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the agreement to designate four new Agreed Locations in strategic areas of the country,” defence officials said in a joint statement. Talks were ongoing for a potential fifth base, a senior Philippine official said earlier. Click here to read…

US test launches unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile

An unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from California last week to test America’s defense system, according to the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command. The Minuteman III missile lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base at 11:01 p.m. Feb 02 and its reentry vehicle traveled about 4,200 miles (6,800 kilometers) over the Pacific Ocean to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands, an Air Force statement said. While the test occurred amid U.S. concerns about North Korea’s missile tests and the transit of a Chinese spy balloon across the United States, the Air Force said the launch was routine. ”Such tests have occurred over 300 times before, and this test is not the result of current world events,” the statement said. The Minuteman III system has been in service for decades. The Air Force plans to replace it with a new missile called the Sentinel. ”Until full capability is achieved in the mid-2030s, the Air Force is committed to ensuring Minuteman III remains a viable deterrent,” the service said. Click here to read…

Chinese military announces YJ-21 missile abilities in social media post read as warning to US amid tension in Taiwan Strait

For the first time, the PLA has officially revealed the performance of its advanced anti-ship hypersonic missile, sending a warning to the US amid high tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese analysts said. China’s YJ-21, or Eagle Strike-21, has a terminal speed of Mach 10, cannot be intercepted by any anti-missile weapons system in the world and can launch lethal strikes towards enemy ships, according to an article posted by the official Weibo account of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force on Jan 30. The public debut of the missile at a leading air show in November shows that “the Chinese navy has begun to establish a more destructive combat system in the offshore defence system, which has brought its denial combat capability to a higher level”, the article reads. The PLA navy released video footage of the YJ-21 being launched in April from a Type 055, the People’s Liberation Army’s largest and most advanced destroyer. The article declares that the missile travels six times the speed of sound all the way, and has a terminal speed of 10 times the speed of sound, meaning a speed of 3,400 metres per second (11,155 feet per second) when it hits the target. “Such a terminal speed cannot be intercepted by any anti-missile weapon system at this stage. Even if it is dropped directly at this terrifying speed [hitting the target] without an explosion it will cause a fatal strike to the enemy ship,” the article stated. Click here to read…

Myanmar extends state of emergency, likely pushing back polls

Myanmar’s military regime on Feb 01 announced that it will extend the nationwide state of emergency for another six months, likely delaying general elections that had been expected by August. The announcement, made public through a report from state-owned media, came a day after the National Defense and Security Council, consisting of senior members of the military and government, met in the capital, Naypyitaw, and issued a statement blaming pro-democracy, anti-military groups that are “committing killings of innocent people, blowing up public places, imposing armed intimidation and coercion on the people.” The groups, it said, include the National Unity Government, the parallel government formed by exiled lawmakers and others who declared armed resistance in September 2021. A state-owned TV network also reported Feb 01 that the decision was made at the meeting on Jan 31, where Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing himself said that time would be needed to restore public order for the polls. It also said that the constitutional court had judged that “the extension of the state of emergency is constitutional.” Min Aung Hlaing reportedly recommended the extension for two reasons: The general election must be held in at least half of all electoral districts, and the review of voter rolls must be completed. Click here to read…

U.S. to increase weapons deployment to counter North Korea

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Jan 31 said the United States will increase its deployment of advanced weapons such as fighter jets and bombers to the Korean Peninsula as it strengthens joint training and operational planning with South Korea in response to a growing North Korean nuclear threat. Austin made the comments in Seoul after he and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-Sup agreed to further expand their combined military exercises, including a resumption of live-fire demonstrations, and continue a “timely and coordinated” deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the region, according to their offices. Austin and Lee also discussed preparations for a simulated exercise between the allies in February aimed at sharpening their response if North Korea uses nuclear weapons. Austin’s trip comes as South Korea seeks stronger assurances that the United States will swiftly and decisively use its nuclear capabilities to protect its ally in face of a North Korean nuclear attack. South Korea’s security jitters have risen since North Korea test-fired dozens of missiles in 2022, including potentially nuclear-capable ones designed to strike targets in South Korea and the U.S. mainland. South Korea and the United States have also been strengthening their security cooperation with Japan, which has included trilateral missile defense and anti-submarine warfare exercises in past months amid the provocative run in North Korean weapons tests. Click here to read…

Japan, China agree to hold talks ‘at all levels’ to improve ties

The foreign ministers of Japan and China agreed Feb 02 that the two nations will maintain close communication “at all levels,” the Japanese government said, as they have been exploring how to mend bilateral ties that often become tense. Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi also aired “serious concern” over intensifying Chinese military activities near Japan, including those with Russia, during 50-minute phone talks with his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang, adding that Japanese public opinion on Beijing is “extremely severe,” according to the Foreign Ministry. It was the first conversation between the two foreign ministers since Qin, a former ambassador to the United States, took the post in late December, succeeding Wang Yi. Hayashi and Qin pledged to work together toward the realization of “constructive and stable relations,” the ministry said, at a time when the bilateral relationship remains precarious over issues such as the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The Tokyo-controlled, Beijing-claimed uninhabited islets are called Diaoyu by China. The Japanese minister underscored “the importance of peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait” while requesting that China soon lift its import ban on Japanese food items imposed after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear crisis, the ministry said. Qin said he hopes that the Japanese side will be “cautious” in its words and deeds regarding major issues such as bilateral history and Taiwan, and stop provocations by right-wing forces on the issue of Diaoyu, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Click here to read…

NATO chief wants more ‘friends’ as Russia, China move closer

China’s growing assertiveness and collaboration with Russia poses a threat not only to Asia but also to Europe, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Feb 01 as he sought stronger cooperation and more “friends” for NATO in the Indo-Pacific region. Stoltenberg said China is increasingly investing in nuclear weapons and long-range missiles without providing transparency or engaging in meaningful dialogue on arms control for atomic weapons, while escalating coercion of its neighbors and threats against Taiwan, the self-ruled island it claims as its own territory. “The fact that Russia and China are coming closer and the significant investments by China and new advanced military capabilities just underlines that China poses a threat, poses a challenge also to NATO allies,” Stoltenberg told an audience at Keio University in Tokyo. “Security is not regional but global.” “NATO needs to make sure we have friends,” he said. “It is important to work more closely with our partners in the Indo-Pacific.” China is increasingly working with Russia and they lead an “authoritarian pushback” against the rules-based, open and democratic international order, he said. Stoltenberg said NATO does not regard China as an adversary or seek confrontation, and that the alliance will continue to engage with China in areas of common interest, such as climate change. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning defended China as “a force for regional and global peace and stability” and criticized NATO for labeling China a threat and for expanding its military ties to Asia. Click here to read…

Pakistan Suicide Bombing Death Toll Rises to at Least 100

The death toll in a suicide bombing in northwestern Pakistan climbed to at least 100 on Jan 31 as rescuers pulled bodies out of the rubble of a mosque hit by one of the country’s deadliest terrorist attacks. Emergency crews worked through the night to pull the dead and injured from the debris of the mosque in a large police compound in the city of Peshawar. The compound included police offices and housing. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah Khan said that 97 of the dead were police personnel, along with three civilians. In addition, 220 people were injured, of which 27 were in critical condition, he said. Moazzam Jah Ansari, the provincial police chief, said he believed the attack was carried out by a faction of the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP. The Pakistani Taliban, which is separate from the Afghan Taliban, has unleashed a renewed campaign of violence since late November, when peace talks with the Pakistani authorities broke down. Jan 30’s attack was by far the deadliest in the current spree of attacks. The Pakistani Taliban, formed in 2007 under the influence of al Qaeda, denied authorizing Jan 30’s attack, but a faction of the group claimed responsibility on Twitter. The group has focused in recent years on attacking police and military personnel, rather than the mass casualty civilian bombings that marked its earlier years. Click here to read…

Fears of Losing Out to China Put U.S. Under Pressure Over Kenya Base

Kenya is asking the U.S. to pay for the expansion of a joint counterterrorism base, raising concerns in Washington that the East African country could turn to China if the Americans balk, according to U.S. officials. The Kenyan military has drawn up plans for a new runway long enough to handle jet fighters at Manda Bay Airfield, a hub for U.S. and Kenyan operations against al-Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in neighboring Somalia, the U.S. officials said. American officials left talks with the Kenyans worried that they might bring a state-owned Chinese construction firm into a U.S. special-operations base if the Pentagon opts out of the project, which could cost roughly $50 million, including support buildings. “Will they be watching what we do?” a senior U.S. military official said of the Chinese workers. “It poses a strategic dilemma for us.” The Biden administration has so far resisted Kenya’s request that the U.S. pick up the bill for the upgrade, but the issue isn’t settled. U.S. service members in Manda Bay. Kenya’s aspirations for the facility could mark a new skirmish in U.S.-Chinese competition for influence in Africa. Kenya is a key U.S. ally in one of the longest wars in American history, the 16-year, low-visibility campaign against al-Shabaab, which the U.S. military considers al Qaeda’s most-active franchise worldwide. Some 3,000 Kenyan troops are part of an 18,500-strong African Union force fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia. Click here to read…

Somalia hosts regional summit to discuss fighting al-Shabab

Somalia is hosting a summit of leaders from several neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa to discuss the fight against al-Shabab, as a wide-ranging offensive against the armed group gathers pace. The meeting in the capital, Mogadishu, drew leaders from three “brotherly neighbouring countries”, the Somali presidency said, posting pictures of the arrival of Kenya’s William Ruto, Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Somali leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his counterparts are due to discuss a coordinated military offensive against the al-Qaeda-linked group, which has been waging a fight in the Horn of Africa nation for more than 15 years. Security was beefed up in the city with movement restrictions and military patrols. Commercial flights have also been suspended. “The major roads and streets in the city are closed today and there is no civilian movement allowed,” Abdulahi Hassan, a member of the national security agency, told AFP news agency. The armed group earlier this month claimed responsibility for the deadly bombing and storming of a government building in Mogadishu that injured 16 people. Six members of the group were killed by security forces. After taking office in May last year, Mohamud declared an “all-out war” on the fighters, rallying Somalis to help flush out members of the armed group he described as “bedbugs”. In recent months, the army and local clan militias have retaken chunks of territory in an operation backed by US air raids and an African Union (AU) force known as ATMIS. Click here to read…

The U.S. Is Facing A Major Challenge As Petrodollar Loses Force

On January 17, the Saudi minister of finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, announced that the Saudi state is open to selling oil in currencies other than the dollar. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV. If the Saudi regime does indeed embrace substantial trade in currencies other than the dollar as part of its oil-export business, this would signal a shift away from the dollar as the dominant currency in global oil payments. Or measured another way, this would signal the end of the so-called petrodollar. But how large of a shift is this? With the increasingly frequent Saudi comments about trading in nondollar currencies, we’ve also seen an increasing number of pundits announcing the “collapse” of the dollar or the imminent implosion of the dollar’s currently outsized global power. Will a shift away from the dollar in the global oil trade really lead to a big relative decline in the dollar? Probably and eventually. But a number of other dominoes would need to fall first, most especially the domino we call “Eurodollars.” On the other hand, it would be foolish to simply dismiss the potential end of the Saudi preference for the dollar with hand-waving. Click here to read…

Why is Pope Francis visiting DRC and South Sudan?

Pope Francis is visiting the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan this week to deliver a message of peace and reconciliation to two countries hit by conflict. The pontiff will start his trip on Jan 31 in the Congolese capital Kinshasa, where he will stay until Feb 03 before heading to Juba, the capital of South Sudan. The leaders of the Anglican Church and the Church of Scotland will join the pope on the second leg of the trip. The six-day trip was originally planned for July 2022 but was postponed after Francis suffered problems with his knee, which have recently forced him to use a wheelchair. The trip will be Francis’s 40th abroad since he was elected the head of the Catholic Church in 2013. It will be his fifth visit to Africa. Why is the pope visiting the DRC? The Vatican’s envoy to the Democratic Republic of the Congo has said the trip will remind the world not to ignore decades-long conflicts. For years, the Central African country has struggled with instability and poverty despite its vast mineral wealth. “Congo also embodies social injustice, the scandal of underdevelopment and poverty,” said Samuel Pommeret from the nongovernmental organisation CCFD-Terre Solidaire. It has been a battleground for more than 100 armed groups fighting for control of territory there or using it as a base to launch attacks into some of the DRC’s neighbours, such as Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Rwanda and Uganda. Click here to read…

Erdogan says Turkey may accept Finland in NATO, but block Sweden

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signalled that Ankara could accept Finland into NATO before taking any action on the membership of its Nordic neighbour Sweden. Erdogan was speaking just days after Ankara suspended NATO accession talks with the two countries after a protest in Stockholm in which a far-right politician burned a copy of the Quran. “We may deliver Finland a different message [on their NATO application] and Sweden would be shocked when they see our message. But Finland should not make the same mistake Sweden did,” Erdogan said in a televised speech aired on Jan 29. Sweden and Finland applied last year to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, dropping their longstanding military nonalignment. Every member of the 30-nation alliance needs to approve their membership, and Turkey and Hungary are the only countries yet to have done so. The Hungarian parliament is expected to approve the bids in February. Erdogan’s main complaint has been with Sweden’s refusal to extradite dozens of people that Ankara has linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and a failed 2016 coup attempt. He is facing an election in May and has dug in his heels over Sweden’s NATO membership as he tries to energise his conservative and nationalist supporters. Click here to read…

Health

COVID still emergency but nearing ‘inflection’ point: WHO

The coronavirus remains a global health emergency, the World Health Organization chief said Jan 30, after a key advisory panel found the pandemic may be nearing an “inflexion point” where higher levels of immunity can lower virus-related deaths. Speaking at the opening of WHO’s annual executive board meeting, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said “there is no doubt that we’re in a far better situation now” than a year ago ― when the highly transmissible Omicron variant was at its peak. But Tedros warned that in the last eight weeks, at least 170,000 people have died around the world in connection with the coronavirus. He called for at-risk groups to be fully vaccinated, an increase in testing and early use of antivirals, an expansion of lab networks, and a fight against “misinformation” about the pandemic. “We remain hopeful that in the coming year, the world will transition to a new phase in which we reduce hospitalizations and deaths to the lowest possible level,” he said. Tedros’ comments came moments after WHO released findings of its emergency committee on the pandemic which reported that some 13.1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered ― with nearly 90% percent of health workers and more than four in five people over 60 years of age having completed the first series of jabs. Click here to read…

Scientists sound alarm over bird flu mutations

Health officials from Europe and the US are calling for international action to tackle the spread of avian influenza as fears grow that the virus could mutate and spread among humans. A number of mammals have been found to be carrying a mutated version of the pathogen amid the largest ever outbreak of bird flu. The H5N1 virus has already killed some 208 million birds around the world. But the latest figures show there have also been at least 200 recorded cases of mammals contracting the disease. In the UK, the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) reportedly found nine otters and foxes that tested positive for the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus. In the US, the disease was found in skunks, bears, a raccoon and a red fox. In France, the virus had spread to a cat and also caused an outbreak on a Spanish mink farm. The bird flu has also been detected in seals and dolphins. Researchers believe these animals contracted the virus by feeding on dead or sick birds that had been infected with the disease. It’s noted that the virus found in these animals showed signs of a mutation that allowed it to infect mammals more easily. However, scientists say they have not yet seen any evidence to suggest the virus is capable of jumping between mammals. Click here to read…

Economic

China’s debt-based interest payments top a trillion yuan for first time, raising concerns about financial risks

Interest payments on local government debt in China exceeded a trillion yuan for the first time last year as Beijing called for enhanced efforts to steady the economy, and analysts say public debt in the world’s second-largest economy could continue to surge to an all-time high in 2023. Local governments had to pay a total of 1.12 trillion yuan (US$165 billion) in interest on bonds in 2022, up from 928 billion yuan in 2021, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Jan 29. And a total of 3.67 trillion yuan worth of local government bonds will mature in 2023, according to financial data provider Wind. The data, released by the Ministry of Finance, reflects the growing pressure of debt repayment among local governments. But since regional authorities often also borrow heavily off-budget, the overall debt to gross domestic product (GDP) could, in practice, be considerably higher than official data. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio in the third quarter of 2022 rose from 273.1 per cent at the end of the second quarter to 273.9 per cent, or 0.8 percentage points, according to data released last year by the National Institution for Finance and Development.A total of 7.37 trillion yuan worth of local government bonds were issued in 2022, down from 2021’s 7.49 trillion yuan, Ministry of Finance data showed. Click here to read…

US-China clash at WTO, highlighting divisions ahead of Antony Blinken visit

China has stepped up accusations that the United States is breaking trade rules and bullying other countries, signalling potentially tense negotiations when the US Secretary of State visits next month. The criticism was levelled by China’s ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Jan 27, when the Geneva-based organisation reviewed disputes including several cases launched against the US. The rebuke by Li Chenggang shows the division between the world’s two largest economies is still large, despite hopes of a thaw after it was announced that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken would visit China in February, while a team of US Treasury officials led by Janet Yellen could also make a trip to Beijing. At the WTO meeting, Li rebuked the US for its unilateralism, breaking international trade rules and disrupting global supply chains, according to the state-owned Xinhua News Agency. On Jan 30, Xinhua blasted the Biden administration for justifying protectionism with national security laws, adding its WTO appeals would meet a dead end and only trigger “public anger”. The US is the biggest violator of international trade rules, accounting for about two thirds of WTO disputes, Xinhua said, and it was responsible for paralysing the organisation’s dispute settlement mechanism in 2019. Click here to read…

China’s spending on R&D hits 3 trln Yuan in 2022

China’s total expenditure on research and development (R&D) amounted to nearly 3.09 trillion yuan (about 456 billion U.S. dollars) in 2022, up 10.4 percent year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). After deducting price factors, China’s R&D spending in 2022 rose 8 percent year on year, said the NBS. China’s total spending on R&D accounted for 2.55 percent of its gross domestic product last year, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous year. Investment in basic research stood at 195.1 billion yuan last year, up 7.4 percent year on year, accounting for 6.32 percent of the total R&D spending, the data showed. Click here to read…

China says ready to normalize cross-border travel

Beijing said Jan 30 it stands ready to work with all countries to facilitate normal cross-border travel a day after lifting visa issuance restrictions on Japanese citizens that had been imposed in protest of Tokyo’s tighter border controls for travellers from China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a press conference that Beijing is “against politicizing” COVID-19 responses and expressed regret over South Korea’s recent decision to extend its restrictions on issuing short-term visas for travelers from China through Feb. 28.Japan, South Korea and several other countries have strengthened border controls for travellers from China, which reopened its borders and scrapped quarantine measures on Jan. 8, amid fears over widespread COVID-19 infections in the country. On Jan. 10, Beijing halted visa issuances for Japanese and South Korean travellers, criticizing the entry restrictions on visitors from China as “discriminatory.” Mao said Jan 30 that Beijing hopes Seoul “will remove” the policies “as soon as possible.” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno indicated at a news conference in Tokyo on Jan 30 that Japan will keep its stricter border controls targeting those traveling from China for the time being, saying the government will “flexibly” deal with the situation. Click here to read…

U.S. Fightback In the Middle East Continues With Huge Chevron Deal

After an extended period of reduced engagement in the Middle East and a refocusing inwards on itself, which allowed China and Russia to exploit the resultant power vacuum, there have been several signs recently that the U.S. has decided that now is a good time to take up where it left off a few years ago. In the energy sector, there have been several high-profile deals in regions of great geopolitical sensitivity in recent weeks that have been made by U.S. companies or companies of countries alongside the U.S. in its sphere of influence. The latest one is Chevron’s discovery of a potentially huge offshore gas field in Egypt that, according to comments last week, is due to be fast-tracked by Chevron and its partner in the site, Italy’s Eni. Chevron and Eni, which each hold a 45 percent stake in the 1,800 square kilometre (sq.km) Nargis offshore area concession (with Egypt’s Tharwa Petroleum Co. holding the remaining 10 percent stake), announced that they have made a new gas discovery in the concession, focused on the Nargis-1 well. The state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) stated in the past few days that the precise quantity of reserves in the well were being evaluated but that it was working with Chevron, Eni and Tharwa to begin production as soon as possible. Click here to read…

Norway Sees Oil and Gas Tax Revenue Triple to Record $89 Billion

Norway expects to receive a record $89.5 billion (884 billion Norwegian crowns) in oil and gas tax revenue for 2022, triple the previous record in 2021, thanks to soaring gas prices last year, the Norwegian Tax Administration said in an estimate on Jan 26. The administration has revised up its estimates for the petroleum tax revenue by 20% from an earlier projection, and the latest figure implies the oil and gas tax revenue has tripled from the previous record year, 2021. The high natural gas prices drove the record tax revenue from petroleum companies which “have never been anywhere near as high as it is now,” the Norwegian Tax Administration’s director Nina Schanke Funnemark said. In the previous record year of 2021, Norway’s petroleum tax revenue was $30 billion (295 billion crowns), the administration said. Norway, Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, has benefited a lot from the spike in oil and gas prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Most of Norway’s government revenues from oil and gas go into the $1.34 trillion Government Pension Fund Global, commonly known as Norway’s oil fund, which is the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Earlier this week, Norway said it would offer up to 92 new blocks for hydrocarbon exploration in the new round of licensing in mature areas. Click here to read…

Russia becomes Iran’s biggest investor – official

Russia has become Iran’s largest foreign investor, Fars news agency reported on Jan 29, citing the country’s deputy finance minister, Ali Fekri. According to the official, Russia “had brought some $2.7 billion worth of investment to two petroleum projects in Iran’s Western province of Ilam in the past 15 months.” The figure accounts for some 45% of the total foreign investment attracted by Tehran over the period, Fekri noted. The UAE, Afghanistan, Türkiye and China were also among Iran’s biggest investors in the reporting period. However, Fekri noted that Beijing had notably reduced spending in 2022. “China has invested nearly $185 million in Iran over that period, which we are not happy with given the amount of negotiations and meetings we had,” he stated. According to Fekri, Tehran had set a target of $10.2 billion in direct foreign investment for the 15 months to December last year. It failed to reach this goal, having secured only $5.95 billion. Iran and Russia boosted cooperation throughout 2022 in an effort find ways to bypass Western sanctions imposed on both countries. The two nations sealed a number of agreements expanding trade and concluded contracts on the joint construction of gas pipelines. Total trade turnover between Moscow and Tehran surged by 15% last year, reaching $4.6 billion. Click here to read…

Russian electricity exports to Asia surge

Russian energy giant Inter RAO boosted electricity supplies to China and Mongolia to record volumes last year, the company’s CEO Boris Kovalchuk said on Jan 25. Power exports from Russia to the EU were stopped last year. At that time, Inter RAO reported that consumers could not pay the company for the supplied electricity due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia. “We completely stopped commercial supplies [of electricity] to the countries of the European Union starting June 2022. At the same time, we have substantially increased exports to China and Mongolia,” Kovalchuk said at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He added that the company set a “historic maximum” in 2022 for electricity deliveries to these countries. Earlier, Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov stated that power supplies to China and Mongolia saw a significant jump last year. “We can talk about the growth of eastbound [electricity] exports, that is, total exports to China and Mongolia have increased by 20%, and there will be an uptick of about 16% to China by the end of the year,” the minister said. The Russian energy giant supplies electricity to China from the Far Eastern Amur region under a long-term “cash and carry” contract. Click here to read…

U.S. secures deal with Netherlands, Japan on China chip export limit: Bloomberg

The United States has secured a deal with the Netherlands and Japan to restrict exports of some advanced chip-making machinery to China in talks that concluded on Jan 27, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The agreement would extend some export controls the United States adopted in October to companies based in the two allied nations, including ASML Holding, Nikon Corp and Tokyo Electron, the report said. Officials from the Netherlands and Japan were in Washington discussing a wide range of issues in talks led by White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, earlier said the officials were talking about issues that are “important to all three of us.” “And certainly the safety and security of emerging technologies is going to be on that agenda,” he told reporters. A source familiar with the talks said restricting exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China was among the topics. Getting the Netherlands and Japan to impose tighter export controls on China would be a major diplomatic win for U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, which in October announced sweeping restrictions on Beijing’s access to U.S. chip-making technology to slow its technological and military advances. The Dutch foreign ministry and a spokesperson at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry declined to comment. Click here to read…

Memory-Chip Makers Face a Prolonged Price Slump

Memory-chip prices, which dropped steeply over the past year, are expected to keep falling in the first half of 2023, putting more pressure on an industry that has already cut investments and jobs. Average prices for the two main types of memory chips used in everyday electronics—from smartphones to personal computers and TV sets—are projected to experience double-digit percentage declines this quarter, industry analysts say. That comes after prices dropped by more than 20% in the last three months of 2022 from the previous quarter, according to analyst data. Memory-chip makers, many saddled with large inventories, have also issued grim outlooks as the slump in demand for gadgets persists after a pandemic boom. Micron Technology Inc.,SK Hynix Inc., Western Digital Corp. and Tokyo-based Kioxia Holdings Corp. have unveiled plans to reduce their investments aimed at capacity expansion or to lower output to address a supply glut that is getting worse. Last month, Micron Technology said it would cut jobs and spending for the year to reduce costs after reporting a loss in its most recent quarter. Memory chips are considered a bellwether for the semiconductor industry because they are largely commoditized and sensitive to shifts in supply and demand. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest producer of memory chips, reported Jan 31 that its operating profit for the October-to-December quarter dropped 69% from a year earlier. Click here to read…

Report: Myanmar opium cultivation surges 33% amid violence

The production of opium in Myanmar has flourished since the military’s seizure of power, with the cultivation of poppies up by a third in the past year as eradication efforts have dropped off and the faltering economy has led more people toward the drug trade, according to a United Nations report released Jan 26. In 2022, in the first full growing season since the military wrested control of the country from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, Myanmar saw a 33% increase in cultivation area to 40,100 hectares (99,090 acres), according to the report by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime. “Economic, security and governance disruptions that followed the military takeover of February 2021 have converged, and farmers in remote, often conflict-prone areas in northern Shan and border states have had little option but to move back to opium,” said the U.N. office’s regional representative Jeremy Douglas. The overall value of the Myanmar opiate economy, based on U.N. estimates, ranges between $660 million and $2 billion, depending on how much was sold locally, and how much of the raw opium was processed into heroin or other drugs. “Virtually all the heroin reported in East and Southeast Asia and Australia originates in Myanmar, and the country remains the second-largest opium and heroin producer in the world after Afghanistan,” Douglas said. Click here to read…

Peru Protests Hit Mining Sector and Impede Exports

After nearly two months and dozens of deaths, Peru’s political upheaval is battering industries that once powered one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies. Amid violent antigovernment protests that show little sign of easing, foreign-owned mines that have made Peru the world’s second-biggest copper producer have halted operations. Hotels and restaurants in the tourism hub of Cusco are nearly empty, leaving thousands of people without work as demonstrators battle police on streets normally full of tourists. On the southern coast, farmers say they can’t transport crops to the U.S. and China as protesters choke off roads. Protests have caused about $1.3 billion in damage to infrastructure and lost production, according to President Dina Boluarte’s administration. A majority of Peruvians say the protests have had a big impact on their economic livelihoods, according to a Jan 29 poll by the Institute of Peruvian Studies. The Lima Chamber of Commerce estimates that 1.1 million jobs could be lost. “The outlook is not good,” said Alonso Segura, a former finance minister. “If this continues, we might even experience a recession.” Peru’s crisis underpins the costs of growing political instability in Latin America that is fuelled by anger over corruption, weakening economies and grinding inequality, economists say. Click here to read…

Japan Policy calls for new reactors at plants where shelf life is issue

The government is backtracking on the issue of where to build new nuclear reactors. It is now set to limit construction of new facilities at sites where a reactor has reached the end of its operating lifespan, retreating from its original proposal made last month that did not question where they would be built, sources said. The change in the draft basic policy, which is aimed at weaning Japan off fossil fuels and making greater use of green energy, was made in response to safety concerns voiced by lawmakers in Komeito, the junior partner in the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party. The initial proposal did not mention restrictions on facilities. That left open the possibility that an electric utility could add a new reactor to a plant of its choice if it decides to decommission an aged unit at a separate site. Komeito, which has many members wary about continued reliance on nuclear energy, called for the draft basic policy to use wording suggesting the constrained use of nuclear power. The government intends to seek Cabinet approval for the basic policy to achieve its so-called green transformation by the end of February by removing potential stumbling blocks to its timetable, the sources said. But opposition to the change in the revised draft proposal has also arisen from a pro-nuclear group of LDP lawmakers. Click here to read…

Chat GPT-connected companies like Buzz Feed see stock volume surges in enthusiasm over Open AI

Companies tied to artificial intelligence services recorded some of their highest trading volumes on record this month, amid a frenzy of interest in the Chat GPT tool, which generates conversation-style interactions. Buzz Feed Inc, C3.ai Inc, Sound Hound AI Inc, and BigBear.ai Holdings Inc are among the stocks that have all seen massive jumps in volume, along with dizzying swings in their share prices. BigBear.ai soared nearly 65 per cent on Jan 30, with trading volume that was more than 2,100 per cent of its daily volume over the past three months. Last week, Microsoft Corp said it was investing US$10 billion in Open AI, the maker of Chat GPT, and Buzz Feed announced plans to use OpenAI to help with content creation. Over the weekend, Bloomberg News reported that the China-based search company Baidu Inc is planning to roll out an artificial intelligence chatbot service similar to Chat GPT. The developments have made AI-related stocks hugely popular with investors. Buzz Feed shares soared more than 300 per cent last week, and trading volume topped 438 million shares. Volume is above 485 million for the month, compared with its monthly average of less than 25 million shares. Among other stocks, C3.ai has seen more than 72 million shares trade hands this month, the most since June, while voice AI software company Sound Hound AI Inc has seen about 64.5 million shares change hands, almost three times its monthly average. Click here to read…

China e-retailer JD.com ending sales in Thailand, Indonesia

Chinese online retailer JD.com Inc. is closing its consumer e-commerce services in Indonesia and Thailand amid intense competition in Southeast Asia. The e-commerce service will stop taking orders Feb. 15 in both countries and shut down in March, according to announcements Monday on the two websites. JD.com said in a separate statement it would develop its cross-border supply chain business that serves Southeast Asia and other global markets. The company operates or manages warehouses or industrial parks in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. E-commerce vendors in Southeast Asia have been squeezed by intense competition, including from JD.com’s Chinese rival, Alibaba Group. JD.com reported a profit of 6 billion yuan ($800 million) in the quarter ending in September on sales of 243.5 billion yuan. That was an improvement from a loss of 2.8 billion yuan on sales of 218.7 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. JD.com’s foreign operations and other “new business” accounted for just over 2 percent of total sales, the company said. (AP) Click here to read…

Strategic

Blinken visit unlikely to fix US-China differences, but Russia a possible area of progress: analysts

Washington and Beijing are too far apart on most outstanding bilateral issues for their relations to improve appreciably when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets his Chinese counterparts this weekend, with Russia likely to be the only front for possible progress, US analysts said on Jan 30.Allegations of Chinese support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, tariffs, human rights, US export restrictions and cooperation on climate change are all poised to appear on the agenda, each with significant obstacles to potential breakthroughs Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Washington-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, stressed there should not be “many expectations” of any “significant breakthroughs” from the trip. But he added this was not a “bad thing” given how far the relationship had deteriorated over the last five years. Blinken’s visit was mainly about “re-establishing the undergirding of the relationship and putting in place some procedures and mechanisms to be able to manage through the tensions”, Blanchette said. However, differences over Taiwan present the sharpest areas of disagreement owing to assessments of a possible armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait, making Blinken’s trip crucial in offsetting military rhetoric with diplomacy, said Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute, a Washington think tank. Click here to read…

Russia Boosts China Trade to Counter Western Sanctions

Trade between China and Russia boomed last year, providing a lifeline to Russia’s beleaguered economy and showing the limits of Western sanctions, according to a new report. Moscow boosted imports of technologies critical to its war in Ukraine including semiconductors and microchips from China, the report by the D.C.-based nongovernmental organization Free Russia Foundation said. China’s increased purchases of Russian exports, driven by energy sales, more than offset the declines from major Western trading partners including the U.S., U.K. and some European Union countries. “As the U.S., EU, the U.K. have all scaled back operations with Russia, China has emerged, by a wide margin, to be Russia’s most important trade partner,” the report says. Based on 40 million entries of customs records obtained by the Free Russia Foundation, the report offers a granular view of Russia’s trade, which was obscured after the imposition of Western sanctions. In April, Russian customs authorities suspended their monthly publication of data on exports and imports, among other statistics, saying at the time that it wanted to avoid “incorrect estimates, speculations and discrepancies in terms of import deliveries.” Its January 2022 data are the latest available. China has become a supplier of some key technologies that can have a military purpose despite the Western sanctions. China sold $3.3 million worth of unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, to Russia last year, according to the data. Click here to read…

Japan boosts Global South ties with eye on China and Russia

The Japanese government is strengthening relations with countries in the Global South, seeking a common front against Russia and China amid seismic shifts in the international security landscape. “For the entire international community to cooperate in addressing the multiple issues the world faces, the G-7 will unite and strengthen engagement with the so-called Global South,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a major policy speech Jan 23. While lacking an established definition, the Global South generally includes such regions as Southeast Asia, Africa, and South and Central America. The term has been used recently instead of “Third World,” which referred to countries that did not take sides in the Cold War. The Group of Seven’s share of the world’s gross domestic product has fallen from 66% in 1990 to around 45% as India and other Global South countries have enjoyed remarkable economic growth. Kishida also touched on the issue in his state visit to Washington on Jan. 13, saying that “if the Global South, holding integral places in the international arena, turn their back, we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” His intentional repeated use of the term “Global South” owes largely to changes in the global security environment. Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s maritime expansionism, the Global South has become an increasingly crucial part of the international security picture. Click here to read…

U.S., Germany poised to send tanks to Ukraine

The United States and Germany are poised to provide a significant boost to Kyiv’s war effort with the delivery of heavy battle tanks to Ukraine, sources said, a move Moscow condemned as a “blatant provocation”.Washington was expected to announce as soon as Jan 25 that it will send M1 Abrams tanks and Berlin has decided to dispatch Leopard 2 tanks, the sources said, a reversal in policy that Kyiv has said would help reshape the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again pressed Western allies to provide their most modern battle tanks, saying in his nightly video address that “discussions must be concluded with decisions”. Germany and the United States have until now held back on providing heavy armour, wary of moves that could give the Kremlin reason to widen the conflict. Moscow has warned that supplies of modern offensive weaponry to Ukraine will escalate the war, with some Russian officials warning that Kyiv’s allies were leading the world into a “global catastrophe”. Moscow has now repeatedly said that it is fighting the collective West in Ukraine. The possible deliveries of battle tanks by Washington to Ukraine would be an “another blatant provocation” against Russia, Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, said on Jan 25. Click here to read…

Joe Biden says no F-16s for Ukraine as Russia claims gains

Ukraine’s defence minister was expected in Paris on Jan 31 to meet President Emmanuel Macron amid a debate among Kyiv’s allies over whether to provide fighter jets for its war against Russia, after US President Joe Biden ruled out giving F-16s. Ukraine planned to push for Western fourth-generation fighters like F-16s after securing supplies of main battle tanks last week, an adviser to Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Jan 27. Asked at the White House on Jan 30 if the United States would provide F-16s, Biden told reporters: “No”. But France and Poland appear to be willing to entertain any such request from Ukraine, with Macron telling reporters in The Hague on Jan 30 that “by definition, nothing is excluded” when it comes to military assistance. In remarks carried on French television before Biden spoke in Washington, Macron stressed any such move would depend on several factors including the need to avoid escalation and assurances that the aircraft would not “touch Russian soil”. He said Reznikov would also meet his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu in Paris on Jan 31.In Poland on Jan 30, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also did not rule out a possible supply of F-16s to neighbouring Ukraine, in response to a question from a reporter before Biden spoke. Click here to read…

Korea-Japan summit unlikely to be held before March

A summit between President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is unlikely to be held before March, officials said Jan 30, as the two countries negotiate a solution to the issue of compensation for forced labor victims. Speculation has been widespread that Yoon could pay his first visit to Japan as president next month for a summit with Kishida. The visit would be timed to coincide with an agreement between the two countries on how to settle the issue of compensation for Korean victims of wartime forced labor during Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule. “There’s no plan in place for President Yoon to visit Japan next month,” a key presidential official told Yonhap News Agency. A different senior official also expressed skepticism about a summit taking place before March, saying, “There’s still more work to do in terms of persuading the victims and negotiating the details with Japan.” Relations between Seoul and Tokyo have frayed since Korea’s Supreme Court issued rulings in 2018 that ordered Japan’s Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to pay compensation to the Korean forced labor victims. Japan maintains that all issues of compensation were settled under a 1965 treaty that normalized bilateral ties after Japan’s colonial rule. Click here to read…

Turkish elections: A referendum on Erdogan’s republic

With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan setting voting day for May 14, Turkey’s polarized political landscape is braced for the most critical, dramatic elections in the country’s history. Coinciding with the republic’s centennial, the choice of nearly 53 million voters feels existential: They will decide whether or not to approve – in final terms – Erdogan’s drive toward an extremely centralized system of government, or, to put it more simply, one-man rule. The presidential and parliamentary elections must be seen as a decision on the nature of how the country is administered. For the fragmented opposition camp, the immense challenges it faces appear to work in favour of Erdogan and his ruling alliance. The chances are that despite Turkey being entombed in a deep economic crisis, he may well win again. The elections are in essence a referendum about ending or maintaining a one-party rule that has lasted for two decades. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have won consecutively 13 elections and three referendums in that period, cementing a sense of invincibility. This has paved the way for a slow-motion power grab in which Erdogan has seized control of key institutions of state, subordinated the judiciary and media to the executive, and spread a blend of Islamism and offensive nationalism within society. Click here to read…

Myanmar invited to Asian military meeting co-chaired by US

The Myanmar military, which seized power in a coup two years ago, has been invited to take part in a regional military meeting co-chaired by Thailand and the United States. The five-day ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) Experts’ Working Group on Maritime Security is due to start on February 20 and will also include “table top” exercises. Myanmar Now, an independent online publication focusing on Myanmar which reported the invitation on Jan 30, said it had received leaked documents showing the theoretical drills were designed to address search and rescue, piracy, and the smuggling of drugs, weapons and people. Lieutenant Colonel Martin Meiners, a spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, told Myanmar Now that the Myanmar military had been invited in accordance with ASEAN protocols. “Attendance at ASEAN forums is determined by ASEAN member states,” Meiners told the outlet. As well as the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the meeting will include representatives from dialogue partners Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the US. ASEAN has struggled with how to handle Myanmar amid the ruling generals’ failure to deliver on a plan that was supposed to end the violence triggered by the February 1, 2021 coup, and create the conditions for dialogue. Click here to read…

Blinken urges calm, reaffirms ‘ironclad’ US support for Israel

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called for “calm” and “de-escalation” between Israelis and Palestinians while reiterating Washington’s “ironclad” commitment to Israel. In a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Jan 30, Blinken reaffirmed that the administration of US President Joe Biden will push forward with normalisation efforts between Israel and Arab states, to “integrate” the country into the region.In his first visit to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories since Netanyahu’s far-right government took office late last year, the top United States diplomat also heaped praise on the US-Israel alliance. “It’s important that the government and people of Israel know America’s commitment to their security remains ironclad,” Blinken said. “That commitment is backed up by nearly 75 years of United States support. America’s commitment has never wavered; it never will.” His trip comes amid an eruption of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, with the Israeli military conducting near-daily, deadly raids in the occupied West Bank. Last week, Israeli forces killed 10 Palestinians in the West Bank, including nine in the Jenin refugee camp. A day later, a Palestinian gunman fatally shot seven Israelis in a settlement in occupied East Jerusalem. On Jan 30, Blinken paid tribute to the Israeli victims without mentioning Palestinians killed by Israel. Click here to read…

US military operation kills top ISIL leader in Somalia

The United States military has carried out an operation that killed a senior ISIL (ISIS) leader in northern Somalia, US officials said. A statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Jan 26 said Bilal al-Sudani, a US-designated ISIL leader in Somalia and “key facilitator for ISIS’s global network”, was killed in the operation. It added that the operation was approved by President Joe Biden earlier this week and carried out on January 25. “Al-Sudani was responsible for fostering the growing presence of ISIS in Africa and for funding the group’s operations worldwide, including in Afghanistan,” Austin said. There were no other details about the operation given, including how the US forces carried out the operation or even how many American soldiers were involved. US officials told reporters at a teleconference on Jan 26 that 10 of al-Sudani’s associates were also killed in the operation. “We had prepared for the possibility of capturing Sudani, but the hostile forces’ response to the operation resulted in his death,” the State Department said. In 2012 before he joined ISIS, al-Sudani was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury for his role in facilitating financing for foreign fighters to travel to an al-Shabab training camp. Click here to read…

US declares Wagner Group ‘transnational criminal organization’

Washington has designated the private military company (PMC) the Wagner Group a “significant transnational criminal organization,” the US Treasury Department said on Jan 26 as it unveiled a new batch of sanctions against Russia. The US accused the company founded by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin of being engaged in “an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity” in both Ukraine, where the PMC is fighting with Russian troops, and several African nations. The Wagner Group poses a “transcontinental threat,” the Treasury statement read, adding that the PMC “has been involved in Kremlin-backed combat operations around the world.” It referred specifically to Russia’s military effort in Ukraine, as well as alleging that the group had “also meddled and destabilized countries in Africa” such as the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali. Apart from the Wagner Group, the US also imposed sanctions on eleven other entities and six individuals, including those it suspects of supporting the PMC’s operations. The list includes Russia- and China-based technology companies and a UAE-based aviation firm, as well as several CAR-based security companies allegedly linked to the Wagner Group. A separate US sanction list also included in Jan 26’s batch of restrictions targets the Russian defence industry and includes a cargo airline, a drone producer, and several technology companies. Click here to read…

Iran Ammunition Factory Hit by Blast

Iran said three drones caused an explosion at an ammunition factory in the city of Isfahan late Jan 28, amid fresh tensions with the West and Israel over Tehran’s military involvement in Ukraine and stalled negotiations to revive an international accord that limits Iran’s nuclear activities. Phone footage captured by several passersby in Isfahan and posted on social media showed what appeared to be a large explosion on the side of a building on a major street. “At around 23:30, an unsuccessful attack using micro-aerial vehicles was carried out on one of the Defense Ministry’s workshops,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement, adding that one drone had been shot down by air defences while two others had exploded. The ministry said the roof of one building had been slightly damaged, and that the explosion had caused no casualties. A local crisis-management chief, Mansour Shisheforoush, told state media that residents had reported “abnormal sounds” in three or four parts of Imam Khomeini Street, a main thoroughfare leading to the city center. Iranian authorities didn’t immediately assign blame for the blast. Iranian media also reported a large fire had broken out at an oil refinery in an industrial area outside the western city of Tabriz. It wasn’t clear whether the two incidents were related. Click here to read…

Taiwan’s Tsai unveils new cabinet in bid to regain lost ground

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen officially appointed former Vice President Chen Chien-jen as premier on Jan 27, signaling a major cabinet reshuffle designed to energize her government well before elections in 2024. “I have to say, once again: Premier Su, you have worked hard,” Tsai said during a news conference, turning toward outgoing premier Su Tseng-chang, who nodded in return. “He is always on the front line, helping me to bear a lot of pressure, giving me more strength to focus on diplomacy, defence and cross-strait affairs, while laying a stronger foundation for Taiwan and creating a bigger international space for Taiwan.” “Former British Prime Minister Churchill once said: ‘Success is not final, failure is not fatal,'” Tsai noted. “In the face of changes and challenges, we will not pessimistically see difficulties, but grasp opportunities from difficulties.” Su began serving as premier in 2019. The co-founder of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). He submitted his resignation along with that of his cabinet to Tsai earlier this month. Su had originally offered to quit after the November poll losses but was asked to stay on. The 75-year-old is the longest-serving DPP premier in history. Tsai said the new cabinet has four priorities: managing the post-pandemic reopening and recovery, reviewing social care, developing infrastructure and supporting small businesses, and strengthening Taiwan’s position in global supply chains. Click here to read…

NATO’s Stoltenberg in South Korea to deepen ties in Asia

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in South Korea on Jan 29, the first stop on a trip that will include Japan and is aimed at strengthening ties with the U.S. allies in the face of the war in Ukraine and rising competition with China.In the South Korean capital, Seoul, Stoltenberg met Foreign Minister Park Jin, and was expected to meet President Yoon Suk-yeol and Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-Sup. NATO is concerned about North Korea’s “reckless” missile tests and nuclear weapon program, while the war in Ukraine had ramifications for Asia, Stoltenberg told Park in remarks at the beginning of their meeting, citing suspicion that North Korea is providing military support to the Russian war effort. “This just highlights how we are interconnected,” he said. Both officials cited “shared values” between NATO countries and South Korea. “Given today’s unprecedented global challenges, we believe that solidarity among countries that share values of freedom, democracy, and rule of law is more important than ever,” Park said. Flying to Tokyo on Jan 30, the secretary general has meetings scheduled with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other Japanese officials. While NATO will remain focused on Europe and North America, its members are affected by issues around the world, Stoltenberg told South Korea’s Yonhap News agency in an interview. Click here to read…

Russia rules out talks with Japan on fishing near disputed islands

Russia said on Jan 29 it will not hold annual talks with Japan on renewing a pact that allows Japanese fishermen to operate near disputed islands, saying Japan has taken anti-Russian measures. The islands, off the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, are known in Russia as the Kurils and in Japan as the Northern Territories and have been at the core of decades of tension between the neighbours. “In the context of the anti-Russian measures taken by the Japanese government … the Russian side informed Tokyo that it could not agree on the holding of intergovernmental consultations on the implementation of this agreement,” the RIA state news agency reported, citing Russia’s foreign ministry. Japan, a major U.S. ally, imposed sanctions on dozens of Russian individuals and organisations soon after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year. On Jan 27, it tightened sanctions on Russia in response to Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities. Russia in June suspended the 1998 agreement that allowed Japanese boats to fish near the islands and Japan’s chief cabinet secretary on Jan 23 told a news conference that Japan would demand that Russia engages in the annual talks so this year’s fishing operations could begin. Click here to read…

Health

North Korea locks down capital city over ‘respiratory illness’–report

Authorities in the North Korean capital Pyongyang have ordered a five-day lockdown due to rising cases of an unspecified respiratory illness, Seoul-based NK News reported on Jan 25, citing a government notice. The notice did not mentioned COVID-19, but said that residents in the city are required to stay in their homes through the end of Jan 29 and must submit to temperature checks multiple times each day, according to NK News, which monitors North Korea. On Jan 24, the website reported that Pyongyang residents were appeared to be stocking up on goods in anticipation of stricter measures. It is unclear if other areas of the country have imposed new lockdowns. North Korea acknowledged its first COVID-19 outbreak last year, but by August had declared victory over the virus. The secretive country never confirmed how many people caught COVID, apparently because it lacks the means to conduct widespread testing. Instead, it reported daily numbers of patients with fever, a tally that rose to some 4.77 million, out of a population of about 25 million. But it has not reported such cases since July 29. State media have continued to report on anti-pandemic measures to battle respiratory diseases, including the flu, but had yet to report on the lockdown order. Click here to read…

China’s Portrayal of Smooth Covid Exit Leaves Scientists Wanting More Data

China published a raft of data this week in an effort to show the peak of its Covid-19 wave has passed, though public-health experts continue to question whether Beijing has been transparent enough to enable them to accurately assess the situation. Chinese health authorities said that the daily number of Covid-19 deaths in hospitals topped out at around 4,300 in early January, and by the middle of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday that ended Jan 27 was down nearly 80% from that level. The number came in an official Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention report that also showed a sharp drop in infections and serious illness caused by Covid. The data lend support to China’s message that it has weathered the most difficult period since its abrupt early-December scrapping of strict Covid controls—in effect for three years—and that its transition to living with the virus has been smooth and orderly. While some leading epidemiologists agreed that infections in China had mostly likely peaked, they said the figures were too incomplete to judge the full impact of the policy reversal, an issue that the World Health Organization also raised. Numbers released earlier this month indicated that hospitalizations and clinic visits had peaked around the start of the year. Click here to read…

Economic

Economic tsar Liu He vows ‘China is coming back’, will keep opening up and supporting private business

China will strive to retain and boost its appeal to foreign investors, as the country is ready to step back onto the world stage and intensify its global cooperation, Vice-Premier Liu He has vowed in Switzerland. The economic tsar also invited foreign companies to increase their investments in China, after saying in a speech on Jan 17 at the World Economic Forum that China will never return to the planned-economy model. Instead, he said, it will keep opening up and supporting the private sector. In an interview with the Hong Kong-headquartered Phoenix TV after his meeting with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Jan 18 in Zurich, the outgoing vice-premier said his trip to Switzerland was meant to help dispel concerns about China’s economic policies and changes in its Covid strategy. His comments also came after Jan 17’s announcement that China recorded one of its slowest economic growth figures in the past half-century, with a full-year growth rate of 3 per cent in 2022. Liu said his mission at the World Economic Forum was to convey China’s policies on opening up, reform and development following the 20th party congress that took place in October. Click here to read…

Electricity consumption predicted to rise 6 percent in 2023, in line with GDP expansion projection

It is estimated that China’s electricity consumption – a barometer of economic activity – will reach 9.15 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023 in normal climate conditions, up 6 percent year-on-year, a report issued by China Electricity Council showed on Jan 22, being fueled by a full-fledged economic recovery that drives up electricity demand. The growth rate is in line with the predictions of economists and international organizations on Chinese economy, with most anticipating a 5-6 percent GDP expansion in 2023 despite outside pressures, which would put the world’s second-largest economy on track to become one of the fastest growing major economies this year. In terms of different industries, the recovery of catering and accommodation, transportation, and tourism will lead to increased electricity demand across the service sector this year, thanks to the optimization of anti-COVID response, according to the report which analyzes and predicts China’s electricity supply-demand situation in 2023. Power consumption in the primary industry, mainly agricultural sector, is predicted to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2023, while that of the secondary industry will also experience a gradual rebound, the report said. In particular, the gradual restoring of China’s property industry will prompt an electricity consumption jump in steel and construction materials, and accelerate production and investment in high-tech manufacturing, services and other fields. Click here to read…

China’s Huawei looks to ports, factories to rebuild sales

As technicians in a distant control room watch on display screens, an automated crane at one of China’s busiest ports moves cargo containers from a Japanese freighter to self-driving trucks in a scene tech giant Huawei sees as its future after American sanctions crushed its smartphone brand. The backbone of the “smart terminal” at the Tianjin Port, east of Beijing, is a data network built by Huawei, which is reinventing itself as a supplier for self-driving cars, factories and other industries it hopes will be less vulnerable to Washington’s worsening feud with Beijing over technology and security. The ruling Communist Party is promoting automation in industries from manufacturing to taxis to keep China’s economy growing as the workforce ages and starts to shrink. Its managers say the “smart terminal,” part of Tianjin’s 200-square-kilometer port, allows 200 employees to move as much cargo as 800 used to. “We believe this solution in Tianjin is the world’s most advanced,” said Yue Kun, chief technology officer of Huawei’s business unit for ports. “We believe it can be applied to other ports.” Huawei Technologies Ltd., which makes smartphones and is the biggest global supplier of network gear for phone carriers, struggled after then-President Donald Trump cut off access to American processor chips and other technology in 2019 in a feud with Beijing about security. Click here to read…

World Oil Demand Hit A 9-Month High In November

Solid demand in China, India, and Japan lifted global oil demand by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November to the highest level since February 2022, new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Jan 19. China’s oil demand rebounded by almost 1 million bpd in November compared to October, while Chinese crude oil imports surged to a 20-month high, according to the JODI data shared by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF). In China, oil demand rose by 985,000 bpd in November to a nine-month high, while crude oil imports rose by 1.22 million bpd to 11.41 million bpd. This was the highest volume of crude imports into China in 20 months, according to JODI data. Chinese fuel exports rose by 495,000 bpd to 1.61 million bpd, a 17-month high. Data from this week showed that China’s fuel exports jumped in December, with gasoline sales abroad matching an October 2020 record, following a huge export quota the authorities issued to refiners at the end of 2022. Going forward, analysts and industry professionals expect China’s oil demand to rebound in the coming months from a slump at the end of 2022, as China lifted its Covid restrictions after nearly three years. Click here to read…

Federal Reserve Tells U.S. Banks To Assess Climate-Related Risks

The Federal Reserve has tasked the largest U.S. lenders to make an assessment of the risks they are vulnerable to in case of an extreme weather event caused by climate change. The U.S. central bank recently released information about a “pilot climate scenario analysis” that aims to find out what disruptions climate change and the energy transition itself could cause the business world, E&E News reports. As well as extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, scenarios that could affect top lenders’ performance also include protests against high-emission but highly profitable businesses in which banks have invested. The purpose of the exercise, as the Fed calls it, is dual: first, to gauge the banks’ ability to tackle literal, physical damage from, say a hurricane, on its real estate portfolio, and, second, to assess their ability to deal with the financial fallout of such an event that causes financial stress for their customers, compromising their ability to repay their loans. The lenders that need to submit an assessment of their climate change and transition risks include JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. They have until the end of July to complete their assessments and develop a transition scenario for their operations. Click here to read…

Gov’t mismanagement, external pressures as Arab currencies crash

Heated discussions over inflation and currency devaluations have become commonplace in many Arab countries. The Iraqi dinar has lost 7 percent of its value since mid-November, leading to the sacking of the central bank governor on Jan 23. In September, the Tunisian dinar reached a record low versus the United States dollar, as the country’s president struggles to deal with an ongoing economic and political crisis. Meanwhile, the currencies of other countries, including Syria, Sudan, Lebanon and Egypt, were among the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2022. These devaluations, coupled with rising prices around the world, have contributed to sky-high levels of inflation. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, headline inflation was 21.3 percent in 2022, while core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, reached 24.5 percent. These numbers pale in comparison to Lebanon’s jaw-dropping triple-digit inflation over the past couple of years, according to the World Bank. Some people are blaming their governments for inflation. Governments, on the other hand, have tended to point the finger at external factors beyond their control, such as the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic and interest rate hikes in the US. Click here to read…

Iraq Economy Reels as U.S. Moves Against Money Flows to Iran

Iraqis are blaming an unexpected culprit for a weakening currency that has caused the price of food and imported goods to rise: a little-noticed policy change by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed began enforcing tighter controls on international dollar transactions by commercial Iraqi banks in November in a move to curtail money laundering and the illegal siphoning of dollars to Iran and other heavily sanctioned Middle East countries, U.S. and Iraqi officials said. Iraqi banks had operated under less stringent rules since shortly after the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. But years of weak governments and crises—from the insurgency during the U.S. occupation to the Islamic State takeover of large portions of the country—led successive administrations to put off bringing Iraq’s banking system into compliance with global money-transfer practices until now, officials said. Since the procedures went into effect, 80% or more of Iraq’s daily dollar wire transfers, which previously totaled over $250 million some days, have been blocked because of insufficient information about the funds’ destinations or other errors, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials and official Iraqi government data. Click here to read…

Israel’s debt-to-GDP ratio sees sharpest decline in 35 years

Israel’s public debt-to-GDP ratio dropped to 60.9 percent in 2022 from 68 percent in 2021, the Israeli Finance Ministry said Jan 18. The year-on-year decrease of 7.1 percentage points is the sharpest since 1987, when an annual decrease of about 20 percentage points was recorded in the ratio figure, according to data from Israel’s central bank. However, the ratio remained above the pre-pandemic level of 58.8 percent recorded in 2019. The annual figures issued by Israel’s Accountant-General Yali Rothenberg showed that the government’s debt rate decreased to 59.2 percent of GDP in 2022, compared with 66.2 percent in 2021. The ministry attributed the debt ratio decline to economic growth at a rate of 6.3 percent, alongside a decrease of 7 billion shekels (2.07 billion U.S. dollars) in government debt. “The cumulative decrease in the last two years in the debt-to-GDP ratio is of great importance in preserving financial stability and fiscal flexibility,” Rothenberg said. Click here to read…

Kishida says Japan on ‘brink’ of social dysfunction as births fall

The low birthrate puts Japan “on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned Jan 23. “In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation’s economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy,” Kishida said. Kishida, who is contending with low approval ratings, was making a major policy speech on the opening day of a 150-day ordinary Diet session. He spoke about issues such as increased defense spending, diplomatic commitments to emerging countries and nurturing startups. His remarks on child-rearing support, one of the core elements in his 45-minute speech, came amid news that the country’s new births last year fell below 800,000 for the first time on record. Japan’s total population as of Jan. 1 was estimated at 124.77 million, down 0.43% from a year earlier — 29% of them were 65 years old or over, while 11.6% were aged 0-14. Like in other Asian nations such as South Korea, fewer births means that Japan’s labor force is likely to continue shrinking, putting pressure on a social security system that has to support a graying population. But the prime minister was short on specifics. Having earlier proposed three key platforms — economic support, childcare services and working style reform — Kishida said he would present an outline by June for a future doubling of the childcare budget. Click here to read…

Keidanren urges members to raise wages as ‘social responsibility’

Japan’s most influential business group signaled it would push for substantial wage increases as demanded by the largest labor organization in the nation during a meeting in Tokyo on Jan. 23. During the annual “shunto” labor negotiations, Tomoko Yoshino, chairwoman of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation), pressed for sharp wage hikes in light of the soaring commodity prices over the past several months. “We should take this chance to finally emerge from a long darkness and create a turning point for both workers and employers to remake Japan’s future by joining forces,” she said at the meeting. In response, Masakazu Tokura, chairman of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation), struck a positive note. “We are urging our member companies to respond positively to wage increases as their social responsibility by maintaining and bolstering momentum for the move while paying close attention to price trends,” he said. Although this may be good news for employees of large corporations, workers at small and midsize companies, who account for 70 percent of Japan’s entire workforce, may not see substantial increases in their income. Most of the smaller companies do not have financial resources to raise salaries on a par with current inflation levels. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly urged businesses to raise wages to a level higher than the inflation rate. Click here to read…

Japan’s trade deficit in 2022 hits record high as imports surge

Japan reported a record annual trade deficit of 19.97 trillion yen ($155.9 billion) in 2022 as imports soared due to a weaker yen and higher costs of natural resources following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It marked the second straight year of red ink and surpassed the previous record of 12.8 trillion yen logged in 2014, according to preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry on Jan. 19. The value of imports to Japan greatly exceeded exports throughout 2022. Imports surged 39.2 percent from the previous year to 118.1 trillion yen, topping 100 trillion yen for the first time. It was the largest amount since 1979, when comparable data became available. The volume of imported crude oil rose 8.5 percent, while the value surged 91.5 percent in 2022. The volume of imported coal increased 0.2 percent, while the value soared 178.1 percent. Exports increased 18.2 percent to 98.1 trillion yen, also a record high. The value of automobile shipments increased 21.4 percent on the year, while that of steel exports rose 24.2 percent. The ministry also released data for December 2022 on the day. The trade deficit for the month stood at 1.4 trillion yen, the 17th straight month of red ink. Click here to read…

Pakistan begins restoring power after 2nd recent grid breakdown

Pakistan’s government began restoring power to millions of people on Jan 23 after a breakdown in the grid triggered the worst electricity outage in months and highlighted the weak infrastructure of the heavily indebted nation. The outage is the second major grid failure in three months, and adds to the blackouts that Pakistan’s nearly 220 million people suffer on an almost-daily basis. Power was beginning to return in parts of the capital Islamabad and the southwestern province of Balochistan, said Dastgir. Pakistan’s largest city and economic hub Karachi is likely to see electricity restored in the next three to four hours, a spokesperson for K-Electric, the southern city’s power provider, said. Analysts and officials blame the power problems on an aging electricity network, which like much of the national infrastructure desperately needs an upgrade that the government says it can ill afford. The International Monetary Fund has bailed out Pakistan five times in the last two decades. Its latest bailout tranche, however, is stuck due to differences with the government over a program review that should have been completed in November. Pakistan has enough installed power capacity to meet demand, but it lacks resources to run its oil- and gas-powered plants. The sector is so heavily in debt that it cannot afford to invest in infrastructure and power lines. Click here to read…

U.S. Economy Slows, but Europe’s Picks Up, Raising Hopes World Will Avoid Recession

Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup. The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Jan 24, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand. Combined, the surveys point to a global economy that looks likely to slow this year but could avoid recession. The receding threat of energy shortages in Europe, a still-growing U.S. economy, and China’s postpandemic reopening could offset the effect of higher prices and interest rates and keep the world from a steep downturn. In the U.S., the economy continues to expand late last year, despite the Federal Reserve’s string of interest-rate increases designed to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. Higher rates have weighed heavily on certain sectors and could be causing households to pull back. Home sales fell almost 18% in 2022 from the previous year. Retail sales were down 1.1% in December and the labor market, while still vibrant, is starting to show cracks. Employers have shed temporary workers for five straight months. Click here to read…

Number of Western firms which left Russia revealed

Less than 9% of companies from the EU and G7 countries that owned subsidiaries in Russia have left the country since the introduction of sanctions last year, research by economists from Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen has found. The study, based on information from OBRIS, a global database containing information on millions of companies, showed that 36,000 international companies, including 3,444 subsidiaries of foreign entities, were operating in Russia as of April 2022, with a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G7 companies. The researchers then checked how many of these companies had given up their stakes or sold their branches and concluded that of the 1,404 companies, only 120 (8.5%) did so. The authors of the report noted that they only focused on companies that withdrew their equity stakes and did not look at other commercial ties, such as exports, licensing, and franchising. They found that at the end of November 2022 “8.5% of EU and G7 companies had divested at least one of their Russian subsidiaries.” Nevertheless, a number of prominent international companies have stopped working in Russia due to sanctions pressure. The list includes American, European and Japanese automakers (Ford, Renault, Toyota), energy majors (ExxonMobil, Shell), banks (Deutsche Bank, Sociеtе Gеnеral, Citi), consulting firms (McKinsey, KPMG), retailers (IKEA), restaurant and hotel chains (McDonaldʼs, Starbucks, Marriott), clothing brands (H&M, Nike), among others. Click here to read…

Ukraine conflict to cost Germany 4.5% of GDP – DW

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine will cost Europe’s largest economy €175 billion ($190 billion) this year, which equates to €2,000 per inhabitant, Deutsche Welle reported on Jan 23, citing a report by the Institute of German Economics (IW). Authors of the study compared the current situation to an imaginary scenario in which there was no military operation in Ukraine or problems related to it, such as skyrocketing energy prices, spiraling inflation and supply disruptions. They calculated that the real loss to the German economy from the conflict in Ukraine will be as high as 4.5% of the GDP next year. The study pointed out that the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine coincided with an already difficult economic situation in Germany. The economists pointed out that the country’s federal development bank KfW had already warned of a threat to prosperity in Germany due to a lack of qualified personnel and insufficient productivity growth. In 2020, Germany recorded a loss of about €175 billion, another €125 billion in 2021, and almost €120 billion in 2022. The expected €175 billion in losses this year brings the total damage to the country’s economy between 2020 and 2023 amid Covid-19 and the conflict in Ukraine to €595 billion, the report said. Click here to read…

Strategic

China Politburo retiree poised to become next vice president: report

Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng is reportedly set to become vice president after being left out of the Communist Party’s top decision-making body last fall, suggesting that President Xi Jinping is not using the role as a steppingstone for a potential future leader. Han is expected to be named to the post at the National People’s Congress opening March 5, replacing Wang Qishan, according to the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily newspaper. The 68-year-old vice premier, who had been a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, was not included in the new lineup at last October’s twice-a-decade Communist Party congress after reaching the unofficial retirement age for top officials. Han was selected as vice president because of Xi’s trust in him, according to Sing Tao. Xi and his predecessor, Hu Jintao, both spent time in the role to gain experience in foreign policy and elsewhere before assuming leadership. Wang, however, was named vice president in March 2018 after retiring from the Politburo Standing Committee at the previous year’s party congress. Repeating this pattern with Han signals that Xi is preparing for a long stint at the top. Click here to read…

Beijing fills satellite gaps for close eye on disputed South China Sea

Chinese satellite monitoring of the disputed islands and waters in the South and East China seas stepped up in 2022, according to the latest blue book from the main contractor to China’s space programme. The blue book – an annual snapshot of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) activities – said remote sensing was enhanced of the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, as well as the South China Sea’s Scarborough Shoal, Macclesfield Bank, the Paracels and Spratly Islands, and the surrounding waters. “China has formed the capability of remotely sensing all the seas and islands under administration,” said the book, which was published on Jan 18. The enhanced satellite programme provides important data for the administration and management of the waters and islands, as well as “islands of special purposes” – which China uses as territorial sea bases – the book said. The CASC also reported that its series of satellites now forms a continuous high-frequency observation capability with global coverage. This has been effectively applied in sea and island management, as well as investigation and supervision of marine natural resources, it said. Click here to read…

U.S. and Philippines eye first 2-plus-2 meeting in 7 years by spring

The U.S. and the Philippines are discussing holding a two-plus-two meeting of top diplomatic and defense officials by spring, the first between the allies in seven years, Nikkei has learned. Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez said Jan 13 that the two sides are looking toward a meeting in March. Another source said it will likely take place by spring. A two-plus-two meeting would be emblematic of the recent progress made toward mending the bilateral relationship. After the last such talks in January 2016, Manila, under previous President Rodrigo Duterte, distanced itself from Washington until the waning days of his six-year tenure. Defense cooperation is poised to ramp up as the U.S. seeks the Philippines’ support in its integrated deterrence strategy aimed at China. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to visit Manila in the coming weeks. Washington and Manila are in talks to conclude negotiations on bilateral defense guidelines. The document, which the allies agreed to draw up in November 2021, will set out their respective roles and missions in the event of a conflict. “You’ll see a greater focus on China,” said a source familiar with the matter. The source said one key will be dealing with China’s “gray zone” strategy — its use of militias and private ships to strengthen its control in the South China Sea while avoiding direct military conflict. Click here to read…

South Korea envoy in Iran summoned over Yoon’s ‘enemy’ remarks–media

Iran’s foreign ministry summoned South Korea’s ambassador to protest against South Koran President Yoon Suk-yeol’s comment that the Islamic republic is the enemy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iranian state media reported. Yoon, speaking with South Korean troops stationed in Abu Dhabi early this week, said South Korea and the UAE are under “very similar” circumstances, each facing North Korea and Iran as “the enemy, biggest threat.” His remarks prompted a rare spat between Seoul and Tehran, at a time when relations have already been testy over frozen Iranian funds in South Korea and suspected arms dealings between Iran and North Korea. Iran’s deputy foreign minister on legal affairs, Reza Najafi, summoned Yun Kang-hyeon, the South Korean ambassador on Jan 18 to protest against Yoon’s “interventionist remarks,” the official IRNA news agency said. Najafi “pointed to the deep-rooted and friendly relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran with most of the Persian Gulf countries,” IRNA said, describing Yoon’s comment as “interfering” and “undermining peace and stability in the region.” Yoon’s office said his comment was meant to encourage the soldiers. Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Jan 17 it has offered explanations to Tehran and its commitment to developing bilateral ties remains unchanged. Click here to read…

South Korea Leader Dials Back Comments on Developing Nuclear Weapons

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol dialed back recent remarks that Seoul could develop its own nuclear weapons, saying in an interview that his focus is on working closely with the U.S. on North Korean proliferation. Noting that South Korea, a nonnuclear nation, is part of the decades-old Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at curbing nuclear arms, Mr. Yoon said: “I can assure you that the Republic of Korea’s realistic and rational option is to fully respect the NPT regime…I’m fully confident about the U.S.’s extended deterrence.” Mr. Yoon said earlier this month after a meeting with defense officials that South Korea might develop its own nuclear weapons if North Korea doesn’t halt its weapons program. That prospect has long been opposed by U.S. officials and would inflame already strained relations with North Korea, though polls show it is favored by a majority of South Koreans. Mr. Yoon emphasized his country’s close focus with the U.S. and Japan on contingencies and planning for the U.S. nuclear umbrella as North Korea expands its arsenal, which includes the development of drones and short-range ballistic missiles widely seen as a direct threat to South Korea. “We are preparing a stronger joint planning and joint execution in operating the U.S. nuclear assets on the Korean Peninsula,” he told The Wall Street Journal in Davos, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. Click here to read…

Japan eyes meet between Kishida, Zelenskyy in Kyiv next month

The Japanese government is working out whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida can visit Kyiv in late February, around the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Japan aims to arrange a summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but only after fully assessing the situation on the ground and factoring in the schedule of the ordinary Diet session, which began on Jan. 23. “Nothing concrete has been decided,” Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said on a Fuji Television Network Inc. news program on Jan. 22. But he also said the government is considering having Kishida visit in light of the Group of Seven summit Japan will host in Hiroshima in May. “One of the major issues on the G-7 summit agenda will surely be Ukraine,” he said. “We have to give it thorough consideration.” The government is tentatively considering having Kishida visit around Feb. 24, according to several officials at the prime minister’s office. It wants to arrange a short visit, such as a weekend stay, since Diet lawmakers will be discussing the proposed budget for the coming fiscal year. The government could push the schedule back depending on how the war is going and how Diet deliberations are proceeding. Japan is also considering calling for online talks between G-7 leaders and Zelenskyy, which would coincide with the one-year anniversary. Click here to read…

More sanctions as Iran and EU clash over IRGC ‘terror’ label

The European Union will step up sanctions targeting Iranian officials deemed to be involved in an ongoing crackdown against anti-government protesters in the country, but will not go as far as declaring Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist” organisation until further legal processes are complete. “Ministers adopted a new package of sanctions against Iran, targeting those driving the repression,” the EU Presidency said in a tweet on Jan 23. “The EU strongly condemns the brutal and disproportionate use of force by the Iranian authorities against peaceful protesters.” The decision saw 37 additional Iranian officials and entities placed on the sanctions list. However, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, had earlier told reporters that listing the IRGC could not happen until the designation had gone through a legal process first. “It is something that cannot be decided without a court, a court decision first. You cannot say I consider you a terrorist because I don’t like you,” Borrell said. In Iran, the government was adamant that any attempts to proscribe the IRGC were illegitimate. “Based on the United Nations Charter and international law, blacklisting this state entity would constitute a clear violation of the Charter,” Nasser Kanani, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, said, touting the IRGC as an organisation that significantly contributes to the security of Iran and the region. Click here to read…

Israel, U.S. discuss possible Israeli diplomatic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he met visiting U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Jan 19 and explored ways to forge official ties with Saudi Arabia. The two discussed “the next steps to deepen the Abraham Accords and expand the circle of peace, with emphasis on a breakthrough regarding Saudi Arabia,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization deals signed in 2020 in which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco agreed to establish official ties with Israel, breaking the country’s relative isolation in the Middle East. Upon his return to office last December, Netanyahu declared that he wish to form diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, a move that he hopes will “bring an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict.” Netanyahu and Sullivan also discussed “joint efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear program and Iran’s actions in the region,” the office said. Sullivan is the most senior U.S. official to visit Israel since Netanyahu’s new extreme-right government was inaugurated last December. The swearing-in of this coalition government, which includes ministers who advocate the annexation of the occupied West Bank and voice anti-Arab rhetoric, has caused discontent in the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. Click here to read…

Jordan’s King Abdullah meets Netanyahu over Al-Aqsa tensions

Jordan’s King Abdullah on Jan 24 held a meeting with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the capital Amman, a statement by Jordan’s Royal Hashemite Court said, amid heightened diplomatic tensions over the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem. Jan 24’s meeting was attended by an Israeli delegation as well as several Jordanian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. Amman had summoned the Israeli ambassador after its envoy Ghassan Majali was stopped from entering the mosque on January 17. Jordan’s ambassador’s visit to the mosque came after extreme right-wing Israeli Minister for National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir stormed the mosque compound – Islam’s third holiest site – drawing condemnation from the Muslim world. The Palestinians dubbed it “an unprecedented provocation”. The Jordan-run Jerusalem Waqf is the exclusive authority supervising holy sites in Jerusalem, including Al-Aqsa Mosque. According to the statement, King Abdullah “stressed the importance of respecting the historical and legal status quo in Al Aqsa Mosque/Al Haram Al Sharif.” Jews are banned from praying at the site; however, some far-right Israelis have been demanding a change to the religious status quo and want to be permitted to pray at the Al-Aqsa compound. Click here to read…

Russian warship to join drills with China, South Africa navies

A Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons will take part in exercises with the Chinese and South African navies in February, according to Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency. The report on Jan 23 was the first official mention of the participation by the Russian frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov. The frigate is armed with Zircon missiles, which fly at nine times the speed of sound and have a range of more than 1,000km (620 miles). The missiles form the centrepiece of Russia’s hypersonic arsenal, along with the Avangard glide vehicle that entered combat duty in 2019. “‘Admiral Gorshkov’ … will go to the logistic support point in Syria’s Tartus, and then take part in joint naval exercises with the Chinese and South African navies,” TASS said in its report, citing an unidentified defence source. The South African National Defence Force has said the drills will run from February 17-26 near the port cities of Durban and Richards Bay on South Africa’s east coast. It said on Jan 19 that the joint exercise aims “to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China”. The exercise will be the second involving the three countries in South Africa, after a drill in 2019, the defence force added. Click here to read…

Türkiye outlines ‘complications’ in potential Ukraine-Russia talks

The diplomatic process to settle the Ukraine conflict has become more complicated despite Moscow and Kiev having initially made headway, Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Jan 19. Speaking during his visit to Washington, DC, where he met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Cavusoglu stated that while Ankara had been doing its best to put an end to hostilities, “it is not entirely in our hands to stop the war.” The minister noted that, though Russia and Ukraine had covered “quite a distance in the beginning, and the parties came closer to at least a ceasefire,” later the situation “had evolved, unfortunately.” Cavusoglu stated that the conditions of the Ukraine conflict “have changed.” “It has become more complex and has different dimensions. Unfortunately, many more different areas to negotiate have emerged,” he added. The diplomat reiterated that Ankara continues its mediation efforts as part of the UN- and Türkiye-brokered grain deal, which aims to unlock agricultural exports via the Black Sea from Russia and Ukraine. He added that the same applies to prisoner swaps between Moscow and Kiev, as well as mitigating risks at the nuclear power plant in Russia’s Zaporozhye Region. The US and Russia are also maintaining contacts in order to avoid the use of nuclear weapons, Cavusoglu noted. Click here to read…

Burkina Faso Tells French Troops to Leave

French troops who have been fighting Islamist militants in Burkina Faso will have to leave the West African nation, the country’s communications minister said Jan 23, dealing another blow to Europe’s presence in a region where Russia’s influence is growing. The decision by the government in Ouagadougou to abandon its military alliance with its former colonial power comes five months after France completed its withdrawal from neighboring Mali, which in 2021 hired the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group to support its war against jihadists affiliated with al Qaeda and Islamic State. Speaking on Burkina Faso’s state broadcaster RTB, Communication Minister Rimtalba Ouedraogo said the country’s armed forces would lead the fight against extremists themselves and made no mention of Russian support. “It’s the Burkinabe themselves who will make the sacrifice to liberate our territory,” Mr. Ouedraogo said. France currently has around 400 troops stationed in Burkina Faso. But the government of Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who came to power in a September coup, has been pursuing closer ties with Russia. In December, Burkina Faso’s Prime Minister, Apollinaire Kyélem de Tambèla, traveled to Moscow on what he said was a private visit to discuss how the two countries could cooperate. “We want Russia to be an ally in the fight against terrorism, like all our partners,” Mr. Kyélem de Tambèla said in an interview with Russian broadcaster RT. Click here to read…

Chris Hipkins confirmed as next New Zealand leader, picks deputy

Chris Hipkins was confirmed Jan 22 as New Zealand’s next prime minister and he chose Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage has risen to that rank. Hipkins got the unanimous support of lawmakers from his Labour Party after he was the only candidate to enter the contest to replace Jacinda Ardern, who shocked the nation Jan 19 when she announced she was resigning after more than five years as leader. Hipkins will be officially sworn in to his new role on Jan 25. He will have less than nine months before contesting a tough general election, with opinion polls indicating his party is trailing its conservative opposition. The lack of other candidates for leader indicated that party lawmakers had rallied behind Hipkins to avoid a drawn-out contest and any sign of disunity following Ardern’s departure. In setting out his priorities, Hipkins said he knew many families were struggling due to the “pandemic of inflation” and that the economy would be central to his government’s thinking. When asked if he would take on the same transformational approach to government that Ardern had promised after first winning the top job, Hipkins indicated he wanted to get back to basics. Click here to read…

France’s Macron Seeks Bigger Military, Leaner Pension System

French President Emmanuel Macron‘s pledge to increase military spending, a day after a million people hit the streets to protest his planned pension overhaul, illustrates the test facing European welfare systems as the costs of war in Ukraine pile up. On Jan 20, Mr. Macron vowed to raise military spending to 400 billion euros, equivalent to $433 billion, between 2024 and 2030, up from €295 billion between 2019 and 2025. France currently spends around 1.9% of its gross domestic product on defense, just shy of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s target of 2%. “We must be ready for more brutal and numerous wars,” Mr. Macron said in an address to the country’s military brass Jan 20. One way to find fiscal slack for a military buildup is to cut government expenditure on a national pension system that accounted for 13.8% of France’s economic output in 2021. Mr. Macron’s push to raise the legal retirement age to 64 from 62—a measure that brought protesters onto city streets en masse Jan 19—is at the heart of the government’s efforts to maintain fiscal discipline as military spending surges. Leaders across Europe face a similar dilemma: They are under pressure at home to maintain decades of hefty spending on welfare programs that are a cornerstone of European life while also adapting to the demands of a geopolitical landscape reshaped by war. Click here to read…

U.S. Urges Azerbaijan To End Blockade At Lachin Corridor

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to reopen Nagorno-Karabakh’s land link with Armenia, warning that a blockade of the corridor could undermine peace efforts between the two countries. Blinken spoke by telephone with Aliyev “to urge an immediate reopening of the Lachin Corridor to commercial traffic,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement on January 23. “He underscored that the risk of a humanitarian crisis in the Lachin Corridor undermined prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the statement added. Blinken last week also spoke with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and voiced “deep concern for the worsening humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh” due to the blockage of the corridor. Government-backed Azerbaijani protesters identifying themselves as environmentalists have blocked a section of the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia since December 12 and are demanding that Baku be allowed to inspect “illegal” ore mines in Karabakh. Some activists have also called for the Russian peacekeepers to be replaced with an international force. The Azerbaijani side insists that the road is open for humanitarian cargo, emergency services, and peacekeepers. Click here to read…

Health

COVID disrupts measles and other vaccinations in Asia, elsewhere

Many young children in Asia and elsewhere are missing out on routine vaccinations to protect them from measles and other diseases as their countries battle COVID-19 infections. In 2021, the rates of vaccination against measles, polio and other infectious diseases among 1-year-olds all fell for a second year in a row after posting their first declines in about 20 years in 2020, according to Our World in Data, a statistics website run by the University of Oxford and other entities. Medical institutions in many countries diverted their resources to fight the pandemic, while parents avoided hospital visits because of restrictions on outings. Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, has seen a sharp rise in the number of measles patients since last autumn. With more than 500 people stricken with the disease by December, local media called it an “outbreak.” In the state of Maharashtra, where the city is located, at least 24 people have died of the illness so far. Measles was widespread in 23 countries as of November, according to the World Health Organization. Malawi, a country in southeastern Africa, reported the first case of poliovirus in the wild in 30 years after an infection left a 3-year-old girl paralyzed. Another polio case was discovered in neighboring Mozambique soon after. Measles and other infectious diseases, including polio, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, are called vaccine-preventable diseases because effective vaccines exist against them. Click here to read…

China races to make COVID drugs as Xi fears rural outbreaks

Chinese drugmakers rushed to make anti-fever medicines and other treatments for COVID-19 on Jan 19, after President Xi Jinping said he was worried about an influx of holiday travelers to rural areas ill-equipped to deal with sudden outbreaks. Xi’s comments come just over a month after his government abruptly axed his strict “zero-COVID” controls that had largely shielded China’s 1.4 billion people from the disease for three years but sparked widespread protests in late November. As travel ramps up during the busy Lunar New Year holiday season, as many as 36,000 people could die each day from the disease, according to the latest forecasts from UK-based health data firm Airfinity. China said Jan 14 that nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospitals between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12–a roughly ten-fold increase from previous disclosures. However, that number excludes those who die at home, and some doctors in China have said they are discouraged from putting COVID on death certificates. Health experts say China’s official figures likely do not reflect the true toll of the virus. “Based on the reports of hospitals being overwhelmed and long queues outside funeral homes, we might estimate that a larger number of COVID deaths have occurred so far, maybe more than 600,000 rather than just 60,000,” said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University. Click here to read…

Economic

Goldman strategists say funds are switching to non-US assets on weaker dollar, China reopening bets

Equities are kicking off 2023 with a dramatic reversal in trends, with investors flocking to non-US assets, according to Goldman Sachs. The country’s equities have seen outflows of about US$5 billion just in the first two weeks of the year, strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti wrote in a note on Jan 18. Lower gas prices, a weaker dollar and have spurred inflows into stock funds of Europe, China and other emerging markets, they added. “We might be at a turning point for regional equity fund flows,” Mariotti said, adding that there is a case for “a more meaningful acceleration” in non-US flows as “regional diversification has historically proved more valuable past the dollar peak.” European equity funds attracted inflows for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a year ago, according to Goldman, citing data from EPFR Global and Haver Analytics. The data is the latest evidence that investors are eyeing opportunities outside the US as recession looms. Moreover, the dominance of expensive growth-linked sectors such as technology in the S&P 500 Index may deter some as interest rates are still rising. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey this week showed investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005. Elsewhere, strategists including those at Citigroup and Goldman have turned more bullish on European stocks as economic growth proves resilient. Click here to read…

Saudi Arabia Is Open To Discuss Non-Dollar Oil Trade Settlements

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, is open to discussing oil trade settlements in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, Saudi Minister of Finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, told Bloomberg TV in an interview in Davos on Jan 17. The Saudi signal that it could be open to talks about oil trade arranged in non-dollar currencies could be another threat to the current dominance of the U.S. dollar in global oil trade. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV. “I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world,” the Saudi minister added. The Saudi riyal has been pegged to the U.S. dollar for decades, while the Saudi oil exports continue to support the petrodollar system from the 1970s in which the world’s top oil exporter prices its crude in U.S. dollars. However, Saudi Arabia is willing to deepen its strategic cooperation in oil trade with China, the world’s largest crude oil importer. Last month, China and Saudi Arabia agreed to expand crude oil trade as they upgraded their relations to a strategic partnership during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Saudi capital Riyadh. Click here to read…

Chinese newborns in 2022 expected to drop below 10 million with total population expected to shrink for the first time in decades: demographer

The figure of Chinese newborns in 2022 to be declared is expected to drop below 10 million, a record low since 1949, and the total Chinese population is expected to shrink for the first time in decades, a Chinese demographer said as the Chinese demographic figures are expected to be released next week. He Yafu, an independent demographer, said the number of newborns in 2022 is expected to further decline from 2021, and the number of deaths is expected to increase compared with 2021. The combined effects of which will lead to the negative growth of the Chinese population in 2022 for the first time in decades. He proposed a full liberalization on childbirth, warning that negative factors in demography will undermine the long-term growth potential of economy unless the government’s policies to promote childbirth start to take effect, He told the Global Times on Jan 12. Considering the declining trend of newborns during the past few years and the newborns’ figures released by local governments in the previous months of 2022, He predicted that the number of newborns in China fell by 5 to 10 percent from 2021, stood at a number between 10.09 million and 9.56 million. Meanwhile, He said the deaths of the Chinese population in 2022 may increase a bit more than the figure of 10.14 million in 2021, due to the further aging population. Click here to read…

U.S. Nears Debt Ceiling, Begins Extraordinary Measures to Avoid Default

The Treasury Department began taking special measures to keep paying the government’s bills on Jan 19 as the U.S. bumped up against its borrowing limit, kicking off a potentially lengthy and difficult debate in Congress over raising the debt ceiling. With the federal government constrained by the roughly $31.4 trillion debt limit, the Treasury Department began deploying so-called extraordinary measures. Those accounting maneuvers, which include suspending investments for certain government accounts, will allow the Treasury to keep paying obligations to bondholders, Social Security recipients and others until at least early June, the department said last week. That gives lawmakers on Capitol Hill and the Biden administration roughly five months to pass legislation raising or suspending the debt limit. In a letter to congressional leaders on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said there was “considerable uncertainty” about how long extraordinary measures can last. “I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” Ms. Yellen said. House Republicans are planning to use the debt ceiling, which will need to be raised in 2023, as leverage to get spending cuts. But Democrats are looking to act now in the lameduck session to prevent that. Click here to read…

Top China, US economic officials in first face-to-face meeting in 2 years

China and the United States agreed to step up policy coordination to counter economic headwinds and climate change, after top economic officials of the world’s two largest economies held their first face-to-face meeting in more than two years in a bid to manage bilateral tensions. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He on Jan 18 met US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Zurich, Switzerland, with the US describing the conversations as “candid, substantive, and constructive”. The two discussed macroeconomic and financial developments, while Yellen raised issues of concern “in a frank exchange of views”, the US Treasury Department said in a statement. The two sides further agreed Yellen would visit China in the near future and that a reciprocal visit to the US would be arranged. Washington and Beijing have sought to put a floor under their troubled relationship following a summit in November between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Indonesia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to make his first trip to China in early February. “Both sides agreed it is important for the functioning of the global economy to further enhance communication around macroeconomic and financial issues,” the Treasury Department said in the statement. Click here to read…

China GDP: ‘double-dip’ saw US economic gap widen last year after second-lowest growth since 1976

Beijing’s hardline zero-Covid strategy likely led to the economic gap with the United States widening last year after China’s economy grew at its second slowest pace in 46 years, according to analysts. The world’s second-largest economy grew by 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, data released on Jan 17 showed, as China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022 grew by 3 per cent to 121 trillion yuan (US$18 trillion). China’s full-year growth figure was only slightly better than the 2.2 per cent growth seen in 2020, which was the lowest since 1976, and fell short of the official “around 5.5 per cent” target. But the annual figure was still better than expected after a coronavirus-ravaged 2022, and comes after Beijing abruptly ended its zero-Covid strategy last month, raising hopes that China can resume its bid to end the US’ lengthy run as the world’s largest economy, which economists at Goldman Sachs said in December could occur by around 2035. “The double-dip last year led to a bigger economic gap with the US, rather than narrowing,” said Qiu Xiaohua, former head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), after China’s economy grew by 6 per cent in 2019 and recovered from the 2020 decline by expanding by 8.4 per cent in 2021. Click here to read…

China Focus: Chinese provinces set sanguine economic goals for 2023

Chinese provinces have set robust 2023 targets for major economic indicators from GDP to retail sales, setting an upbeat tone for the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shadows. The 2023 GDP growth targets range from 4 to 9.5 percent for China’s provincial-level regions. More than half of them expect their GDP to grow by 6 percent or higher, according to government work reports delivered at the annual sessions of the local people’s congresses. Hainan, a southern island province and a tourist hotspot, targeted the GDP growth at 9.5 percent, the highest among Chinese provincial regions, as it expects a strong revival of its tourism this year. Among the highest goals are also those by Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which have anticipated their GDP to grow at 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in 2023. Economic heavyweights such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang mostly set GDP targets at 5-6 percent, as these provinces boast bigger economic sizes and are focusing more on improving quality, experts said. The southern manufacturing heartland Guangdong province, whose GDP accounts for about one-tenth of the country’s total, set a GDP growth target of at least 5 percent for 2023. Shanghai, a financial hub in east China, expects to notch a year-on-year GDP growth of over 5.5 percent this year. Click here to read…

Taiwan’s Asia Silicon Valley is plagued by delays and lukewarm interest, setting the project back years

The government’s National Development Council said in 2016, when the Asia Silicon Valley project was announced, that it planned to initially allocate US$358 million. The money was earmarked for internet infrastructure, mobile broadband services and industry-university collaboration. But by 2026, current-generation technology such as 5G infrastructure may evolve to the point where prospective tenants have little interest in Asia Silicon Valley sites, Tsai said. For Gogolook, a decade-old company that develops anti-fake and anti-scam software for social media apps, the Asia Silicon Valley endeavour would mean little to its business, according to CEO Jeff Kuo. “Most of our activities are in Taipei, and if we do remote work, then location isn’t that important,” he said. Taipei is a 30- to 45-minute drive away. He said that another programme started by the government, Taiwan Startup Stadium, helps burgeoning firms connect with partners from overseas – part of the intended purpose of Asia Silicon Valley. As Taiwan’s start-up environment “isn’t that good”, the government must offer unwavering support for Asia Silicon Valley to avoid more delays or over-complexity, said Brady Wang, a Taipei-based analyst with Counterpoint, a market research firm specialising in technology. Asia Silicon Valley is expected to help 200 start-ups “succeed” and command 5 per cent of the world’s internet-of-things production value, among a plethora of other metrics outlined in a November report by the Taiwan government’s National Science and Technology Council. Click here to read…

Taliban build ties to U.S. rivals with new China oil deal

The Taliban-led administration in Afghanistan is pursuing new economic ties with countries like China and Russia in an effort to end its isolation from the rest of the world, starting by inking a 25-year oil extraction contract with a Chinese company. Announced in early January, this marks Afghanistan’s first major international resource development deal since the Taliban took control in August 2021. Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas (CAPEIC) is expected to invest $150 million in the country in the first year of the contract and $540 million over three years. The administration will initially have a 20% interest in the project, increasable to 75%. It expects the deal to create 3,000 new Afghan jobs. Afghanistan is believed to sit atop $1 trillion worth of natural resources, such as oil, gold and lithium. The U.S. and Europe imposed sanctions on Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, essentially cutting off the foreign assistance that the country relied on so heavily. But China, Russia and Iran, which face their own issues with the U.S., have been making overtures to the Taliban-led government despite not formally recognizing it. Before the CAPEIC deal was announced, acting Afghan Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters that China, Russia and Iran were interested in investing in Afghanistan. Projects under consideration include industrial parks and thermal power plants, as well as special economic zones built on land previously used for American military bases, he said. Click here to read…

China relaxes ‘red lines’ on property sector borrowing in policy pivot

China will ease its “three red lines” policy restricting borrowing by property developers, a central bank official said Jan 13, as part of a plan to help the embattled industry. Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at the People’s Bank of China, said the change will apply to 30 well-performing developers with a certain “systemic importance” in terms of scale, area of operations and other factors. The move adds to signs that China’s leadership now favors economic stability over action on underlying problems, such as excessive debts. The three red lines had been meant to rein in credit to developers and tamp down real estate speculation. Zou did not reveal specifics of the new action plan designed to strengthen balance sheets. But the current cap on a borrower’s debt-to-equity ratio are among the requirements expected to be relaxed. The action plan also includes 100 billion yuan of loans for rental housing, as well as a refinancing scheme for asset management companies designed to encourage mergers and acquisitions within the industry, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. China’s top 30 developers sold about 5.2 trillion yuan ($775 billion) worth of housing in 2022, according to the China Index Academy — around 40% of the nationwide total for January-November last year published by the government. Click here to read…

China wraps up two-year tech crackdown, top official says

China’s more than two-year clampdown on its sprawling internet sector is coming to an end, according to a top central bank official. The special campaign to rectify 14 internet platform companies’ financial businesses is basically complete with few remaining issues to resolve, said Guo Shuqing, Chinese Communist Party secretary of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Further supervision of the sector will be normalized, and support will be given to help platform companies play a bigger role in job creation and global competition, said Guo, who is also chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC). The statement was the first signal from a top regulatory official that the government is winding down a massive clampdown that affected the country’s biggest internet companies including Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings. Beijing took aim at the country’s most valuable companies starting in October 2020, warning that platform operators might abuse their power and undermine competition. The crackdown later engulfed everything from e-commerce to ride-hailing and online education. It led to the suspension of Ant Group’s blockbuster initial public offering and the delisting of ride-hailing giant Didi Global from New York only five months after its debut. The tough regulatory posture along with rising economic headwinds spurred rounds of sell-offs of China tech stocks, wiping out as much as 70% of their market value in Hong Kong and the U.S. Click here to read…

Japan paying families 5 million yen to leave Tokyo

The Japanese government has announced a fresh round of incentives for people to move out of the Tokyo region. From April 2023, families seeking a new life in greener pastures will receive 1 million yen (US$7, 756) per child. This represents an increase of 700,000 yen ($5,430) on previous such payments. Once the whole benefits package is included, the maximum amount a family will be able to receive is 5 million yen. 5 million yen might sound like a lot of money. However, this translates to $38,782, which will be quickly used up in relocating to a new home, job and community, and reduced incomes. The main purpose of the scheme is to contribute both to easing overcrowding in the Tokyo region and revitalizing more rural and remote areas of Japan with an injection of youth and entrepreneurialism. It is significant that this new scheme was announced in December, ahead of the New Year holidays when many urban dwellers return to their rural roots, and conversations inevitably turn to what the future holds. Even more significant is the fact that this is not the first time the government has launched such a scheme. In fact, successive Japanese administrations have tried – and largely failed – to stabilize rural prefectures’ populations and reduce urban overcrowding for 70 years. Click here to read…

South Korea Bets Big On Nuclear Energy At The Expense Of Renewables

South Korea will rely more on nuclear power generation in its efforts to reach net zero by 2050, according to its latest plan, which envisages a lower share of renewable power generation in the electricity mix. South Korea will aim to have nuclear energy account for nearly one-third of its electricity generation capacity by 2030, while renewables are set to meet 21.6% of power demand, down from a previous forecast of just over 30%, per government documents released on Jan 12 and quoted by Bloomberg. In earlier plans, South Korea was targeting a 24% share of nuclear power generation capacity. Currently, 25 reactors provide about one-third of South Korea’s electricity from 23 GWe of plant, according to the World Nuclear Association. President Yoon Suk-yeol, elected in March 2022, scrapped his predecessor’s policy to phase out nuclear energy over some 45 years. The new president has set a target for nuclear to provide at least 30% of the country’s electricity in 2030. South Korea’s latest plan also calls for a lower share of LNG in the power generation mix as part of the country’s net-zero targets, as many countries have moved to bolster their energy security after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the market turmoil that followed. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many Western allies of the U.S. and the EU have stepped up efforts to ensure energy security and depend less on energy commodities. Many of those have chosen to rely more on nuclear energy. Click here to read…

EU becomes world’s biggest LNG importer

Purchases of liquified natural gas (LNG) made by countries of the European Union in 2022 soared 58% versus the previous year, making the bloc the world’s number one importer of the fuel, FT reported Jan 09, citing data from Refinitiv. Last year, the EU’s imports of LNG amounted to 101 million tons, having outpaced purchases made by China, Japan and South Korea. EU imports of LNG equaled 137 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, which is just three bcm less than the volumes supplied by Russia in 2021. Last year, the import of Russian gas transferred by pipelines more than halved to 60 bcm. As a result, the bloc accounted for 24% of global LNG imports during the period, At the same time, the share of Japan and China totaled 17% and 15% respectively, while South Korea accounted for 11% of the world’s imports of LNG. LNG now makes up some 35% of EU’s total gas supplies, up from 20% recorded in 2022, according to think-tank Bruegel, which noted that the share of Russian gas was reduced from 40% to 15%. In 2021, Russian gas accounted for about 45% of EU’s imports and nearly 40% of the bloc’s total consumption. However, Russian gas supplies to the region have been on a steady decline since the launch of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine and the subsequent wave of EU sanctions. Click here to read…

Lebanon’s middle class vanishes as economy collapses

Lebanon’s capital Beirut has turned into a city of contrasts. Expensive cars park before popular restaurants and bars, while people of all ages rummage through bins for something edible. “Also, more and more people are begging in the streets, mainly children but also elderly people,” Anna Fleischer, head of the German Heinrich Böll Foundation’s office in Beirut, told DW. While it is hard to tell the nationality, “it can be assumed that there are many Syrian refugees, but also Lebanese,” she added. Years of political instability in combination with an ongoing economic crisis — exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Port of Beirut blast in August 2020 — have brought the country close to collapse. Lebanon ranks not only “among the most severe crises globally since the mid-19th century,” according to the World Bank, but it is also likely that “an unprecedented institutional vacuum will further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and critical reform ratification, deepening the woes of the Lebanese people,” the World Bank report says. Following years of massive economic contraction, in combination with a 95% devalution of its currency, the Lebanese middle class has practically vanished. In March 2020, the World Bank devalued Lebanon to a lower-middle income country. “A person that is earning 1,500,000 Lebanese pounds used to have an equivalent of $1,000 before the crisis, and now it is equivalent to less than $200,” Hussein Cheaito, a development economist at The Policy Initiative, a Beirut-based research center, told DW. Click here to read…

Strategic

More NATO members pushing for higher defense spending

One look at the map and Lithuania’s difficult geopolitical situation is obvious. To the east, the Baltic country shares a 680-kilometer (423-mile) border with Belarus. To the southwest, it borders on the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. “Being so close to Russia and Belarus, we have to be serious about defense,” Zilvinas Tomkus, Lithuania’s vice minister of defense, told DW. In 2023, the country’s national defense budget will reach 2.52% of its gross domestic product (GDP), according to the government. But Tomkus said Lithuania is ready to spend even more on the modernization of its armed forces and military infrastructure. One of NATO’s eight multinational battle groups is based on its territory. “For us, 2% is a bottom line, not a ceiling,” Tomkus pointed out. Who is pushing for increased spending at NATO? Together with Poland and the UK, Lithuania is leading a push within the alliance to agree to higher spending goals. If NATO is serious about ensuring and enhancing its defense and deterrence posture, if it aims to defend every inch of its territory, “there is a need to increase defense spending,” Tomkus said. Currently, NATO members are expected to reach the benchmark of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense by 2024. That target was agreed at a 2014 summit in Wales, just after Russia annexed the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. Click here to read…

NATO hints at more heavy weapons for Ukraine

Kyiv can expect more deliveries of heavy weapons from Western countries soon, NATO said on Jan 15, as President Vladimir Putin praised his forces after their claimed capture of a Ukraine town. The death toll from Russian missile strike on a tower block in the eastern city of Dnipro rose again, this time to 30. People continued their search for survivors trapped under the rubble. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine could expect more heavy weapons following Kyiv’s requests to its allies for the vehicles, artillery and missiles it says are key to defending itself. “The recent pledges for heavy warfare equipment are important – and I expect more in the near future,” Stoltenberg told Germany’s Handelsblatt daily, ahead of a meeting this week of a group that coordinates arms supplies to Kyiv. Days after Russia claimed to have taken Soledar in eastern Ukraine, a salt-mining outpost home to 10,000 before the conflict, Putin hailed it as a major success. “There is a positive dynamic, everything is developing according to plans,” Putin said, in an interview broadcast Jan 15. “I hope that our fighters will please us more than once again.” Russia’s defence ministry announced this week that it had “completed the liberation” of Soledar. This could be a key gain as Russian forces push towards what has been their main target since October – the nearby transport crossroads of Bakhmut. Click here to read…

Russia to make ‘major changes’ to armed forces from 2023 to 2026

Russia said on Jan 17 that it would make “major changes” to its armed forces from 2023 to 2026, promising to shake up its military structure after months of setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. In addition to administrative reforms, the Defence Ministry said it would strengthen the combat capabilities of its naval, aerospace and strategic missile forces. “Only by strengthening the key structural components of the Armed Forces is it possible to guarantee the military security of the state and protect new entities and critical facilities of the Russian Federation,” Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the changes had been made necessary by the “proxy war” being conducted in Ukraine by the West, which has been sending increasingly heavy weaponry to Ukraine to help it resist Russian forces. The defence ministry, which has faced sharp domestic criticism for the ineffectiveness of its drive to take control of large tracts of Ukraine, vowed in December to boost its military personnel to 1.5 million. It has made numerous changes to its leadership in the 11 months of what it terms a “special military operation”, in which its forces initially seized large areas of southern and eastern Ukraine but have since suffered a series of painful defeats and retreats. Last week, Shoigu appointed Army General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the military general staff, to take charge of the Ukraine campaign. Click here to read…

China faces growing threats from ‘external forces’, former spy chief warns

A former Chinese spy chief has warned that China is facing increasing threats from “external forces” that risk thrusting the country into food shortages and financial instability. In an article in Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily on Jan 17, Qiu Jin, a former deputy state security minister, said China should prepare for the potential escalation of “bullying by the hegemonies”, which aimed to exert “extreme pressure” on the country and push for zero-sum games. “The instability and uncertainty of the international situation have increased significantly, and the world has entered a new period of turmoil and change,” Qiu said in the article. “Malicious practices such as blackmail, containment and blockades … by external forces may escalate at any time. The global energy crisis, food crisis and financial turmoil may also … pose a threat to our country’s national security and social stability.” Qiu, 69, said China’s domestic challenges included “resolving contradictions among the people”, resulting from the country’s “deep-seated contradictions that cannot be avoided”. The commentary from the former spy chief came on the same day as an annual high-level meeting of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, the party’s top security and law enforcement body, which is expected to lay out its priorities for the year ahead. Click here to read…

Big Tech in CPPCC: Baidu’s Robin Li, NetEase’s Ding Lei no longer delegates of China’s top political advisory body

Several of China’s biggest names in technology have stepped down from their delegate roles in China’s top political advisory body, which announced its latest list of members on Jan 18. Robin Li Yanhong, co-founder and CEO of internet search and artificial intelligence giant Baidu; William Ding Lei, founder and CEO of China’s second-largest video gaming firm by revenue NetEase; and Wang Xiaochuan, founder of the country’s second-largest search engine Sogou, are not among the 2,172 delegates of the 14th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The CPPCC meets annually in Beijing in March to submit policy proposals and discuss topics regarding the nation’s most pressing political, economic and social issues. Along with the National People’s Congress (NPC) gathering, which takes place concurrently, the “two sessions” are considered the biggest event on the Chinese political calendar. CPPCC delegate candidates are nominated by legally recognised minor political parties, associations and industry leaders; reviewed by authorities designated by the Chinese Communist Party; and voted on by the CPPCC’s standing committee, according to the body’s website. Delegates are elected on five-year terms, and there is no age or term limit, according to the official rules. Li, 54, completes his two terms this year, while Ding, 51, and Wang, 44, will both wrap up their first term. Click here to read…

Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigns as scandal engulfs top leaders

Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigned on Jan 17, state media reported, as an apparent corruption purge by the Communist leadership claimed its highest-level scalp, bringing into the public eye power plays at the top of the country’s usually cloistered politics. Phuc, 68, a former prime minister who held the largely ceremonial position for less than two years, is alleged to have been responsible for “violations, wrongdoing” by junior officials, Vietnam News Agency said in a statement, without providing further details. “Fully being aware of his responsibilities before the party and people, he submitted an application to resign from his assigned positions, quit his job and retire,” the Vietnam News Agency reported, citing the party’s powerful Central Committee. It was not immediately clear who would replace Phuc. His resignation came ahead of an extraordinary meeting by the National Assembly on Jan 18 seemingly called to sign off on his exit from office and rubber stamp a reshuffle by the Central Committee, which may see the promotion of several security officials. There had been widespread speculation over an imminent resignation by Phuc following the dismissals in early January of two deputy prime ministers, who were working under him when he led the government. Click here to read…

Sri Lanka to downsize army to 135,000 next year

Sri Lanka will reduce the size of the army to 135,000 by 2024 from the current approved number of 200,783, a state minister said here on Jan 13. The number will be further reduced to 100,000 by 2030, State Minister of Defense Pramitha Bandara Tennakoon said in a press release. Tennakoon said that the strength of the military and sustainable economic development are two sides of a coin. He said that military spending indirectly stimulates and opens avenues for economic growth by way of assuring national and human security. The government has come up with a strategic blueprint to establish a technically and tactically sound and well-balanced defense force by the year 2030 to meet future security challenges on a par with the national security needs of the country, he said. Click here to read…

Positive consensus reached at Expert Group Meeting on China-Bhutan Boundary Issues held in Kunming

China and Bhutan border expert groups held their 11th meeting in Chinese city of Kunming from Jan 10 to Jan 13, during which both sides agreed to implement all measures included in the Three-Step Roadmap for expediting boundary talks, and to keep contact through diplomatic channels on convening the 25th round of border talks. The Chinese delegation was led by H.E. Mr. Hong Liang, Director-General of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. The Bhutanese delegation was led by Dasho Letho Tobdhen Tangbi, Secretary of the International Boundaries of Bhutan. The two sides, in a frank, cordial and constructive atmosphere, held an in-depth exchange of views on implementing the MOU on the Three-Step Roadmap for Expediting the China-Bhutan Boundary Negotiations, and reached positive consensus. The two sides agreed to simultaneously push forward the implementation of all the steps of the Three-Step Roadmap. The two sides also agreed to increase the frequency of the Expert Group Meetings and to keep contact through diplomatic channels on holding the 25th Round of China-Bhutan Boundary talks as soon as possible at mutually convenient dates. Last year, China and Bhutan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a Three-Step Roadmap to help speed up boundary talks. The MoU is of historic significance and is the result of years of joint efforts and sincere cooperation between the two sides. Click here to read…

News Analysis: High consumption, past policies, U.S. sanctions lead to Iran’s gas shortage

High domestic consumption, ineffective policies of the past and the U.S. sanctions are among the factors behind the recent gas shortage in Iran that led to nationwide closures over the previous days, according to Iranian analysts and media. Iran, which has the second-largest gas reserves in the world behind Russia, has experienced a gas shortage since the start of the winter. While most Iranian provinces had sub-zero temperatures, the Iranian government had to temporarily shut down factories, companies, as well as schools and colleges in a number of cities from Jan 14 to Jan 16 in order to keep people’s homes warm. In an analysis piece, the news website Shahrara News wrote that gas consumption by the residential as well as trade and industrial sectors in Iran has surpassed 700 million cubic meters (mcm) per day this winter, indicating a 150-mcm increase year on year. It said the figure is 6.7 times higher than the global per capita and three times more than that of the entire consumption by the European Union states. According to the Iranian Oil Ministry, the country’s current daily gas production stands at close to 1 billion cubic meters, of which only 850 mcm remain after the separation of gas condensate. Iran’s daily gas consumption reaches between 650 mcm and 750 mcm during winter, leading to an imbalance of 200 mcm in the gas network, according to the analysis. Click here to read…

Japan and U.K. sign landmark defense cooperation treaty

Japan and the U.K. have signed a landmark defense pact that allows forces from both countries to be deployed to the other for training, joint exercises and disaster relief activities. Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Rishi Sunak inked the Japan-U.K. Reciprocal Access Agreement on Jan 18 in London. The deal expands Japan’s network of defense pacts and enables Britain to deepen military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region against a backdrop of China’s increasing assertiveness in the region. The treaty will be put before the parliaments of both countries. The agreement “cements” Britain’s commitment to the region, Sunak said. “In this increasingly competitive world, it is more important than ever that democratic societies continue to stand shoulder to shoulder as we navigate the unprecedented global challenges of our time,” he said. In a Japanese government readout, Kishida said the agreement will become “the foundation” for defense cooperation between the two countries. “Japan and the U.K. are partnering to take on the responsibility of addressing the strategic issues faced by the international community,” Kishida said while meeting with Sunak. The two leaders held their bilateral meeting at the historic castle of the Tower of London. Sunak showed Kishida Japanese armor that was gifted to the British sovereign in 1613 by the shogun of Japan to mark the occasion of the first trade agreement between the two countries. Click here to read…

Japan, U.S. extend security treaty into space to protect satellites

Japan and the U.S. affirmed that Washington will extend its security umbrella to its treaty ally into space, a move that would seek to protect Japanese satellites as China and Russia ramp up military activity in the arena. The foreign and defense ministers of the two countries issued a joint statement Jan 11 saying that Article 5 of their security treaty, which obligates the U.S. to defend Japan if it comes under attack, could be applied to space. “The ministers consider that attacks to, from or within space present a clear challenge to the security of the alliance, and affirmed such attacks, in certain circumstances, could lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty,” the statement said. Military activity in space is rising. China and Russia have intensified efforts to obstruct the use of space by others, interfering with satellite communications and developing missiles and laser weapons to destroy satellites. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown how satellite communications are essential for launching missiles and operating drones, as well as locating troop positions on the battlefield. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada and U.S. counterparts Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin attended the meeting in Washington — the first so-called two-plus-two dialogue between the countries since January 2022, when it was held online. Click here to read…

1st release of treated water from Fukushima to start soon

Japan will start releasing tons of treated radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean in spring or summer, the government confirmed on Jan. 13. The government announced the controversial plan in April 2021, saying the release would start in about two years. It has been opposed by fisheries in Fukushima Prefecture and neighboring countries. “Before releasing the water, the government will take steps to ensure safety and protect local communities from unfounded rumors,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno. “We will listen to local communities and the fishing industry, and carefully explain that necessary measures are in place for them.” In August 2022, Tokyo Electric Power Co., the plant operator, started building an underwater tunnel to the sea and other facilities designed to discharge the water. TEPCO says the facilities should be ready by spring but bad weather and other disruptions could delay the start until summer. Click here to read…

Tokyo, Seoul still at impasse over compensation of wartime labor

High-level diplomats from Japan and South Korea working to resolve one of the thorniest bilateral issues in decades are still feeling each other out over the latest proposed solution. Takehiro Funakoshi, director-general of the Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, met on Jan. 16 with his South Korean counterpart, Seo Min-jeong, to discuss the issue of compensating Korean wartime laborers. But the two sides have so far failed to make any traction on the most recent idea floated by Seoul. Seo said South Korean officials laid out their proposal to settle the dispute at an open forum on Jan. 12 in Seoul. It involves setting up a foundation that would pay the Korean laborers in place of the defendant Japanese companies. The foundation would receive donations from companies in both South Korea and Japan. But when lawyers for the plaintiffs who sued Japanese companies and their clients for compensation voiced their views on the proposal, they were mostly negative. The plaintiffs want the Japanese companies to respond in a manner that is clearly apologetic, and they want a better picture of where the money will come from. Observers said Seo likely sought something at the Jan. 16 meeting that would show a sincere response, such as an apology and firm monetary contribution from the Japanese companies, to appease the South Korean plaintiffs. Click here to read…

South Korean president travels to UAE, seeks arms sales

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol received an honor guard welcome Jan 15 on a trip to the United Arab Emirates as he hopes to expand his country’s military sales here. Yoon’s visit comes as South Korea conducts business deals worth billions of dollars and stations Special Forces troops to defend the UAE, an arrangement that drew criticism under his liberal predecessor. Now, however, it appears the conservative leader wants to double down on those military links even as tensions with neighboring Iran have already seen Tehran seize a South Korean oil tanker in 2021. “I think that the situation in the Middle East is changing very rapidly when it comes to geopolitics,” said June Park, a fellow with the International Strategy Forum at Schmidt Futures. “So Korea wants to make sure some of the strategic partnerships and the components … with the UAE” remain strong. Yoon arrived at Qasr Al Watan palace in Abu Dhabi on Jan 15. He was greeted by Emirati leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who took office in May after serving as the country’s de facto ruler for years. An honor guard of traditionally dressed Emiratis greeted Yoon and his wife, Kim Keon Hee. They twirled model Lee-Enfield rifles alongside troops on camelback and horseback. Inside, a military band played the South Korean and Emirati national anthems. Click here to read…

Iraq prime minister al-Sudani backs continued US troop presence

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has defended the presence of United States troops in his country in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, his first since taking office in October. The position contradicts the stance of several Iran-aligned groups that in part make up the Shia-dominated Coordination Framework, the political bloc that nominated the prime minister last year. Al-Sudani was subsequently appointed by President Abdul Latif Rashid, whose election ended more than a year of political deadlock fuelled by scholar and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr. In the interview published on Jan 15, al-Sudani did not give a timeline for US and NATO forces – who are currently serving in a training capacity – to leave Iraq, despite calls from some political allies for a full withdrawal. “We think that we need the foreign forces,” al-Sudani said. “Elimination of ISIS needs some more time.” The US invaded Iraq in 2003 amid its global “war on terror”, with troop numbers reaching a peak of about 170,000 soldiers in 2007 before forces were withdrawn in 2011. They were redeployed to Iraq in 2014 in response to the rise of ISIL (ISIS), as the armed group overran a large swath of territory across Iraq and Syria. However, combat operations largely fizzled in the wake of ISIL’s territorial defeat in 2019. Two years later, Washington officially ended the US-led combat mission in Iraq and transitioned to an advisory role assisting Iraqi forces. Click here to read…

Health

Nearly 60,000 COVID-19-related deaths reported in China in the past month; peak infection has passed: NHC

China announced the latest figures of epidemic-related deaths, as the National Health Commission (NHC) revealed on Jan 14 a total of 59,938 COVID-19-related deaths between December 8, 2022 and January 12 this year, explaining that China has insisted on classifying deaths of patients with a positive nucleic acid test as COVID-19-related deaths, which is in line with WHO and international standards. The number was revealed by Jiao Yahui, an official from the NHC. She said that the average age of those who died of COVID-19 in the period was 80.3 years old, with 90.1 percent of the fatalities above 65 years old, and 56.5 percent were aged above 80 years old; more than 90 percent suffered from underlying conditions. China has insisted on classifying deaths of patients with a positive nucleic acid test as COVID-19-related deaths, which is in line with the WHO and international standards, Jiao noted. The causes of COVID-19 deaths are twofold: coronavirus infection leading to respiratory failure and death, or underlying diseases interacting with the coronavirus leading to death, Jiao said. Among the reported 59,938 COVID-19 deaths, 5,503 were due to respiratory failure caused by the virus, and 54,435 were from underlying conditions interacting with epidemic infection, according to the NHC. Click here to read…

Britain’s National Health Service Meltdown

The National Health Service’s winter crisis has become an annual tradition, but this year’s troubles for the free-at-point-of-service system are significantly worse. The NHS never recovered from the Covid pandemic. That means the normal winter wave of flu, Covid and other respiratory ailments is swamping hospitals and doctors’ offices already coping with a backlog of patients awaiting tests and treatments deferred by lockdowns. Meanwhile, unions representing nurses and ambulance drivers have gone on strike for days at a time to demand higher pay from their government employer. Perhaps sensing the political weakness of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, the unions are resisting calls for work-rule changes to boost efficiency. They claim strikes don’t affect critical care, but work stoppages inevitably mean more treatment delays. The effects of all this on patient care can be lethal. Waiting times for ambulances for the most serious calls are getting longer, with the average response time reaching 10 minutes 57 seconds in December, compared to a target of seven. Once patients reach the emergency room, 35% now face waits above four hours between a decision to admit and transfer to an appropriate bed for treatment, the worst performance since 2010. Click here to read…

Economic

Ozone layer slowly healing, hole to mend by 2066: UN

Earth’s protective ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, a new United Nations report says. A once-every-four-years scientific assessment found recovery in progress, more than 35 years after every nation in the world agreed to stop producing chemicals that chomp on the layer of ozone in Earth’s atmosphere that shields the planet from harmful radiation linked to skin cancer, cataracts and crop damage. ”In the upper stratosphere and in the ozone hole we see things getting better,” said Paul Newman, co-chair of the scientific assessment. The progress is slow, according to the report presented Jan 09 at the American Meteorological Society convention in Denver. The global average amount of ozone 18 miles (30 kilometers) high in the atmosphere won’t be back to 1980 pre-thinning levels until about 2040, the report said. And it won’t be back to normal in the Arctic until 2045. Antarctica, where it’s so thin there’s an annual giant gaping hole in the layer, won’t be fully fixed until 2066, the report said. Scientists and environmental advocates across the world have long hailed the efforts to heal the ozone hole ― springing out of a 1987 agreement called the Montreal Protocol that banned a class of chemicals often used in refrigerants and aerosols ― as one of the biggest ecological victories for humanity. Click here to read…

World Bank downgrades 2023 global growth forecast to 1.7 pct

Global economic growth is projected to slow to 1.7 percent in 2023, 1.3 percentage points below the forecast made in June last year, marking its third-weakest pace in nearly three decades, the World Bank Group said in its latest Global Economic Prospects released Jan 10. Given such adverse shocks as high inflation, rising interest rates, sluggish investment and the Ukraine crisis, global growth has slowed “to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession,” the report said. The downgrade reflected “synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation,” as well as deteriorating financial conditions, declining confidence and energy supply disruptions, it said. Noting that the adjusted global growth forecast is overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 global recessions, the report said in 2024, the global economy is on track to grow by 2.7 percent. More specifically, the report said that growth for advanced economies is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2023, 1.7 percentage points below the June forecast. U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been downgraded by 1.9 percentage points to 0.5 percent, the weakest performance outside of recessions since 1970. The Eurozone economy is projected to grow at 0 percent, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous forecast. Click here to read…

Global food prices surge 14.3 pct in 2022: FAO

Pushed by higher energy and fertilizer prices stemming from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global food prices were 14.3 percent higher in 2022 than a year earlier, the Rome-based United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Jan 06. In 2022, the FAO’s sub-indexes show cereal prices are up by 17.9 percent from 2021, vegetable oil prices are up by 13.9 percent, dairy prices are up by 19.6 percent, meat prices are up by 10.4 percent, and sugar prices are up by 4.7 percent. In December 2022, FAO’s Food Price Index fell 1.9 percent than the previous month, registering its ninth consecutive monthly decline. But the index rose so sharply during the first months of the year that it concluded 2022 far above the 2021 average. The decline in December was largely a function of markets adjusting to distribution disruptions, higher prices for transport and lower levels of demand stemming from slower global economic growth. Month-on-month in December, prices for grains and cereals, the largest component in the broad index, were 1.9 percent lower, meat prices were 1.2 percent lower, prices for vegetable oils were down 6.7 percent, dairy prices were 1.1 percent higher, and sugar prices were 2.4 percent higher. The FAO has repeatedly warned that rising food prices threatened global food security, particularly in poor countries. Click here to read…

Why Governments Are Pushing Deeper Into Energy Markets

Governments are stepping into the energy markets in a way the world hasn’t seen in decades, propelled by a tug of war over oil and natural gas and a heightened sense of urgency on energy security. Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting turmoil in fossil-fuel markets has been a major factor in the interventionism, prompting countries to shore up supplies, tackle soaring prices and rethink where they get their energy. In Europe, where fuel shortages and price shocks have been particularly acute, Germany and France have moved to nationalize big energy companies that were facing huge losses, while the European Union is rolling out a cap on the price of natural gas. The U.S. has released millions of barrels of oil from its strategic reserves in an attempt to reduce gasoline prices, used emergency powers to bolster the import of solar panels and unleashed a torrent of measures to help create domestic supply chains for clean energy. Last month, the EU and the Group of Seven advanced democracies said they would try to prevent Russian crude oil from selling at a price higher than $60 a barrel. Russia has retaliated by refusing to sell its oil and petroleum products to those countries. Such steps have already exacerbated uncertainty in markets and roiled relations between countries. The trend is likely to intensify in 2023 and beyond, energy experts say. Click here to read…

China to accelerate approval of new coal projects to ensure energy supply

China reiterated its focus on energy security on Jan 04, vowing to ensure the supply of energy and electricity, coordinate resources and accelerate approval of new coal projects, while asking coal enterprises to expand production as peak season approaches. Power generation companies should store more high-quality coal to ensure power generation during peak times, and leading groups should coordinate resources to support affiliated power plants in Southwest and Northeast China to make full use of their capacity, and help fill the gap in local power supply and heating, according to a report from the China Securities Journal on Jan 04, citing information from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. The commission has recently implemented dynamic monitoring at 195 coal mines, 572 coal power plants, 727 hydropower plants, and 96 gas-fired power plants affiliated to state-owned enterprises, and has increased policy support, the report said. China has been deploying both domestic and overseas energy resources to ensure stable supplies for winter heating, while further optimizing the country’s energy mix to enhance supply security amid a complex international energy situation.Since the beginning of the winter heating season, the country’s supply of coal for power generation has remained at a high level, with the coal inventory at a record high of around 175 million tons, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on November 30. Click here to read…

Biden Administration’s Big Manufacturing Push Could Transform Global Trade

In just over a year, the U.S. has passed three huge budget measures aimed at transforming its domestic economy—by rebuilding infrastructure, accelerating a clean-energy transition, and boosting manufacturing in semiconductors and the automotive industry. Each of these initiatives is focussed on strengthening the U.S. economy and on boosting U.S. competitiveness in the world. But there is another crucial consideration as well: How these three policies are implemented in the months ahead could reshape global trade relations for years to come. If U.S. policy makers use this opportunity to promote domestic industries at the expense of foreign competitors, other governments are likely to respond with their own protectionist policies, leading to a costly breakup of global trade, government officials and trade specialists say. But, these same experts say, if instead the U.S. is more welcoming to products from friendly nations, and works with them to achieve what some call “friend shoring”—shifting production of critical materials to friendly nations, away from adversaries including China and Russia—the countries could continue to enjoy the benefits of trade while strengthening their supply chains, these people say. The roughly $280 billion Chips and Science Act promotes domestic semiconductor research and production. The measure known as the Inflation Reduction Act directs about $369 billion to clean energy and energy-security programs. And much of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill will be spent on boosting the U.S.’s economic competitiveness. Click here to read…

Egypt Plans Spending Cuts as It Faces Economic Crisis

Egypt plans to cut spending after the International Monetary Fund extended hundreds of millions of dollars in an economic bailout package, as the country struggles to pay off debts accumulated from decades-long building boom. Authorities said earlier this week they would delay state projects that required significant U.S. dollars to fund and cut back on travel, training and conferences for officials, according to Egypt’s cabinet. The announcement came after the government agreed to a series of measures as part of an IMF package, including selling billions of U.S. dollars’ worth of state assets to international investors, taking steps to reduce the role of the state and military-owned companies in favour of private businesses in the economy, and shifting to a more flexible currency exchange system, according to the international creditor this week. The IMF said Egypt agreed to reduce its financing needs and cut back on debt but didn’t lay out specific areas for cuts. Egypt is set to receive nearly $3 billion in loans from the IMF over four years, after the Covid-19 pandemic hit tourism and the war in Ukraine pushed up commodity prices, tipping the country into an economic crisis. As investors soured on the economy and pulled out of Egyptian assets, the Egyptian pound plummeted against the U.S. dollar, leaving the country struggling to pay for imports of items such as wheat, electronics and cars. As a result, annual inflation hit 21.3% in December, a five-year high according to the government. Click here to read…

Tackling Bangladesh’s energy inflation woes

Over the past two decades, Bangladesh has steadily improved its citizens’ access to electricity, with rural electrification accounting for a sizable portion of that improvement. Although gas still makes up the majority of the energy used to produce electricity, the nation has taken long strides toward switching to renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydropower. As of 2020, 96.2% of the population had access to electricity, up from 32% in 2000, while 7.3 million rural residents had access to clean and renewable energy, and 60% of the beneficiaries of these rural electrification projects are women. Despite the fact that the capacity for producing electricity increased by almost 80% from 5 gigawatts in 2009 to 25.5GW in 2022, the plant load factor (PLF), a measure of the ratio of power produced to maximum capacity, decreased to an all-time low of 0.8% because of recent fuel and gas shortages. In order to generate electricity temporarily, the government developed quick rental power plants (QRPPs) in 2009; over the past decade, these plants have significantly boosted electricity production. However, certain clauses in the contracts with the QRPPs and independent power producers (IPPs) mandate paying capacity charges to them even if no power is produced.Early last year, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) reported daily losses of 190 million taka (US$1.83 million) resulting from idle power plants as the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased supply-side disruptions, driving the price of petroleum in global markets to a new record high of US$100 per barrel. Click here to read…

Taiwan’s TSMC sees record quarter but predicts slowing sales

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC reported record fourth-quarter net profits on Jan 12, but also predicted slowing sales for the start of 2023 as a potential recession dampens global demand. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company operates the world’s largest silicon wafer factories and produces some of the most advanced microchips used in everything from smartphones and cars to missiles. It is regarded as a global economic bellwether because so many of its chips are in such a wide array of devices. Net profit for the fourth quarter of 2022 hit $9.7 billion (TW$296 billion) compared to $4.2 billion for the same period a year earlier, a new record. But the company predicted first-quarter 2023 sales of just $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion — figures that would constitute the first revenue decline in four years. “Moving into first quarter 2023, as overall macroeconomic conditions remain weak, we expect our business to be further impacted by continued end market demand softness, and customers’ further inventory adjustment,” vice president Wendell Huang said in the earnings release report. The global semiconductor industry has been upended both by an ongoing economic slowdown dampening demand and renewed trade frictions between the United States and China. Billions were wiped from companies’ valuations worldwide in October after Washington announced new measures to limit China’s access to high-end semiconductors with military uses. Click here to read…

North Korean trash offers window into its economy

It is difficult to assess the severity of the hardship the isolated nation is experiencing, but one South Korean scholar is trying to get a better grasp of the situation by studying litter that drifts from the North, including discarded candy wrappers and snack packaging. “This is an ice cream wrapper made in North Korea in September. You can see its quality has improved from the ones I found before,” said Kang Dong-wan, a professor of political science at Dong-A University in the southern port city of Busan, holding up a piece of refuse he picked up from a beach on Yeonpyeong Island off South Korea’s northwest coast in early December. The QR code on the packet shows it was made in Sariwon, the capital of North Korea’s North Hwanghae province. Kang said the material used to make the wrapper is much stronger than was used for similar products he collected in 2021. The production date on the item was etched by machine rather than printed with ink as with the old ones. Most North Korean food processing plants are located in Pyongyang, but the discarded wrapper indicates that the ice cream was made at a well-equipped factory outside the nation’s capital. Narrowing the economic gap between Pyongyang and rural areas has been a key policy challenge for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and the discovery of the improved packaging shows his efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Click here to read…

U.S. lawmakers outline next frontiers of China tech competition

Technology competition between the U.S. and China is “all about national security,” and more investment in emerging industries is needed for America to keep up with Asia’s biggest economy. That was the message from the U.S. senators speaking at a panel at the CES consumer electronics event in Las Vegas on Jan 06, which is being held against a backdrop of U.S.-China tensions over semiconductors and other key tech areas. “This should not be an America versus China issue, but it does mean this technology competition is all about national security,” said Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee. “God forbid we ever end up in a conflict. It’s not going to look like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It will be over before it starts, in a way, because of technology competition,” he said. Warner was also an early supporter of the CHIPS Act legislation designed to funnel $52 billion into the domestic semiconductor industry. He cited quantum computing, artificial intelligence, advanced engineering, and especially synthetic biology as the next frontier that the U.S. should be investing in to keep up with China. “The promise of biotech has been overpromised and under-delivered,” he said, but added that the ability to combine computing with biotech could change that. “We are frankly underinvesting compared to China.” The growing presence of government officials at the event — this year’s iteration brought a record number of members of congress, according to organizer CTA — underscores the growing recognition of the role of technology in national security. Click here to read…

Turkish president vows for turning point for defence industry in 2023

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Jan 09 to make 2023 a year of a turning point for the country’s indigenous defence industries. “We are determined to make 2023 a turning point in the defence industry along with other fields,” Erdogan said at a ceremony for the delivery of six new domestically made Firtina (Storm) howitzers to the Turkish Armed Forces in the north-western Sakarya province. Two more Altay main battle tanks will be handed over to the army for tests before its planned serial production in 2025, Erdogan announced, adding that this number will reach 140 in total. Turkish fighter drone Kizilelma, officially known as the National Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle System, will carry out its flight manoeuver tests in 2023, the president said. Türkiye will get the National Combat Aircraft (MMU) out of the hangar and present it to the public in 2023, he added. All systems of the aircraft are successfully installed and its tests for the flight control system, engine and hydraulic systems are made, Temel Kotil, general manager of Turkish Aerospace Industries, told local Cnn Turk broadcaster on Jan 09. Türkiye started to develop the TF-X or MMU project, its fifth-generation fighter aircraft, in 2011 and accelerated the process after the United States excluded its NATO ally from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program due to Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-300 air defense systems. Click here to read…

China retaliates against travel restrictions by suspending short-term visas for Japanese and South Koreans

Beijing has made good on its promise to retaliate against countries that impose entry restrictions on Chinese travellers by suspending the issuance of some visas for South Korean and Japanese citizens. Chinese officials said the suspension was needed to protest against “discriminatory entry restrictions” on its citizens. The move came after several countries adopted pandemic-related curbs on Chinese travellers, such as requiring Covid-19 tests before departure and limiting flights. Some of those measures have also affected Hong Kong. “It is regrettable that a small number of countries still insist on adopting discriminatory entry restrictions against China in disregard of scientific facts and the actual situation of the pandemic in their own countries. China firmly opposes this and will take reciprocal measures,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Jan 10. “We once again call on the relevant countries not to engage in political manipulation, not to have discriminatory practices, and not to affect normal personnel exchanges and cooperation between countries.” The Chinese embassy in South Korea said on Jan 10 that visas for business, tourism, medical treatment, transit and general private affairs would be suspended for South Koreans. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo also said China had suspended issuing some visas to Japanese travellers until further notice. South Korea had earlier suspended issuing short-term visas to Chinese travellers until January 31, blocking tourists from entering the country. Click here to read…

China offers talks on oil exploration deal with Philippines as Presidents Xi Jinping and Ferdinand Marcos meet

Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered to open talks on a joint gas and oil exploration deal with the Philippines, as he pledged to make relations with Manila a diplomatic priority. Meeting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr on Jan 04, Xi said the two countries should work together to become a stabilising force in the region. It is Marcos’s first visit to China since he succeeded Rodrigo Duterte as president in June, although he and Xi met in Bangkok in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. The trip is seen as crucial to China’s efforts to stop a key member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations getting closer to the United States amid the heightened rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Xi played up his personal connections with Marcos, and complimented his father, former President Ferdinand Marcos Snr, who established formal diplomatic ties with China in his presidency. Another former president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who is now the deputy speaker of the Philippine House, also formed part of the delegation – something Marcos said had helped with the tone of the meeting. “Xi was also very surprised to meet his old friend, president GMA [Macapagal-Arroyo], who accompanied me,” Marcos said in a video statement released to the media after the meeting. “And they had a few minutes of recollecting the meetings that they have had, which I think helped the tone of the meeting.” Click here to read…

Why were Alibaba, Fosun, Blue Moon among 21 private companies going on parade on China’s state TV?

Executives from 21 private-sector Chinese companies touted their confidence in the nation’s economy in an unprecedented programme aired by China’s state broadcaster, an affirmation of their economic role by the ruling Communist Party and evidence of Beijing’s determination to revive private businesses as it makes economic growth its top priority this year. Companies highlighted on The Dialogue, airing in two parts on January 7 and January 14, include tech giants Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, manufacturers like Fuyao Glass, conglomerate Fosun Group, consumer brand Blue Moon and new energy leader Longi Green Energy Technology. The executives discuss why they are confident in China’s economy and explain what they see as the new driving forces for the world’s second-largest economy. The programme aired on China Central Television (CCTV) Channel 2 and also received promotion on the broadcaster’s social-media channels. The positive coverage on Channel 2, which is regularly viewed by 1.1 billion people, is particularly important as the confidence of private-sector entrepreneurs has taken a hit after regulatory crackdowns in the technology, education and property sectors, as well as the swift policy changes, lockdowns and restrictions of the past three years. The show comes after the combined wealth of China’s 100 richest people plummeted 39 per cent to US$907.1 billion from a year earlier in 2022 according to Forbes. Click here to read…

Strategic

China adopts mild tone to smooth way for Xi visit to U.S.

China’s leaders have kicked off 2023 with a milder tone in their messaging, which analysts say could be an attempt to lay the groundwork for a potential visit by President Xi Jinping to the U.S. in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting. In an opinion piece for The Washington Post on Jan 04, new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang argued that “The planet’s future depends on a stable China-U.S. relationship.” Citing his 17 months as China’s ambassador to the U.S., Qin wrote about his fond memories of driving a John Deere tractor in Iowa, visiting a corn farm in Missouri and witnessing huge stacks of China-bound containers at the ports of Boston and Long Beach. “I leave the United States more convinced that the door to China-U.S. relations will remain open and cannot be closed,” he wrote. The soft tone was in line with President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s message that was broadcast on Dec. 31. Speaking about Taiwan, Xi avoided using the word “reunification” — which he mentioned the year before. “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are members of one and the same family,” he said. “I sincerely hope that our compatriots on both sides of the Strait will work together with a unity of purpose to jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation.” Zhu Jianrong, a professor at Toyo Gakuen University in Tokyo, said that Xi’s words on Taiwan were “completely different,” from years past. Click here to read…

US military urged to act faster on interlinked warfare system as China catches up

The United States must speed up the building of its interlinked warfare system as China pursues its own version to counter the US platform, American media reported its defence officials as saying. The so-called Chinese Multi-Domain Precision Warfare (MDPW) was mentioned by the US Department of Defence in its annual China Military Power Report last November. The MDPW aims to align all Chinese forces “from cyber to space”, US military website C4ISRNET.com reported last week. US officials say the effort is “fuelled by a need to counter” the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative (JADC2), it added. The People’s Liberation Army first tested the MDPW in 2021 to interlink command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to quickly coordinate firepower and expose foreign weaknesses, according to the Pentagon report in November. The PLA sees “systems destruction warfare as the next way of war”, C4ISRNET quoted an anonymous senior US defence official as saying last year. “Basically, it’s a way that they’re thinking about looking across domains to identify vulnerabilities in an adversary’s operational system and then to exploit those to cause its collapse,” the official was quoted as saying. China has for years pursued a more informatised military. Click here to read…

US looks to deter China by sprinkling missile-armed marines across Japanese islands

The United States wants to disperse its marines throughout Japan’s Okinawa islands by 2026, arming them with missiles and lighter gear to deter China’s military, according to reports. The US has already told Japan about the reorganisation, which it will announce after a two-plus-two meeting in Washington on Jan 04 between Japan’s ministers of defence and foreign affairs and their US counterparts, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. Officials at Japan’s defence ministry were unavailable for comment. A foreign ministry official declined to comment on the report, but said Japan and the US “will discuss matters regarding issues on the US Forces Japan, including the realignment of the US Forces Japan”. The creation of the new units, called Marine Littoral Regiments, is part of a major reorganisation of the US Marine Corps outlined by its commandant, General David Berger, in 2020 in his Force Design 2030 paper. At the time Berger said he wanted those units to work closely with Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to prevent easy access to the Pacific for China’s military.Under the littoral regiment concept, the marines are cutting aircraft numbers, and dumping most of their cannon artillery and heavy armour in favour of smaller “dispersed” forces equipped with missiles and drones that can operate in contested areas. Click here to read…

Britain and Japan to sign major defence pact as UK expands focus on Indo-Pacific

Britain and Japan are expected to sign a major defence pact on Jan 11 that will make it easier for the two nations to engage in joint military exercises and deploy troops to each other’s countries. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida are expected to sign a so-called reciprocal access agreement at a ceremony at the Tower of London on Jan 11, following an agreement in principle reached between the countries in May. The pact will go before Japan’s Diet and Britain’s Parliament in the coming weeks.“In this increasingly competitive world, it is more important than ever that democratic societies continue to stand shoulder to shoulder as we navigate the unprecedented global challenges of our time,” Sunak said in comments ahead of the ceremony. Britain is the first European country to reach such an agreement with Japan, and British officials have described it as the most important defence pact between the two nations since 1902. Japan has a security treaty with the United States that allows American troops to be stationed there, as well as a similar reciprocal access agreement reached with Australia in January 2021. The agreement is the latest in a series of cooperative security efforts between the two countries. Click here to read…

Biden, Kishida to hold 1st official meet at White House on Jan. 13

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will make his first official White House visit on Jan. 13 to discuss the international security environment with U.S. President Joe Biden. The two leaders are expected to discuss a host of issues, including climate change, critical technologies, North Korea’s ballistic missile programs, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait. “It will be a very important summit,” Kishida said during a Jan. 4 news conference. The Japanese government, which plans a massive defence buildup in the years to come, revised three key national security documents in late December to bolster its defensive posture. Kishida said the summit will be an opportunity to “demonstrate at home and abroad the further strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance” and to “establish closer cooperation to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific.” “President Biden will reiterate his full support for Japan’s recently released National Security Strategy, its presidency of the G-7, and its term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,” the White House said in a Jan. 3 statement detailing the summit schedule. It added that the two leaders “will celebrate the unprecedented strength of the U.S.-Japan Alliance and will set the course for their partnership in the year ahead.” Kishida is scheduled to depart on Jan. 9 and tour France, Italy, Great Britain and Canada before visiting the White House. Kishida said he hopes to demonstrate strong leadership as the host of the Group of Seven Summit in Hiroshima in May. Click here to read…

Japan and Europe draw closer over shared security concerns

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is discussing security cooperation with European counterparts during his Group of Seven tour, a further sign of how shared concern about Russia and China is breaking down old geographical divisions. Kishida explained Japan’s recently revised national security strategy in a meeting here Jan 10 with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni. They agreed to elevate the countries’ relationship to a strategic partnership and to hold consultations between foreign policy and defence officials. The meeting came on the second stop of a tour of fellow G-7 countries, which Kishida aims to use to bring Asian security issues into focus for the bloc ahead of this May’s summit in Hiroshima, while also dealing with the war in Ukraine on Europe’s doorstep. Meloni and Kishida expressed high hopes for plans to develop a next-generation fighter jet together with the U.K. — Japan’s first major joint defence development project with non-U.S. partners. The three countries are also working toward closer intelligence sharing and exchanges of defence personnel. Kishida and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are expected to discuss further three-way cooperation when they meet Jan 11. On Jan 09, Kishida and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to run joint defence exercises and affirmed plans to hold a “two-plus-two” meeting of top diplomatic and defence officials in the first half of this year. They also pledged closer cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Click here to read…

McCarthy elected House speaker in rowdy post-midnight vote

Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected House speaker on a historic post-midnight 15th ballot early Jan 07, overcoming holdouts from his own ranks and floor tensions that boiled over after a chaotic week that tested the new GOP majority’s ability to govern. “My father always told me, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” McCarthy told cheering fellow Republicans. Eager to confront President Joe Biden and the Democrats, he promised subpoenas and investigations. “Now the hard work begins,” the California Republican declared. He credited former President Donald Trump for standing with him and for making late calls “helping get those final votes.” Republicans roared in celebration when his victory was announced, chanting “USA! USA!”. Finally elected, McCarthy took the oath of office, and the House was finally able to swear in newly elected lawmakers who had been waiting all week for the chamber to formally open and the 2023-24 session to begin. After four days of gruelling ballots, McCarthy flipped more than a dozen conservative holdouts to become supporters, including the chairman of the chamber’s Freedom Caucus. The night’s stunning turn of events came after McCarthy agreed to many of the detractors’ demands — including the reinstatement of a longstanding House rule that would allow any single member to call a vote to oust him from office. Click here to read…

Qin Gang heads to Africa for first trip as Chinese foreign minister

Qin Gang headed to Africa on Jan 09, making his first overseas trip as China’s new foreign minister to a region where Beijing and Washington are vying for influence. The former ambassador to the United States will visit Ethiopia, Gabon, Angola, Benin and Egypt on the week-long trip, according to foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin. The trip aimed to “deepen the China-Africa comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership and boost friendly cooperation”, Wang said at a regular press briefing in Beijing. He said Qin would visit the African Union Headquarters in Ethiopia and meet Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary general of the Arab League, in Egypt. It has been a long-standing tradition for Chinese foreign ministers to visit Africa at the start of the year in a bid to underline Beijing’s commitment to the region. Qin’s visit follows the first China-Arab States Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia last month, at which President Xi Jinping stressed Beijing’s economic commitments to Middle Eastern and North African countries. Dylan Loh, an assistant professor in foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said Qin could bring “fresh impetus” to ties with the continent and he expected Beijing to continue outcompeting the US in the region. In recent years, China has extended its influence in Africa by not only building infrastructure but also providing military support and internet services. Click here to read…

UN Security Council welcomes new members; 2 are first-timers

Ecuador, Japan, Malta, Mozambique and Switzerland got a formal welcome into the U.N. Security Council on Jan 03, taking the two-year seats they won unopposed in June. In a tradition that Kazakhstan started in 2018, the five countries’ ambassadors installed their national flags Tuesday alongside those of other members outside the council chambers. Mozambican Ambassador Pedro Comissário Afonso of Mozambique called it “a historic date” and Swiss Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl said she felt “a deep sense of humility and responsibility” as their countries marked their first-ever terms on U.N.’s most powerful body. Malta joined for a second time, Ecuador a fourth and Japan a record 12th. China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States are permanent, veto-wielding members of the group. Its 10 other members are elected by the 193-nation General Assembly for staggered, two-year terms. They’re allocated by global regions. To many countries, winning a council seat is considered a signature diplomatic accomplishment that can raise a nation’s global profile and afford small countries a bigger voice than they might otherwise have in the major international peace and security issues of the day. The council deploys peacekeeping missions, can approve sanctions and speaks out — sometimes — on conflicts and flashpoints, while also surveying such thematic issues as terrorism and arms control. Click here to read…

Bolsonaro supporters invade Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court

Supporters of Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro on Jan 08 invaded the country’s Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court, in a grim echo of the U.S. Capitol invasion two years ago by fans of former President Donald Trump. Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the most fraught election in a generation last year, announced a federal security intervention in Brasilia lasting until Jan. 31 after capital security forces initially were overwhelmed by the invaders. In a press conference, he blamed Bolsonaro and complained about a lack of security in the capital, saying authorities had allowed “fascists” and “fanatics” to wreak havoc. “These vandals, who we could call fanatical Nazis, fanatical Stalinists … fanatical fascists, did what has never been done in the history of this country,” said Lula, who was on an official trip to Sao Paulo state. “All these people who did this will be found, and they will be punished.” The sight of thousands of yellow-and-green-clad protesters running riot in the capital capped months of tension following the Oct. 30 vote. Bolsonaro, an acolyte of Trump’s who has yet to concede defeat, peddled the false claim that Brazil’s electronic voting system was prone to fraud, spawning a violent movement of election deniers.Around 6.30 p.m. local time, some three hours after the initial reports of the invasion, security forces managed to retake the three buildings, Globo News reported. TV images showed dozens of rioters being led away in handcuffs. Click here to read…

Turkey says relations with China have soured over Uyghur issue

Turkey has seen a dent in its relationship with China, its top diplomat has said, attributing the deterioration to Ankara’s determination not to extradite Turkic Uyghur dissidents to China. While some have dismissed the statement as an election stance to show that the government is determined to defend fellow Turkic Muslims, the sensitive topic has the potential to create a new rupture between Beijing and Ankara. “It is true that there is a slowdown in relations with China,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters at his end-of-year news conference on Dec. 29 in Ankara. “But this is stemming from China,” he added, noting that Beijing constantly requests the extradition of Uyghurs, even some who are Turkish citizens. “We give none of them,” he insisted, saying that social media rumours of Turkey extraditing Uyghur dissidents to China or deporting to third countries that are more willing to extradite them to China are “all lies.” The Uyghurs of China’s westernmost Xinjiang autonomous region share ethnic, religious and linguistic ties with people in Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan. Turkey is thought to house the largest Uyghur diaspora outside Central Asia, at roughly 50,000. “From the Balkans to Uyghur Turks, Crimean Tatars, Iraqi and Syrian Turkmens, to the Turks of western Thrace to Meskhetian Turks (in Georgia), we have been on the side of our kinsmen,” Cavusoglu said at the news conference. Click here to read…

China, Turkmenistan elevate ties to comprehensive strategic partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with visiting Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov in Beijing on Jan 06, during which the two heads of state announced the elevation of China-Turkmenistan relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and underlined key aspects for further expansion of cooperation. The elevation marks a new milestone in bilateral relations, fully demonstrating the long tradition of friendship and both sides’ high hopes for its future development, observers said. From the joint statement issued after the top leaders’ meeting, observers saw great momentum for the two countries to diversify and deepen cooperation beyond energy, innovate communication and cooperation mechanisms and jointly safeguard regional peace, stability and development. Prior to the two leaders’ talks at the Great Hall of the People, 21 cannon shots were fired at Tian’anmen Square as a salute to welcome Serdar Berdimuhamedov, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Xi emphasized that the two sides should support each other on issues concerning their core interests and respect each other’s pursuit of a development path suited to their own national conditions. It is important for the two countries to synergize their development strategies at a faster pace, make full use of such mechanisms as the China-Turkmenistan Cooperation Committee, and continue to expand the breadth and depth of cooperation, in order to create underpinnings for bilateral relations with tangible cooperation outcomes. Click here to read…

Iran regime divided on how to tackle protests: analysts

Iran’s Islamic clerical regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say. “The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests,” said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver. “In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves” who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said. The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach. But a reminder of the hardline tack came Jan 07 when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest. Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck. The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the Islamic regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah. Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead. Click here to read…

Taiwan missiles at the mercy of China supply chains

In an ironic and game-changing twist, Beijing may be maintaining the missiles Taiwan relies upon to deter a potential China invasion and assault. This week, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan had sent a critical component of its Hsiung Feng III supersonic anti-ship missile to Qingdao in China for repairs. The report identifies the component in question as a theodolite, a precision instrument used to measure angles in horizontal and vertical planes that play a crucial role in missile launches. Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) purchased theodolite in 2021 from Swiss company Leica and recently sent it back to the manufacturer for repairs. The source notes that the theodolite’s memory cards were removed and that NCSIST asked the agent involved to send the component to Switzerland. However, the source notes that upon return it was discovered that the theodolite had been sent to Qingdao, with Leica saying that its maintenance center for Asia is in that city, hence the component was sent there for the requested repairs. Concerned about a conflict of interests, NCSIST performed checks on the theodolite to ensure China had not installed any malware, the SCMP report said. It also stated that, in the aftermath of the incident, NCSIST is discussing measures to prevent sensitive equipment from being shipped to China for repairs and maintenance for national security concerns. Click here to read…

Saudi Arabia Signals It Could Provide Pakistan an $11 Billion Lifeline

Saudi Arabia said Jan 10 that it was considering providing up to $11 billion to Pakistan, a potential lifeline to a country facing default. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar in recent months have said they might also offer help to Pakistan, with potential loans and investments from Gulf nations now totalling at least $22 billion after the latest announcement from Riyadh. Gulf countries have said they could extend a similar level of support to Egypt, which is also struggling economically. The support from Saudi Arabia could strengthen Pakistan’s hand in negotiating a restart to a stalled bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Islamabad has so far been unwilling to agree to the IMF’s terms for a deal, which include raising electricity and gasoline prices and increasing taxes. The country’s foreign-currency reserves are fast running out, with financial markets hoping that the IMF programme can be put back on track within days. Pakistan has only around $4.5 billion in official foreign-currency reserves, financial analysts estimate. In January and February this year it is due to repay debt of $6.4 billion, according to figures from the central bank. By December, it must repay a further $12.8 billion, according to the central bank. The news followed a visit by Pakistan’s new army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, to Saudi Arabia, where he met Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Click here to read…

Health

‘Pandemic potential’: bird flu outbreaks fuelling chance of human spillover

Multiple waves of avian influenza have left a trail of devastation across the globe, leading to the deaths and culling of more than 300 million chickens, ducks and geese and an unknown number of wild birds between 2005 and 2021. Today, with parts of Europe and North America in the midst of the worst outbreak on record, a global cohort of researchers is keeping cautious watch amid concerns about the impact the disease could have on humans. “There is concern about it having pandemic potential,” says Wendy Blay Puryear, a molecular virologist at Tufts University. “Before Covid was on anybody’s radar, this was the one that we were all watching very closely.” The virus is currently considered a low risk to humans, she says. “But anything that has the ability to replicate and evolve rapidly, and anything that has that ability to infect a lot of different hosts is kind of on borrowed time.” Much of the focus of experts is on H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza that has fuelled, in part, the surge in cases around the world. First identified at a goose farm in Guangdong, China in 1996, the virus has turned up in at least 63 species of wild birds and has shown itself capable of infecting mammals such as bobcats, harbour seals and bears. Click here to read…

Chinese officials say Covid peak has passed in many places but aren’t so open about death toll

In the past two days, one local government after another has announced it has already passed the peak of Covid-19 infections, and estimated daily new case numbers would start to decline. Given its transmissibility, it is not surprising the virus swept through the population in less than a month after China relaxed Covid restrictions. Chinese state media said earlier the basic reproduction number (R0) of the Omicron strains circulating in China was between 10 and 18, meaning without intervention a positive case could infect 10 to 18 people. A Xinhua article published on Jan 08 quoted Xu Wenbo, head of the China CDC’s National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, as saying the Covid R0 in China reached 21 – even more transmissible than measles, which supposedly has the highest R0. However, reaching the peak so quickly is not good news. Overseas experts have long urged Beijing to devise an exit strategy, especially as figures from other places, including Hong Kong, are available as a reference. An exit strategy aims to flatten the curve, allowing the virus to sweep across the population more slowly to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The survival rate could be much higher if the sick, especially the elderly, get sufficient care. But that hinges on the available capacity of the healthcare system. Click here to read…

Economic

A Crisis Is Looming For the U.S. Energy Grid

As U.S. energy infrastructure continues to go largely neglected and city populations keep rising, certain regions of America are under threat of electricity shortages for several years to come. In addition to inadequate energy infrastructure, the rise of renewable power sources and the growing countrywide energy demand are putting pressure on the grid like never before. The Midwest and South-Central U.S. appear to be most at risk of electricity shortages according to a recent analysis. These regions fall into the “high risk” and “elevated risk” categories. The shortages are most likely to be seen during peak energy usage times, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). There is a multitude of reasons for the shortages, largely centered around America’s aging energy infrastructure. At present, across the Midwest, a larger quantity of power generation is going offline than new electricity being brought online. This has meant shortages in the region since 2018. In contrast, California uses a wide mix of electricity sources, including renewable energy options such as solar power, which is not consistent. In addition, the demand varies throughout the day, with peak times failing to coincide with high-solar power output times. The energy issues have also been spurred by a general global shortage of LNG following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy. Click here to read…

Russia Didn’t Consult With OPEC+ Over Price Cap Retaliation

Russia has the sovereign right to respond to the G7 oil price cap, and it hasn’t consulted with OPEC+ over the response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Dec 28. On Dec 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin banned the sale of Russian oil to countries that have joined the so-called Price Cap Coalition and comply with the cap imposed by the Western countries. The Russian move was weeks in the making and follows the start of the price cap mechanism that the G7, the EU, and Australia implemented on December 5. The EU and G7 banned maritime transportation services from shipping Russia’s crude oil to third countries if the oil is bought above the price cap of $60 per barrel, and the EU imposed an embargo on seaborne imports of Russian oil into the bloc. A decree signed by Putin on Dec 27 bans the sale of Russian oil to countries that comply with the price cap and will be in effect from February 1 to July 1, 2023. Russia has the right to respond to “illegal measures” as it sees fit, Putin’s spokesman Peskov said today. While Russia hasn’t consulted fellow OPEC+ producers over its response to the price cap, Moscow and the other members of the group are in contact on other issues, Peskov added. Click here to read…

Putin inspects Russian defense industry ‘capital’

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with top defense industry executives in Tula on Dec 23, laying out his expectations for supplying the military in 2023 amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The president also reminded them of a practice successfully developed in fighting against Islamic State terrorists in Syria. “The most important and key objective of the defense industry is to provide our frontline units with all the necessary weapons, vehicles, ammunition and equipment, of the required quality and in the required numbers. On a short deadline,” he said. The second objective will be to “improve and substantially upgrade” the performance of certain weapons systems, in line with the experiences gained in the fighting in Ukraine, the Russian president added. Industry specialists are working “right on the frontlines” to repair any damaged equipment and evaluate its combat performance, Putin pointed out. This is then transmitted back to the factories, where their colleagues make the recommended improvements. This practice must remain efficient and become permanent, he added. “We began doing this a while back, when we used our weapons against the terrorist groups in Syria,” Putin said. “I know that your employees also went to Syria. They made decisions on the spot. They did a good job then and continue doing a good job now.” Click here to read…

Biden signs $858bn defense bill including funds for Taiwan, allies

U.S. President Joe Biden on Dec 23 signed into law an $858 billion defense policy bill set to increase security cooperation with Taiwan by providing billions in aid over the coming years, while continuing to invest in alliances and partnerships amid China’s assertiveness and Russian threats. The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2023 through next September authorizes about 10 percent more in spending than last year’s budget, with $11.5 billion eyed for an initiative to enhance U.S. deterrence and defence in the Indo-Pacific. The law increased the authorized defense funding by $45 billion above Biden’s budget request, partly to address the effects of inflation, according to a summary of the bill issued by the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services earlier this month. It focuses on “the most vital national security priorities for the United States, including strategic competition with China and Russia,” the summary said. As Taiwan faces growing pressure from China, which endeavours to bring the self-ruled democratic island back into its fold, by force if necessary, the legislation authorized up to $10 billion in security assistance over the next five years to modernize Taiwan’s security capabilities to deter aggression by Beijing. Taiwan and mainland China have been governed separately since they split in 1949 due to a civil war. Click here to read…

Soaring energy prices cost EU $1 trillion – Bloomberg

EU member states have spent roughly a trillion dollars (€940 billion) in the face of the bloc’s worst energy crisis in decades; Bloomberg is reporting on Dec 18, citing calculations based on market data. Soaring energy prices have sent its economies plunging into recession as most member states opted to stop importing gas from Russia, facing the necessity to turn to more expensive supplies. The agency highlighted that the total estimated losses marks just the beginning of a full-scale crisis, as a period of high prices for energy could last years, while aid is already becoming unaffordable.The security of energy supply is expected to remain an issue beyond next winter after the filled gas storage facilities across the region are emptied. The nations of the EU will have to refill their gas reserves for the next cold season with no deliveries from Russia, which also heats up competition for tankers. Even with more import terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) coming online, the crisis will reportedly loosen its grip only in 2026, when additional production capacity from the US or Qatar becomes available. At the same time, prices should remain high to attract LNG away from other buyers from energy-hungry Asian buyers.A state of emergency could linger for years, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, as quoted by Bloomberg. Click here to read…

Russia top destination for Ukrainian refugees – report

Ukrainian refugees fleeing their homeland in 2022 have resettled in Russia more than any other country, according to a report by Statista published last week. It revealed some 2,852,395 people had left their conflict-stricken homeland for the neighbouring country as of October. Trailing Russia in a distant second is Poland, which hosted 1,529,355 Ukrainian refugees as of December. Another 1,021,667 have fled to Germany as of November, while Czechia is home to 467,862, according to numbers from earlier this month. While Russia and Poland border Ukraine and thus present closer destinations for its inhabitants, Germany has attracted an outsized number of displaced people with its large financial support payments, which amounted to €449 ($475) per month as of June. Poland, by comparison, offered just over €15 ($16). Since the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in February, 4.8 million Ukrainians have registered for the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive, which assures refugees access to living quarters, healthcare, welfare and other benefits, or other European refugee schemes. More than 7.8 million Ukrainians have been displaced this year in the conflict, which grew out of the previous eight years of fighting between the Western-backed government in Kiev and what were then the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Click here to read…

Companies from Europe make up 44 of top 100 overseas investors in China: Hurun report

Companies from Europe account for nearly half of the top 100 overseas investors in China, according to a report released by the Hurun Research Institute on Dec 21, which highlights the close bilateral relationship between China and Europe. The report, called the Hurun Largest Foreign & HK/Macao/Taiwan Companies in China 2022, includes a list of the top 100 firms from these areas that made the greatest contribution to the economy, based on their sales and number of employees in the Chinese mainland. This is the second year the list has been produced. Companies on the list recorded combined sales of $1 trillion in the Chinese mainland last year, equivalent to 7 percent of the country’s GDP. The companies employed just under 3 million people in China, at an average of 30,000 employees per company. In terms of business model, 59 percent are direct-to-consumer, while 41percent are business-to-business firms. Overall, 81percent sold physical products and 19 percent sold software or services. The top 10 on the list are Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Volkswagen, Apple, General Motors, Charoen Pokphand, HSBC, Robert Bosch, Toyota Motor, Samsung Electronics and BMW. By country, the largest number of companies is from the US, followed by Japan, the UK, Germany and France, with the top five countries accounting for more than 80 percent of the Top 100. By continent, Europe contributed nearly half of the Top 100, Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher Rupert Hoogewerf said. Click here to read…

Chinese firms urged to look overseas as Covid supply chain disruptions drive friendshoring trend

China should encourage its companies – including platform firms – to participate in the regrouping of overseas industrial chains, as many developed countries look to reshore or friendshore production, a senior state researcher has said. The call from Zhuo Xian, senior fellow at the Development Research Centre of the State Council, or China’s cabinet, comes as Beijing anticipates a more turbulent international environment in the coming year. The headwinds faced by China include a potential global recession, bigger efforts to contain its technological advancements, and rising trade protectionism. But China holds a key advantage – a significant role in global supply chains, accounting for about one-third of the world’s industrial output. This is likely to prevent the US from total economic decoupling, though fresh challenges for China include an unprecedented surge in Covid-19 infections and other points of international rivalry. “Chinese companies should go out further,” Zhuo said in an interview with The Paper, a Shanghai-based digital daily, published on Dec 23. “If we don’t do it, we risk giving up our leadership in global production networks.” Chinese policymakers have long sought to maintain the smooth operation of industrial chains to ensure global supplies remain steady. They have also continued to roll out the red carpet for foreign investors, as part of an endeavour to consolidate China’s status as the world’s manufacturing hub. Click here to read…

China’s debt distress among local governments seen rising in 2023, with hard-to-reach economic targets

With questions mounting as to whether China’s policymakers will be able to continue supporting economic growth by spending more, some analysts say financial distress could rise next year even in the nation’s affluent eastern region that includes Shanghai. That powerhouse region, which has been a driving force behind China’s economic growth over the past few decades, was hit hard by months-long lockdowns earlier this year. And while analysts note that Beijing’s recent U-turn in zero-Covid policy will support economic growth, they also warn that local governments may not see a quick uptick in income from taxes or land sales. Meanwhile, their debt is rising. “The overall tax revenue in the eastern region is in a sluggish trend. Under the continuous impact of the outbreaks, the economic recovery of the eastern provinces and cities is slow,” a note by the Topsperity Securities financial group said last week. China’s international hub, Shanghai, which resorted to widespread lockdowns to stamp out coronavirus infections, plans to tap into its fiscal reserves amid a revenue shortfall, local finance authorities said last month. The city government has already asked the central government for more money – to the tune of 16.7 billion yuan (US$2.4 billion) – while slashing local spending by 4.3 billion yuan to trim its funding cap. Click here to read…

‘China has turned the corner’: foreign business groups welcome post-Covid reopening plan

China’s latest reopening plan will help to rebuild foreign investors’ confidence in the Chinese market and go some way to repairing external relations, according to foreign business groups in the country. Beijing announced on Dec 26 that it was dropping centralised quarantine and most Covid-19 testing for inbound travellers from January 8, making its biggest move yet to reopening its borders. It also said it would gradually resume international flights and smooth visa applications for businesspeople, students and family reunions. Foreign business groups welcomed the decision, given quarantine and travel restrictions had been their major concern over the past three years of the pandemic. Colm Rafferty, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in China, said the end to quarantine “clears the way for resumption of normal business travel”. “It finally feels as if China has turned the corner,” Rafferty said. Jens Hildebrandt, executive director of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, said the announcement was welcome because the situation was “crushing business confidence” among German companies this year. “Trust in doing business in China will return if the Chinese government takes decisive action to revitalise the economy and further facilitates business travel,” he said. Since the pandemic erupted three years ago, China has imposed tough controls to prevent the spread of the virus, including quarantine and compulsory PCR testing, fewer incoming flights and suspension of outbound travel. Click here to read…

Kishida Cabinet set to drastically alter post-2011 nuclear policy

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet is preparing for a major change in its nuclear policy that would mean utilizing the energy source much more and far into the future. The basic direction for bringing about a green transformation toward a carbon-neutral future will be using nuclear energy as much as possible, according to the draft of a proposal for nuclear energy policy compiled on Dec. 22. This would alter provisions in place since the triple meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in 2011. It means that not only will nuclear reactors be allowed to operate 60 years after they started operations; constructing new nuclear plants will again be on the table. A meeting on Dec. 22 to discuss the move toward a carbon-neutral society by 2050 saw the approval of the draft, and the Cabinet is expected to give its approval early next year. After the Fukushima disaster, the government stance had been that it was not considering building new nuclear plants. Under the new basic policy direction draft, however, constructing next-generation nuclear plants would be considered when a reactor is to be decommissioned. The draft also calls for considering adding new reactors to existing nuclear plants. The other major change pertains to the operating life of reactors.

A new rule after the Fukushima disaster was that reactors would only be allowed to operate for 40 years, with a one-time extension of 20 years, at most. Click here to read…

Suppliers pulling out of defense industry despite new arms push in Japan

Key Japanese defense contractors, citing low profitability margins and export curbs, are pulling out of the industry even as the government forges ahead with a historic increase in spending to bolster national security. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has ordered defense spending to rise to 43 trillion yen ($312 billion) over the five years through fiscal 2027 to bring such outlays to the equivalent of 2 percent of gross domestic product, about double the current figure. Shimadzu Corp. is among major players considering an exit from the sector. “We are, unfortunately, struggling in the defense business,” Shimadzu President Yasunori Yamamoto told a news conference to announce the company’s settlement of accounts in November. “I don’t believe there will be a dramatic rebound leading to a vigorous growth in sales.”At Shimadzu’s aircraft equipment business arm, defense-related sales account for 80 percent of the total. The manufacturer classifies the business arm as one “for reorganization,” where the lowest priority is assigned with regard to the allocation of management resources. The company supplies flight-deck displays for Self-Defense Forces aircraft, among other products. Its proceeds from the defense arm have stalled at around 20 billion yen annually in recent years. Yamamoto said the company will be “considering all options” and is not ruling out a business handover or a tie-up with other companies. Click here to read…

China’s Xinjiang obfuscates trade data after U.S. import ban

The local government in China’s Xinjiang region has scrubbed detailed data on monthly exports from its customs website after the U.S. slapped a ban on shipments over forced labour concerns. However, the breakdown of shipments can still be accessed through the national government’s customs portal. Far-western Xinjiang — where China stands accused of committing widespread human rights violations against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities — is a hub for agricultural staples and raw materials. It is also the country’s top cotton producer.Until August, the local government published monthly trade data that included details such as the value and volume of exports from the region with product descriptions and destination countries providing a clear snapshot of where products would be shipped to. Similar specifics about imports into Xinjiang were also made public. The latest data for August showed shipments to the U.S. had doubled to $56 million, a 592% jump from a year earlier. But those comprehensive figures have not been published for the past three months on Xinjiang’s local customs website. Data published on the Urumqi Customs website now only reveals total value and forms of shipments, types of trade and whether the companies involved are foreign, state-owned or private. But the central government’s customs portal revealed Xinjiang exports to the U.S. dropped in October to $24.7 million. Click here to read…

Japan Inflation Hits Four-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank in 2023

Japan’s core inflation rose at the fastest pace in nearly 41 years in November, fuelling market speculation that the Bank of Japan would look to tighten monetary policy in 2023. After the central bank’s surprise move Dec 20 to raise its cap on a key interest rate, market watchers are split over whether more is coming next year. But they agree inflation will be a key factor in the decision.Core consumer prices—a measure that covers all prices except fresh food—rose 3.7% from a year earlier in November, the fastest pace since December 1981, government data showed Dec 23. Beneath the headline figure are other signs that Japan has broken out of its decades long rut of near-zero price changes. If so, that would give the Bank of Japan more room to consider fully unwinding the easing framework that Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda has built up after nearly a decade on the job. Mr. Kuroda’s policies include negative short-term rates and a cap on the yield of the 10-year government bond. On Dec 20, the bank raised that cap to 0.5% from 0.25%, driving up interest rates across the board. Daiwa Securities economist Mari Iwashita said the framework could be up for review as soon as next summer under a new BOJ governor. Mr. Kuroda’s term expires in April, after two more policy meetings, and he is expected to step down. Click here to read…

Unionization Stalls at Amazon as Turnover, Company Efforts Stymie Activism

When thousands of workers at an Amazon Inc. warehouse in New York voted to unionize earlier this year, Nannette Plascencia thought her facility east of Los Angeles could be among those to vote next. She spent months organizing with other employees, holding meetings and passing out fliers outside her warehouse in Moreno Valley, Calif. In October, shortly after filing to hold a union election, Ms. Plascencia and other supporters learned they didn’t have enough proof of support for federal officials to call an election. “It’s hard to get to all of our co-workers,” Ms. Plascencia said, referring to the more than 2,000 employees who work at the warehouse, one of several in the area. Labour activists were filled with anticipation after Amazon employees in Staten Island, New York, voted in April to unionize, marking a victory for organizers at one of the country’s most powerful technology companies. The challenges Ms. Plascencia has faced haven’t been unique. Thousands of workers at three other Amazon facilities, two in New York and one in Alabama, have voted against unionization this year, and organizing work at other Amazon facilities has failed to gain traction. In interviews, Amazon workers said that was largely because of high turnover and what some see as relatively good pay and benefits at the tech company’s warehouses compared with similar work elsewhere. Click here to read…

Strategic

Explainer |Ukraine war: what is Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan?

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has been vigorously promoting his 10-point peace plan, discussing it with US President Joe Biden among others, and urging world leaders to hold a Global Peace Summit based on it. What is Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan? Zelensky first announced his peace formula at a November summit of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies. The plan calls for:1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now-Russian occupied. 2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to the world’s poorest nations. 3. Energy security, with focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks. 4. Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia. 5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, which Zelensky said is “not up to negotiations”. 6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia. 7. Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes. 8. Ecocide, protection of environment, with focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities. 9. Prevention of escalation of conflict and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine. 10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties. Click here to read…

Kremlin assesses Zelensky-Biden meeting

Washington seems intent on waging a proxy war against Russia using Ukraine as a tool, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said. He added that the main takeaway from Dec 21’s meeting between the two countries’ leaders is that neither the US nor Ukraine is prepared to pay attention to Russia’s concerns. “Of course, we were following this [meeting], we were getting acquainted with all the incoming information,” Peskov told journalists on Dec 22. He added that in Moscow’s eyes, “neither President [Joe] Biden nor President [Vladimir] Zelensky uttered any words that could be construed as, so to speak, potential readiness to take heed of Russia’s concerns.” The Kremlin spokesperson went on to lament the fact that the US president had failed to warn his Ukrainian colleague against shelling residential areas in Donbass. He also said that neither side called for peace. According to Peskov, the US is continuing to wage war against Russia indirectly, “to the last Ukrainian.” He also noted that further weapons deliveries from the US and other countries will only serve to prolong the suffering of the Ukrainian people. On Dec 21, Zelensky arrived in Washington for his first official foreign visit since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February. During his meeting with Biden at the White House, the US president pledged to back Kiev for “as long as it takes.” Click here to read…

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin said on Dec 22 that Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine and that this would inevitably involve a diplomatic solution. Putin made the comments a day after U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House and promised him continued and unwavering U.S. support. “Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war,” Putin said. “We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course.” White House spokesman John Kirby said Putin has “shown absolutely zero indication that he’s willing to negotiate” an end to the war, which began when Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. Kirby reiterated that Biden was open to talks with Putin, but only after the Russian leader “showed a seriousness about negotiations” and after consultations with Ukraine and U.S. allies. Russia has persistently said it is open to negotiations, but Ukraine and its allies suspect a ploy to buy time after a series of Russian defeats and retreats that have swung the momentum of the 10-month war in favour of Kyiv.”I have said many times: the intensification of hostilities leads to unjustified losses,” Putin told reporters. “All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track,” he added. Click here to read…

Japan’s manpower-light defense strategy is a flawed ‘paper plan,’ officers say

Japan’s plan to undertake its biggest military build-up since World War Two without increasing headcount is flawed, former and serving officers told Reuters, casting doubt over the country’s efforts to deter regional rivals China and North Korea. The five-year plan unveiled on Dec 23 will double Japan’s defense spending and add new capabilities, including long-range missiles and an expanded cyber warfare unit. It will not, however, boost the size of its military, called the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), above a ceiling of 247,000 people set more than a decade ago. Instead, it will retire attack helicopters, search-and-rescue planes and old warships in favour of drones and vessels that require fewer sailors, while also relying on civilian contractors for training and some limited support operations. “It is just a paper plan and that should be corrected,” said Yoji Koda, a retired navy admiral, who commanded the Japanese fleet in 2007-2008. “Manpower is the real issue for Japan to defend against China and North Korea,” he added. Koda said the plan would limit Japan’s ability to fight in situations such as land invasions and sea battles, giving its foes an advantage. Some serving officers also doubt the practicalities of the plan. While pivoting to drones could avoid casualties in combat, such a move would take years and require more staff to maintain and operate them, one senior officer in Japan’s air force told Reuters, requesting anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media. Click here to read…

Australian minister in China after long break in relations

Australia’s foreign minister is in China for talks seeking to mend a long break in high-level ties that have prompted trade sanctions and political frictions. On arriving in Beijing, Penny Wong thanked China for the invitation, which comes on the anniversary of 50 years of official diplomatic relations between the nations. Wong said she looked forward to meetings “discussing many of the issues that are important to us.” She was due to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi later Dec 21. Wong’s visit is the first by an Australian foreign minister to China in four years and is raising hopes that Australia will make progress on ending China’s blocks on Australian commodity imports and freeing two Australian citizens detained in China. Wong said she would continue to advocate for detained Australians, without giving details. Wong’s trip furthers a tentative thaw in relations between the two nations since Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won an election victory in May, replacing the more conservative Scott Morrison in the top role. Albanese and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit last month in Bali, the first such formal meeting between the leaders of the two nations in six years. Relations between Australia and China have been poor since China imposed trade barriers and refused high-level exchanges in response to Australia enacting rules targeting foreign interference in its domestic politics and calling for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic. Click here to read…

PLA drills around Taiwan break August record targeting US move

The joint drills by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around the island of Taiwan on Dec 25 in response to the recent escalation in the US-Taiwan collusion were record-breaking, surpassing even the peak number observed in the large-scale PLA drills held in August following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taiwan, as the PLA again demonstrated its capabilities in blockading the island and shutting down all external interference attempts, experts said on Dec 26. After announcing the cross-service joint combat alert patrols and joint fire strike exercises in maritime and aerial areas around the island of Taiwan on Dec 25, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command on Dec 26 released a video documenting the operation. Fighter jets, bombers and warships took part in the drills, and the warplanes were close enough to the island of Taiwan to see the island’s Central Mountain Range with the naked eye, according to the video. “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and our operation aims to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. We will take any necessary countermeasure,” a naval officer said in a radio broadcast on board a warship, the video shows.The armed forces on the island of Taiwan were able to detect 71 PLA warplanes, and seven PLA warships were observed around the island from 6 am on Dec 25 to 6 am on Dec 26, according to a press release on Dec 26 by the island’s defense authority. Click here to read…

Xi-Medvedev meeting highlights bilateral ties; could promote ‘more profound and actual progress of peace talks’

Chinese President Xi Jinping, also the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, on Dec 21 met with Chairman of the United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev, who visited China at the invitation of the CPC. The two sides highlighted the high level of China-Russia relations and discussed the Ukraine crisis, with experts expecting the move could promote progress in peace talks. The meeting also took place coincidently at a time when the two countries’ navies kicked off a joint exercise, which analysts said reflects the two countries’ mutual trust and will contribute to peace and stability. While requesting Medvedev convey kind regards and best wishes to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi said the institutionalized exchanges between the CPC and the United Russia party over the long term have become a unique channel and platform for the two countries to consolidate political mutual trust, promote mutually beneficial cooperation, and demonstrate strategic coordination. Xi noted that over the past decade, China-Russia relations have withstood the test of international changes and maintained sound, steady and high-level development. He said that developing a China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is a long-term strategic choice that the two sides have made based on their respective national conditions. China is ready to work with Russia to push forward China-Russia relations in the new era and make global governance more just and equitable, Xi said. Click here to read…

US Space Force practices for war in Europe

The US Space Force has conducted joint drills with UK, Canada and Australia – the largest such exercises in its history – to hone its readiness for a hypothetical war in Europe, according to a statement by the Space Training and Readiness Command (STAR). Three so-called Space Flag 23-1 drills, each lasting two days, were conducted earlier this month at Schriever Space Force Base in Colorado. The exercises enabled participants to practice “orbital warfare techniques, our electronic warfare techniques, our space-domain-awareness techniques and intelligence command,” Space Force Lieutenant Colonel Albert Harris said. “This Space Flag focused on a US European Command scenario, so we wanted to present the problem in that theatre and exercise our ability to win it based off of various problems that we presented to the team,” Harris added. The event marked the first Space Force drills that practiced for European war and just happened to come amid escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Harris said planning for the exercises began in February, the same month in which Russia began its military operation in Ukraine. Troops were given Europe-specific problems to solve during mission planning and practiced procedures to increase their readiness to win a conflict on the continent, but the exact scenarios remain a mystery. Colonel Jason Schramm said the drills enabled US forces and coalition partners to practice their space combat tactics. Click here to read…

Iran and EU signal continued work on nuclear deal in Jordan

The top foreign policy representatives of Iran and the European Union have signalled that efforts to restore the country’s 2015 nuclear deal will continue, after they held a meeting in Jordan. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell sat down on the sidelines of the second meeting of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership hosted by Jordan’s King Abdullah on Dec 20. Iran’s top negotiator in the nuclear talks, Ali Bagheri Kani, and the bloc’s coordinator, Enrique Mora, were also present. Borrell wrote on Twitter following the meeting that it was a “necessary” talk amid “deteriorating Iran-EU relations”. “Stressed need to immediately stop military support to Russia and internal repression in Iran” he wrote, adding that the two sides agreed to keep talking with the aim of restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known. Talks in Vienna to restore the deal that the United States unilaterally abandoned in 2018 began in April 2021 and have faced a deadlock since early September, when Western officials claim Tehran presented demands beyond the deal – something Iran denies.Protests that erupted in mid-September and the new sanctions the EU and the US have since imposed on Tehran over a “brutal suppression” of protesters, in addition to those levelled to punish Tehran’s alleged supply of drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine, have made prospects of actual progress unlikely. Click here to read…

Iranian Government Relies on Loyal Supporters as Bulwark against Protests

When Revolutionary Guard member Mohammed Zareh Mowaydi was killed fighting Iranian protesters last month, the military broadcast footage of his body, with a cleric holding up the dead man’s right hand—rough from years as a farmer. “Show us your palms,” the cleric shouted, addressing protest supporters. “You, who claim to free our people, are your palms covered in calluses, too?” Mr. Mowaydi was among thousands of staunch Islamic Republic supporters that the government is counting on to stop a three-month-old protest movement. From the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, to less formal militias, these loyalists have fought demonstrators in the streets, stood up for the Islamic Republic’s values and in some cases, died for them. About one in five Iranians say they support the current system, according to polls carried out in the country by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran, a non-profit research foundation in the Netherlands. The government empowers this minority—often from economically humble, socially conservative backgrounds—with perks, jobs and guns, making it a force for maintaining the status quo. “There is a thin but hard-core infrastructure that is deeply loyal,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East North Africa program at Britain’s Royal Institute of International Affairs, or Chatham House. Without these supporters, she said, “the regime would fracture.” Click here to read…

Iran Moves to Consolidate Its Grip on Iraq’s Oil Sector

Iran has long held enormous political, economic, and military sway over neighbouring Iraq through its various military and political proxies, and since the discovery of vast reservoirs of oil in Iran first in the early 1900s and shortly after in Iraq, Tehran has an added incentive to retain this influence and to enhance it. With Iran’s longstanding former superpower ally, Russia, now looking to build out its remaining influence south of Europe, there is another reason for Iran to strengthen its ties with Iraq. In precisely this context, the last few weeks have seen a flurry of activity from Iran directed to doing just this, ranging from repeated military attacks against the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north of Iraq to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry setting up a fully-fledged office in downtown Baghdad. At the same time as the office was being set up, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil issued a circular to all Iraqi companies announcing the readiness of Iranian specialised companies to participate in Iraq’s oil and gas projects. Much more is to come. Two factors surrounding the several recent missile and drone attacks by Iran on the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) are apposite to note. The first is the attacks have been roundly condemned by the U.S. on each occasion. The second is that Iran has justified the attacks as a response to terrorist acts being carried out by dissidents attempting to undermine the Islamic regime in Iran. Click here to read…

Turkey, Saudi Arabia condemn Taliban’s university ban for women

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have strongly condemned the Taliban’s nationwide ban on women attending private and public universities. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Dec 22 that the ban was “neither Islamic nor humane”. Speaking at a joint news conference with his Yemeni counterpart, Cavusoglu urged the Taliban to reverse the decision. “What harm is there in women’s education? What harm does it do to Afghanistan?” Cavusoglu said. “Is there an Islamic explanation? On the contrary, our religion, Islam, is not against education; on the contrary, it encourages education and science.” The Saudi foreign ministry expressed “astonishment and regret” at Afghan women being denied a university education. In a statement late on Dec 21, the ministry said the decision was “astonishing in all Islamic countries”. They became the latest Muslim-majority countries to do so after Qatar, which has served as a mediator between the United States and the Taliban, criticised the decision. There has also been domestic opposition to the ban, with a dozen women staging a protest in the streets of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, on Dec 22, chanting for freedom and equality. “All or none, Don’t be afraid. We are together,” they chanted. The Taliban retook control of the country in August 2021 after being removed from power by a US-led military coalition two decades earlier. Click here to read…

Southeast Asia nations boosting submarine orders amid US-China rivalry

Southeast Asian nations increasingly view submarine development as a necessity for their security amid changing geopolitical realities, but while some analysts say the move is “logical and necessary”, others have questioned the usefulness of the vessels due to exorbitant costs and the disadvantages of manoeuvring through regional waters. Within the region, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Myanmar currently have submarines, while Thailand and the Philippines are in the process of acquiring them. Earlier this month, Singapore embarked on its next phase of submarine development with the newly built Invincible-class submarines made in Germany. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said during the launch that given the island state’s status as a maritime nation, its navy had a crucial mission of ensuring its survival and keeping open its sea lines of communication. Aristyo Darmawan, lecturer in international law at the University of Indonesia, said the growing acquisition of submarines by Southeast Asian countries was driven by the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. The US has some 66 submarines, including more than 50 nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative. China is said to possess six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 46 diesel-powered attack submarines, according to a US Defence report issued last year. Click here to read…

Indonesia and Vietnam agree on EEZ boundaries in South China Sea

Indonesia and Vietnam have concluded talks to demarcate the boundaries of their exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea, Indonesia’s presidential office said Dec 22. The zones declared by the two countries were among the topics discussed as Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo welcomed visiting Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc for a summit at the Bogor presidential palace in West Java.”After carrying out intensive negotiations for 12 years, Indonesia and Vietnam have finally been able to conclude negotiations regarding the EEZ boundary lines of the two countries,” Widodo said after the meeting. Indonesia and Vietnam had claimed overlapping EEZ boundaries in the South China Sea, causing political tension for both nations. Indonesia’s coast guard has been cracking down on Vietnamese fishing vessels operating in the area claimed by Jakarta surrounding the Natuna Islands. Both countries also are engaged in separate standoffs against China, which is building island bases in the South China Sea as part of its expansionist activities in the region. Vietnam is locked in a territorial dispute with China while Indonesia is at odds with Beijing over natural resources around Natuna. Settling their differences over EEZ borders, Jakarta and Hanoi aim to coordinate their engagement with China. Click here to read…

ASEAN’s Myanmar rift highlighted as key members skip meeting

Foreign ministers from five of ASEAN’s 10 members met in Thailand Dec 22 to discuss recent developments in Myanmar, even as the rest skipped the meeting amid differing stances on the country’s military rule. Thailand, whose armed forces have strong ties to their counterparts in Myanmar, hosted the unofficial gathering with Myanmar’s military-appointed Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin. Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos also attended. Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos are all close neighbours to Myanmar and have taken a conciliatory stance toward it even after the military took control in February 2021. The other five members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Brunei — were invited to Dec 22’s meeting but did not attend. In April 2021, ASEAN put forth a “five-point consensus” on the situation in Myanmar, including a call for an immediate end to violence. But Myanmar’s military has made little progress on its implementation — and that October, ASEAN blocked representatives from the military government from key meetings. Myanmar may face stronger headwinds within the region after Indonesia, which has continued to urge the country to implement the consensus, takes over as ASEAN’s rotating chair from Cambodia in January. Malaysia said Dec 22 that it “welcomes” the resolution adopted by the United Nations Security Council the day before urging an end to violence in Myanmar and a return to democracy. Click here to read…

Israel produces ‘first-ever’ national intelligence estimate report – media

The Israeli Ministry of Intelligence has prepared a report warning that the world is standing on the precipice of a transition to a new global arrangement, the Jerusalem Post newspaper revealed on Dec 19. The document is being touted as Israel’s first ever national intelligence estimate report. The world will soon face “a series of crises striking simultaneously [that] will reorder the planet’s geopolitics, the place of technology, the economic order and a variety of other disciplines from health to energy,” according to the document. Among Israel’s advantages, the ministry reportedly listed the county’s newfound energy resilience, thanks to the discovery of large offshore natural gas deposits. A team of eight experts formulated recommendations on how the Israeli government could steer the nation through the turmoil and pursue its strategic geopolitical goals, the Post said. Israel will need to carefully balance good relations with the US, with ties to Russia and China, which Washington treats as rivals, the experts are said to have warned.The US accuses the two other nations of undermining the so-called “rules-based order” and wants all of its allies onboard with its strategy for opposing Moscow and Beijing. Israel, despite having a decades-old alliance with Washington, has not been as enthusiastic as some other nations. Click here to read…

Health

Packed ICUs, crowded crematoriums: COVID roils Chinese towns

As China grapples with its first-ever national COVID wave, emergency wards in small cities and towns southwest of Beijing are overwhelmed. Intensive care units are turning away ambulances, relatives of sick people are searching for open beds, and patients are slumped on benches in hospital corridors and lying on floors for a lack of beds. Over two days, AP journalists visited five hospitals and two crematoriums in towns and small cities in Baoding and Langfang prefectures, in central Hebei province. The area was the epicentre of one of China’s first outbreaks after the state loosened COVID controls in November and December. For weeks, the region went quiet, as people fell ill and stayed home. Many have now recovered. Today, markets are bustling, diners pack restaurants and cars are honking in snarling traffic, even as the virus is spreading in other parts of China. In recent days, headlines in state media said the area is “starting to resume normal life.” But life in central Hebei’s emergency wards and crematoriums is anything but normal. Even as the young go back to work and lines at fever clinics shrink, many of Hebei’s elderly are falling into critical condition. It could be a harbinger of what’s to come for the rest of China.The Chinese government has reported only seven COVID deaths since restrictions were loosened dramatically on Dec. 7, bringing the country’s total toll to 5,241. On Dec 20, a Chinese health official said that China only counts deaths from pneumonia or respiratory failure in its official COVID-19 death toll. Click here to read…

Chinese localities distribute free drugs to the public, split packages to meet surging demand amid COVID-19 flare-ups

With the continuous optimization and adjustment of China’s epidemic prevention and control policy, many cities across the country have begun to distribute free drugs including cold and fever medicines to the public and implemented open package dispensing, in a bid to meet spiking demand. The market regulator in Sanya, South China’s Hainan Province organized a total of 18 pharmacies and called for more pharmacies to join the free distribution of fever-reducing drugs. From Dec 21, the administration distributed the first batch of 73,030 fever-reducing pills to local residents, with those in need able to access medication at a nearby pharmacy. Dongguan in South China’s Guangdong Province said that a total of 100,000 ibuprofen tablets had arrived in the city, and will be distributed to 41 state drug stores before Dec 22 this week, before being made available free of charge for those in need. In addition, a number of cities including Zhengzhou, Shangqiu and Zhoukou also handed out anti-epidemic drugs to the market. The department of epidemic prevention and control in Zhoukou has purchased a batch of ibuprofen tablets, saying that from Dec 21, they have entrusted a number of pharmacies with the free distribution of 130,000 tablets, and residents who present an ID card are eligible for 10 tables per day. Click here to read…

Economic

China’s Bei Dou outpaces GPS to become top navigation service provider

China’s Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) has become the top guidance service provider for domestic Gaode Map, according to a statement released by the Beijing Institute of Space Science and Technology Information on Dec 14. Based on the average number of satellites called by domestic navigation apps for each positioning, Bei Dou satellites have been called the most, 30 percent more than the second-ranked GPS, the China Media Group (CMG) reported. Gaode Map has used Bei Dou satellites to make more than 210 billion positioning calls each day. The combination of BDS and map navigation is providing better services to the public, read the statement. Map apps users can check the number of Bei Dou satellites currently offering service in real time during navigation, including each one’s code, azimuth angle, height angle, frequency, signal strength and other factors.Although the news only became public on Dec 14, the BDS has actually long surpassed GPS in serving domestic map apps, Liu Dingding, a Beijing-based veteran market analyst, told the Global Times.Another domestic map giant, Baidu Maps, announced an official switch to the Bei Dou system on September 30, with daily positioning uses exceeding 100 billion for the first time. Bei Dou playing a dominant role in the domestic navigation sector is of great significance. Click here to read…

Goldman Sachs Expects A Bumper Year For Commodities In 2023

Supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply will result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023, Goldman Sachs says, expecting the S&P GSCI commodity index to post a 43% return next year. Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said in a note. “From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote, as carried by The Australian Financial Review. The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new super cycle in commodities. The drop in Brent Crude to the low $80s is likely temporary, according to the Wall Street bank, which says that oil market participants could be too pessimistic about China’s demand. Key metals necessary for the energy transition are also set for a bull run amid expected shortages in the coming years, Goldman and industry giants say. Click here to read…

Türkiye allows passage of oil tankers linked to Russian price cap

Türkiye said Dec 13 that it has cleared a queue of oil tankers waiting to pass the Bosporus and Dardanelle straits as the insurance dispute related to a Western oil price cap on Russian crude is being solved. A total of 22 of the 26 crude oil tankers waiting to pass the Turkish straits delivered the appropriate insurance confirmation letters, and the passage of 19 of them has been completed, Türkiye’s maritime authority said on Dec 13.Only four ships are waiting to provide confirmation letters, including those that have just arrived in the Bosporus, the authority said in a statement. There are no tankers loaded with crude oil waiting for the appropriate insurance confirmation letter in the Marmara and Aegean Seas, it added. Since Dec. 1, Türkiye has started to seek confirmation from the insurance companies that the crude oil tankers to pass through the Turkish Straits are fully insured. Türkiye stopped several tankers carrying crude oil from entering Turkish waters, saying that the Protection and Indemnity (P&I) insurance of these ships was invalid due to the European Union’s sanctions. Click here to read…

Putin plans more gas sales to China, e-platform for European prices

President Vladimir Putin said on Dec 15 that Russia would increase gas supplies to “the East”, particularly China, and set prices for sales to Europe using an electronic platform. Moscow is looking to boost gas sales to countries such as China and Turkey as the Ukraine conflict sours trade with the West but building the infrastructure could take years. In October, Putin floated the idea of setting up a “gas hub” in Turkey following explosions that damaged Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea and halted its direct gas sales to Germany.”Among the key growing consumers of Russian gas are our neighbours, including Turkey … We plan to set up a gas hub in coming years,” Putin told a televised meeting with officials.”But if we are talking about setting up an electronic platform, then this can be done within the next few months. And it is there, to a large extent, that we will determine the final price for our European consumers, because what they have done on their platforms is madness.”Putin has criticized Europe for choosing spot pricing mechanisms for gas instead of long-term contracts, which used to be the backbone of gas exports by Russia’s Gazprom and give the Kremlin-controlled company more certainty.Putin did not give any details of the proposed platform. Click here to read…

EU agrees sanctions relief for Russian businessmen – EUobserver

The European Union will provide sanctions relief to Russian businessmen in charge of fertilizer and chemicals companies, the EUobserver newspaper reported on Dec 15, citing diplomatic sources. According to the report, the last-minute agreement followed 11th-hour ambassadors’ talks on the sidelines of an EU summit in Brussels. It concerns Euro Chem founder Andrey Melnichenko (and his wife Aleksandra), Phos Agro’s CEO Andrey Guryev, Acron Group’s major shareholder Vyacheslav Kantor, Uralchem owner Dmitry Mazepin, as well as Rusagro founder Vadim Moshkovich. They are all currently subjects of existing EU asset freezes and visa bans. Under Dec 15’s deal, individual EU countries will reportedly be able to unfreeze the businessmen’s money if it is “strictly necessary” to expedite shipments of food and fertilizer, especially to Africa.However, EU member states will need to “consult” the EU Commission before they can go ahead, the report says. “While the six Russians will still be the likely beneficiaries of any derogations, their names will not explicitly be referenced in a new EU fertilizer white-list, as in initial EU proposals,” EU observer reports. The agreement comes as a wider EU deal on the ninth round of anti-Russia sanctions was announced on Dec 16. Lithuania and Poland had reportedly threatened to delay the entire scheme if they were forced to take part in an EU-wide unfreezing of the fertilizer tycoons’ fortunes. Click here to read…

Germany spending $500 billion to ‘keep the lights on’ – media

Germany has reportedly allocated nearly $500 billion to shore up its energy supplies and “keep the lights on” since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began last February, but the spending binge might not be enough to weather the crisis. The estimated total cost reflects the “cumulative scale” of energy bailouts and other schemes that Berlin has employed amid surging oil and natural gas prices and the loss of imports from Russia, Reuters reported on Dec 15. The outlet called the various subsidies an “energy bazooka” – equating to $5,400 per resident in Germany, 12% of GDP and an estimated $1.6 billion per day since the conflict in Eastern Europe began – adding that still more spending may be needed. “How severe the crisis will be and how long it will last greatly depends on how the energy crisis will develop,” Michael Gromling, head of macroeconomic research at the German Economic Institute, told Reuters. The national economy as a whole is facing a huge loss of wealth.” The economic effects of the conflict stem largely from anti-Russia sanctions imposed by the US, Germany and other NATO members. However, as Reuters noted, Europe’s biggest economy now finds itself “at the mercy” of the weather. “Energy rationing is a risk in the event of a long cold spell this winter, Germany’s first in half a century without Russian gas,” the outlet pointed out. Click here to read…

Ukraine declares energy emergency

Ukraine’s state-owned energy giant Ukrenergo declared a state of emergency on Dec 16, amid reports of a new wave of Russian missile strikes against the country’s critical infrastructure. The operator reported that it had registered electricity consumption plummeting by more than 50% across the country, with the situation constituting a “system breakdown.” An air raid alert was announced for all parts of Ukraine on Dec 16 morning, as local media and authorities reported explosions in various cities and regions, including in the capital, Kiev. The Mayor of eastern Ukrainian city Kharkov, Igor Terekhov, said that “colossal” infrastructural damage had been inflicted by the strikes. The attack has “primarily affected the energy system,” the official claimed in a Telegram post.A similar account was provided by the Mayor of the southern Ukrainian city of Krivoy Rog, Alexander Vikul, who confirmed “several” missile strikes in that region. An “energy infrastructure” site has been “destroyed” by the attack, Vikul said in a Telegram post, without revealing the exact nature of the affected site. Ukraine’s largest private energy operator, DTEK, has also reported an attack on one of its sites, which ended up “seriously damaged” and disconnected from the grid. The site has been repeatedly subjected to missile attacks before, the company noted. Click here to read…

Apple said to start MacBook production at Foxconn’s Vietnam plant by mid-2023 in move to diversify supply chain outside China

Apple is reportedly relocating some production of MacBooks to Vietnam, a move that has been planned since 2020, with the initial batch of its popular laptop computers expected to roll out from the Southeast Asian country as early as May next year. Foxconn Technology Group, the world’s largest electronics manufacturing services provider, has been tapped by the US technology giant to assemble its MacBooks in Vietnam, according to a report on Dec 20 by Nikkei Asia Review. Before this move, the MacBook remained the only major Apple product that was solely manufactured in mainland China. It has taken longer to move MacBook assembly lines outside China owing to the product’s complex supply chain, the report said. In November 2020, Taiwan-based Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, was reportedly planning to move some iPad and MacBook assembly to Vietnam from China at the request of Apple because of the escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington. Foxconn had earlier announced a US$270 million investment to set up a new subsidiary in Vietnam. The new MacBook assembly lines are located at Foxconn’s plant in Vietnam’s north-eastern Bac Giang province, situated 50 kilometres to the east of the country’s capital Hanoi. As of June, Foxconn employed about 60,000 people in Vietnam, which is now the company’s largest manufacturing base outside China. Click here to read…

Europe rejects Chinese chip investments aimed at EV market

Chinese semiconductor companies looking to expand through acquisitions in Europe face an increasingly chilly reception from regulators wary of state-driven investment.The continent had been an attractive destination for Chinese players seeking to gain a foothold in supply chains in a leading market for electric vehicles. Direct investment in Europe by Chinese companies rebounded 34% in 2021 to 10.6 billion euros ($11.2 billion at current rates), with auto-related deals accounting for nearly a quarter, according to Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies. But a number of recent deals have been stymied by governments taking a harder line toward Beijing. German Economic Affairs Minister Robert Habeck cited the need to safeguard “technological and economic sovereignty” last month when Berlin vetoed the sale of a semiconductor plant in Dortmund to Sai Micro Electronics. The facility operated by Elmos Semiconductor produces 350-nanometer chips — far from the field’s leading edge. Germany had planned to approve the acquisition before changing its decision just before the end of the screening deadline. Sai, a midsize sensor maker, had hoped to add automotive semiconductor capacity with the Elmos deal. It has said it plans to continue pursuing the business. Berlin has also blocked a Chinese company from investing in local chipmaking equipment company ERS Electronic. Click here to read…

Pilot project in Shanghai to combine yuan/overseas currencies accounts into one

The Shanghai branch of the People’s Bank of China (PBC), China’s central bank, has launched a pilot project in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to allow firms to combine yuan and overseas currencies accounts into one, according to media reports on Dec 12. It’s the latest example of domestic cities carrying out such reforms in what experts said would be beneficial for enhancing account management efficiency and attracting overseas capital. A total of 242 business outlets from five financial institutions, including the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in the FTZ have participated in the project, according to Shanghai-based news portal Shanghai Observer. With the reform, companies in the Shanghai FTZ no longer need to set up different accounts for receiving or paying different currencies. The project is based on the yuan unit bank settlement account system and supports the settlement of multiple currencies, both local and overseas ones. Officials will strengthen the supervision and monitoring of local and foreign currency bank settlement accounts and implement coordinated supervision of those accounts. Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute of the Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said that overseas and yuan currency accounts were strictly separated in the past for fear of risks such as foreign currency shortages and capital outflows, but these are no longer problems in China. Click here to read…

China agrees to form global sovereign debt ’roundtable’: IMF chief

Chinese officials have agreed to form a global sovereign debt “roundtable” that would include a wide variety of stakeholders, including private sector creditors, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Dec 15. Georgieva told an event hosted by the IMF that she was feeling “a bit more optimistic” about the prospects for dealing with major debt issues facing low- and middle-income countries after high-level meetings with Chinese authorities last week. The IMF chief said last week she had a “fruitful exchange” with her Chinese counterparts on the need to accelerate debt relief for countries like Zambia and Sri Lanka, adding that she saw “space for a platform for more systematic engagement on debt issues, where China can play an active role. “On Dec 15, Georgieva said she had a “very constructive engagement” with Chinese leaders on the debt issue during her meetings after repeated calls for reforms to accelerate debt treatments under the Group of 20 common frameworks and expand it to include middle-income countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other Western officials have expressed mounting frustration about what they see as foot-dragging by China, now the world’s largest sovereign creditor, in providing relief under the G-20 framework. China has argued that private creditors and multilateral development banks should be required to accept debt “haircuts” to make the process fair. Click here to read…

Green hydrogen booms in Asia as companies rush into projects

The race to establish green hydrogen production bases in the Asia-Pacific region is heating up, with Western and regional companies cooperating on massive projects to produce what many see as a next-generation power source. Danish multinational Orsted, the world’s largest offshore wind power company, is considering entering the market, as are major Western oil companies.BP has become the largest shareholder in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, a huge Australian project, having made a 40.5% investment. With plans to produce up to 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year, the British multinational aims to acquire a 10% share of the world market. American multinational Chevron is collaborating with Indonesian oilcompany Pertamina and Keppel Corporation, a government-affiliated Singapore conglomerate, to investigate green hydrogen production using electricity obtained from geothermal power in Southeast Asia. It plans to produce 80,000 to 160,000 tonnes per year in the future. Hydrogen is used for petroleum refining and other purposes, but its use for power generation is expected to increase as the global decarbonization push gains momentum. In Asia, where manufacturing industries are concentrated, demand for hydrogen in the steelmaking and automobile industries is already rapidly increasing. China, the world’s largest hydrogen consumer, is aiming to take the lead in green hydrogen production. Large-scale projects are being launched, including the construction of a 20,000-tonne-a-year manufacturing plant by state-owned oil company Sinopec. Click here to read…

It’s official: The BOJ now owns more than half of Japan’s bonds

For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan holds just over half of all government-issued bonds, data released by the central bank on Dec. 19 reveals.Analysts have expressed growing alarm about the steady increase in the BOJ’s share of bonds over the past decade, which has been an extremely unusual development for a central bank of a major economy. They have pointed out that although the central bank is supposed to be an independent institution, its monetary policy has become effectively integrated into the government’s fiscal policy.The bank said as of the end of September, it owned 536 trillion yen ($3.93 trillion) of the government’s outstanding bond balance of 1,066 trillion yen. The share, now 50.26 percent, is up more than four-fold from the 11.48 percent it owned in 2013, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office. The bank began buying up massive amounts of bonds after its monetary easing policy started in April 2013 under Haruhiko Kuroda, a former senior official with the Finance Ministry, who took the helm as the BOJ governor with Abe’s backing. Its outstanding bond holdings have continued to balloon since it stuck to its guns on its monetary easing policy even as its foreign counterparts began raising interest rates this spring to fight inflation. Click here to read…

U.S. Delays Key Step for EV Subsidy Program After Foreign Pushback

The Biden administration on Dec 19 delayed proposing detailed rules for new tax incentives for electric vehicles, following strong pushback from European and Asian allies that the subsidy program discriminated against their companies. The Treasury Department said details on the battery-sourcing requirements that electric vehicles must meet to qualify for up to $7,500 in tax credit will be released in March, instead of by the end of this year as earlier planned. The department said, however, it will release “information on the anticipated direction” of the battery requirements before year-end to help manufacturers prepare to identify vehicles eligible for the tax credit. It didn’t specify what information would be made available then. The climate bill recently passed by the Senate could knock thousands of dollars off the sticker price of electric vehicles, but it’s also redefining which cars are eligible. The EV tax incentives, part of the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed into law in August, are designed to accelerate a transition to cleaner vehicles. To qualify for the full $7,500 in tax credit, vehicles must go through their final assembly in North America, a requirement that disqualifies many electric vehicles from non-U.S. car makers since they are typically assembled overseas. Click here to read…

Fairer investment rules will be a boost for developing economies

Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Dec 16 substantially concluded the text negotiations on Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD), the first negotiation topic set up and actively led by China in the WTO. It means there are “only steps away from concluding the first investment negotiation in the WTO and at a global level,” according to China’s Ambassador to the WTO Li Chenggang, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Dec 17. More than 110 WTO members signed and participated in the negotiation of the IFD, which shows that investment facilitation remains the consensus of most economies around the world and that promoting development through opening-up and cooperation remains the mainstream of the global economic development. An important change in globalization is that global sustainable development, including the development of developed economies, cannot be separated from the development of developing countries. In April 2017, China and a group of developing and least-developed WTO members launched an informal dialogue on investment facilitation, Xinhua reported, adding that the IFD agreement will encourage developing countries to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and create more job opportunities. The past few years saw developing countries, particularly Asian ones, attract increasing amounts of FDI. Yet, the chances of that upswing being interrupted are rising as a combination of pandemic and geopolitical factors have led to global economic slowdown and growing recession fears. Click here to read…

Strategic

9 Chinese warships spotted in East China Sea ahead of week-long joint drills with Russia

China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the East China Sea starting later this week, according to Russian media reports. A detachment of Russia’s Pacific Fleet had left the far eastern port of Vladivostok for the “Maritime Cooperation 2022” exercise with China from December 21 to 27, Sputnik News quoted the Ministry of Defence in Moscow as saying on Dec 19. The drills were to strengthen mutual naval cooperation as well as maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, a ministry statement said. “The Russian fleet at the exercise will be represented by [the] Pacific Fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, and [two] corvettes,” the ministry said. At least nine Chinese navy warships had earlier entered the western Pacific through various routes, according to the Japanese Defence Ministry. These included the aircraft carrier Liaoning and Type 055 guided-missile destroyer Lhasa, Tokyo said in statements over the weekend. It is not certain whether all nine will take part in the coming drills with Russia, but this year’s mobilisation appears to be larger than that for the last one. The Liaoning was spotted transiting from the East China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait, between Japan’s Miyako and Okinawa islands, Dec 16. It was escorted by the Type 055 destroyer 103 Anshan, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang, and the Type 901 supply ship Hulunhu. Click here to read…

Japanese FM eyes visit to China amid tense ties overshadowed by ‘aggressive defense strategy’

Japan’s foreign minister is reportedly eyeing his first visit to China in about three years, which Chinese observers believe will be a good sign for managing the differences on major and sensitive topics, including the Diaoyu Islands issue and Taiwan question. But considering Japan’s recent provocations, including calling China a “challenge” in its defense strategy, they remain cautious over the prospect of bilateral relations. On Dec 14, Japanese media outlet NHK learned that arrangements are being made for Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to travel to Beijing late this month to meet with Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The development came after Japan’s ruling coalition on Dec 12 agreed on a National Security Strategy update that calls China an “unprecedented strategic challenge,” laying the groundwork for bolstering the nation’s defense capabilities, Nikkei reported. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party reached an agreement on Dec 12 on the draft revisions of three security documents of “National Security Strategy,” “National Defense Strategy” and “Defense Force Preparedness Plan.” The 2013 version of Japan’s security strategy describes China’s actions as an “issue of concern,” while in this draft revision, China is labelled as an unprecedented “strategic challenge.” It was also written in the draft that Japan will possess the capability to launch counter-strikes against facilities such as missile-firing sites and other enemy targets. Click here to read…

U.S. to send officials to Taiwan for 2 years starting next fall

The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei. Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office. The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023. The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a non-profit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is “in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now,” Pearson said. Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Click here to read…

Iran Protests Create Lasting Challenge to Government, Security Officials Say

Western and Middle East security officials have concluded that a three-month-old Iranian protest movement represents a lasting drive for change that will challenge the foundations of the Islamic Republic but isn’t an immediate threat to the government in Tehran. The security officials said the protest movement’s durability was surprising, given how quickly the Iranian government put down demonstrations in 2009, 2017 and 2019. Protests erupted in September after the death of a young woman detained for allegedly violating Iran’s female dress code and quickly transformed into demands for the end of the Islamic system that has ruled the country for 43 years. In Israel, which is engaged in a long-running conflict with Iran, security officials have closely watched their archenemy struggle with the demonstrations. Israeli officials said they believe the unrest is likely to continue because protesters are focused fully on human rights and freedoms, rather than on economic anxieties. It is notable, the Israeli officials said, that the protesters have called for the end of the rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and not just for changes to the system. They said the dissenting voices of women, especially those from Mr. Khamenei’s family, including his sister, have had an outsize impact. “The regime has been shaken to its core,” one of the Israeli officials said. “Voices inside the regime understand things need to be done.” The Israeli officials emphasized that they couldn’t predict how and in what time frame events would unfold. Click here to read…

North Korea Launches Two Missiles, Adding to a Historic Year of Weapons Testing

North Korea launched two ballistic missiles off its east coast on Dec 18, adding to what has already been a historic year of weapons activity. The medium-range missiles flew roughly 310 miles and hit altitudes of about 340 miles, before splashing into the waters between Japan and the Korean Peninsula, according to Toshiro Ino, Japan’s vice defence minister. Mr. Ino noted the unprecedented frequency of Pyongyang’s provocations, adding they pose a threat regionally and to the international community. The launch helped evaluate the performance of components for a North Korean military-reconnaissance satellite, set to be completed by April 2023, Pyongyang’s state media said in a Dec 19 report. The “final-stage” test simulated a space environment, state media said, evaluating the performance of various video and photo cameras, control devices and batteries. North Korea has no space-based surveillance tools and has listed a spy satellite as a key pursuit. In prior years, the United Nations Security Council has condemned Pyongyang’s satellite launches, viewing them as ballistic-missile tests aimed at improving the country’s nuclear program. The Kim Jong Un regime has conducted more than 30 rounds of weapons tests in 2022—more than it has ever done in a single year by a wide margin. The activity has featured the country’s first long-range weapons test since 2017, a major provocation in lobbing a missile over Japan and new breakthroughs such as hypersonic technology. Click here to read…

Pakistan-Afghanistan ties fray as Taliban forces shell civilians

Pakistan’s relations with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan are deteriorating fast, after deadly attacks by Kabul’s forces in a disputed border area. On Dec 15, Pakistani media reported that shelling by Afghan troops had killed at least one and injured over a dozen residents near the border in Chaman, about 100 kilometers northwest of Quetta in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. This came after similar shelling Dec 11 killed at least seven civilians in the same area. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, said in parliament that eight or nine Afghan soldiers were killed when Pakistan’s forces retaliated over Dec 11’s attack. This was not confirmed by the Afghan side. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this week condemned the violence and tweeted that “the Afghan interim government should ensure that such incidents are not repeated” — a request that had little effect, judging from Dec 15’s renewed shelling. Experts say Islamabad — which is gripped by political and economic crises as well as rising insurgencies, including by the Pakistani branch of the Taliban — is so far limiting its response to avoid escalating the conflict.The hostilities kicked off when Afghan forces intervened as Pakistani troops carried out repairs near the border, according to reports. Analysts said the Taliban’s decision to target Pakistan’s civilian population reflects the fighters’ deeply ingrained guerrilla mindset. Click here to read…

Turkmenistan Is the Center Of A Geopolitical Tug Of War

Since gaining independence in 1991, Turkmenistan has attracted only sporadic attention due to its extreme level of isolation from the outside world, which rivals that of North Korea. As a result of this posturing, developments within the country fly under most radars. Ashgabat remains resolute in this position as it faces high levels of poverty and the threat of an Islamist insurgency from Afghanistan, which serve to spark fears that almost any change in the system might destabilize the situation. This is most likely because of Ashgabat’s much-ballyhooed policy of strict neutrality, a principle enshrined in that Central Asian country’s constitution that has kept it from joining either Moscow-led organizations, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), or Ankara-led ones, such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). But now all this seem likely to change, as Turkmenistan is becoming the object of intense geopolitical competition between outside powers, East and West, which want the country to become more closely linked to them, and Moscow, which hopes to maintain Turkmenistan’s neutrality to block that from happening. With a new president this year—Serdar Berdimuhamedov replaced his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in March 2022—Turkmenistan itself has become more active internationally. Click here to read…

‘Another go at Kyiv’: Ukraine expecting new Russian offensive early 2023

Ukrainian defence chiefs predicted Russia will launch a new offensive early next year that could include a second attempt to take the capital Kyiv, as Western allies stepped up their support with additional funding and military training.Moscow’s new offensive could happen as soon as January, President Volodymyr Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhny and General Oleksandr Syrskiy were quoted as saying in interviews with The Economist magazine on Dec 15. The push could be launched from the eastern Donbas area, the south or neighbouring Belarus, and could include another ground assault on Kyiv, which Moscow failed to capture early in the invasion, the officials said. “The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv,” Zaluzhny was quoted as saying.Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in remarks published in The Guardian on Dec 15 that evidence was mounting that Russia planned a broad new offensive. He speculated this could occur in February when half of the 300,000 troops conscripted by Russia in October to support the war would complete training. “The second part of the mobilisation, 150,000 approximately … do a minimum of three months to prepare. It means they are trying to start the next wave of the offensive probably in February, like last year. That’s their plan,” Reznikov told The Guardian. Click here to read…

Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at COP15

A UN deal aimed at reversing biodiversity loss and setting the world on a path of recovery has been adopted here early Dec 19 at the UN biodiversity conference, COP15. COP15, formally known as the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, is expected to conclude later on Dec 19 after nearly two weeks of negotiation. The deal is officially known as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. All parties have agreed on key issues, including goals and targets, resource mobilization and Digital Sequence Information, or GSI, under the framework. China holds the presidency of COP15. It held the phase-one meeting in Kunming, capital of southwest China’s Yunnan Province, in 2021. The second phase of COP15 in Montreal, Canada, continued the theme of “Ecological Civilization: Building a Shared Future for All Life on Earth.” Click here to read…

China invests $144 billion in water conservancy projects in 2022, setting new record

As of November 2022, China has invested more than 1 trillion yuan ($143.69 billion) in water conservancy construction across the country, representing a year-on-year increase of 33 percent, making it the largest annual capital investment since the People’s Republic of China was established in 1949, the Ministry of Water Resources (MRW) said on Dec 14. With a total of 40,312 projects this year, China’s water conservancy construction now accounts for 2.36 million jobs, of whom 1.96 million come from rural areas, while the sector buildup in many cases also help boost local tourism revenues. Water conservancy infrastructure plays an important role in securing China’s grain output. During the heat wave this summer, about 3,500 improved irrigated areas along the Yangtze River reduced the impact of severe drought and secured a bumper autumn grain harvest by irrigating 170 million mu (11.33 million hectares) in planting area, the state broadcaster CCTV reported on Dec 14. MWR has overseen 505 improvement projects covering mid- and large-scale irrigated areas, which are estimated to have added 3.7 million mu of new irrigated farmland. As of early December, total investment volume of irrigated area improvement reached 35.3 billion Yuan. The MRW has been enhancing water supply in rural areas with total investment of 91.8 billion yuan as of early December, creating 332,000 jobs and benefitting 74.49 million rural laborers. Click here to read…

Stronger support urged for Iraq to maintain stability, achieve comprehensive development

Participants attending the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership on Dec 20 called for stronger support for Iraq to help it maintain security and stability, and achieve comprehensive development.The conference, which was held in the Jordanian town of Sweimeh by the Dead Sea shore, was attended by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani and French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as leaders and officials from Arab states, the United Nations, Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and European Union. In the conference’s final declaration, participants stressed the need for more support for Iraq in the fields of energy, water, electrical connectivity, food and health security, transportation, infrastructure projects and climate protection.Reiterating their condemnation of extremism and terrorism in all forms, the participants also renewed their support for Iraq’s efforts to combat terrorism and achieve comprehensive development and economic integration in various sectors. At the conference’s opening on Dec 20, King Abdullah II of Jordan called for increased cooperation with Iraq to help the country continue its advance toward security, stability and prosperity.The king called for increased regional cooperation with Iraq to ensure a continued supply of energy and commodities, while stressing the need to address the climate change impacts at the regional level, said a statement by the Jordanian Royal Hashemite Court. Click here to read…

Taliban ban women from university education in Afghanistan

Hundreds of young women were stopped by armed guards on Dec 14 from entering Afghan university campuses; a day after the nation’s Taliban rulers banned them from higher education in another assault on human rights. Despite promising a softer rule when they seized power last year, the Taliban have ratcheted up restrictions on all aspects of women’s lives, ignoring international outrage. A team of Agence France-Presse journalists saw groups of students gathered outside universities in the capital, Kabul, barred from entering by armed guards and shuttered gates. Many, dressed in hijabs, were also seen standing in groups on roads leading to the campuses.“We are doomed. We have lost everything,” said one student, who asked not to be identified.“It really expresses their illiteracy and low knowledge of Islam and human rights,” said one, also asking not to be named. “If the situation continues like this the future will be worse. Everyone is scared.” Most private and government universities are closed for a few weeks over winter, although campuses generally remain open to students and staff. The decision to bar women from universities came late Dec 13 in a terse announcement from Neda Mohammad Nadeem, the Minister for Higher Education.“You all are informed to immediately implement the mentioned order of suspending education of females until further notice,” it said. Washington condemned the decision “in the strongest terms”. Click here to read…

Moscow reveals capabilities of new mobile ICBM launcher

Russia will commence the development of a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system next year, which will be a significant upgrade on the existing Yars system, Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) Commander Sergey Karakaev has said. The new platform will have increased mobility to facilitate “swift redeployment and launch from any region anywhere in the Russian Federation,” he told Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star), the official newspaper of the country’s military. Karakaev offered no further details about the new project. The interview was published on Dec 16, ahead of SMF Day, which will be celebrated on Dec 18.The SMF is the arm of the Russian military responsible for the country’s ground-based nuclear deterrence. It is currently “on the lookout for new technologies… which could be used to improve strategic weapon systems or create new ones,” Karakaev stated. The silo-based Sarmat ICBM, as well as the Avangard and Yars systems, are examples of what is possible through such research, he added. The general praised the Sarmat missile in particular, which he said was capable of evading any anti-ballistic missile system that could be fielded in the foreseeable future. Russia approved production of the rocket following a successful test launch in April. Earlier this week, the Defense Ministry showcased the rearmament of an SMF site in central Russia by releasing footage, which showed two Yars missiles being loaded into silos. The ICBM has silo-launched and road-mobile variants. Click here to read…

Bankrupt Sri Lanka holds breath for Paris Club’s China overture

As dollar-strapped Sri Lanka approaches the end of a grim economic year, officials in the South Asian nation are tuning in for encouraging signals from the Paris Club, a group of 22 wealthy countries that share debt relief deals. But a breakthrough hinges on a green light from top bilateral lender China, which is not a club member. Colombo-based diplomats and Europe-based financial insiders with knowledge of the Paris Club’s workings told Nikkei Asia that progress over the Sri Lanka question remains clouded. “No creditor committee work has started yet for Sri Lanka,” revealed a highly placed source familiar with the discussions in the French capital. Sri Lanka’s dependency on the Paris Club — headed by an official from the French Treasury — emerged in May after the Indian Ocean Island formally defaulted on its sovereign debt as it ran out of dollars. Colombo flagged the Paris Club, which dates back to the 1950s, as the best bet for successful negotiations to secure “assurances” from bilateral lenders needed to access a $2.9 billion bailout promised by the International Monetary Fund. The government has been hoping to unlock the money within this year, but the governor of Sri Lanka’s central bank acknowledged the talks could drag into 2023. Click here to read…

Health

COVID-19 global health emergency hopefully ends next year: WHO chief

The chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Dec 14 he hopes that COVID-19 will no longer be a global health emergency sometime next year.Addressing a press briefing in Geneva, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the WHO COVID-19 Emergency Committee will discuss next month the criteria for declaring an end to the COVID-19 emergency.”We’re hopeful that at some point next year, we will be able to say that COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency,” he said. He added, however, that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the culprit behind the COVID-19 pandemic, will not go away.” It’s here to stay, and all countries will need to learn to manage it alongside other respiratory illnesses including influenza and RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus), both of which are now circulating intensely in many countries,” he said. The WHO chief said one of the most important lessons from the pandemic is that all countries need to strengthen their public health systems to prepare for, prevent, detect and respond rapidly to outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. Another key lesson is the need for much stronger cooperation in collaboration, rather than competition and confusion that marked the global response to COVID-19. Click here to read…

China says it will only count Covid deaths from respiratory failure in official toll

China’s National Health Commission has clarified that only Covid-19 patients who die from respiratory failure will be counted towards the official death toll after this week reporting the first deaths since the easing of pandemic controls. Many elderly had other chronic illnesses and very few people died directly from respiratory failure caused by the coronavirus, experts from the NHC said. The clarification follows media reports that many more people had died after becoming infected and of rising demand at funeral homes and crematoriums. The commission has issued a notice clarifying how it is calculating the death toll from the disease in what it calls a “scientific and realistic manner”. The new guidelines narrow the criteria for counting Covid deaths, removing cases such as patients who had a heart attack after becoming infected. “Deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure resulting from Covid-19 will be classified as Covid deaths, while deaths caused by other underlying diseases, such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, will not be counted as Covid-induced deaths,” Wang Guiqiang, an adviser to the NHC and director of the infectious diseases department at Peking University First Hospital, said on Dec 20. China has seen cases skyrocket since it relaxed its zero-Covid policy, with the new rules allowing home quarantine for mild cases and encouraging residents to use rapid antigen test kits instead of PCR mass testing. Click here to read…

WHO sounds alarm over cholera vaccines

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that global stockpiles of cholera vaccines are “empty or extremely low” as outbreaks of the disease increase, and mortality rates rise.“We have no more vaccines. More countries are continuing to request [them] and it’s extremely challenging,” Dr. Philippe Barboza, WHO team lead for cholera and epidemic diarrhoeal diseases, said in Geneva on Dec 16. The UN health watchdog official described the situation as “quite unprecedented,” since not only are there more outbreaks, but “these outbreaks are larger and more deadly than the ones we have seen in past years.” According to the WHO, there has been an increase in cholera cases globally since 2021, when 23 countries were affected. The trend has continued this year, with 29 countries reporting cases and outbreaks of the disease. The WHO pointed out that, while cholera is preventable, a shortage of vaccines persists. It said that the sole producers, South Korea and India, were already at “maximum production” of 36 million shots per year. A South African manufacturer is planning to start production but the initiative will take “a few years” to materialize, Barboza said. In October, the WHO announced it would temporarily suspend its standard two-dose vaccine regime against cholera in an effort to conserve supplies. Click here to read…